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5/25-5/27 Red Sox @ Twins Series Thread
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 13:39:43 GMT -5
I think that's a mistake. So what happens if Rodriguez bombs? Then you're stuck in a corner. You're always so against the Red Sox strategy of hoarding depth, but now that a legit prospect is making a push and an unproven veteran isn't really nailing down his spot, you're terrified of losing that depth? Brian Johnson is still around, Henry Owens has been pitching better (albeit with too many walks to make me comfortable), I'm pretty happy with Wright in the rotation long term. Plus there are out-of-organization options. If the team thinks Rodriguez is ready then they should promote him. From there it's just a matter of whether he should replace Kelly or Wright. There are fair arguments for either. Also, using someone athletic like Kelly (or Masterson, for that matter, or Wright) as a swingman is probably a good use of his skills. Players used to move between the bullpen and rotation pretty frequently up until 15-20 years ago. EDIT: Perhaps the idea needs to be reframed. Instead of thinking of it as Kelly losing his spot in the rotation and Rodriguez being next in line, suppose the Red Sox feel strongly that Rodriguez is very good and ready to contribute right now. Has Joe Kelly done anything to make you think he should stand in the way? His inputs are, at best, average. So even if the outputs catch up with that, the idea that Rodriguez is a better pitcher isn't crazy. We've discussed this pretty extensively, but I don't think Kelly is nearly as bad as his results. He used to have an ERA far below his FIP before this year. He's pitching better now than when he was when his ERA was 2 runs lower.
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Post by thursty on May 26, 2015 13:54:27 GMT -5
Joe Kelly's game yesterday had a 12.74 FIP and a 9.11 xFIP; it lacks credibility for those who completely buy into DIPS and yet conclude that he pitched well yesterday. It appears that a whole new theory of pitching is being promulgated here: RSPARGDATE.
And I watched the condensed version of the game; the notion that only 1 or 2 hits were legitimate is risible; not all "ground ball" hits are "lucky" - the Twins squared him up consistently. It was the Red Sox who were lucky (both Napoli's hits, 1 each for Pedroia and Mookie were soft)
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 13:58:14 GMT -5
I never said he pitched well yesterday. I said he didn't deserve to give up 7 runs and only get 5 outs. There is a middle ground. Wade Miley pitched no better the game before.
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Post by thursty on May 26, 2015 14:03:32 GMT -5
I never said he pitched well yesterday. I said he didn't deserve to give up 7 runs and only get 5 outs. There is a middle ground. Wade Miley pitched no better the game before. Miley 24 May: 3.02 FIP, 4.58 xFIP
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 14:12:57 GMT -5
I never said he pitched well yesterday. I said he didn't deserve to give up 7 runs and only get 5 outs. There is a middle ground. Wade Miley pitched no better the game before. Miley 24 May: 3.02 FIP, 4.58 xFIP Game by game FIPs are pointless. Let's say the popup and first two ground balls were outs in the 2nd inning and Kelly has a 1-2-3 2nd inning. That happens a lot when pitchers give up a pop fly and 2 ground balls.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 26, 2015 14:17:32 GMT -5
I didn't see the game but I followed it on the radio and with Gameday. It seemed to me that Kelly tried to throw too hard once again. He can hit some high numbers but those balls get hit back at him. He has been more effective throwing his FB around 95 and mixing it well with his other pitches. Of course, once again his command wasn't too good. I think his talent is so exceptional that he is worth sending out there regularly for a while yet. If he gets things in sync he is the best pitcher the Sox have.
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 14:29:40 GMT -5
I didn't see the game but I followed it on the radio and with Gameday. It seemed to me that Kelly tried to throw too hard once again. He can hit some high numbers but those balls get hit back at him. He has been more effective throwing his FB around 95 and mixing it well with his other pitches. Of course, once again his command wasn't too good. I think his talent is so exceptional that he is worth sending out there regularly for a while yet. If he gets things in sync he is the best pitcher the Sox have. His command was fine. He only walked one batter and wasn't missing the catcher's glove by much. He wasn't missing bats, but I think since Willis took over, he has gotten Kelly to change back into more of a pitch to contact pitcher. And he was doing exactly that.
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Post by jmei on May 26, 2015 14:31:02 GMT -5
Miley 24 May: 3.02 FIP, 4.58 xFIP Game by game FIPs are pointless. Let's say the popup and first two ground balls were outs in the 2nd inning and Kelly has a 1-2-3 2nd inning. That happens a lot when pitchers give up a pop fly and 2 ground balls. Single-game xFIP and FIP do exactly what you're doing, except they assume league-average results on BIP rather than a .000 BABIP.
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 14:31:56 GMT -5
Game by game FIPs are pointless. Let's say the popup and first two ground balls were outs in the 2nd inning and Kelly has a 1-2-3 2nd inning. That happens a lot when pitchers give up a pop fly and 2 ground balls. Single-game xFIP and FIP do exactly what you're doing, except they assume league-average results on BIP rather than a .000 BABIP. Great, but I also won't assume a .583 BABIP which is what everyone else is doing. 5 ground balls and a popup deserve more than 0 outs, considering BABIP on ground balls and fly balls average in the low .200s. I NEVER said that Kelly deserved to give up 0 runs.
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Post by James Dunne on May 26, 2015 15:01:57 GMT -5
Nobody else is assuming a .583 BABIP! Seriously, nobody. You are the one arguing that all those balks in play could have been outs. He can be unlucky AND not pitch well. The fact that he's a better pitcher than his ERA doesn't, on its own, make him good. Even by xFIP, which he seems to do best with, he has been average.
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 15:13:10 GMT -5
Nobody else is assuming a .583 BABIP! Seriously, nobody. You are the one arguing that all those balks in play could have been outs. He can be unlucky AND not pitch well. The fact that he's a better pitcher than his ERA doesn't, on its own, make him good. Even by xFIP, which he seems to do best with, he has been average. An average pitcher is absolutely fine for a 5th starter. It's better than most teams have. He gave up 3 runs in previous two starts, but he has this game and now it's time for the minors or the bullpen to start throwing Eduardo Rodriguez into the savior role with Nick Cafardo breathing down his neck.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 26, 2015 15:28:09 GMT -5
Tim Britton @timbritton · 10m 10 minutes ago
Red Sox v. Pelfrey: Pedroia 2B, Betts CF, Sandoval 3B, Ramirez LF, Ortiz DH, Napoli 1B, Bogaerts SS, Castillo RF, Leon C, Buchholz RHP.
Ortiz dropped to 5th.
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Post by mgoetze on May 26, 2015 15:48:30 GMT -5
Game by game FIPs are pointless. Let's say the popup and first two ground balls were outs in the 2nd inning and Kelly has a 1-2-3 2nd inning. That happens a lot when pitchers give up a pop fly and 2 ground balls. Single-game xFIP and FIP do exactly what you're doing, except they assume league-average results on BIP rather than a .000 BABIP. Oh come on, we've had this discussion before. They do not because the BABIP is reflected in the fielding-dependent denominator IP. A stat with BF rather than IP as the denominator is always superior, but especially so in such small samples.
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Post by grandsalami on May 26, 2015 15:52:21 GMT -5
Tim Britton @timbritton · 10m 10 minutes ago Red Sox v. Pelfrey: Pedroia 2B, Betts CF, Sandoval 3B, Ramirez LF, Ortiz DH, Napoli 1B, Bogaerts SS, Castillo RF, Leon C, Buchholz RHP. Ortiz dropped to 5th. 2012
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Post by soxfan06 on May 26, 2015 15:54:31 GMT -5
Still think we should give Matt Barnes a chance to start.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,704
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Post by nomar on May 26, 2015 15:56:58 GMT -5
Still think we should give Matt Barnes a chance to start. Johnson would probably be just as effective (or close to it) and Barnes has been valuable out of the pen.
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Post by jmei on May 26, 2015 15:57:49 GMT -5
Single-game xFIP and FIP do exactly what you're doing, except they assume league-average results on BIP rather than a .000 BABIP. Oh come on, we've had this discussion before. They do not because the BABIP is reflected in the fielding-dependent denominator IP. A stat with BF rather than IP as the denominator is always superior, but especially so in such small samples. A distinction without a difference. He had a 6.64 single-game SIERA (a per-PA stat), which is still not good. No amount of massaging will make that start look good. It was a bad start, even if it was less bad than his ERA might suggest. It doesn't mean he's a bad player (I suspect I'm more bullish on him than most), and it doesn't mean he should get replaced by Rodriguez in the rotation (I'm pretty strongly of the opinion that they should give Kelly at least another month), but I just cannot understand the continued effort to make that start look good. Sorry, it just wasn't.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,704
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Post by nomar on May 26, 2015 15:59:18 GMT -5
Sandoval does have a 170 wRC+ vs RHP. I'm fine with it.
Also if he does switch to full time LHH, he's probably going to be a much better hitter overall.
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Post by mgoetze on May 26, 2015 16:03:21 GMT -5
I just cannot understand the continued effort to make that start look good. Sorry, it just wasn't. I'm not trying to make it look good, I'm simply counteracting efforts to make it look even worse than it was. James gave numbers that seemed too extreme to me, so I called him out on it. You and thursty are backing numbers that seem too extreme to me, so I'm calling you out on it. I'm fine with calling it a 6.64 SIERA start, I'm just not fine with calling it a 12.74 FIP start.
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 16:03:53 GMT -5
If 3 out of 4 ground balls should on average be outs, how is it so unrealistic to think he'd get 3 outs out of 5 ground balls (plus the pop fly to left) before the home run and wind up with maybe 2 runs allowed, 3 at the most? And then who knows what happens in the 3rd because he didn't throw his arm off in the 2nd with 36 pitches?
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Post by mgoetze on May 26, 2015 16:26:23 GMT -5
Projected rest-of-season ERA (average of Steamer and ZiPS): Porcello 3.92 Buchholz 3.97 Miley 4.13 Kelly 4.34 Masterson 4.52 Wright 5.03 That I disagree with the Wright projection is of course well-known. Anyway, yanking Kelly would seem to be an overreaction.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2015 16:28:46 GMT -5
Still think we should give Matt Barnes a chance to start. Johnson would probably be just as effective (or close to it) and Barnes has been valuable out of the pen. Concur. Of the guys they had in Pawtucket, Barnes' stuff (and, frankly, demeanor, and I mean this in a good way) translated better to the bullpen. I'm not convinced that he'd do better starting than Wright, Rodriguez, or Johnson. I am convinced he's a better late inning reliever. Possible exception could be Rodriguez, but the other circumstances (age, point on development track) make Barnes the better bullpen option there.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 26, 2015 16:29:26 GMT -5
I didn't see the game but I followed it on the radio and with Gameday. It seemed to me that Kelly tried to throw too hard once again. He can hit some high numbers but those balls get hit back at him. He has been more effective throwing his FB around 95 and mixing it well with his other pitches. Of course, once again his command wasn't too good. I think his talent is so exceptional that he is worth sending out there regularly for a while yet. If he gets things in sync he is the best pitcher the Sox have. His command was fine. He only walked one batter and wasn't missing the catcher's glove by much. He wasn't missing bats, but I think since Willis took over, he has gotten Kelly to change back into more of a pitch to contact pitcher. And he was doing exactly that. I depended on the radio descriptions for what I wrote about his command. They were saying he was not getting his pitches down like he needs to do, especially his FB.
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Post by mgoetze on May 26, 2015 16:31:51 GMT -5
I'd be more inclined to start Tazawa than Barnes.
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 16:33:44 GMT -5
His command was fine. He only walked one batter and wasn't missing the catcher's glove by much. He wasn't missing bats, but I think since Willis took over, he has gotten Kelly to change back into more of a pitch to contact pitcher. And he was doing exactly that. I depended on the radio descriptions for what I wrote about his command. They were saying he was not getting his pitches down like he needs to do, especially his FB. I don't really get that, because he got a lot of ground balls and popups. The only complaint anyone could have of him is not enough swings and misses.
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