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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,207
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Post by radiohix on May 24, 2016 16:58:55 GMT -5
Here's an extensive video of Ball's last outing
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Trey Ball
May 24, 2016 17:11:34 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on May 24, 2016 17:11:34 GMT -5
That's a real nice look at him. He seems to hide the ball pretty well, and repeats his delivery. Seems to have a short stride though, a lot of arm but not optimal use of his legs. Added leg strength, more drive, might give him better finish, some more downward plane, and definitely some velocity. Thanks for the video!
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Post by jimed14 on May 24, 2016 17:14:12 GMT -5
Wow, his hair has grown. And that curve and change definitely flash plus.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 24, 2016 17:28:57 GMT -5
The difference is staggering and we're not speaking end results here (ERA, WHIP, that kind of stuff): It's command/control/pitchability Raudes is sporting a 4.75 K/BB rate in Low A as the SECOND youngest player in the league (His K%-BB% is the 8th in the league with a bunch of 22 years olds in front of him) while Ball has a very mediocre 1.58 K/BB while being 3 years and 8 months older and pitching at only 1 level above. There's also the stuff: The FB velocity is quite the same (89-92 mph range) and Raudes has a better breaking ball. Also, I've been hearing this "stuff won't play at full season ball (see the scouting page here)" critic last year and here we are, he's pitching very very well. In fact, the way the team has been pushing him leads me to think that they're very high on him at least higher than this scouts you're refering to. Like many ssaid here, if you take that 7th overall credential, he won't crack the top 20. Raudes sits 88-90 and touches 92. Ball sits 90-92 and has touched 95. That is a very significant difference - it means that Ball sits at a velocity that Raudes might hit once or twice a game. And Ball does it from the left side. While Raudes has an above-average to potentially plus breaking ball, Ball has the same with his changeup. Reports have Ball's slider/cutter as much better than Raudes' changeup. Ball has the much better pitcher's frame - that he's five inches taller and athletic is not an insignificant point. Raudes is going to move up in the June 1 rankings update, for sure, but I for one will still have Ball well ahead of him and I presume the other guys will as well.
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wbcd
Rookie
Posts: 33
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Post by wbcd on May 25, 2016 7:28:53 GMT -5
Yep, I'm having a hard time understanding why he's ahead of someone like Raudes in the ranking here. One reason and one reason only - Ball is a lefty. Raudes is not.
Think about it this way. LHP in the majors average approximately 2 mph less on their fastballs than RHP. So Ball throwing between 89 and 93 is like a RHP throwing between 91 and 95. I said earlier there are 27 LH starting pitchers who average more than 91 mph on their fastball. There are something like 60 RH pitchers (rounding up). Plus LHPs have a much better platoon advantage than RHPs because of their overall effectiveness against RH batters.
If Ball threw righty, he'd be playing outfield right now.
I'm trying to convince my five year old nephew to throw lefthanded. It's not taking yet, but I'm still hopeful. :-)
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Post by justen on May 25, 2016 11:41:50 GMT -5
Here's an extensive video of Ball's last outing Sweet look. Agree that the curve and change both look potentially nasty. I'm no scout, but did anyone else notice from this video how quickly Ball's right shoulder flies open before he delivers the pitch, leading to all those high fastballs that get away from him? Seems like something pretty correctable to me. Once he starts to get that fastball low the curve and change become that much better. And if he controls his shoulder and drives toward the plate a bit more, it should tick up his velocity, and command.
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Post by adamgregory81 on May 25, 2016 11:59:12 GMT -5
Wow, his hair has grown. And that curve and change definitely flash plus. He was sitting directly in front of me in Salem two weeks ago taking notes on Lynchburg hitters and I didn't recognize him till the 4th inning.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 25, 2016 12:22:22 GMT -5
HIs change really does look good. And that fastball looks good enough ... but it's hard for me to tell from this camera angle, but does his curve come from a slightly different arm slot than his fastball/change? Looks like he wraps his arm around it just a little bit, maybe?
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 25, 2016 12:56:36 GMT -5
Here's an extensive video of Ball's last outing At first glance, it looked like Heath Hembree learned how to throw left handed....kidding aside, thank you for this video.
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Post by borisman on May 25, 2016 15:52:05 GMT -5
A couple of nice cutters there also. He started out looking like Henry Owens and ended up looking more like Price He definitely threw a little harder as his outing was coming to a close.
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Post by ramireja on May 25, 2016 15:58:52 GMT -5
The difference is staggering and we're not speaking end results here (ERA, WHIP, that kind of stuff): It's command/control/pitchability Raudes is sporting a 4.75 K/BB rate in Low A as the SECOND youngest player in the league (His K%-BB% is the 8th in the league with a bunch of 22 years olds in front of him) while Ball has a very mediocre 1.58 K/BB while being 3 years and 8 months older and pitching at only 1 level above. There's also the stuff: The FB velocity is quite the same (89-92 mph range) and Raudes has a better breaking ball. Also, I've been hearing this "stuff won't play at full season ball (see the scouting page here)" critic last year and here we are, he's pitching very very well. In fact, the way the team has been pushing him leads me to think that they're very high on him at least higher than this scouts you're refering to. Like many ssaid here, if you take that 7th overall credential, he won't crack the top 20. Raudes sits 88-90 and touches 92. Ball sits 90-92 and has touched 95. That is a very significant difference - it means that Ball sits at a velocity that Raudes might hit once or twice a game. And Ball does it from the left side. While Raudes has an above-average to potentially plus breaking ball, Ball has the same with his changeup. Reports have Ball's slider/cutter as much better than Raudes' changeup. Ball has the much better pitcher's frame - that he's five inches taller and athletic is not an insignificant point. Raudes is going to move up in the June 1 rankings update, for sure, but I for one will still have Ball well ahead of him and I presume the other guys will as well. I don't disagree with anything you said regarding their stuff, but in a discussion of who should rank higher, there are three important factors independent of current 'stuff' that give Raudes the edge IMO: 1. The control (and I'm assuming command) of Raudes seems superior. 2. It may also be that Raudes impressive stat line to date is partly a function of superior pitchability too which needs to factor into rankings. His advanced pitchability has been noted in scouting reports outside of this site. 3. Ball is 21 now and Raudes is only 18. Thats not to say Ball is a finished product, but even without the ideal pitching frame, I think Raudes has more projection left than Ball given that Raudes is only the age of a high school senior. By projection, not only am I referring to something like increased velocity but also development of secondaries and/or additions of new pitches.
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Trey Ball
May 25, 2016 16:34:41 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dnfl333 on May 25, 2016 16:34:41 GMT -5
The great Randy Johnson took "time" as well.
Think DD has learned from his mistake?
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Post by jimed14 on May 25, 2016 16:59:04 GMT -5
Raudes sits 88-90 and touches 92. Ball sits 90-92 and has touched 95. That is a very significant difference - it means that Ball sits at a velocity that Raudes might hit once or twice a game. And Ball does it from the left side. While Raudes has an above-average to potentially plus breaking ball, Ball has the same with his changeup. Reports have Ball's slider/cutter as much better than Raudes' changeup. Ball has the much better pitcher's frame - that he's five inches taller and athletic is not an insignificant point. Raudes is going to move up in the June 1 rankings update, for sure, but I for one will still have Ball well ahead of him and I presume the other guys will as well. I don't disagree with anything you said regarding their stuff, but in a discussion of who should rank higher, there are three important factors independent of current 'stuff' that give Raudes the edge IMO: 1. The control (and I'm assuming command) of Raudes seems superior. 2. It may also be that Raudes impressive stat line to date is partly a function of superior pitchability too which needs to factor into rankings. His advanced pitchability has been noted in scouting reports outside of this site. 3. Ball is 21 now and Raudes is only 18. Thats not to say Ball is a finished product, but even without the ideal pitching frame, I think Raudes has more projection left than Ball given that Raudes is only the age of a high school senior. By projection, not only am I referring to something like increased velocity but also development of secondaries and/or additions of new pitches. Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't there been about 10,000 16 year old pitching prospects who were super advanced for their age and dominated the DR league and low minors only to quickly flame out because they don't have the stuff to make it higher? It seems a lot more likely that a pitching prospect develops command/control than it does that their stuff improves significantly.
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Post by ramireja on May 25, 2016 17:10:00 GMT -5
I don't disagree with anything you said regarding their stuff, but in a discussion of who should rank higher, there are three important factors independent of current 'stuff' that give Raudes the edge IMO: 1. The control (and I'm assuming command) of Raudes seems superior. 2. It may also be that Raudes impressive stat line to date is partly a function of superior pitchability too which needs to factor into rankings. His advanced pitchability has been noted in scouting reports outside of this site. 3. Ball is 21 now and Raudes is only 18. Thats not to say Ball is a finished product, but even without the ideal pitching frame, I think Raudes has more projection left than Ball given that Raudes is only the age of a high school senior. By projection, not only am I referring to something like increased velocity but also development of secondaries and/or additions of new pitches. Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't there been about 10,000 16 year old pitching prospects who were super advanced for their age and dominated the DR league and low minors only to quickly flame out because they don't have the stuff to make it higher? It seems a lot more likely that a pitching prospect develops command/control than it does that their stuff improves significantly. See I wouldn't lump in 'low minors' with the DR league. I think your comment definitely pertains to the DR league, but I think its pretty rare historically for an 18 year old to have this level of success in full season ball. I'm also not sure that Raudes needs to improve his stuff significantly. Reports have him sitting 88-90 here, I've read 90-91 elsewhere. Apparently he can touch 93. He was only low to mid 80's when he signed so I don't think its unreasonable to think that this natural growth and strengthening regimen could have him sitting 91-93. If he already has an above average to plus curve, then he needs to develop an average to above-average third pitch (likely the change). Thats also not unreasonable for a player as young as Raudes.
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Post by brnichols19873 on May 25, 2016 20:23:22 GMT -5
I don't disagree with anything you said regarding their stuff, but in a discussion of who should rank higher, there are three important factors independent of current 'stuff' that give Raudes the edge IMO: 1. The control (and I'm assuming command) of Raudes seems superior. 2. It may also be that Raudes impressive stat line to date is partly a function of superior pitchability too which needs to factor into rankings. His advanced pitchability has been noted in scouting reports outside of this site. 3. Ball is 21 now and Raudes is only 18. Thats not to say Ball is a finished product, but even without the ideal pitching frame, I think Raudes has more projection left than Ball given that Raudes is only the age of a high school senior. By projection, not only am I referring to something like increased velocity but also development of secondaries and/or additions of new pitches. Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't there been about 10,000 16 year old pitching prospects who were super advanced for their age and dominated the DR league and low minors only to quickly flame out because they don't have the stuff to make it higher? It seems a lot more likely that a pitching prospect develops command/control than it does that their stuff improves significantly. Since 2010 just one 18 year old pitcher has qualified in the sally league so to be clear no pitchers this young have even been this advanced yet alone dominated the league in recent years quite like Raudes has, regardless of nationality....
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Post by libertine on May 25, 2016 21:37:42 GMT -5
Getting back to Ball...
Being drafted out of HS, not throwing the curve until his junior year, and having no slider until he was in the pros in 2015 I felt he could be a slow developer. He is still on the lanky side so as he continues to physically fill out he could tick up a mile or hour, or two, in FB velocity. And it appears the development process is showing real progress now.
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Trey Ball
Jun 6, 2016 19:27:52 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dnfl333 on Jun 6, 2016 19:27:52 GMT -5
Zero progress tonight.
Any thoughts on tonight's performance? One step forward two steps back?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,703
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Post by nomar on Jun 6, 2016 19:34:11 GMT -5
The great Randy Johnson took "time" as well. Think DD has learned from his mistake? Randy Johnson still had electric velocity, and got Ks. Ball literally isn't doing a single thing above average. All you can do is hope he's good enough to be a middle reliever, or a loogy, and even those aren't looking too likely.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 6, 2016 20:28:46 GMT -5
Ball keeps getting that ball up in the zone. That's probably a big part of his problems. I'm encouraged. He looks like he is coachable at least. He's changing speeds well. Developing his pitching skill overall. Command looks rough still but he does look like he has the athleticism to still improve that delivery and control over time. He's a very athletic kid. I can see why the scouts liked him in terms of his athleticism and size. He probably never develops John Lester type stuff but he may have even more athleticism and body control. It may all just start clicking for him someday as his control gets refined. My recommendation is a lot of innings pitched for him over the next 2-3 years.
My problems with his initial draft was just how thin he was and being from a cold area with not a lot of games under his belt. Sometimes guys can look a lot better when the competition level is not ideal. My bet is they were impressed with his athleticism and intangibles. I'm sincerely encouraged.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 6, 2016 21:54:23 GMT -5
The great Randy Johnson took "time" as well. Think DD has learned from his mistake? Let's flip this around. If Dombrowski could get today's equivalent of Mark Langston in 1989 with Trey Ball as a centerpiece, are you arguing he shouldn't do it? Because, as someone who has preached patience with Ball, if they can get Stephen Strasburg or Chris Sale for him I think I'd like to see Dombrowski pull the trigger.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 6, 2016 22:09:51 GMT -5
They missed on him. Time to move on, hardly the 1st or last time a team missed on a high pick.
Edit: move on meaning from following his every pitch religiously, not like releasing him or something.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 7, 2016 13:03:38 GMT -5
I'm still convinced they should've developed him as an OF. He could hit with some power in HS and had decent wheels. Needed to cut the swing down a bit but what high schooler doesn't?
That was a tough draft year as it was pretty top-heavy. I remember I and several of us were all in on Moran, Meadows and Shipley. Moran went before Ball so that was moot. They're all lottery tickets to a degree, and Ball may still end up being a decent reliever, but they definitely guessed wrong on this. They did get some decent lottery tickets further down though with Romanski, Dubon and Longhi. Nothing is guaranteed but all could develop into seeing MLB time. Romanski in particular must be loving the current low offensive threshold for catchers. If he can stay within .030 or so of his current OBP, he's an MLB starting catcher for someone.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 8, 2016 11:20:05 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't there been about 10,000 16 year old pitching prospects who were super advanced for their age and dominated the DR league and low minors only to quickly flame out because they don't have the stuff to make it higher? It seems a lot more likely that a pitching prospect develops command/control than it does that their stuff improves significantly. See I wouldn't lump in 'low minors' with the DR league. I think your comment definitely pertains to the DR league, but I think its pretty rare historically for an 18 year old to have this level of success in full season ball. I'm also not sure that Raudes needs to improve his stuff significantly. Reports have him sitting 88-90 here, I've read 90-91 elsewhere. Apparently he can touch 93. He was only low to mid 80's when he signed so I don't think its unreasonable to think that this natural growth and strengthening regimen could have him sitting 91-93. If he already has an above average to plus curve, then he needs to develop an average to above-average third pitch (likely the change). Thats also not unreasonable for a player as young as Raudes. Agree. I have read that there is a pretty significant jump even from the DR to the Gulf Coast League.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 5, 2016 12:35:29 GMT -5
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Post by theolearyfactor on Jul 5, 2016 14:41:53 GMT -5
Maybe it's just me but I'm finding the impatience with Trey Ball to be incredibly off-putting. The Sox drafted a pitcher from a cold weather state who wasn't even throwing curve balls in high school. He came to us a raw player and has lost time to injuries... he hasn't been amazingly statistically, but that was to be expected. Given the time missed to injury, he's behind developmentally but to look at him today and dismiss his future as a pitcher is foolhardy. We drafted him 7th for a reason and he should be given reasonable opportunity to succeed before converting him to OF.
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