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Battle for top 10 (protected) draft picks in 2016 draft
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Post by jmei on Aug 12, 2015 8:32:31 GMT -5
I've said something similar to this before and it seems to be ignored, but all of those picks are before the draft pool cap. The value of picks is different depending on whether a team can save some money. If a team can save a million while drafting someone maybe one pick early, they might get a shot at five overslot guys in the top 200 later. The further down they are, the harder it is to save that much. And there is probably a good possibility that you get one decent player out of those five overslot guys. That's true for the first few picks, where teams almost always pick up meaningful extra pool money, but the difference in savings between the #5 pick and the #10 pick is not much. There's a $1m difference in pool allocation between those picks, but most of that gets eaten up if you draft best player available (and if you don't draft best player available, you're robbing Peter to pay Paul).
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Post by jdb on Aug 12, 2015 18:32:13 GMT -5
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 12, 2015 20:16:42 GMT -5
The good news is that the teams below us (Phillies, Marlins, Brewers and Rockies) all have a bunch of games vs. each other while we play none of them. Keep this pace, and we are bound to move up at least a spot or two solely because someone has to win those games.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 12, 2015 20:44:17 GMT -5
I think the best way to judge the value of a 5 pick versus a 10 pick is to look at potential value, which is to say, who you could have clearly drafted if you'd been smart enough -- so, best player drafted 5 to 9 versus 10 to 14, or (if you're particularly smart) 10 through 19. Obviously, if one of the latter players is better, you could take him with the 5 pick, but you'd have to be that much extra smart. Conclusion: nearly half of the time, a player goes 5 to 7 that is substantially better than what's left at the top of most draft boards thereafter. I don't know that I agree with this. This might be the best theoretical way to judge the value of an earlier versus a later pick, but the real world is the real world. The best actual value of an earlier versus a later pick has to take into account the inefficiencies of the selection process caused by the draft rules and the difficulty for even the best baseball minds to envision progression of a prospect when they are making selections. How much the theoretical value comes into play, versus the actual, in a given year depends on the draft class, and how you rate the guys who are likely to be drafted 5-10, and most obviously, how well you draft in general. The Sox have drafted really well with Cherington as the Scouting Director's boss. Imagine that the Sox last year were in love with Benintendi and were very divided over who to take if he were off the board at 7. And that two years previously, they were similarly high on Clint Frazier and divided about who to take if he didn't make it to 7. In which case, the difference between picking 5 and 7, or between 7 and 10, would seem to be pretty dramatic. OTOH, there will be years when the guy a team thinks likely to be the best guy available after the first 4 picks lasts until 10 or even a little later (like 64). Yes, in some years it won't be clear who you really want, and in some it won't matter because the guy you like best is available any way it happens, and years in which it's all moot because you draft poorly. But there will also be years when the guy you really wanted goes a couple of picks before you, and it turns out you were right.
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Post by azblue on Aug 14, 2015 16:22:56 GMT -5
Sox have the 5th worst winning percentage going into Friday night's game.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 14, 2015 21:51:10 GMT -5
I have one kid on my mind Am Fox 1 brought him up a while ago, that's Jason Groome committed to Vandy. 6-6 lefty and weight 180. Perfect game says he has a special arm, throws in the 90's and hits upper 90's.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 15, 2015 13:13:26 GMT -5
Sox have the 5th worst winning percentage going into Friday night's game. Now 6th, and 7th worst run differential (first time I recall the Red Sox not being in the bottom five in a long time).
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Post by jdb on Aug 15, 2015 13:18:06 GMT -5
The Under Armor games on today at 4pm (MLB) if anyone cares. PG tomorrow but not sure if it's televised.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 16, 2015 20:15:53 GMT -5
Now 6th, and 7th worst run differential (first time I recall the Red Sox not being in the bottom five in a long time). As of 8/16, with 45 games left, Red Sox have the 7th pick (10th worst run differential). They are 4 games ahead of the 11th spot and 4 games behind the 3rd spot.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2015 22:37:49 GMT -5
As of 8/19pm, with 42 games left, Red Sox have the 8th pick (T-8th worst run differential).
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 23, 2015 13:48:06 GMT -5
As of 8/19pm, with 42 games left, Red Sox have the 8th pick (T-8th worst run differential). The heck with playing all these good young players and giving them needed experience. Play the crappy veterans as much as possible and drive down that winning percentage.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 23, 2015 13:51:12 GMT -5
As of 8/19pm, with 42 games left, Red Sox have the 8th pick (T-8th worst run differential). The heck with playing all these good young players and giving them needed experience. Play the crappy veterans as much as possible and drive down that winning percentage.If it is protected, I think it is great seeing some of these kids get their confidence and produce! They have definitely given a boost of energy to the team. Certainly we are seeing some of the best baseball of the season now. It would be nice to have a top-5, but being protected and getting a high pick is just fine with me.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 24, 2015 7:03:00 GMT -5
As of 8/23pm, with 38 games left, Red Sox have the 8th pick (10th worst run differential).
COL, PHI and MIA are in a virtual tie for the 1st pick, with COL winning the tiebreaker. The top six picks are NL teams.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 24, 2015 8:36:10 GMT -5
As of 8/23pm, with 38 games left, Red Sox have the 8th pick (10th worst run differential). COL, PHI and MIA are in a virtual tie for the 1st pick, with COL winning the tiebreaker. The top six picks are NL teams. Thank God for Oakland! There seems to be so much more parity in the American League. Those last 6 teams in the NL are atrocious. Hard to compete with them
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 29, 2015 9:19:27 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, PHI would have the 1st pick in the 2016 MLB draft, BOS would have the 8th pick in the draft and DET would have a top 10 pick:
1. PHI ---- 2. MIA -1.0 3. COL -1.5 4. CIN -2.0 5. ATL -3.5 6. MIL -3.5 7. OAK -4.0 8. BOS -8.5 9. SEA -9.0 10. DET -9.5 11. CHW -10.0 12. CLE -11.0 13. SDO -11.5
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is COL, BOS, CHW, PHI, CIN, MIA, SDO, ATL, MIL, CLE, SEA, OAK, DET)
BOS is 15-11 over their last 26 games, and now sits 11th in negative run differential.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Aug 29, 2015 10:24:51 GMT -5
8 to 10 with huge growth from the young guys is a win win to me. Not sure we'll be able to get away with both even with the bullpen scorching the earth.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 30, 2015 8:25:21 GMT -5
I can't really see the Sox managing to stay in the top-10, despite the heroic efforts of the bullpen. The young guys are developing too well, and Kelly and Porcello look a little too good right now (although Porcello just had one good start, maybe he can still chip in for a protected pick) ... I wouldn't be too surprised to see the Sox fall all the way to pick 14-15 at this point.
Tragically, I go into every game now thinking the Sox have a chance to win.
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Post by michael on Aug 30, 2015 11:03:16 GMT -5
I suppose that it's predundant to mention that IMO it's more the protected pick than a top pick that interests me this year.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 30, 2015 13:29:19 GMT -5
I suppose that it's predundant to mention that IMO it's more the protected pick than a top pick that interests me this year. Qualifying offer possibilities: Zimmermann Heyward Gordon Upton Samardzija Davis Kennedy? Gallardo? Not subject to QO: Price Leake Cueto Zobrist Kazmir Grienke Cespedes The only QO players I can see the Red Sox as possibilities are Zimmermann and Samardzija, so the protected pick will likely be less important this year.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 30, 2015 15:56:32 GMT -5
Well in that case,, IMO we can afford to lose a protected pick if it gives this young and younger core an opportunity to keep evolving towards standards of excellence as individuals and as a feam. It's more than developing a winning attitude, it is developing winning skillsets together for 2016.
As much as I would love to add a top 10 pick to this awesome farm system, I would be much, much, much happier knowing in late September, 2015, that we have a good shot at playing in October 2016.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Sept 1, 2015 10:13:13 GMT -5
We currently our in tenth. I wonder when we shut down our rookie pitchers?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 1, 2015 10:16:31 GMT -5
We currently our in tenth. I wonder when we shut down our rookie pitchers? We're also only 1 game behind ChiSox(2 in loss column) and two games behind Baltimore. Looks like we might catch both. ERod will prob be shut down soon. But, Porcello is back. I don't think we'll shut Henry O down. Maybe, calling Ryan Cook back up will help get some losses
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 1, 2015 10:39:38 GMT -5
It's getting to the point where we have to view games like pre-season NFL games and ignore what happens when the starting pitcher comes out.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 1, 2015 10:45:03 GMT -5
Or if you're like the Redskins up until yesterday, you ignore what happens with the starting pitcher and pay careful attention to the bullpen.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Sept 1, 2015 10:50:16 GMT -5
With the way the Sox are playing, they could reasonably drop behind the White Sox, Orioles, Indians, Rays, Angels, Diamondbacks, and Padres in draft position. Only a 4 game difference between those teams and the Sox.
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