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Post by mgoetze on May 6, 2015 8:08:04 GMT -5
Dave Cameron proposes that it would be smart for the Brewers to trade Jonathan Lucroy: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-case-for-trading-jonathan-lucroy/This doesn't mean they will, after all they're not smart, but what would you hypothetically offer? To get us started, my contribution to yesterday's FanGraphs chat: Comment From MichaelWho says no – Swihart and Moncada for Lucroy and K-Rod? Paul Swydan: I think Milwaukee, honestly. I’m sure they’d want more than that. Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is a fair trade.
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Post by jimed14 on May 6, 2015 8:51:42 GMT -5
I thought about Lucroy as soon as Hanigan got hurt, but didn't bring it up because I didn't think they would consider trading him. He'd be the catcher I'd want most.
But I'm also growing attached to Swihart after watching him for a few games.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2015 8:58:07 GMT -5
I haven't thought about it too much, but my initial reaction is that I'd happily give up Swihart+ (though probably not Moncada) for Lucroy.
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Post by mookiemagicfan on May 6, 2015 11:18:07 GMT -5
So you would offer our catcher of the future (compared to Buster p) and the guy that no one has seen play competitive ball yet (who we paid 60+million for)...which these 2 are apart of our future core...for lucroy...I mean he great...but guys...we have a website for just our prospects...who in the world values prospects greater than the RS. Haha.
I do get it though...we have no idea if Swihart will become what he is projected to be and Lucroy is already great. Plus a solid bp arm....it would have to be seriously considered.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 6, 2015 16:10:08 GMT -5
Lucroy is supposedly not for sale, but Beane said the same thing about Donaldson. These are two players that I would be (would have been in Donaldsons case) willing to include top prospects for. It makes sense that the Brewers trade Lucroy, and it also makes sense that they charge someone out the you know what for him too.
Moncada cost us 63M, that on top of Lucroy's salary if we pick up the option, the total salary cost straight lined over 3 years is 25M plus per year, that's before determining what Swihart's value would be (which would probably push him over the 40M mark theoretically). I wouldn't do that deal.
I wonder the Brewers thoughts (and the industries) on Bruan. They have 94M committed to him from 2016-2020.
If I'm the Brewers I sell everybody. They could make a killing with Lucroy and Gomes, and can probably get value for some of their other players too.
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Post by jimed14 on May 6, 2015 16:12:32 GMT -5
You can't really count the $63 million the same way for Moncada as actual salaries that count towards the luxury tax.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 6, 2015 17:07:44 GMT -5
I haven't thought about it too much, but my initial reaction is that I'd happily give up Swihart+ (though probably not Moncada) for Lucroy. Same. I think of Lucroy and see 2.5 years of being a good hitter, and a great defender. 28 years old. It has to depend on what we think of Swihart. If Lucroy is that big of an upgrade, I'd start kicking wheels harder. Swihart + Margot would be a more likely package than anything involving Moncada, who I doubt is traded, especially this year.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2015 17:33:13 GMT -5
Yeah, Swihart and Margot are exactly what I had in mind. If the Brewers trade Lucroy, they're probably also trading Gomez and going full rebuild.
Of course, Lucroy is good and cheap enough that if he were made available, teams like the Dodgers, Mets, or Cubs might be willing and able to beat that offer either with a better headlining prospect or with a better second piece.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 6, 2015 18:44:46 GMT -5
Yeah, Swihart and Margot are exactly what I had in mind. If the Brewers trade Lucroy, they're probably also trading Gomez and going full rebuild. Of course, Lucroy is good and cheap enough that if he were made available, teams like the Dodgers, Mets, or Cubs might be willing and able to beat that offer either with a better headlining prospect or with a better second piece. I see your thought, but I'll just counter this idea by team: Mets: They don't have a better headliner than Swihart. NS is very good, but Swihart is considerably less risky. Cubs: I don't think they'd trade Russell/Bryant. They're more likely to move Baez/Castro. I think Swihart trumps both of those guys as well at this point. When you add a guy like Margot, who is above Almora value-wise and who's service clock won't start soon, I think he'd be a great target for a rebuilding team. Soler is a good chip too if they're willing to move an OF (Schwarber could fill his hole eventually), but I think the Brewers might prefer someone who's service clock wasn't ticking. Dodgers: I'd assume Urias is untouchable. Seager would be a superior chip to Swihart, but they've had a revolving door at 3B for a long time, and I think they'd be happy with Seager at 3B and Grandal at C, rather than trading Seager+ for Lucroy, then having to make a 3B out of Grandal in trade. Dodgers would definitely e a possibility, but I don't see it without Seager involved. Swihart directly fills the hole of Lucroy and would be given the necessary time to adjust while the Brewers aren't competing. Margot is very high ceiling, and is far enough away from the MLB that the Brewers should be able to control him for a very long time. The Brewers and Red Sox match up nicely in comparison to those teams and their "available" prospects. I could of course be wrong about the Cubs/Dodgers' preferences, but that's how I see it. After thinking about it more, it's definitely something I hope we inquire about, even if they say he's not up for trade.
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Post by mgoetze on May 6, 2015 18:51:35 GMT -5
So you would offer our catcher of the future No, I didn't propose that we offer Vazquez.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2015 19:16:06 GMT -5
Mets: They don't have a better headliner than Swihart. NS is very good, but Swihart is considerably less risky. Cubs: I don't think they'd trade Russell/Bryant. They're more likely to move Baez/Castro. I think Swihart trumps both of those guys as well at this point. When you add a guy like Margot, who is above Almora value-wise and who's service clock won't start soon, I think he'd be a great target for a rebuilding team. Soler is a good chip too if they're willing to move an OF (Schwarber could fill his hole eventually), but I think the Brewers might prefer someone who's service clock wasn't ticking. Dodgers: I'd assume Urias is untouchable. Seager would be a superior chip to Swihart, but they've had a revolving door at 3B for a long time, and I think they'd be happy with Seager at 3B and Grandal at C, rather than trading Seager+ for Lucroy, then having to make a 3B out of Grandal in trade. Dodgers would definitely e a possibility, but I don't see it without Seager involved. Swihart directly fills the hole of Lucroy and would be given the necessary time to adjust while the Brewers aren't competing. Margot is very high ceiling, and is far enough away from the MLB that the Brewers should be able to control him for a very long time. The Brewers and Red Sox match up nicely in comparison to those teams and their "available" prospects. I could of course be wrong about the Cubs/Dodgers' preferences, but that's how I see it. After thinking about it more, it's definitely something I hope we inquire about, even if they say he's not up for trade. Mets: Syndergaard is at least of comparable value, and they could either choose to provide a stronger second/third piece (for instance, BA ranked Matz 33rd, Nimmo 45th, Herrera 46th, and Plawecki 63rd, all ahead of Margot (72)) or give up talent on the MLB club (deGrom, Wheeler). Cubs: Soler and Schwarber are both at least of similar value as Swihart. I think you're making too much of a deal of service time, but even that notwithstanding, Swihart's service time clock has started, too, so there's not much of a difference. Dodgers: with the emergence of Guerrero and the signing of Olivera, the Dodgers may be willing to give up Seager. We know that front office is willing to wheel and deal, and I could see a (three-way?) deal in which they give up Seager and Grandal and get back Lucroy and pitching. I'm not saying that the Red Sox don't have the inventory of prospects to compete with the above teams. I'm just saying that those teams can field at least comparable offers and are in a position where they might be willing to overpay for Lucroy, which means that if he's available, it might be at a price which is unpalatable.
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Post by whoareyoukarimgarcia on May 6, 2015 19:17:37 GMT -5
How is trading a catcher for a catcher filling a need? Last time I checked we had the worst ERA. If I am trading Swihart+ its still for pitching. We can have Salty for next to nothing, granted it would be a black hole at that position and improve in pitching. Vazquez is back next year, and Swihart+ should bring back a cost controlled pitcher. It is still Early May and Swihart has had what 15 AB's. I just hope that Craig can get enough AB's and looks good enough as a thrown in to a trade, so this Swihart trade talk becomes a moot point.
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Post by mgoetze on May 6, 2015 19:29:13 GMT -5
I just hope that Craig can get enough AB's and looks good enough as a thrown in to a trade, so this Swihart trade talk becomes a moot point. Craig could hit 10 homers this month while Swihart bats .200 and Craig still wouldn't have a tenth of Swihart's trade value.
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Post by whoareyoukarimgarcia on May 6, 2015 19:47:23 GMT -5
If a veteran and former AS hits 10 hr this month, he would have trade value. Not sure how much, but I also called him a throw in. Craig, if he is hitting is a know commodity. Margot is still a lottery ticket. With the second wild card, teams are going to hold on to their talent longer and longer then what we are use to in years past. That's why I can't see other teams as well as our own trading young talent unless it makes sense for now, and the future. That being said, most teams are evaluating their talent and are not likely to make a trade anytime soon. This is why Cole H keeps coming up, the Phils are already in sell mode where as other teams are no where near that level yet. This is a great time so see how Swihart can handle this level while maintaining the option to send him down for more at bats if they find a cheap veteran replacement.
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Post by ethanbein on May 7, 2015 7:11:45 GMT -5
We just had an open market bidding for a top 10 ish prospect in Moncada, and the bidding ended in the $60 million range. Swihart is right up there, so let's call him $60 million in present value surplus as well. Lucroy is under contract this year for 3M, next year for 4M, and then has a team option for 5.2M. He's hurt right now, so let's say he projects for 2.5 wins for the year (+ 1 framing), 3.5 next year (+ 1.5 framing), and 3 the next (+ 1.5 framing). That's conservative on his framing, and he was a 6 win player without it so maybe conservative overall. At $8 million per WAR, 5% inflation, and 8% surplus discounting, that puts him around $110 million total value, and about $87 million discounted surplus value. That's a little low for Swihart and Moncada, but Swihart and Margot would be right in that range, and if some team has a more aggressive projection it wouldn't be hard to see the bidding move into the Swihart + Moncada range, and I might be okay going there.
The Brewers are crazy for keeping him with the kind of prospect haul he could bring in. He's what Amaro wants Hamels to be. And I can't say the thought of a Lucroy/Vazquez catching tandem doesn't have me a little excited...
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Post by jimed14 on May 7, 2015 8:28:51 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on May 7, 2015 14:43:10 GMT -5
I wish somebody around here had a friend who's a Brewers fan and calls into sports talk radio.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 7, 2015 15:29:30 GMT -5
I wish somebody around here had a friend who's a Brewers fan and calls into sports talk radio. I can assure you that if you are a Brewers fan you have no friends.
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Post by mookiemagicfan on May 8, 2015 21:49:36 GMT -5
So you would offer our catcher of the future No, I didn't propose that we offer Vazquez. Well played sir. I think that the biggest loss this year was CV. I know one player doesn't make or break a team...but with his defensive prowess and pitch framming and game calling, I think him going down sort of signified the beginning of the end for the pitching staff this year.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 9, 2015 2:03:06 GMT -5
I wish somebody around here had a friend who's a Brewers fan and calls into sports talk radio. I guess you could talk to Felger, there's like a 5% chance he would know who Lucroy is. The other 95% odds are he would just make inaudible noises, then "fake homer take", "fake homer take", "that's the problem with you red sox fans". Followed by a high pitch, "You're right Mike!" " Gargle gargle"-Mazz
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jul 20, 2016 11:46:18 GMT -5
So, does anybody think that Trader Dave shocks the world and trades Devers and Swihart for Lucroy and a Brewers reliever? Just saw this possibility discussed in the Dave Cameron chat, so I thought this would be interesting to bring back up. A year ago, some thought Margot + Swihart would get it done, or at least a package focused around Swihart. Devers and Swihart seems similar to this.
I personally do not want this to happen since it would be selling low on Swihart (and I REALLY like Devers). But just throwing it out there...
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 20, 2016 12:25:00 GMT -5
Not me.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 20, 2016 12:48:15 GMT -5
Lucroy has injury issues, thus hasn't been that consistent. If it was Swihart and someone like Owens or Travis, I'd be for it. But he wouldn't come that cheap, and I'm holding onto Moncada and Devers if we aren't getting someone spectacular in return.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2016 12:53:46 GMT -5
So, does anybody think that Trader Dave shocks the world and trades Devers and Swihart for Lucroy and a Brewers reliever? Just saw this possibility discussed in the Dave Cameron chat, so I thought this would be interesting to bring back up. A year ago, some thought Margot + Swihart would get it done, or at least a package focused around Swihart. Devers and Swihart seems similar to this. I personally do not want this to happen since it would be selling low on Swihart (and I REALLY like Devers). But just throwing it out there... I hope not. I like Lucroy. Obviously he's what we hope Swihart turns into, but Lucroy is already 30 and has only one more year of control left, so that's a short-term type of deal considering Swihart has a lot of control still left, with the only question being can he be a passable defensive catcher. If he becomes a passable defensive catcher then you're giving up about 5 years of control and a decent bat that could develop into something more. The rest of the deal beyond 1.5 years of Lucroy in his prime versus 5 years of Swihart entering his prime is giving up Devers for a reliever. I like the Brewers' relievers (but they're no Craig Kimbrel ), and frankly I like Devers as a prospect better than I liked Margot. I wouldn't give up a middle of the order potential all-star caliber power bat for a reliever.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 20, 2016 19:52:14 GMT -5
Doesn't it make more sense for Cleveland to go all out to get lucroy?
Given that Cleveland is down to Perez starting now, it just seems like lucroy would be one they can not afford to let get away.
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