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Post by James Dunne on Jan 2, 2013 12:52:11 GMT -5
The "if Cecchini keeps getting on base at a .390+ clip" is a pretty huge qualifier though. There are so few third baseman than steal 25+ bases because there are so few players who provide the necessary offense to play that position, AND are fast/quick enough to steal that many bases. In that vein, there are legitimate questions about whether Cecchini will hit enough - he struggles with lefties and he hit only four home runs. He won't keep walking as much unless he generates more power or can consistently hit .320. As a .350 OBP player, what is he? a .280/.350/.400 isn't really a plus major league third baseman, even if he steals 25.
Cecchini's progress hitting left-handed pitchers and generating more power are much more important to his development path than how many bases he's stealing.
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Post by jioh on Jan 2, 2013 13:29:28 GMT -5
..., there are legitimate questions about whether Cecchini will hit enough - he struggles with lefties and he hit only four home runs. He won't keep walking as much unless he generates more power or can consistently hit .320. As a .350 OBP player, what is he? a .280/.350/.400 isn't really a plus major league third baseman, even if he steals 25..... 14 3b qualifed for the batting title with an OPS of 750 last year. A cost-controlled 3b who gets on base at a 350 rate with modest power and steals 25 bases is a major asset. A 750 OPS with fewer walks and more power would not be a surprise from Middlebrooks, though he looked better than that in 2012.
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Post by bosox81 on Jan 2, 2013 13:35:05 GMT -5
The "if Cecchini keeps getting on base at a .390+ clip" is a pretty huge qualifier though. There are so few third baseman than steal 25+ bases because there are so few players who provide the necessary offense to play that position, AND are fast/quick enough to steal that many bases. In that vein, there are legitimate questions about whether Cecchini will hit enough - he struggles with lefties and he hit only four home runs. He won't keep walking as much unless he generates more power or can consistently hit .320. As a .350 OBP player, what is he? a .280/.350/.400 isn't really a plus major league third baseman, even if he steals 25. Cecchini's progress hitting left-handed pitchers and generating more power are much more important to his development path than how many bases he's stealing. I'm not arguing speed is what will get Cecchini to the majors. All I'm saying, based on the research done in the link I provided, is that IF he gets to the majors, speed (or simply ability to steal 25+ bases) will be just another positive asset and a rare one at that.
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Post by jmei on Jan 2, 2013 13:48:49 GMT -5
To add to that, in 2012, third basemen collectively hit .266/.327/.427 with 6.5 SB per 600 PAs. A .280/.350/.400 line along with 25 efficient stolen bases would be above-average offensively and would roughly land Cecchini in the range of the top 10 hitting 3B (Alex Rodriguez hit .272/.353/.430 in 2012 and was 8th among 3B in wRC+, whereas Youkilis was at .235/.336/.409 and was 13th).
That said, James' broader point stands that handling southpaws and translating his plus batspeed into in-game power are much more important developmental needs for Cecchini than the stolen bases. Other areas to watch include his defense at 3B (good potential but middling performance so far) and his ability to stay healthy (as a 22-year-old in high-A, he isn't terribly age advanced and needs to avoid further setbacks in his development).
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 2, 2013 14:02:40 GMT -5
..., there are legitimate questions about whether Cecchini will hit enough - he struggles with lefties and he hit only four home runs. He won't keep walking as much unless he generates more power or can consistently hit .320. As a .350 OBP player, what is he? a .280/.350/.400 isn't really a plus major league third baseman, even if he steals 25..... 14 3b qualifed for the batting title with an OPS of 750 last year. A cost-controlled 3b who gets on base at a 350 rate with modest power and steals 25 bases is a major asset. A 750 OPS with fewer walks and more power would not be a surprise from Middlebrooks, though he looked better than that in 2012. Only 18 3B qualified for the batting title last year, so I'm not sure I agree with this. If it were a .750 OPS combined with plus defense, I suppose that's enough offense to be valuable (a la Brett Lawrie), but it's a below average offensive third baseman. I'm not pigeonholing Cecchini as a .750 OPS player though - his perfect world projection is better than that. EDIT: Jmei, I think using the average overall 3B production to determine what the average starter should it is a bit crude, because most backup third basemen are middle infielders, and huge offensive dropoffs from the starter. There were 24 third basemen with 400 PA. Among those players, the median OBP was .342, and the median SLG was .449.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 2, 2013 14:34:46 GMT -5
In terms of value on the basepaths, Chase Utley is a big, athletic IF with excellent baserunning metrics -- he has averaged about 5 BsR (so 0.5 fWAR?) per year, without only moderate/modest SB numbers. If Cecchini can produce that, it's a big deal.
You know another Sox 3B prospect who only had 4 HR - each of his two years in the system? Jeff Bagwell. So there you go.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jan 2, 2013 14:45:01 GMT -5
Ryan Kalish had surgery in his wrist/Hamet-bone while he was with Lowell and then proceeded to hit 5 HR the next year in Greenville before hitting 13 in AA the year after.
Point is that it takes a while before your power comes back after wrist/hamate-bone surgery. Next year we'll see more of his power and then you can start to make a real assessment of his power.
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Post by jioh on Jan 2, 2013 17:14:23 GMT -5
In terms of value on the basepaths, Chase Utley is a big, athletic IF with excellent baserunning metrics -- he has averaged about 5 BsR (so 0.5 fWAR?) per year, without only moderate/modest SB numbers. If Cecchini can produce that, it's a big deal. You know another Sox 3B prospect who only had 4 HR - each of his two years in the system? Jeff Bagwell. So there you go. I was going to cite Bagwell but he was playing in a giant park and had much better offensive stats
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Post by Chris Mellen on Jan 2, 2013 19:16:16 GMT -5
Garin Cecchini has raw power and the swing path. The raw isn't on the level of Xander Bogaerts or Bryce Brentz as examples, but it is there. He's the tricky type to project because he isn't a big huge raw power guy or one without any power. Those guys typically stand out pretty quickly. Cecchini's type requires a lot of studying, watching for development clues, etc. Sometimes they end up hitting home runs and sometimes they don't.
A batter doesn't necessarily have to be good at hitting to hit a lot of home runs, but typically a good big league hitter with enough natural power and leverage will hit home runs. Cecchini has to work on creating a little more leverage and staying balanced during his stride, but I think he has the power to hit 20 home runs in the peak, maybe a little more or less, depending on home ballpark.
The hit tool is definitely there. And, the continued honing of differentiating pitches and learning his strike zone are the keys to developing into a good hitter. That's what will be interesting to scout, for me on 2013, as the level of competition rises to gage where they are. I thought they were a bit on the weaker side when I saw him this year, but obviously room for growth.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 2, 2013 19:17:05 GMT -5
Mentioning Bags was just a bit of mischief.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2013 19:43:23 GMT -5
This guy is one of my binkies. If he can sustain the relative OBP and give you 20HRs I'd trade him for Middlebrooks any day (or move MBrooks to 1st). And yes, I like Middlebrooks.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 2, 2013 21:45:00 GMT -5
This guy is one of my binkies. If he can sustain the relative OBP and give you 20HRs I'd trade him for Middlebrooks any day (or move MBrooks to 1st). And yes, I like Middlebrooks. I'm with you. Cecchini is one of my binkies too and I'm hoping he becomes a core member of the Sox by 2015. The only thing I'd disagree with you on is moving WMB to 1b. I don't think he'd be an asset offensively as a 1b. I'd prefer he remain at 3b. I think it's more likely that Cecchini could wind up in LF or RF. I'm hopeful that his Slugging Average will be higher than the conservative forecasts and I do think he'll be an on-base asset. I could see him batting 2nd or 5th. And yes, he might be able to churn out 20 - 25 SB as a major leaguer, too.
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Post by brendan98 on Jan 3, 2013 11:14:57 GMT -5
Am I the only one who sees a long swing watching Cecchini, I do not see any mention of it on his player page, but he does not get enough separation between his lower half and upper half, which causes his hands to commit early, and is almost certainly the reason behind his struggles vs LHP. It is not a terribly difficult adjustment to fix it (I've helped plenty of HS kids with the exact same issue) but it is somewhat concerning that it has not been addressed up to this point, especially with him coming from a baseball family, I would have thought his father would have corrected it long ago.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 3, 2013 12:07:48 GMT -5
I'd actually like to see Cecchini play a little first base this year. He definitely does not fit the proto-typical mold for 1st, but it would be beneficial for him to be able to play both corners.
With respect to Middlebrooks, if it gets that far, move the worse 3rd baseman to first. One great thing about Youk was his versatility.
I've seen Garin several times, and I also believe he has the potential to get to Boston, but he needs to mature physically some and soften his weaknesses like everyone. I'd be surprised if he doesn't figure out lefties in the next year so he is satisfactory. He is a smart player and he seems to work at his game like a professional.
I could see him as a break-out candidate this year.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jan 3, 2013 13:07:30 GMT -5
I'd actually like to see Cecchini play a little first base this year. He definitely does not fit the proto-typical mold for 1st, but it would be beneficial for him to be able to play both corners. Can I get your thought process behind this potential move, because I've seen it on another message board as well? Why would you move a potential average to slightly above average 3B to the lowest defensive position on the diamond... especially a player that doesn't look to have the power for 3B, let alone 1B? Wouldn't he be more valuable as a first division 3B or a average corner OF? Let me understand the Cecchini to 1B argument...
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Post by remember04 on Jan 3, 2013 13:46:41 GMT -5
I'd actually like to see Cecchini play a little first base this year. He definitely does not fit the proto-typical mold for 1st, but it would be beneficial for him to be able to play both corners. Can I get your thought process behind this potential move, because I've seen it on another message board as well? Why would you move a potential average to slightly above average 3B to the lowest defensive position on the diamond... especially a player that doesn't look to have the power for 3B, let alone 1B? Wouldn't he be more valuable as a first division 3B or a average corner OF? Let me understand the Cecchini to 1B argument... If they both pan out nicely I think you're better off trading which ever one improves the team the most by bringing back an equal talent level 1B via trade from a team has more than one and could use a 3B.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 3, 2013 13:51:26 GMT -5
This year will be interesting for Cecchini. I still think the lingering hand/wrist injury was limiting him to some degree last year. Perhaps even some lost development time from missing so much time the year before.
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Post by larrycook on Jan 3, 2013 15:09:19 GMT -5
This year will be interesting for Cecchini. I still think the lingering hand/wrist injury was limiting him to some degree last year. Perhaps even some lost development time from missing so much time the year before. I saw Greenville play several times this past year, and I did not see anything even remotely resembling power. If he is what he is, high OBP - no power batter, does that change you guys opinion of him and waht position he projects to?
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Post by jmei on Jan 3, 2013 15:26:43 GMT -5
It's pointless to speculate about positional logjams when we're talking about a player who is starting Salem in 2013. Remember when we had that huge logjam at 1B and Lars needed to get LF reps and Rizzo/Head were expendable? These things have a way of working themselves out. It is at least two years too early to start speculating whether we need to move Cecchini to 1B.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 3, 2013 15:52:13 GMT -5
I saw Greenville play several times this past year, and I did not see anything even remotely resembling power. 46 extra base hits and nothing remotely resembling power?
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Post by remember04 on Jan 3, 2013 17:17:48 GMT -5
I saw Greenville play several times this past year, and I did not see anything even remotely resembling power. 46 extra base hits and nothing remotely resembling power? Also wrist injuries take a while to recover from. Just ask Big Papi.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jan 3, 2013 17:22:35 GMT -5
I saw Greenville play several times this past year, and I did not see anything even remotely resembling power. 46 extra base hits and nothing remotely resembling power? You are scouting the boxscore a little, no? I think the poster is remarking on his in-game and future power tool. The doubles output a minor leaguer displays - mitigated by their power ceiling - may not translate to MLB.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 3, 2013 17:45:49 GMT -5
You are scouting the boxscore a little, no?. Perhaps the doubles and triples were mainly bloops or line drives into gaps or ground balls down the line, and if so, larrycook can elaborate. But the comment strained credulity considering Cecchini's present success as an XBH machine and scouting indicating moderate power potential.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 3, 2013 18:23:37 GMT -5
I'd actually like to see Cecchini play a little first base this year. He definitely does not fit the proto-typical mold for 1st, but it would be beneficial for him to be able to play both corners. Can I get your thought process behind this potential move, because I've seen it on another message board as well? Why would you move a potential average to slightly above average 3B to the lowest defensive position on the diamond... especially a player that doesn't look to have the power for 3B, let alone 1B? Wouldn't he be more valuable as a first division 3B or a average corner OF? Let me understand the Cecchini to 1B argument... Sure. Not sure Garin, if he stays with the organization, is going to have enough power to work his way past Middlebrooks. Him being able to play both corners may allow him to have a bigger impact with US. And the other thing is we have no viable positional players coming up through the pipeline I want to play everyday at 1st base (not sold on Shaw) at this moment. I like his approach and he may have a better chance to help us if he is able to play several positions. Is he the usual 1st baseman type? No. But he can be a valuable player for us, but only (in my thinking) if he can help us in several positions.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jan 4, 2013 18:39:06 GMT -5
Hmm, it reads like you may be suggesting a super utility player like a la David Murphy.
He may be best as a trade then, because of the way managers use benches than lean heavy on relievers.
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