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Battle for top 10 (protected) draft picks in 2016 draft
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 30, 2015 13:14:47 GMT -5
Loving all the SP'S getting moved. Heck of a year to have a top 10 pick and all these guys no longer eligible for arbitration. 70 picks apart was a killer.
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Post by bentossaurus on Jul 30, 2015 13:32:39 GMT -5
Sandoval's signing blowing up in your face could have been seen miles away. Happened even sooner than I thought though. Breslow's and Masterson's signing were also pretty poor from the get go. I was pretty much OK with all the rest.
Would have loved if we were in the Donaldson's trade talks, but as Hatfield said, Beane marches to his own drum.
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Post by thegoo13 on Jul 30, 2015 13:55:06 GMT -5
This is a far out idea, but (don't laugh)...maybe this is mostly about the players. You need to look at the personnel decisions at the time of the acquisitions. Injuries, Pablo Sandoval gaining a great deal of weight (when he was already out of shape), pitchers failing to produce at former levels during prime years, injuries...GM's are not all knowing regarding the future. I did not like the Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval signings. The length of Sandoval's contract concerned me greatly. However, if 90% of the other players on the roster had performed at their career averages, this disaster would not be happening. I question why the Sox did not sit Sandoval down in spring training and tell him that he was going to have a shadow from the club, night and day, until he lost at least 25 pounds. When he began looking like a hot air balloon, I would have put him on the DL and had a fitness trainer work the fat off of him while games were being played. Wire his jaw shut (well, that is probably extreme). Have a nutritionist explain that he can eat all he wants of the right foods, but that eating a whole pig in one sitting is a little overboard. David Ortiz was supposed to be Hanley's second father and straighten him out. That has worked out well...or not. The best way to project a player is to look at past performance. That did not bode well when Sandoval was signed. However, almost all of the other signings and trades that did not work out surprised most of us. Hindsight is easy. Foresight is extraordinarily difficult. I liked the Hanley signing, especially at the contract rate. I am surprised he has been THIS bad in LF. I am pissed that he, at times, seems not not give a S out there. Didn't like the Sandoval signing at all, but clearly the were moving away from WMB and there were no great alternatives out there. Including Headley IMO. Brings me to 2016. To me Hanley cannot play LF anymore. I think he has to go to 3B and Panda to 1B. They each have experience in those positions. Neither would be great defensively but in 2017 Hanley is the DH anyway. Just think that is about the best lemon aid that can be made at this point? IMO anyway. I 100% believe that neither player is as bad as this.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 3, 2015 21:09:52 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 4, 2015 0:58:34 GMT -5
After tonight:
Phi 41 65 -- Mia 43 64 1.5 Mil 44 63 2.5 Col 44 60 4 Oak 47 60 5.5 Bos 47 59 6 Atl 48 58 7 Cin 47 56 7.5 Cle 48 57 7.5 Sea 49 58 7.5
ChA 50 54 10
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Post by telson13 on Aug 4, 2015 1:14:56 GMT -5
After tonight: Phi 41 65 -- Mia 43 64 1.5 Mil 44 63 2.5 Col 44 60 4 Oak 47 60 5.5 Bos 47 59 6 Atl 48 58 7 Cin 47 56 7.5 Cle 48 57 7.5 Sea 49 58 7.5 I'm so conflicted!!!! I want Owens to have a good debut, but those damn Ws are killing their draft position. I guess I can hope for a 6-2-0-0-1-8 line from Owens and then a (predictable) cough-up of 7-10 runs by Breslow and co. during the last three frames. Nice 9-7 loss despite a great Owens start and Xander's first 5-hit game...
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Post by kangaroojack on Aug 4, 2015 1:42:22 GMT -5
After tonight: Phi 41 65 -- Mia 43 64 1.5 Mil 44 63 2.5 Col 44 60 4 Oak 47 60 5.5 Bos 47 59 6 Atl 48 58 7 Cin 47 56 7.5 Cle 48 57 7.5 Sea 49 58 7.5 I'm so conflicted!!!! I want Owens to have a good debut, but those damn Ws are killing their draft position. I guess I can hope for a 6-2-0-0-1-8 line from Owens and then a (predictable) cough-up of 7-10 runs by Breslow and co. during the last three frames. Nice 9-7 loss despite a great Owens start and Xander's first 5-hit game... As much as I want the highest draft pick possible to somewhat offset this miserable season, I'd rather they sweep the Yankees and lose to the Jays and Orioles.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 4, 2015 5:23:52 GMT -5
This team would be far better off having a great final two months - where Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Bradley, and Castillo all impress; where Sandoval returns to his old form, Papi hammers lefties, and Hanley learns to play defense (either 1B or LF); and where the pitching shows promise - then they are getting a top 3, 5, or even 10 pick.
I'm rooting for them to win every night. I want them to play well. And most importantly I want these guys to show they are close to ready to compete next year.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 4, 2015 7:45:11 GMT -5
^^^^^ Exactly. This isn't basketball, where tanking and getting the #1 pick could immediately turn the franchise around.
If this team is performing better down the stretch and that is a result of guys like Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Castillo, Erod, and maybe even JBJ, Owens, + others then that bodes much better for our future than next years #1 pick ever could.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 4, 2015 7:46:25 GMT -5
A higher draft pick is a consolation prize for sucking, not something to root for before the fact.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2015 8:52:37 GMT -5
I liked this thread in 2013. I've grown disgusted with it at this point. At least this one appears much deeper than 13 and 15. No transformative Bryce Harper or even David Price types, reportedly, but solid in first two-three rounds.
Meh.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 4, 2015 9:28:29 GMT -5
Good grief. Why so serious?
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
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Post by alnipper on Aug 4, 2015 10:54:28 GMT -5
I hope they play a lot better starting today. The Sox need to tighten up our defense, hit better, and pitch better. I want the highest pick as possible, so we can use the extra money on later rounds. Hopefully the Sox lose a lot of 1 run games, and play much better.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 4, 2015 22:39:32 GMT -5
This team would be far better off having a great final two months - where Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Bradley, and Castillo all impress; where Sandoval returns to his old form, Papi hammers lefties, and Hanley learns to play defense (either 1B or LF); and where the pitching shows promise - then they are getting a top 3, 5, or even 10 pick. I'm rooting for them to win every night. I want them to play well. And most importantly I want these guys to show they are close to ready to compete next year. Meh, a lot of those things on your laundry list can happen and the Sox can still lose plenty of games. There's no reason why Betts and Bogaerts can't continue to play well, Swihart matures a little, E-Rod and Owens (even Wright) show promise, Castillo becomes competent in RF, Hanley graduates to mediocre in LF, Papi hangs in against lefties, Sandoval hits 15 homers with a .270 BA like he did in SF, yet the Sox still lose more than their fair share of games. For everything you mentioned, they still have an injured Pedroia, a washed up Napoli, way too much playing time for DeAza, a terrible defense, a God awful pitching staff that features a lot of innings from Kelly, Miley, Porcello, and every non Japanese pitcher in the bullpen. That's a lot of ways to lose games, even if the other things improve. At this point, they could go 0 for the season for all I care. They have already disgraced themselves. Going 78-84 isn't going to make me feel any better than 68-94. Either way they're staying home in October. I get the point about how it's nice to have the needle pointing up when the season ends, but even that doesn't necessarily matter. For example, if Swihart shows drastic improvement in April 2016, but not August 2015, that's still fine, and probably more significant. At any rate, at the end of the day it doesn't matter how hard we root for the Sox for the rest of the season, what will be will be, and if you've paid any attention to the season, odds are pretty good they'll lose a good deal more than they win regardless of what we want. So if drafting an extra spot higher could be the difference between the next Sonny Gray versus the next Matt Barnes, then I'm all for it in the craptastic season. Realistically I think the #3 or #4 spot in the draft is in play and next year is a strong draft, and I hope the Sox have a near future front of the rotation college arm out there waiting for them.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 5, 2015 0:02:17 GMT -5
This team would be far better off having a great final two months - where Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Bradley, and Castillo all impress; where Sandoval returns to his old form, Papi hammers lefties, and Hanley learns to play defense (either 1B or LF); and where the pitching shows promise - then they are getting a top 3, 5, or even 10 pick. I'm rooting for them to win every night. I want them to play well. And most importantly I want these guys to show they are close to ready to compete next year. Meh, a lot of those things on your laundry list can happen and the Sox can still lose plenty of games. There's no reason why Betts and Bogaerts can't continue to play well, Swihart matures a little, E-Rod and Owens (even Wright) show promise, Castillo becomes competent in RF, Hanley graduates to mediocre in LF, Papi hangs in against lefties, Sandoval hits 15 homers with a .270 BA like he did in SF, yet the Sox still lose more than their fair share of games. For everything you mentioned, they still have an injured Pedroia, a washed up Napoli, way too much playing time for DeAza, a terrible defense, a God awful pitching staff that features a lot of innings from Kelly, Miley, Porcello, and every non Japanese pitcher in the bullpen. That's a lot of ways to lose games, even if the other things improve. At this point, they could go 0 for the season for all I care. They have already disgraced themselves. Going 78-84 isn't going to make me feel any better than 68-94. Either way they're staying home in October. I get the point about how it's nice to have the needle pointing up when the season ends, but even that doesn't necessarily matter. For example, if Swihart shows drastic improvement in April 2016, but not August 2015, that's still fine, and probably more significant. At any rate, at the end of the day it doesn't matter how hard we root for the Sox for the rest of the season, what will be will be, and if you've paid any attention to the season, odds are pretty good they'll lose a good deal more than they win regardless of what we want. So if drafting an extra spot higher could be the difference between the next Sonny Gray versus the next Matt Barnes, then I'm all for it in the craptastic season. Realistically I think the #3 or #4 spot in the draft is in play and next year is a strong draft, and I hope the Sox have a near future front of the rotation college arm out there waiting for them. If they went on a run, it would be way easier to evaluate what we need for 2016 than if everyone craters or doesn't start showing signs of life. For instance, Craig didn't show any signs of life at the end of 2014 and then they expected something from him this year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2015 0:14:51 GMT -5
Meh, a lot of those things on your laundry list can happen and the Sox can still lose plenty of games. There's no reason why Betts and Bogaerts can't continue to play well, Swihart matures a little, E-Rod and Owens (even Wright) show promise, Castillo becomes competent in RF, Hanley graduates to mediocre in LF, Papi hangs in against lefties, Sandoval hits 15 homers with a .270 BA like he did in SF, yet the Sox still lose more than their fair share of games. For everything you mentioned, they still have an injured Pedroia, a washed up Napoli, way too much playing time for DeAza, a terrible defense, a God awful pitching staff that features a lot of innings from Kelly, Miley, Porcello, and every non Japanese pitcher in the bullpen. That's a lot of ways to lose games, even if the other things improve. At this point, they could go 0 for the season for all I care. They have already disgraced themselves. Going 78-84 isn't going to make me feel any better than 68-94. Either way they're staying home in October. I get the point about how it's nice to have the needle pointing up when the season ends, but even that doesn't necessarily matter. For example, if Swihart shows drastic improvement in April 2016, but not August 2015, that's still fine, and probably more significant. At any rate, at the end of the day it doesn't matter how hard we root for the Sox for the rest of the season, what will be will be, and if you've paid any attention to the season, odds are pretty good they'll lose a good deal more than they win regardless of what we want. So if drafting an extra spot higher could be the difference between the next Sonny Gray versus the next Matt Barnes, then I'm all for it in the craptastic season. Realistically I think the #3 or #4 spot in the draft is in play and next year is a strong draft, and I hope the Sox have a near future front of the rotation college arm out there waiting for them. If they went on a run, it would be way easier to evaluate what we need for 2016 than if everyone craters or doesn't start showing signs of life. For instance, Craig didn't show any signs of life at the end of 2014 and then they expected something from him this year. Regardless of how they finish, it's not too hard to diagnose what they need. They're going to need a 1b. I doubt Hanley gets a look there and it seems like they're stuck with him in LF next year like they're stuck with Sandoval at 3b like they're stuck with Porcello in the rotation. They have too much money committed to those three players so they're not going to be looking for replacements and with the money committed to Castillo, he'll finally get every crack at RF. So the Sox will need a new 1b, and will need at least one front line starter, maybe 2. Their bullpen is a mess. Maybe Cook or Macchi impress. Maybe they don't. At least we'll know by the end of the year. Whether Swihart blossoms or not, they know they'll likely have two of Vazquez, Swihart, and Hanigan. They know they have Pedroia at 2b, Bogaerts at SS, Ortiz DHing, Holt playing everywhere, and Betts in CF. They know Betts and Tazawa will be the back end of the bullpen. The rest of the pen needs a lot of restructuring. They'll see how advanced Owens is. They lost today with him pitching but it didn't stop them from getting a positive impression of him, just like they've come away with a positive impression of Rodriguez to the point that they'll be counting on him in 2016. They'll see if Wright can keep them in games. That's all there is. Wins and losses are totally irrelevant in 2015 at this point.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 5, 2015 6:28:01 GMT -5
This team would be far better off having a great final two months - where Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Bradley, and Castillo all impress; where Sandoval returns to his old form, Papi hammers lefties, and Hanley learns to play defense (either 1B or LF); and where the pitching shows promise - then they are getting a top 3, 5, or even 10 pick. Personally, I want them to do all of these things while losing as many games as possible. Not easy of course, but I see zero benefit to actually putting more Ws on the board. No, a single player isn't going to "turn the franchise around" (I don't believe our situation is that dire anyway), but when you're in the top 10 you have at least a decent chance of getting a franchise player. If we miss that guy by one pick we'll look on that five years from now as a hell of a lot more important than some feel-good stuff about having a winning culture or whatever (not accusing chavo of saying this). It's not like two months of good performance for most of these guys is going to change their projections significantly. The best it could do is, again, make us feel better or maybe help their trade value.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 5, 2015 6:43:50 GMT -5
If Breslow throws another pitch for the Red Sox, they are actually trying to tank.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 5, 2015 7:25:59 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, BOS would have the 5th pick in the 2016 MLB draft (post-ASG record):
1. PHI ---- (13-3) 2. MIA -1.0 (5-13) 3. MIL -2.5 (7-11) 4. COL -3.0 (5-12) 5. BOS -5.0 (5-13) 6. OAK -5.5 (7-10) 7. ATL -6.0 (6-12) 8. CIN -7.5 (9-9) 9. CLE -7.5 (7-11) 10. SEA -7.5 (9-10) 11. CHW -9.0 (9-10) 12. DET -9.5 (7-11) 13. ARZ -10.0 (9-9) 14. SDO -10.0 (11-6)
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is ARZ, COL, BOS, CHW, PHI, CIN, MIA, SDO, ATL, MIL, CLE, SEA, OAK, DET)
5 games separate #5 from #14.
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Post by jmei on Aug 5, 2015 7:46:16 GMT -5
Worth noting that the typical difference between the fifth pick in the draft and the tenth pick in the draft is pretty minor. Yes, every once in a while you miss a stud by a couple picks. But more often than not, there's not a huge difference in the kind of player you'd get between #5 and #10.
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Post by 0ap0 on Aug 5, 2015 8:36:02 GMT -5
They know Betts and Tazawa will be the back end of the bullpen. The rest of the pen needs a lot of restructuring. It's worse than we thought! I guess we'll need a center fielder then, too.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 5, 2015 9:44:40 GMT -5
Worth noting that the typical difference between the fifth pick in the draft and the tenth pick in the draft is pretty minor. Yes, every once in a while you miss a stud by a couple picks. But more often than not, there's not a huge difference in the kind of player you'd get between #5 and #10. This isn't really true. The average #5 pick is significantly better than the average #10 pick. One estimate has the #5 pick at about 40% more WAR over the team controlled years. Yeah, draft picks are crapshoots in general, but the top picks are significantly better bets than picks even a bit lower.
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Post by jmei on Aug 5, 2015 10:09:39 GMT -5
Worth noting that the typical difference between the fifth pick in the draft and the tenth pick in the draft is pretty minor. Yes, every once in a while you miss a stud by a couple picks. But more often than not, there's not a huge difference in the kind of player you'd get between #5 and #10. This isn't really true. The average #5 pick is significantly better than the average #10 pick. One estimate has the #5 pick at about 40% more WAR over the team controlled years. Yeah, draft picks are crapshoots in general, but the top picks are significantly better bets than picks even a bit lower. I don't think you included the link there. If it's like the ones I think you're talking about, it's broken up into buckets of the 1-5 pick versus the 5-10 pick, with the first bucket being significantly more valuable than the second bucket. That's not a totally fair comparison here, since it lumps together the first overall pick with the fifth pick, and I think there's a significant decline in value once you get past the first couple picks (and I don't think it's possible for this team to tank enough to get the first or second overall pick). If you use slightly different buckets or compare each individual pick, I don't think there's a huge difference in value. For instance, this analysis suggests that the no. 3-7 pick averages 5.37 6 year fWAR, while the No. 8-15 pick averages 5.21 fWAR, which is not much of a difference. And while there are methodological/sample size issues in the number midway through this article (uses career rather than six year numbers, outliers can skew the data, which is why it's not linear, etc.), the difference between no. 5 and no. 10 do not seem huge (at most a couple WAR over the course of a career).
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 5, 2015 10:38:46 GMT -5
Worth noting that the typical difference between the fifth pick in the draft and the tenth pick in the draft is pretty minor. Yes, every once in a while you miss a stud by a couple picks. But more often than not, there's not a huge difference in the kind of player you'd get between #5 and #10. This isn't really true. The average #5 pick is significantly better than the average #10 pick. One estimate has the #5 pick at about 40% more WAR over the team controlled years. Yeah, draft picks are crapshoots in general, but the top picks are significantly better bets than picks even a bit lower. Your link isn't working for me either, but based on this the expected difference between the 5th and 10th pick over their first 6 years averages about 2.5 WAR. Less for pitchers and high schoolers, more for hitters and players drafted out of college. Compared to the benefit of finishing this season on a positive note and having everyone's individual performance improve - 2.5 WAR over 6 years is a very small price to pay. Average expected WAR by pick and pick type: 5th Pick 7th Pick 10th Pick HS P 4.2 3.5 2.9 HS H 9.1 7.6 6.2 C P 6.7 5.6 4.6 C H 11.6 9.7 8.0 7.9 6.6 5.4
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 5, 2015 12:28:40 GMT -5
There could be more of a difference based on how the money is spread out. The actual draft position isn't always as important as the slot money. If you save a million, you could sign 5 extra top 100 guys. And there's 5 more chances of a decent MLB player or tradeable asset. It's a hell of a lot easier to save a million at 5 than at 10.
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