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Post by jmei on Jun 9, 2015 12:08:41 GMT -5
we've seen very limited improvement. I really disagree with this. His secondaries and his willingness to use them have shown a lot of improvement, as have his mechanics. Fair enough-- he has improved since he was drafted, but all that really underscores is how raw he was when he was drafted. The point is that his scouting report still relies on tons of projection before he starts looking like a major leaguer. 18-year-olds who rely heavily on projection are fine, but 21-year-olds who do so are a little more worrisome. He's a year and change younger, so this is somewhat of an unfair comparison, but you'd have to take Ty Buttrey's present stuff/command over Ball's, right?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2015 12:32:44 GMT -5
I really disagree with this. His secondaries and his willingness to use them have shown a lot of improvement, as have his mechanics. Fair enough-- he has improved since he was drafted, but all that really underscores is how raw he was when he was drafted. The point is that his scouting report still relies on tons of projection before he starts looking like a major leaguer. 18-year-olds who rely heavily on projection are fine, but 21-year-olds who do so are a little more worrisome. He's a year and change younger, so this is somewhat of an unfair comparison, but you'd have to take Ty Buttrey's present stuff/command over Ball's, right? Fair on the first part. As for the Buttrey comparison, I haven't seen either recently enough to say. Sorry to cop out. Ian would be the one to ask. Might be good discussion for the pod - I like the question.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jun 9, 2015 13:56:22 GMT -5
I really disagree with this. His secondaries and his willingness to use them have shown a lot of improvement, as have his mechanics. Fair enough-- he has improved since he was drafted, but all that really underscores is how raw he was when he was drafted. The point is that his scouting report still relies on tons of projection before he starts looking like a major leaguer. 18-year-olds who rely heavily on projection are fine, but 21-year-olds who do so are a little more worrisome. He's a year and change younger, so this is somewhat of an unfair comparison, but you'd have to take Ty Buttrey's present stuff/command over Ball's, right? Not sure about fairness, but I think it works against your point a little bit ... last year, Ty Buttrey was worse than Trey Ball at Greenville at the same age/experience Trey Ball is now. I'm not saying I'm excited about Trey Ball. I mean, it's telling that Kopech is clearly a better prospect, and he's younger and was drafted later. But I'm still in wait-and-see mode with him. It'd be better if he was better, but it's not bad (yet) that he's not.
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Post by jmei on Jun 9, 2015 14:21:07 GMT -5
Not sure about fairness, but I think it works against your point a little bit ... last year, Ty Buttrey was worse than Trey Ball at Greenville at the same age/experience Trey Ball is now. You're absolutely right. But Ty Buttrey ended last season as the SoxProspects 55th ranked prospect and was voted as the 75th best prospect in the system by the forum, so I tend to think that that comparison is more damning with faint praise than reason for optimism. I do agree that, just like Buttrey, it's possible Ball makes a big jump in the second half this year or next year. He definitely has that upside. I'm just increasingly less confident that he'll ever get there.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jun 9, 2015 15:29:40 GMT -5
Not sure about fairness, but I think it works against your point a little bit ... last year, Ty Buttrey was worse than Trey Ball at Greenville at the same age/experience Trey Ball is now. You're absolutely right. But Ty Buttrey ended last season as the SoxProspects 55th ranked prospect and was voted as the 75th best prospect in the system by the forum, so I tend to think that that comparison is more damning with faint praise than reason for optimism. I do agree that, just like Buttrey, it's possible Ball makes a big jump in the second half this year or next year. He definitely has that upside. I'm just increasingly less confident that he'll ever get there. Sure, fair enough ... I mean, Ball is starting from a higher floor than Buttrey, but "damning with faint praise" is a very accurate description of that point ...
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Post by okin15 on Jun 9, 2015 15:31:14 GMT -5
Not sure about fairness, but I think it works against your point a little bit ... last year, Ty Buttrey was worse than Trey Ball at Greenville at the same age/experience Trey Ball is now. You're absolutely right. But Ty Buttrey ended last season as the SoxProspects 55th ranked prospect and was voted as the 75th best prospect in the system by the forum, so I tend to think that that comparison is more damning with faint praise than reason for optimism. I do agree that, just like Buttrey, it's possible Ball makes a big jump in the second half this year or next year. He definitely has that upside. I'm just increasingly less confident that he'll ever get there. In some ways, I think their respective high school track records (by which I mostly mean amateur scouting reports) play into this opinion as well. Buttrey had a bit more stuff than Ball at the time, but of course, he was older and had played more baseball. Also, he isn't a LHP, nor does he have the famed make-up or frame of Trey Ball. Ball was mostly a dream that has yet to be realized, while Buttrey had a bit of history, along with some dream, and then of course is also showing signs of that dream coming true. Hopefully, Ball will follow in his footsteps and make real that hope.
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Trey Ball
Jun 9, 2015 19:13:12 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Jun 9, 2015 19:13:12 GMT -5
I think a lot of people look at Ball's K/9 or K/BB rates and decide "this guy doesn't throw hard enough," or "this guy doesn't have good stuff." I think that's a mistake. A high K rate in the low minors is often badly deceptive...soft-tossers with solid-average secondaries and three pitches can look outstanding in low A or even high A, but never go anywhere. Likewise, hard throwers (Pat Light being a recent example) can struggle badly to miss bats even if they have good pure stuff but middling command. I genuinely hold out hope that Ball is still developing FB velocity and command, and that once his curve sees some work, combined with his already solid change, he'll have a quality 3-pitch mix. Yeah, I'd be more encouraged if he were getting a K/IP and 2bb/9, but he's only 21, and he's in high A ball. He's also improved incrementally each of the last two years, and he's still on pace (with a year per level) to make the majors before he's 24. He's athletic, with a low-mileage arm, and he's getting better despite moving up the ladder. All good signs. As is this: m.milb.com/t414/2015_06_09_salafa_lynafa_1The dominating start people were waiting for. 4 baserunners in 5.2 with 9 Ks.
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Trey Ball
Jun 9, 2015 19:16:46 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Jun 9, 2015 19:16:46 GMT -5
You're absolutely right. But Ty Buttrey ended last season as the SoxProspects 55th ranked prospect and was voted as the 75th best prospect in the system by the forum, so I tend to think that that comparison is more damning with faint praise than reason for optimism. I do agree that, just like Buttrey, it's possible Ball makes a big jump in the second half this year or next year. He definitely has that upside. I'm just increasingly less confident that he'll ever get there. In some ways, I think their respective high school track records (by which I mostly mean amateur scouting reports) play into this opinion as well. Buttrey had a bit more stuff than Ball at the time, but of course, he was older and had played more baseball. Also, he isn't a LHP, nor does he have the famed make-up or frame of Trey Ball. Ball was mostly a dream that has yet to be realized, while Buttrey had a bit of history, along with some dream, and then of course is also showing signs of that dream coming true. Hopefully, Ball will follow in his footsteps and make real that hope. Great points. I think patience is the key with Trey Ball. FWIW, he does strike me as the type of person who is fairly likely to realize those dreams. He, and the team, know it's going to take work.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 9, 2015 19:22:38 GMT -5
For perspective, he's less than a month older than Andrew Benintendi, who was likewise young for a college draftee. Ball will, if he continues his consistent improvement, be starting next year in AA before he turns 22. Even if Benintendi starts in Salem, Ball will be a full level ahead of him, at essentially the same age. Starting a season at AA before one's 22nd birthday is nothing to sneeze at.
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Post by raftsox on Jun 10, 2015 15:29:40 GMT -5
When you go with a raw HS arm at #7, you better believe that a back-end starter ceiling is not what you're aiming for. The back-round starter is his median projection, not his ceiling. That said, if you gave me odds right now on whether Ball accumulates 6 WAR over his first six major league seasons (roughly the average outcome for a #7 pick), I'd take the under. I know it's still early, but it's been two years now and Ball turns 21 this month, and I just don't see a lot there. Maybe that changes, and I'm obviously rooting for him to succeed, but it shouldn't be outlandish to suggest that he's been disappointing so far. True, and I would also take the under, but a lot can happen with young pitchers. Look at Lester for a perfect world example: velocity jump and vastly improved command within a year. With all of these pitchers I'm willing to wait until they actually fail. A more recent example would be the two terrible seasons Ty Buttrey put up followed by this apparent corner turning.
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Post by templeusox on Jun 10, 2015 15:40:11 GMT -5
He's fine. He was drafted as a raw athlete they wanted to develop into a pitcher. In his second full year, he's holding his own in A+. Yea, nothing he has done is spectacular. But you're just hoping that he strengthens out and starts converting that athleticism into velocity. If not, those are the breaks with drafting raw pitchers out of high school. The 10% chance that he turns into a great pitcher only happens 1 out of 10 times. You at least have to give him three years, or the time he would be draft-eligible again, before he's dismissed.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 10, 2015 16:10:52 GMT -5
He's fine. He was drafted as a raw athlete they wanted to develop into a pitcher. In his second full year, he's holding his own in A+. Yea, nothing he has done is spectacular. But you're just hoping that he strengthens out and starts converting that athleticism into velocity. If not, those are the breaks with drafting raw pitchers out of high school. The 10% chance that he turns into a great pitcher only happens 1 out of 10 times. You at least have to give him three years, or the time he would be draft-eligible again, before he's dismissed. I've said this before....but I think the Ball pick was a mistake. You don't draft raw athletes that you hope to turn into pitchers in the top ten. In the back half of the first round if you have multiple picks? Sure....but not in the top ten. You don't draft a high school pitcher in the top ten unless he has amazing present stuff. I wanted Shipley at the time... and Meadows would have been a better pick too.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 10, 2015 17:04:20 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier While recording career-high 9 Ks Tuesday, Hi-A Salem LHP Trey Ball got 11 swings/misses on fastball w/ best curve of season. Upside glimpse.
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Trey Ball
Jun 10, 2015 18:00:09 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Jun 10, 2015 18:00:09 GMT -5
Not sure about fairness, but I think it works against your point a little bit ... last year, Ty Buttrey was worse than Trey Ball at Greenville at the same age/experience Trey Ball is now. You're absolutely right. But Ty Buttrey ended last season as the SoxProspects 55th ranked prospect and was voted as the 75th best prospect in the system by the forum, so I tend to think that that comparison is more damning with faint praise than reason for optimism. I do agree that, just like Buttrey, it's possible Ball makes a big jump in the second half this year or next year. He definitely has that upside. I'm just increasingly less confident that he'll ever get there. Buttrey earned his low ranking with very poor performance last year. He got late first-round money...it's not like he was an out-of-nowhere guy. He's talented and has a long history of performance. Using Buttrey's ranking in that manner of comparison is disingenuous. Ball is over a year younger, and started the year at Salem...over the past five starts, he's out-pitched Buttrey, at the same level. Except he's a lefty. With projection. From a cold-weather state. Who was very raw when drafted. Revisit your comparison: Buttrey was a sandwich-rd talent from NC with a long pitching history who happened to fall to the 4th rd, probably in part to bonus demands. Ball was the 7th overall pick, based largely on projection. This year, during the time they've *both* been at Salem, Ball has been the better pitcher, is a year younger, and has more reasonable expectation to approach, even raise, his ceiling. Leaving the *highly* subjective SP rankings out of it, Ball is the better prospect, and most people are excited/happy with Buttrey's revival this year.
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Post by rafael on Jun 10, 2015 18:37:22 GMT -5
You're absolutely right. But Ty Buttrey ended last season as the SoxProspects 55th ranked prospect and was voted as the 75th best prospect in the system by the forum, so I tend to think that that comparison is more damning with faint praise than reason for optimism. I do agree that, just like Buttrey, it's possible Ball makes a big jump in the second half this year or next year. He definitely has that upside. I'm just increasingly less confident that he'll ever get there. Buttrey earned his low ranking with very poor performance last year. He got late first-round money...it's not like he was an out-of-nowhere guy. He's talented and has a long history of performance. Using Buttrey's ranking in that manner of comparison is disingenuous. Ball is over a year younger, and started the year at Salem...over the past five starts, he's out-pitched Buttrey, at the same level. Except he's a lefty. With projection. From a cold-weather state. Who was very raw when drafted. Revisit your comparison: Buttrey was a sandwich-rd talent from NC with a long pitching history who happened to fall to the 4th rd, probably in part to bonus demands. Ball was the 7th overall pick, based largely on projection. This year, during the time they've *both* been at Salem, Ball has been the better pitcher, is a year younger, and has more reasonable expectation to approach, even raise, his ceiling. Leaving the *highly* subjective SP rankings out of it, Ball is the better prospect, and most people are excited/happy with Buttrey's revival this year. Buttrey has pitched better than Ball in Salem and it is not close.
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Trey Ball
Jun 10, 2015 18:42:35 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Jun 10, 2015 18:42:35 GMT -5
Buttrey earned his low ranking with very poor performance last year. He got late first-round money...it's not like he was an out-of-nowhere guy. He's talented and has a long history of performance. Using Buttrey's ranking in that manner of comparison is disingenuous. Ball is over a year younger, and started the year at Salem...over the past five starts, he's out-pitched Buttrey, at the same level. Except he's a lefty. With projection. From a cold-weather state. Who was very raw when drafted. Revisit your comparison: Buttrey was a sandwich-rd talent from NC with a long pitching history who happened to fall to the 4th rd, probably in part to bonus demands. Ball was the 7th overall pick, based largely on projection. This year, during the time they've *both* been at Salem, Ball has been the better pitcher, is a year younger, and has more reasonable expectation to approach, even raise, his ceiling. Leaving the *highly* subjective SP rankings out of it, Ball is the better prospect, and most people are excited/happy with Buttrey's revival this year. Buttrey has pitched better than Ball in Salem and it is not close. "This year, during the time they've *both* been at Salem, Ball has been the better pitcher" Hence, the emphasis on BOTH. So, while Buttrey may have better overall results in half as many starts, my original comment is accurate. Since Buttrey was promoted, Ball has performed better. Ball's ERA his past 5-6 starts is in the mid-1s.
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2015 19:06:09 GMT -5
You're absolutely right. But Ty Buttrey ended last season as the SoxProspects 55th ranked prospect and was voted as the 75th best prospect in the system by the forum, so I tend to think that that comparison is more damning with faint praise than reason for optimism. I do agree that, just like Buttrey, it's possible Ball makes a big jump in the second half this year or next year. He definitely has that upside. I'm just increasingly less confident that he'll ever get there. Buttrey earned his low ranking with very poor performance last year. He got late first-round money...it's not like he was an out-of-nowhere guy. He's talented and has a long history of performance. Using Buttrey's ranking in that manner of comparison is disingenuous. Ball is over a year younger, and started the year at Salem...over the past five starts, he's out-pitched Buttrey, at the same level. Except he's a lefty. With projection. From a cold-weather state. Who was very raw when drafted. Revisit your comparison: Buttrey was a sandwich-rd talent from NC with a long pitching history who happened to fall to the 4th rd, probably in part to bonus demands. Ball was the 7th overall pick, based largely on projection. This year, during the time they've *both* been at Salem, Ball has been the better pitcher, is a year younger, and has more reasonable expectation to approach, even raise, his ceiling. Leaving the *highly* subjective SP rankings out of it, Ball is the better prospect, and most people are excited/happy with Buttrey's revival this year. I don't think Ball's draft slot should really affect how we evaluate him anymore, now that he's had two years in the system. Obviously, the things that led him to get drafted high still matter (projectable frame/mechanics, lefty, etc.), but when he got drafted is not going to independently affect how good of a baseball player he is going to be going forward, and as such, shouldn't really be part of the overall calculus. I've already acknowledged that Ball's age-advanceness makes the Buttrey comparison imperfect, and Ball is still the better prospect because of it. But even in the (pretty arbitrary) five-game sample you cite, Ball has a 4.57 FIP and almost as many walks as strikeouts (5.27 K/9, 4.28 BB/9), all this in spite of his 9 strikeout game last night (Buttrey has a 2.96 FIP in Salem, by the way). If they both end the season with similar stats and scouting profiles to what they've done so far, Buttrey is definitely the better prospect, right?
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Trey Ball
Jun 10, 2015 19:08:14 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Jun 10, 2015 19:08:14 GMT -5
I stand corrected. Since Buttrey was promoted, Ball has seven starts, and a 2.84 ERA in those 38 innings, with 34 H, and a 22:19 K:BB ratio (yikes). In his last five starts, his ERA is 1.32 in 27.1 IP. Since promotion Buttrey is 2.40 in 30 IP over five starts, with a lower WHIP and a 2:1 K:BB rate. So looking at their last five, Ball has a slight edge; since Buttrey's promotion, he has the edge. Either way, Ball is over a year younger and started the year at a higher level. People are writing him off *way* too soon. If he's in AA at this time next year and pitching roughly as well as he is now, that's a very reasonable approximation of what one can expect from a top-10 collegiate pitcher (see, Appell, Gray, Shipley, etc.). The Trey Ball angst is silly IMO.
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Trey Ball
Jun 10, 2015 19:22:32 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Jun 10, 2015 19:22:32 GMT -5
Buttrey earned his low ranking with very poor performance last year. He got late first-round money...it's not like he was an out-of-nowhere guy. He's talented and has a long history of performance. Using Buttrey's ranking in that manner of comparison is disingenuous. Ball is over a year younger, and started the year at Salem...over the past five starts, he's out-pitched Buttrey, at the same level. Except he's a lefty. With projection. From a cold-weather state. Who was very raw when drafted. Revisit your comparison: Buttrey was a sandwich-rd talent from NC with a long pitching history who happened to fall to the 4th rd, probably in part to bonus demands. Ball was the 7th overall pick, based largely on projection. This year, during the time they've *both* been at Salem, Ball has been the better pitcher, is a year younger, and has more reasonable expectation to approach, even raise, his ceiling. Leaving the *highly* subjective SP rankings out of it, Ball is the better prospect, and most people are excited/happy with Buttrey's revival this year. I don't think Ball's draft slot should really affect how we evaluate him anymore, now that he's had two years in the system. Obviously, the things that led him to get drafted high still matter (projectable frame/mechanics, lefty, etc.), but when he got drafted is not going to independently affect how good of a baseball player he is going to be going forward, and as such, shouldn't really be part of the overall calculus. I've already acknowledged that Ball's age-advanceness makes the Buttrey comparison imperfect, and Ball is still the better prospect because of it. But even in the (pretty arbitrary) five-game sample you cite, Ball has a 4.57 FIP and almost as many walks as strikeouts (5.27 K/9, 4.28 BB/9), all this in spite of his 9 strikeout game last night (Buttrey has a 2.96 FIP in Salem, by the way). If they both end the season with similar stats and scouting profiles to what they've done so far, Buttrey is definitely the better prospect, right? I'd say it would be very close. If Ball repeated the level next year and couldn't replicate Buttrey's performance, then yes, potentially. Fwiw, that timeframe was not arbitrary, it was a choice of the only timeframe in which they can be directly compared...when they're on the same team, same catchers, same defense, etc. The reality is that prospect development is fluid, not static. Buttrey is reaping the benefits of having had things "click," for whatever reason. He's going to continue to develop, by incremental small changes, or more leaps (or, hopefully not, regression). The same can be said for Ball. He's shown steady improvement, with no real leaps (although one could argue the second half at Greenville might qualify in 2014). He's younger and has pitched more games at the same level. FIP is a good metric, but it's not the end-all, and while it eliminates some of the "noise" in ERA, it also favors pitchers who miss bats. Regardless, I maintain my point that people underestimate Ball's success. I think it's largely because of his draft position and weak K rates. I also expect that, as he starts using both secondaries and improves his fastball command (which is exactly why his "rawness" at the time of the draft is still very much germane), his K rates will come up, BB rates will drop, and his results will continue to get better. Put another way, he's way ahead of where Buttrey was at a similar age.
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2015 19:33:21 GMT -5
I stand corrected. Since Buttrey was promoted, Ball has seven starts, and a 2.84 ERA in those 38 innings, with 34 H, and a 22:19 K:BB ratio (yikes). In his last five starts, his ERA is 1.32 in 27.1 IP. Since promotion Buttrey is 2.40 in 30 IP over five starts, with a lower WHIP and a 2:1 K:BB rate. So looking at their last five, Ball has a slight edge; since Buttrey's promotion, he has the edge. Either way, Ball is over a year younger and started the year at a higher level. People are writing him off *way* too soon. If he's in AA at this time next year and pitching roughly as well as he is now, that's a very reasonable approximation of what one can expect from a top-10 collegiate pitcher (see, Appell, Gray, Shipley, etc.). The Trey Ball angst is silly IMO. Honest question: if, two years ago, someone handed you a comprehensive scouting report and statistical profile of the current version of Trey Ball and told you that this was what he was going to be in two years, would you be happy with that future? For me, the answer is no, and I don't think that's unreasonable to say. Missing bats is important, and he's shown a pretty significant inability to do so, at least so far. And this might just be semantics, but the fact that I'm disappointed in him does not mean that I am dismissing him or writing him off or calling him a bust. I absolutely still think he has the upside to be a very good major league pitcher. I just think the odds of that happening are lower now than I did two years ago.
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Post by arzjake on Jun 10, 2015 19:44:09 GMT -5
Patience Gentlemen, Patience....
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 10, 2015 19:44:48 GMT -5
Trey Ball turned his season around last year in the second half and perhaps he's repeating that trend now a bit early. However one thing that's been missing has been the swing and miss stuff; last night was just one start but if we can see some more results like that I'll be pumped.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 10, 2015 20:40:32 GMT -5
I stand corrected. Since Buttrey was promoted, Ball has seven starts, and a 2.84 ERA in those 38 innings, with 34 H, and a 22:19 K:BB ratio (yikes). In his last five starts, his ERA is 1.32 in 27.1 IP. Since promotion Buttrey is 2.40 in 30 IP over five starts, with a lower WHIP and a 2:1 K:BB rate. So looking at their last five, Ball has a slight edge; since Buttrey's promotion, he has the edge. Either way, Ball is over a year younger and started the year at a higher level. People are writing him off *way* too soon. If he's in AA at this time next year and pitching roughly as well as he is now, that's a very reasonable approximation of what one can expect from a top-10 collegiate pitcher (see, Appell, Gray, Shipley, etc.). The Trey Ball angst is silly IMO. Honest question: if, two years ago, someone handed you a comprehensive scouting report and statistical profile of the current version of Trey Ball and told you that this was what he was going to be in two years, would you be happy with that future? For me, the answer is no, and I don't think that's unreasonable to say. Missing bats is important, and he's shown a pretty significant inability to do so, at least so far. And this might just be semantics, but the fact that I'm disappointed in him does not mean that I am dismissing him or writing him off or calling him a bust. I absolutely still think he has the upside to be a very good major league pitcher. I just think the odds of that happening are lower now than I did two years ago. I think everything you said here is accurate. I absolutely would have *hoped* for more. But that's my issue with his draft position and how a lot of us view him: because he was 7th overall, there is only a very small range of (excellent) performance that would leave people satisfied with his performance. Basically, I think anything less than "future perennial all-star" is going to be disappointing to a lot of people. Look at Matusz, Gausman, Bundy: one's a middling reliever, one a 3/4 starter with upside, and one is post-TJ with a questionable future. Appel, Gray, Shipley, Hoffman (also post-TJ), Nola (pitching well in AA...but two years older than Ball...)...contrast with Cole, Bauer, Bradley. Or look at Tyler Skaggs...realistically, most 7th overall picks aren't going to be stars. There isn't a guarantee of getting a Frank Thomas. So, while your point is well-taken, when I step away from my unrealistic ideas of what a 7th overall pic means, I'm actually relatively pleased with Ball. He's young for his level, is showing significant improvements in secondaries and FB command, and looks to be on track to be in the majors possibly before his 23rd birthday, and at a level per year, before his 24th at least. That's pretty solid, **especially** if he continues to improve at the rate he has been. Compare this year to the start of last year...and imagine what a similar degree of development means for next year. Am I disappointed, relative to what I'd hoped? Yes. Is that disappontment irrational? Yes.
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Post by rafael on Jun 10, 2015 21:09:30 GMT -5
What I don't like about the Ball pick is that he had basically no floor, was very raw and a huge project. If the Red Sox pick a guy with that description in the end of the first round when we have multiple draft picks then fine, it is a good bet. But at #7 overall, they should pick someone with at least some floor and also with some upside. At the time, I wasn't into following minor league players, and I didn't know anything about the Draft, so I do not criticize the pick because player X was available and X was clearly better, but because of the huge gamble the Red Sox took with him, with a pick that they should draft someone relatively 'safe'. Ball clearly has huge upside, perhaps upside that only Kopech and Espinoza have in our system and I really think that he will be valuable at some point for our major league team, but I'm disappointed with his development so far and even more with the selection.
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Trey Ball
Jun 11, 2015 8:19:35 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Jun 11, 2015 8:19:35 GMT -5
What I don't like about the Ball pick is that he had basically no floor, was very raw and a huge project. If the Red Sox pick a guy with that description in the end of the first round when we have multiple draft picks then fine, it is a good bet. But at #7 overall, they should pick someone with at least some floor and also with some upside. At the time, I wasn't into following minor league players, and I didn't know anything about the Draft, so I do not criticize the pick because player X was available and X was clearly better, but because of the huge gamble the Red Sox took with him, with a pick that they should draft someone relatively 'safe'. Ball clearly has huge upside, perhaps upside that only Kopech and Espinoza have in our system and I really think that he will be valuable at some point for our major league team, but I'm disappointed with his development so far and even more with the selection. High floor/high upside= 1/1, 1/2, maybe 1/3. At 1/7, they sacrificed floor for upside. Austin Meadows, who they were also linked to, didn't have a particularly high floor either. I imagine they thought (hoped) Ball would be sitting 92-95 instead of 89-92, which is still a (diminishing) possibility. The average career WAR for the seventh overall pick is right around 10. I'm not sure what the median is, but I imagine it's somewhere in that territory. Trot Nixon was "disappointing" to many fans because he was so highly touted in HS. But, he had a nice solid career. Top-5 all-time in career WAR (around 20) for seventh picks. So, a **high-end** (90th percentile) performer. Ball's floor is that he was considered a second-rounder as a CFer. Floors on all HS players are low, because teams trade experience and polish for youth and upside. If Ball meets his reasonable projection as a number 4 starter (and I'm going on record as saying I think he'll be better than that), he probably finishes his career right around 10-15 WAR. Would that be disappointing? Sure, but being disappointed in a better-than-50th percentile outcome is being greedy. And IMO, it's ridiculously early to be making judgements on the virtues of a *healthy* 7th overall pick out of HS. He's in High A at age 20...young for the level, by about a year and a half (for a player who was, and still is, considered "raw"). His ERA is just under 4, but he's been much better the past 5 starts than his first 6. He's started this year much better than he did last year. HE'S NOT EVEN 21 YET. It's crazy to me...give the guy until he's 23, at least, before making judgements on the wisdom of that pick.
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