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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 25, 2015 13:26:37 GMT -5
I don't think what you wrote conflicted with what I wrote. Four RPs developed over the past 15 years is not a sterling record, particularly when two of them flamed out - although I don't know what happened to Delcarmen. Just when he was reaching his peak years he went into decline. I think the Sox have made a significant error in treating the BP as fungible. Teams with really good BPs don't do that. Yes, there always is some turnover. Many RPs have up and down careers. However, the really good ones don't. The Sox just haven't had many really good ones in a while. The pen right now is the best it has been in a couple of years, but it could be better. Eh, the Red Sox have developed three of the top 30 relievers in fWAR since 2012, so it's not like they haven't been pulling their weight. I could keep going with the solid bullpen arms who are alums of this system-- think Josh Fields, Alex Wilson, Chris Martin, Ryan Pressly, Hunter Strickland, etc. I wouldn't say that they have an especially poor track record of developing relievers. I also think you're grossly overestimating the number of consistently elite relief pitchers in the majors. There are only four relievers who have put up a combined 6+ fWAR from 2012-2014, for instance. Take a look at the fWAR reliever leaderboard from 2011-- Of the top ten, you have four guys who basically aren't in the league anymore (Sean Marshall, John Axford, Joel Hanrahan, Mike Adams), and only one of those is older than 33, so it's not purely because of age. Finally, as was mentioned above, the elite Royals bullpen consists of a couple reclamation projects, a couple converted starters, and Greg Holland. They built an elite bullpen precisely by treating it as fungible and finding reclamation projects like Wade Davis and Luke Hochevar. The best bullpen in the league this year, the Dodgers' bullpen, have Kenley Jansen and a bunch of cheap pickups. This is a terrific example of how to win an argument with a reasoned approach. I concede. I concluded that before I read your examples. I found an MLB piece about a month ago listing the top ten bullpens. And after going through each of them, it was obvious you were right. I still am not comfortable with WAR as a rating for pitchers, but even if it isn't used, the facts don't change, just perhaps the ratings of various pitchers. I read fangraph's long pieces about WAR and replacement level and they point out that WAR for pitchers is a little dicey and still undergoing refinement. In fact, they are supposed to have a new explanation sometime soon. The problem that I see is that it doesn't take into consideration the situations in which relief pitchers are used. There should be some kind of weighting for the situation and the result achieved. For example, coming into a game with no one on base and giving up a couple of hits but no runs is statistically worse than coming into a game with the bases loaded and giving up just one hit, but the result is much worse in the bases loaded situation. And I don't think the averaging out approach works because different situations often require different kinds of pitchers. For example, a pitch-to-contact RP may be really good for bases empty, multiple innings use, but not for a bases-loaded no outs situation. So it is awfully complicated to try to do a general rating of pitchers and I am not sure it is possible to do just one.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 9, 2015 13:24:47 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 2m2 minutes ago Sources: Red Sox promoting RHP Pat Light to Pawtucket. Dominant in move to bullpen this year: 32 K, .168 BAA in 29.2 IP for Portland.
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 9, 2015 13:27:13 GMT -5
Good for Pat Light. Hopefully he keeps dominating at AAA and we may well have another power arm in our pen by the end of the year.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 9, 2015 14:15:40 GMT -5
I always liked Pat Light and I'm happy he is finding success in the bullpen now. I remember reading somewhere that the Red Sox got the best fastballs in the draft two years in a row (Barnes and Light) but don't remember where I read that or the legitimacy of it. Anyway, with some continued success I hope to see Light on the front page of this site by EOY.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 9, 2015 14:29:35 GMT -5
Good for Pat Light. Hopefully he keeps dominating at AAA and we may well have another power arm in our pen by the end of the year. Exactly what I'm thinking/hoping for! Hopefully his stuff is still dominating in Pawtucket and we give him a chance in August.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 9, 2015 16:36:40 GMT -5
Looks like he is on track to make the big club in a couple months.
I just hope Craig Breslow doesn't last that long.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 9, 2015 17:30:46 GMT -5
Looks like he is on track to make the big club in a couple months. I just hope Craig Breslow doesn't last that long. So AAA is just a 2-month pit stop on the way to Boston? I think he needs to show something there. They won't promote him unless he's ready. He's not a prodigy that getting a quick stop in AAA. He'll be challenged by more refined hitters in AAA. We'll see how he does. Boston could certainly use that power arm in the pen.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2015 17:37:20 GMT -5
Well, the entire Pawtucket bullpen is full of guys who could potentially be MLB relievers (seriously, it's by far the best bullpen I've seen them have on any team in the 10 years I've been doing this). Ross, Hinojosa, Spruill, and Hembree are all on the 40-man, remember, as is Cornely, who is now in Portland for some reason though, so maybe he's a DFA candidate.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 9, 2015 18:29:49 GMT -5
Looks like he is on track to make the big club in a couple months. I just hope Craig Breslow doesn't last that long. So AAA is just a 2-month pit stop on the way to Boston? I think he needs to show something there. They won't promote him unless he's ready. He's not a prodigy that getting a quick stop in AAA. He'll be challenged by more refined hitters in AAA. We'll see how he does. Boston could certainly use that power arm in the pen. Obviously he needs to show something in Pawtucket. That's the only way any prospect ever makes the majors.
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Pat Light
Jun 9, 2015 19:55:46 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Jun 9, 2015 19:55:46 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 2m2 minutes ago Sources: Red Sox promoting RHP Pat Light to Pawtucket. Dominant in move to bullpen this year: 32 K, .168 BAA in 29.2 IP for Portland. Those are BIG numbers. If he mows 'em down in Pawtucket, I imagine they'd give him a look in the majors, since they're going to want to know what they have before making 40-man roster decisions. Even if the K rate isn't especially spectacular, the BAA is. Might be nice to get some splitter advice from Tazawa and Koji, who both have good ones.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 9, 2015 23:46:37 GMT -5
Too late now, but man.. It would have been nice to have had him in MLB camp to get him around both Taz and Koji, just for that alone back in April. of course nobody knew he would have taken off, yet still..
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Pat Light
Jun 10, 2015 5:22:32 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by moonstone2 on Jun 10, 2015 5:22:32 GMT -5
Well, the entire Pawtucket bullpen is full of guys who could potentially be MLB relievers (seriously, it's by far the best bullpen I've seen them have on any team in the 10 years I've been doing this). Ross, Hinojosa, Spruill, and Hembree are all on the 40-man, remember, as is Cornely, who is now in Portland for some reason though, so maybe he's a DFA candidate. But couldn't you argue that Light is better than all of those guys? from the scouting report it seems he is.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 10, 2015 5:55:41 GMT -5
Well, the entire Pawtucket bullpen is full of guys who could potentially be MLB relievers (seriously, it's by far the best bullpen I've seen them have on any team in the 10 years I've been doing this). Ross, Hinojosa, Spruill, and Hembree are all on the 40-man, remember, as is Cornely, who is now in Portland for some reason though, so maybe he's a DFA candidate. None of those guys gives me shivers. They are perfect AAA guys but I don't see a one that would be a real good, reliable, bullpen arm. It is somewhat amazing that Pawtucket with a decent pen, very good starters and a rep as having one of the best milb teams going in, is 3 games sub .500. Truth is they hit like their parent....with apologies to JBJ.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 10, 2015 6:46:45 GMT -5
I saw Light as another Carter Capps think is the thing Chris. Develop him as a reliever straight out of college and focus on coming into games with one pitch, other than a upper 90's FB. It worked out ok for Bard until the mechanics and velocity fell apart and hoped it would for Light. Capps, hopefully will still be able to help the Marlins. He's been dealing with that dreaded "elbow sprain" off an on since being traded to the Fish. Regardless. Throwing 97+ doesn't make a pitcher unhittable of course, but toss in an average secondary pitch, like Bard's slider was and it makes that person a potent weapon in the pen. That's the kind of guy would like to see Light become, rather than some guy who turns into the next 40 man roster casualty. "Average"
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 10, 2015 7:17:23 GMT -5
And then he could always just learn the sideways ball like Bard too.
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Pat Light
Jun 10, 2015 7:35:11 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by jrffam05 on Jun 10, 2015 7:35:11 GMT -5
And then he could always just learn the sideways ball like Bard too. Wow I don't remember this, at 99 that's one of the dirtiest pitches I've ever seen.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 10, 2015 7:41:19 GMT -5
And then he could always just learn the sideways ball like Bard too. Wow I don't remember this, at 99 that's one of the dirtiest pitches I've ever seen. Yeah that wasn't fair. I still can't fathom how someone so good fell off so quickly.
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Pat Light
Jun 10, 2015 8:21:35 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Jun 10, 2015 8:21:35 GMT -5
I saw Light as another Carter Capps think is the thing Chris. Develop him as a reliever straight out of college and focus on coming into games with one pitch, other than a upper 90's FB. It worked out ok for Bard until the mechanics and velocity fell apart and hoped it would for Light. Capps, hopefully will still be able to help the Marlins. He's been dealing with that dreaded "elbow sprain" off an on since being traded to the Fish. Regardless. Throwing 97+ doesn't make a pitcher unhittable of course, but toss in an average secondary pitch, like Bard's slider was and it makes that person a potent weapon in the pen. That's the kind of guy would like to see Light become, rather than some guy who turns into the next 40 man roster casualty. "Average"Lol..."average" slider and a solid fastball. Btw...a 99mph screwball?!?! What a bummer Bard's implosion was, and still is.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2015 9:20:37 GMT -5
Well, the entire Pawtucket bullpen is full of guys who could potentially be MLB relievers (seriously, it's by far the best bullpen I've seen them have on any team in the 10 years I've been doing this). Ross, Hinojosa, Spruill, and Hembree are all on the 40-man, remember, as is Cornely, who is now in Portland for some reason though, so maybe he's a DFA candidate. But couldn't you argue that Light is better than all of those guys? from the scouting report it seems he is. Yeah, I'd say he is (that's why we have him ranked as such), although it's not like he's extraordinarily better. My point is more that it's not like Pawtucket is some relief pitching wasteland right now that he should tear through and go up to Boston next week. They'll likely let him go through his paces there a little bit. I do think Light gets a look this year if things go right. One oddity I wanted to point out though, is that he didn't strike anyone out in his last 4 AA games, which were an inning each. Not saying it means anything, just... weird.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 10, 2015 10:33:47 GMT -5
To me this is a great weapon to have. I feel bullpen help was getting out of control on the open market. Why not direct you resources elsewhere? I said this before it is one of the things the MFY's do good. I feel there is a belief that it's embarrassing to flip your starters to the pen to me it's smart to turn a negative a prospect who doesn't pan out as a starter and put him in the bullpen save money in some cases he has his options .
One more thing about bullpen arms , teams give three year deals to these guys and time and time again one year they kick ass and the next one they struggle but your tied in. So you eliminate this.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 10, 2015 22:37:02 GMT -5
Soxfanatic.. That was one of his good slurvy sliders, not Bard's normal floaters. I also liked Bard, don't get me wrong. Throwing 97-100mph and getting ANYTHING else over the plate allowed Bard to get away with his balloon slurve.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 16, 2015 0:07:11 GMT -5
Soxfanatic.. That was one of his good slurvy sliders, not Bard's normal floaters. I also liked Bard, don't get me wrong. Throwing 97-100mph and getting ANYTHING else over the plate allowed Bard to get away with his balloon slurve. No, it was a 99 mph two-seamer with insane movement (armside run and sink relative to 4-seamer). There was nothing floater-y, or balloon-ish about Bard's slider. Compared to his 4-seamer, it broke 10" down and 13" away. On an absolute basis, 1" down and 8" away. Definitely a slurve, but at 84-85 mph, a very nasty one.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 16, 2015 9:09:52 GMT -5
Chaz Fiorino Chaz Fiorino Jun 14 #RedSox Pat Light electric stuff out of pen. FB 95-96,T98 w/ a 70 grade split at 85-87.1ip, 2K's. Picked up 1st K on 3-2 splitter; filthy. 70 grade splitter is Tanaka territory.
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Post by jmei on Jun 16, 2015 9:23:52 GMT -5
If his splitter was always that good, I'm surprised and mildly pleased that they made him go away from it for so long to work on his other pitches, even if that ultimately did not result in him developing an above-average third pitch or sticking as a starter.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 16, 2015 10:40:32 GMT -5
70 grade splitter is Tanaka territory. Not as good as Uehara, then?
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