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How bad is Hanley's D and what can the RS do about it?
TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 26, 2015 10:34:56 GMT -5
My answers: Historically bad and I don't know.
B-ref has Hanley at a staggering -1.3 dWAR after 41 games in LF. Over 162 games, that's a -5.1. UZR/150 is no kinder to Hanley, putting him at -44.2
To put that in perspective noted bad LF Jim Rice's worst bRef dWAR over a full season was -1.2 in 1985. He managed to put up a gaudy -1.5 in only 46 games in the OF (19 in left, 27 in right) in 1977, but that's a SSS.
Manny Ramirez was in negative territory every year with the Red Sox, bottoming out at bRef dWAR -2.1 in 2005.
But here's the most amazing stat of all to me: Due to his defense, Hanley, who has an OPS-plus of 116, is a horrendous BB player. His overall WAR is -.5. In fact, he is a significantly worse player than a guy with his polar opposite profile, JBJ, who was .7 bRef WAR last year, despite an OPS-plus of 51.
Count me among those who are somewhat skeptical of defensive stats. (I just don't buy that Dwight Evans was a bad RFer after 1976.) But in Hanley's case, the numbers match the eye test. And it's only going to get worse as teams realize they can run on him because he's slow to get to the ball and get it back to the infield.
I think Hanley's inability to play LF makes it more likely that a scenario I mentioned in another thread will become reality: Things will get pretty uncomfortable next winter when the RS make it clear they don't want Ortiz back.
When the RS signed Hanley to play LF, there were a lot of comments about LF in Fenway being easy and not that important. It sounded silly and overly optimistic at time. It turns out that it was.
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 11:01:55 GMT -5
He is definitely bad, but I don't trust the stats that say he's THAT bad. That really seems like the numbers are too extreme even for a bad defensive player and will probably look better even if he doesn't improve. It takes 3 years for those stats to stabilize. That's why defensive WAR on a per season cannot ever be completely meaningful.
I almost wonder if they'd be better off with Papi playing 1B and Hanley DHing on occasion.
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Post by GyIantosca on May 26, 2015 11:09:10 GMT -5
It's one thing about his defense but what I hear is he is slow to the ball in those corners. That what always bothered people he doesn't hustle all the time. First base and maybe DH will be open soon. There stuck right now. But in the offseason have him work at first base and obviously when Papi is gone he is our next DH. If Papi continues this the Sox will give him a mulligan and he will come back next year but he is 40 next year. Maybe Papi might want to retire next year.
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 11:15:19 GMT -5
One fix should be easy and it goes back to what I was taught in little league. Throw the damn ball immediately to the cutoff man. No pump fakes and no acting surprised when a runner is trying to take an extra base.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 26, 2015 12:57:50 GMT -5
I would think that if Hanley remains a butcher in LF and doesn't show signs of improvement that he could get a shot at 1b next year with Napoli leaving, and then the following year would become the DH to replace Ortiz assuming Ortiz plays through 2016. By 2017, maybe Sam Travis is knocking on the door at 1b or the Sox simply get somebody else outside the organization?
I think JBJ is a factor in this too. If he continues to hit well in AAA, and he gets a real second chance with the Sox, perhaps he winds up in CF with Betts and Castillo flanking him on the corners. That would be an OF that could cover some serious ground, but Bradley would have to hit in this scenario. He'd have to make up some of that offense lost if/when Napoli leaves.
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Post by sibbysisti on May 26, 2015 13:40:14 GMT -5
Those are my thoughts as well. Napoli is having a nice run. But I doubt Cherington brings him back at his present salary. That opens a spot for Hanley. As an infielder his entire career until this season, he should be able to handle the position. And it would be less wear and tear on his body.
IDK about Papi, if he doesn't get going in the hot weather, his extension for next season is in jeopardy. It is at the team's option right?
Love the potential of a Mookie-JBJ-Rusney OF providing Jackie hits at a reasonable MLB level, say .260.
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 13:44:31 GMT -5
Those are my thoughts as well. Napoli is having a nice run. But I doubt Cherington brings him back at his present salary. That opens a spot for Hanley. As an infielder his entire career until this season, he should be able to handle the position. And it would be less wear and tear on his body. IDK about Papi, if he doesn't get going in the hot weather, his extension for next season is in jeopardy. It is at the team's option right? Love the potential of a Mookie-JBJ-Rusney OF providing Jackie hits at a reasonable MLB level, say .260. It's a vesting option based on Papi getting 425 PAs. Though I really hope he doesn't play past the point where it's time to retire. i.e. if he finishes the season with a 84 wRC+ like he has now, it's time to join the broadcast booth every few weeks.
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Post by congusgambler33 on May 26, 2015 13:54:19 GMT -5
After running into the wall when he really hustled to make that catch I think that management has told him to take it slow and not worry about the highlight play. they need his bat more than his defense. He hasn't had a single RBI this month until yesterday and that means more to them than an All Star left fielder. this is the dilemma that they have inherited. He is going to take it slow to avoid injuries and teams will run on him. this is not a good recipe for a championship team. I know they are planning on him being the DH next year, but we are going to have to suffer through this year of hi jinks. they made it a big deal that he was an athlete and would make the change to the outfield pretty seamless. Not so fast, I was an infielder and was stuck in the outfield for a time and I didn't know where the ball was half the time. It is NOT an easy transition.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 26, 2015 13:55:59 GMT -5
Side note: JBJ isn't ready to hit at this level still.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 26, 2015 14:06:51 GMT -5
I think that Hanley's defense makes no difference in how the Sox finish this year. It might make a difference in the playoffs. However, this team is not the team many of us thought it was going to be. Before ST I thought it was an 86-win team. I upped that to 91 based on my theory that the Sox could solve a pitching problem or two with trades at mid season. I never anticipated the hitting problem.
Napoli seems to be coming around but it isn't going to be enough unless there is better hitting throughout the lineup. There still is a chance a powerhouse offense will develop but the odds are lengthening. Without that this team probably doesn't make the post season regardless of Hanley's D.
I don't think it is a problem that needs to be addressed this year. As pointed out by others, there is a reasonable chance he could be the 1B or the DH next year.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 26, 2015 14:11:21 GMT -5
I meant to add that I don't think that JBJ has a long term future with the Sox. I think he will be part of a package trade deal either at the deadline or in the off season. He probably needs to be with a team that will allow him to play and not hit until he learns to hit. I think he will learn to hit if he gets that chance in the majors. I don't think he is going to learn in the minors and the Sox won't play him if he doesn't hit.
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Post by stevedillard on May 26, 2015 14:15:19 GMT -5
Hanley's D unifies the sabremetric and traditional scouting parties.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 26, 2015 14:18:52 GMT -5
Hanley's D unifies the sabremetric and traditional scouting parties. It even sounds bad on the radio.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 26, 2015 14:41:22 GMT -5
He had a couple plays yesterday that weren't all that bad after his mistake (which I missed). He's got to put more effort into fielding, because he should be able to be a lot better out there than he is. Hopefully he realizes the value he'd add to himself by becoming an average LF'er.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 26, 2015 15:54:57 GMT -5
He is definitely bad, but I don't trust the stats that say he's THAT bad. That really seems like the numbers are too extreme even for a bad defensive player and will probably look better even if he doesn't improve. It takes 3 years for those stats to stabilize. That's why defensive WAR on a per season cannot ever be completely meaningful. OTOH ... UZR has him at -6 runs range, -3 runs arm. DRS has him at -6 runs range, -3 runs arm, plus -3 runs for plays other systems don't bother assessing. TZ has him at -8 runs range + arm. That's essentially total agreement. It would be strange for all the metrics to be off, identically, because they're each imperfect. That's how bad he's been. It may not be how bad he is, but that's how bad he's been. And our eyes have him that bad, don't they? Remember that a play made in the outfield is, on average, pretty much a run. It's no stretch to think that he's let 6 catchable balls drop in his 38 games.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2015 16:24:45 GMT -5
It would be strange for all the metrics to be off, identically, because they're each imperfect. Not sure that's how it works. If I throw a knife, shoot a shotgun, and kick a soccer ball at a target, and miss exactly six feet to the left all three times, it doesn't mean that my aim was fine and the target was wrong because of the fact that the three ways I missed were all very different.
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2015 16:28:35 GMT -5
I really can't believe there would be enough balls hit to him to cost 5.1 wins just for defense. He doesn't misplay every ball.
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Post by ethanbein on May 26, 2015 16:57:00 GMT -5
It would be strange for all the metrics to be off, identically, because they're each imperfect. Not sure that's how it works. If I throw a knife, shoot a shotgun, and kick a soccer ball at a target, and miss exactly six feet to the left all three times, it doesn't mean that my aim was fine and the target was wrong because of the fact that the three ways I missed were all very different. If a pitcher has a low FIP and a low ERA I have a lot more confidence that he has actually pitched well than if he had a lower ERA than FIP (hey, maybe it's just BABIP luck) or a lower FIP than ERA (maybe he's bad at managing contact quality). Similarly, if different defensive metrics that use different methodologies agree, I feel more confident that they're telling the right story. Everyone agrees that Hanley has been completely awful out there. The strength of metrics is to take the inputs that everyone can see, and put a value on them. I find it reasonable that Hanley really *has* been that bad. The question is, how much can he improve? It feels like he should be able to figure things out a little bit more out there, but he hasn't looked any better to my eyes.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 26, 2015 22:24:41 GMT -5
Side note: JBJ isn't ready to hit at this level still. I feel like it's being ignored, but is Mookie ready either? He's made some nice plays on defense, but even JBJ could give you that.
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Post by mgoetze on May 26, 2015 22:42:50 GMT -5
Side note: JBJ isn't ready to hit at this level still. I feel like it's being ignored, but is Mookie ready either? He's made some nice plays on defense, but even JBJ could give you that. Mookie this year so far: 85 wRC+ JBJ last year: 47 wRC+ Quite a difference.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 26, 2015 22:55:27 GMT -5
I feel like it's being ignored, but is Mookie ready either? He's made some nice plays on defense, but even JBJ could give you that. Mookie this year so far: 85 wRC+ JBJ last year: 47 wRC+ Quite a difference. That only proves that Betts is hitting better than Bradley, it doesn't ease my concerns over whether or not he can hit at a respectable clip. That. 85 wRC+ is good for 135th in baseball
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Post by mgoetze on May 26, 2015 22:59:45 GMT -5
That only proves that Betts is hitting better than Bradley, it doesn't ease my concerns over whether or not he can hit at a respectable clip. That. 85 wRC+ is good for 135th in baseball Given his defense it's also good for the 3rd highest WAR amongst Red Sox position players.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 26, 2015 23:04:21 GMT -5
That only proves that Betts is hitting better than Bradley, it doesn't ease my concerns over whether or not he can hit at a respectable clip. That. 85 wRC+ is good for 135th in baseball Given his defense it's also good for the 3rd highest WAR amongst Red Sox position players. Yes, but have you seen this Red Sox team? Top 3 in WAR is the tallest midget award.I'm just saying, there is some reason for concern
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 27, 2015 1:57:14 GMT -5
But here's the most amazing stat of all to me: Due to his defense, Hanley, who has an OPS-plus of 116, is a horrendous BB player. His overall WAR is -.5. In fact, he is a significantly worse player than a guy with his polar opposite profile, JBJ, who was .7 bRef WAR last year, despite an OPS-plus of 51. Second most amazing. Despite a wRC+ of 108 -- actually subpar for a LF -- Hanley currently ranks 648th of 649 in MLB players for Win Probability Added, at -1.63. Which is to say, 14.7 situationally-neutral runs below average, before positional adjustment. Whether it's predictive or not, he's been as un-clutch at the plate -- 17.2 runs worth -- as he has been bad in the field. Oh, and he also ranks 645th in baserunning, according to FanGraphs, at -3.4 runs. (One of the guys worse than Hanley in baserunning is Casey McGehee, who is the one guy with a worse WPA. But McGehee has that WPA because he has a 55 wRC+.) When you measure his offense by actual, clutch value, he's been -2.6 WAR. In a quarter of a season.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,810
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 27, 2015 5:54:13 GMT -5
So, if we agree that Hanley has been a very bad BB player so far and we expand the discussion a bit, we can say that since last year's trade deadline, Ben has:
- Paid $22 million/year for a clunker. - Paid $19.5 million for basically a platoon 3B (.071, .114, .185 -47 sOPS-plus vs. LHP. - Traded a super low-cost, competent SP for Joe Kelly (5.29 FIP) and Allen Craig. - Signed Justin Masterson, who may never throw another pitch in a RS uniform. - Re-signed Craig Breslow (only kidding about that one, sort of anyways.)
The bad news for Ben is that despite the grandfatherly, gentle persona, JWH is a cold-hearted businessman who believes in accountability. If the RS finish below .500 again, I would expect a change.
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