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Post by burythehammer on May 29, 2015 20:38:14 GMT -5
Chalk up another one for Ball. I don't want to set the apologists off, but is it too much to ask that that 7th overall pick have one single start in a year and half that could be described as dominant? Even non prospects run into a couple great outings now and again.
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Post by James Dunne on May 29, 2015 20:41:30 GMT -5
I don't want to set the apologists off, Then a good start is to not refer to them as "apologists."
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 29, 2015 21:00:24 GMT -5
Chalk up another one for Ball. I don't want to set the apologists off, but is it too much to ask that that 7th overall pick have one single start in a year and half that could be described as dominant? Even non prospects run into a couple great outings now and again. Fair. I become defensive when people talk about him already being a bust, but yeah, you'd hope that the #7 pick would be doing much better than he has. My guess is that we'll never see a redraft of that year that has him going top 7. What you hope for at this point is that he winds up in the first half of the first round. That said, if it makes anyone feel better, he is definitely having a better season than either Appel or Gray, and his season has been comparable to Kohl Stewart's. (By the way, who goes no. 2 in the redraft? Crawford? Harvey?) For what it's worth, more of the same - two runs scored on a home run, two more scored in the sixth, one being an inherited runner.
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Post by burythehammer on May 29, 2015 21:32:45 GMT -5
I don't want to set the apologists off, Then a good start is to not refer to them as "apologists." I don't mean to insult anyone, I just think that's a more accurate term than "fans" or "defenders." I would never call a guy like him a bust this soon, but the reality is you have to squint pretty hard to see anything to get excited about. That's all I'm sayin. And as I type I see some BP guy on twitter who watched him tonight tabbed him as a potential 4/5 starter. That wouldn't be the end of the world to me, lest anyone think I have unrealistic expectations.
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Post by ray88h66 on May 29, 2015 21:36:22 GMT -5
Chalk up another one for Ball. I don't want to set the apologists off, but is it too much to ask that that 7th overall pick have one single start in a year and half that could be described as dominant? Even non prospects run into a couple great outings now and again. I'm very disappointed so far and don't care who is set off by that.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,912
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Post by ericmvan on May 29, 2015 23:19:31 GMT -5
Then a good start is to not refer to them as "apologists." I don't mean to insult anyone, I just think that's a more accurate term than "fans" or "defenders." I would never call a guy like him a bust this soon, but the reality is you have to squint pretty hard to see anything to get excited about. That's all I'm sayin. And as I type I see some BP guy on twitter who watched him tonight tabbed him as a potential 4/5 starter. That wouldn't be the end of the world to me, lest anyone think I have unrealistic expectations. I'm not sure he has any "fans" or "defenders," any more than there are people who think he's a bust. What he has is agnostics, on the one side, and doubters on the other. It's folks who don't see any significant positive or negative evidence, but will readily admit that the lack of the former is disappointing, versus those who see negative evidence. There's no disagreement that guys like him who have performed better than he has, have gone on to have more MLB success. The disagreement is over to what degree his lack of success so far has minimized his chances for success. Agnostics like myself see the curve plotting early success versus eventual success as pretty flat except as you get near the prodigy end (and I think the data backs that up). He's in the wide middle where it's just too early to draw conclusions. It's true that if you spell TREY BALL in lower case letters, it comes out "Ty Buttrey." We gave him #40 pick = supplemental first round money. He had an on-the-surface good season with Lowell in 2013, but with totally underwhelming K and W numbers (13.8% versus 8.3%, very close to what Ball is doing this year). Last year he was hammered, and he was looking like a bust. This year he looks like the real deal.
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Post by burythehammer on May 30, 2015 4:28:41 GMT -5
I don't mean to insult anyone, I just think that's a more accurate term than "fans" or "defenders." I would never call a guy like him a bust this soon, but the reality is you have to squint pretty hard to see anything to get excited about. That's all I'm sayin. And as I type I see some BP guy on twitter who watched him tonight tabbed him as a potential 4/5 starter. That wouldn't be the end of the world to me, lest anyone think I have unrealistic expectations. I'm not sure he has any "fans" or "defenders," That's what I meant.
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Post by stevedillard on May 30, 2015 7:46:05 GMT -5
It's true that if you spell TREY BALL in lower case letters, it comes out "Ty Buttrey." We gave him #40 pick = supplemental first round money. He had an on-the-surface good season with Lowell in 2013, but with totally underwhelming K and W numbers (13.8% versus 8.3%, very close to what Ball is doing this year). Last year he was hammered, and he was looking like a bust. This year he looks like the real deal. Excuse me, did I miss that Buttrey is the real deal? 22 inning of repeated low A ball? or the 30 inning of high A ball at a decent 7.2 K/9 rate? And part of the Ball dislike is that the obvious pick was Austin Meadows. Check out pages 7 to 12 forum.soxprospects.com/thread/845/2013-mlb-draft-discussion-thread?page=7and pages 5-7 here sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/76658-2013-mlb-draft/page-6
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 30, 2015 8:50:35 GMT -5
The thing about Trey Ball's line that gets to me is not necessarily the hits or runs..........but the K's. It blows me away that any pitcher, no matter how "raw" they are, picked number 7 in the entire draft can't miss more bats. There are many great stats addressed on this site, and I love them all, but I can't help be drawn to strikeouts.
When a pitcher is coming up thru the minors, you are looking for dominance....not just wins and loses. I remember in awe every week when I got my copy of the Sporting News and saw a fellow by the name of Dwight Gooden striking out everyone at the A level. Yes the other results were great, but his complete dominance made everyone sit up and take notice and we were sure we would see him in the Bigs.
Don't get me wrong here. I am not trying to compare Gooden to Ball, but even a young kid from the sticks who has never left the mountains until he was drafted would be whiffing more guys than our young Hoosier. I know I bought in to a young lefty with a potential 3-pitch mix who was a great athlete. Man I hope I'm wrong, but I want a little dominance peaking thru once in a while. Wind it up Trey!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 30, 2015 10:28:03 GMT -5
Split this out of the gameday thread. I don't want to completely discount this, so don't interpret the following as such. But just consider the following: 1) Part of the Meadows thing was that he was a player we all knew was in play at that pick. Part of why the Ball pick was weird is that we hadn't heard him mocked there. You could also say that J.P. Crawford and Hunter Harvey were in play at that pick, but nobody said it at the time - because what we all had read hadn't mocked them there. Those are probably prospects 2 and 3 from that draft at this point, I'd say. So along those lines, I think most of the issue is that we all hadn't had a chance to talk ourselves into Ball, even though the pre-draft rankings and mocks had 7 as only a pick or two ahead of where he'd been projected. 2) Consider that Tim Hyers, who was in the Red Sox's employ by that point, was Austin Meadows' hitting coach. They knew a lot more about him than we did. 3) Consider also that had Kohl Stewart (who's only about 3 months younger than Ball) fallen to the Red Sox and they'd selected him, we'd have practially thrown a parade. What follows are Ball and Stewart's respective lines this year in High A 47.0 ip, 49 h, 30 r, 25 er, 7 hr, 19 bb, 26 k, 1.45 whip, 3.6 bb/9, 5.0 k/9 38.2 ip, 41 h, 20 r, 15 er, 0 hr, 11 bb, 19 k, 1.35 whip, 2.6 bb/9, 4.4 k/9 So I ask, is it really THAT obvious that Stewart would've been a better pick than Ball? Just because, in hindsight at this point in 2015, we the fans would have been correct that Meadows would've been a better pick, that doesn't mean as much as it seems like it means, because we just as easily could have been wrong about it. For good measure, Clint Frazier, another "obvious" pick had he fallen, has the following line this year in High A: 210 PA, .258/.337/.385, 4 HR, 17 BB, 52 K (splitting his time between CF and RF, but that's because Bradley Zimmer's also on the roster) So like I said, perfectly fine to be disappointed with what we've seen from Ball, but while Meadows (.307/.385/.403 in High A) looks good this year and we'd have picked him ahead of Ball, that doesn't mean, for that reason alone, that we're smart and the Sox FO is stupid.
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Trey Ball
Jun 4, 2015 9:16:42 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by soxfanatic on Jun 4, 2015 9:16:42 GMT -5
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Trey Ball
Jun 4, 2015 9:55:36 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by kman22 on Jun 4, 2015 9:55:36 GMT -5
Oof, the potential to make it as a backend starter. I clicked on that link hoping for more positive information.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 4, 2015 10:23:59 GMT -5
Great GM's make bad draft picks. We need to get over this. One thing I look for is to see if our GM goes back to the same profile. Over-age HS player. In a poor-weather climate. Seems like Chavis is a bit of a resemblance to the Ball pick. He has an outstanding hit tool. But, isn't much of an athlete. And, was an older hs kid.....hmmm I hope BC picks a college kid this year and he gets canned after the season. Kopech appears to be a great prospect, but he's a long way away from helping. Enough of the high school projects.
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Post by myleskennefick on Jun 4, 2015 10:32:40 GMT -5
Great GM's make bad draft picks. We need to get over this. One thing I look for is to see if our GM goes back to the same profile. Over-age HS player. In a poor-weather climate. Seems like Chavis is a bit of a resemblance to the Ball pick. He has an outstanding hit tool. But, isn't much of an athlete. And, was an older hs kid.....hmmm I hope BC picks a college kid this year and he gets canned after the season. Kopech appears to be a great prospect, but he's a long way away from helping. Enough of the high school projects. I'm not sure I understand the argument for a quick to the majors prospect. The big league team has as much youth currently on its roster or close to it than I can remember. And the positions without a young 20 something have guys with multi-year contracts. This seems like the perfect time to look to sacrifice more immediate results for more long term value.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 4, 2015 10:36:22 GMT -5
I'm excited to have the 7th pick again and I'm in no way discouraged that Ben C. took Ball. It was a defensible pick at the time and even if he's a complete bust they have a great chance of striking gold this time. Look at the Orioles who drafted in or near the top 10 for nearly a decade. They drafted Chris Smith and then Adam Loewen with the 7th and 4th overall picks then in 2003 they took Nick Markakis 7th overall. They took Billy Rowell 9th overall in 2006 then drafted Matt Wieters 5th the following year. They Took Matt Hobgood 5th overall in 2009 and then took Machado 3rd the next year. Draft picks are lottery tickets, and higher draft picks are just lottery tickets with better odds....having a top ten pick in 3 years gives us a really really really good chance to get a great player. Trey ball will not influence our 2015 pick.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,704
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Trey Ball
Jun 4, 2015 10:38:58 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by nomar on Jun 4, 2015 10:38:58 GMT -5
I think it's good that they still project him in a major league rotation.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 4, 2015 10:45:17 GMT -5
Great GM's make bad draft picks. We need to get over this. One thing I look for is to see if our GM goes back to the same profile. Over-age HS player. In a poor-weather climate. Seems like Chavis is a bit of a resemblance to the Ball pick. He has an outstanding hit tool. But, isn't much of an athlete. And, was an older hs kid.....hmmm I hope BC picks a college kid this year and he gets canned after the season. Kopech appears to be a great prospect, but he's a long way away from helping. Enough of the high school projects. I'm not sure I understand the argument for a quick to the majors prospect. The big league team has as much youth currently on its roster or close to it than I can remember. And the positions without a young 20 something have guys with multi-year contracts. This seems like the perfect time to look to sacrifice more immediate results for more long term value. Not so much for a quicker path to the majors. More that the front office has a better feel what he can become. The high school options don't seem like good gambles this year. Though, Ian does like the Tucker kid.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 4, 2015 11:02:41 GMT -5
Last year I remember this forum being like "they need to draft high upside players" "the risk doesn't matter" when they were connected to Alex Blandino. Can't have it both ways.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 4, 2015 11:21:02 GMT -5
Thats really not a discouraging writeup at all....I think we should be pretty happy with that. In fact, I think a role 50 FV projection is still pretty generous. It sounds like some added strength and a tick up in velocity will help him moving forward. Hopefully that happens in the next 1-2 years. Patience.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 4, 2015 11:30:34 GMT -5
If he is a two-way player maybe he can go the other way if he is a bust at pitcher. Williams Jerez seems to be doing pretty well with pitching after being a bust as an outfielder.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 4, 2015 11:50:21 GMT -5
If he is a two-way player maybe he can go the other way if he is a bust at pitcher. Williams Jerez seems to be doing pretty well with pitching after being a bust as an outfielder. I think that ship has sailed. Even if he projects reasonably as a BOTRS he probably still has a higher floor as a hitter, and I'm not sure what we could reasonably expect from him facing pro pitching and facing any pitching in over two years. His projection as a pitcher at this point might not be as sexy as well all hoped, but it's probably better than how he'd do as a hitter at this point. He's going to be 21 in a few weeks and has missed precious developmental time, I'd be surprised if he made it to or past AA ball as a hitter. Best to stay the course at this point and hope he's a big leaguer who adds value.
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Post by klostrophobic on Jun 4, 2015 13:35:22 GMT -5
Last year I remember this forum being like "they need to draft high upside players" "the risk doesn't matter" when they were connected to Alex Blandino. Can't have it both ways. No one wants to draft Mookie Betts. Or Blake Swihart. Or Henry Owens. Or Michael Kopech. I find it foolish to draft based on whether a guy is coming from HS or College. Have a system that weighs the perceived potential of each player and their likelihood of reaching it and draft based on that. If you draft 50 college seniors or 50 high school kids, so be it.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 4, 2015 13:47:07 GMT -5
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 4, 2015 13:53:57 GMT -5
Last year I remember this forum being like "they need to draft high upside players" "the risk doesn't matter" when they were connected to Alex Blandino. Can't have it both ways.That's not how being an Arm Chair GM works. Only option is having it both ways.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 4, 2015 14:09:41 GMT -5
Last year I remember this forum being like "they need to draft high upside players" "the risk doesn't matter" when they were connected to Alex Blandino. Can't have it both ways.That's not how being an Arm Chair GM works. Only option is having it both ways. Except if there's no second guessing involved: Now, I grant you we are basing our views on public info, and can be wildly wrong. However, the notion that everyone was urging the "high upside" selection of Ball isn't right, and is nothing more than an attempt to minimize criticism as second guessing. Based on what we knew Ball's physical skills did not appear to be a high upside kid (high MPH), other than in a concept of a northern kid who hadn't pitched much and was tall.
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