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Trey Ball
Jun 17, 2015 9:32:14 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by joshv02 on Jun 17, 2015 9:32:14 GMT -5
Hate to say it but a little research shows that Ball has little to no chance of becoming even a serviceable big league arm... 137 hs pitchers were drafted in the 1st round (including sandwich picks) in the 13 drafts from 1999-2011: and 22 (or just 16%) had/have a career war above 5.0. I think the most interesting fact that only 22 of the high school pitchers drafted in the first round had career WAR above 5.0. That's really unbelievable and suggests how much of a crap shoot that drafting is outside of he very top picks.
Just on velocity and athleticism alone I would think (barring injury) that Bell is going to get to the big leagues in some way shape or form. Obviously, we are hoping for much more than Brian Matsuz's career but there are always teams looking for hard-throwing LH pitchers.
Right. And this is the point. The prior is always: every minor league pitcher has a slim chance of making an impact in the majors, even first round picks. Therefore, of course Bell has a slim chance of making the majors: he is on the minors, ipso facto. So studies showing us that but not adjusting for the known prior are just not that informative, imho. Also studies with an average or mean war projection by pick are ok but still lack much information. First only done of them blend the pick curve: there is nothing magical about a number seven vs six vs eight pick, therefore we should do a blended curve especially since our n is so small. But even with that correction, the variability is so great that really even adjusting and with the prior of failure expectation, what can we really say that is new about any one in particular? That the odds are stacked? Ok, but we already should have known that. Draft studies are great for showing large patterns but relatively weak for showing individual players. It is the exception to failure were are looking for, and if the studies just tell us to expect failure we didn't answer the question we are looking to answer.
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wbcd
Rookie
Posts: 33
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Post by wbcd on Jun 17, 2015 15:14:14 GMT -5
-And making matters worse is that he is two weeks away from his 21st birthday and yet has gained no velocity on his fb as the bp report from may had him 88-91 and max of 92 in two starts, that may even be a decrease in velo since his draft as most predaft scouting reports had 90-92 and max of 93. All the present day reports keep mentioning that velo will come and that its key to his progression, however i am beginning to wonder if it will ever materialize due to the fact that he appears to have put on little to no weight since joining the club, still 185-190 as he was on draft night. Two errors to correct, at least according to this recent article - www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/05/28/red-sox-have-long-term-vision-for-trey-ball/iK8mcsJqIvgmurPDEih8jL/story.html (1) He has gained weight, going from 167 pounds at signing to roughly 200 in May 2015. (2) He still throws 90-92 and touches 94 (I've seen other websites say 95) and his coach says that he doesn't know how good his fastball is. (BTW, this MiLB article - www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150609&content_id=129640336&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb - calls his fastball "low to mid-90s".) And a couple of more facts about his velocity, at 6'6", his fastball will probably play faster than the radar gun notes; LH pitchers don't throw as hard as RH pitchers do (I noted this above); and there are something like 10 LH starters that average 92 mph or over on their fastballs. Of all the things to worry about Ball, velocity isn't one of them. Plus, he's clearly been working on his command - particularly pitching to both sides of the plate - so if he sacrifices some stats for command at this stage, I am more than happy.
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Trey Ball
Jun 22, 2015 14:22:26 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by brnichols19873 on Jun 22, 2015 14:22:26 GMT -5
You're correct that I missed the time limitation you'd created. I disagree that it's of any significance. If anything, I think you're limiting your sample beyond meaning. Look at the pitchers per year who even fit your criteria of 5.0 career bWAR: 2011: 1 2010: 0 2009: 1 2008: 1 2007: 3 2006: 1 2005: 0 2004: 3 2003: 2 2002: 4 2001: 2 2000: 2 1999: 2 So what you're basically doing is looking at the top 2 or so HS pitchers to come from the first round from each draft in the older half of your sample and the top HS pitcher taken in the first round of the more recent half. Nobody here is going to argue that Trey Ball is Jose Fernandez or Clayton Kershaw, trust me. Also, minor league ERA is not a statistic I'd use. I think you'd be better off looking at rate stats. Given how low MLB ERA correlates year-to-year, I'd bet that minor league ERA has even less correlation. I'm sorry, but in my opinion, you're creating arbitrary parameters without meaning. We'll just have to agree to disagree. As Brian said, it's interesting anecdotally that Ball will need to be an outlier in this sense, but I think there would be a lot more meaning to this if you removed the "first round" criteria. HS pitchers are known to be a volatile commodity and for that reason there don't tend to be many drafted that high. Also consider that under the old draft rules you had things like signability guys who fell out of the first round even though talent suggested they go there, who were then popped later in the draft for an overslot bonus. By the way, player weights typically aren't updated every year. They usually just weigh them when they're drafted and use that publicly (I'm sure they have updated internal numbers they don't bother sharing) until they reach the majors. Again, I will reiterate that I limited the subset of players to ALL first rounder pitchers drafted out of high school since 1999 with bwar 5+, regardless of pedigree or draft range within the first round so to asert that I am "(only) looking at the top 2 or so HS pitchers," is just plain false and to expound on this point note that 13 of the 22 (60%) pitchers in the sample were not among the first two high school pitchers selected in their respective drafts: Jose Fernandez 3rd Shelby Miller 7th Rick Porcello 8th Phil Hughes 4th Gio Gonzalez 7th Chad Billingsly 3rd Zach Grienke 4th Scott Kazmir 5th Cole Hamels 6th Matt Cain 7th Sean Burnett 6th Adam Wainwright 8th Brett Myers 4th (And again realize i dont think he needs to be kershaw here or some phenom to be "successful' which is why i put the career bwar at a very low figure of 5, this equates to two - three below to average seasons for a major league pitcher. I will admit that ceiling for successful hs drafted pitchers is quite high as they tend to either excel or fail, little in between...) -And I also took the time to expand my sample to include all hs pitchers with bwar 5+ drafted in the first five rounds (gdoc: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XMGWBH_TBH0C-1W0DPIjX3fZqAdNVRs-00He8NyBlYY/htmlview?pli=1)Of the additional 17 pitchers added to the sample, 15 had a k/9 rate above 9.0 and the two that did not had a whip below 1.1. **Thus, for the entire sample (high school pitchers selected in the 1st-5th rounds from 1999-2012 who went on to acheive a career bwar above five) we have 39 total prospects, with 32 (83%) posting a k/9 of 9+ (in A or high A) and 37 of the 39 (95%) posting either a k/9 above 9 or a whip below 1.10. I will readily admit that the sample size is not enormous but you must realize their is a very finite number of even remotely "successful" hs drafted pitchers so this is what we are left to study. However, i dont understand how you or anyobe could completly write off these findings as the coorelation of A level dominance(measured by k/9 +9.0 or whip -1.10) to major league success is extremly high. To this end, for you to claim that Ball would not be a statistical outlier with his A/A+ numbers if he were to acheive bwar +5 is just not true....and that is the overarching point of this small study, to show that right off the bat when drafted Balls chances were slim but without dominance in A ball they are now miniscule based off the career trajectories of high school pitchers drafted over the past decade. This factual reality, leads to frustration for readers such as myself when I read writeup after writeup about how Ball is within an acceptable range of development and that early struggles are "common" among hs pitching prospects because the evidence is profound and clear that this is not the case... ***Another caveat to this study, is to remember that while it may point to Ball's lack of future success, another young pitching prospect in Michael Kopech is sitting pretty as he sports a 10.1 k/9 in A...
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Post by okin15 on Jun 22, 2015 14:45:49 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but in my opinion, you're creating arbitrary parameters without meaning. We'll just have to agree to disagree. As Brian said, it's interesting anecdotally that Ball will need to be an outlier in this sense, but I think there would be a lot more meaning to this if you removed the "first round" criteria. HS pitchers are known to be a volatile commodity and for that reason there don't tend to be many drafted that high. Also consider that under the old draft rules you had things like signability guys who fell out of the first round even though talent suggested they go there, who were then popped later in the draft for an overslot bonus. Again, I will reiterate that I limited the subset of players to ALL first rounder pitchers drafted out of high school since 1999 with bwar 5+, regardless of pedigree or draft range within the first round so to asert that I am "(only) looking at the top 2 or so HS pitchers," is just plain false and to expound on this point note that 13 of the 22 (60%) pitchers in the sample were not among the first two high school pitchers selected in their respective drafts: -And I also took the time to expand my sample to include all hs pitchers with bwar 5+ drafted in the first five rounds (gdoc: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XMGWBH_TBH0C-1W0DPIjX3fZqAdNVRs-00He8NyBlYY/htmlview?pli=1)Of the additional 17 pitchers added to the sample, 15 had a k/9 rate above 9.0 and the two that did not had a whip below 1.1. **Thus, for the entire sample (high school pitchers selected in the 1st-5th rounds from 1999-2012 who went on to acheive a career bwar above five) we have 39 total prospects, with 32 (83%) posting a k/9 of 9+ (in A or high A) and 37 of the 39 (95%) posting either a k/9 above 9 or a whip below 1.10. I will readily admit that the sample size is not enormous but you must realize their is a very finite number of even remotely "successful" hs drafted pitchers so this is what we are left to study. However, i dont understand how you or anyobe could completly write off these findings as the coorelation of A level dominance(measured by k/9 +9.0 or whip -1.10) to major league success is extremly high. To this end, for you to claim that Ball would not be a statistical outlier with his A/A+ numbers if he were to acheive bwar +5 is just not true....and that is the overarching point of this small study, to show that right off the bat when drafted Balls chances were slim but without dominance in A ball they are now miniscule based off the career trajectories of high school pitchers drafted over the past decade. This factual reality, leads to frustration for readers such as myself when I read writeup after writeup about how Ball is within an acceptable range of development and that early struggles are "common" among hs pitching prospects because the evidence is profound and clear that this is not the case... nichols, while your study is intriguing, I think Chris is right about the signability guys who could have gone much later. Your study misses a big subset of high ceiling HS pitching candidates. That said, I do think it's instructive that few or none have recovered from this poor initial go-round in full-season ball. That also said, I think we have to wait for the conclusion of the season before we judge Ball's results.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 22, 2015 14:57:32 GMT -5
Even if you prove that every player drafted 7 never makes the majors after putting up the kinds of numbers that Ball put up in Low A, it doesn't mean that he won't be a Hall of Fame pitcher.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 22, 2015 15:15:47 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 22, 2015 15:19:45 GMT -5
Won't quote the post since it's big, but appreciate the effort you put into this bnichols, even if I may not agree with the significance of the results. I look forward to looking at what you've got there later on.
To clarify one point: By "top" 2, I meant "best" not "drafted soonest." My point is that you were basically holding him to the standard of being either the best or second best pitcher in the first round of his draft. That said, looking at the 2013 first round, there were only 5 HS pitchers taken who signed anyway: Kohl Stewart, Ball, Hunter Harvey, Rob Kaminsky, and Ian Clarkin, plus Matt Krook if you expand into the compensation picks.
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Post by jmei on Jun 22, 2015 15:52:44 GMT -5
Has Ball always thrown so over-the-top? I remember him having more of a three-quarters delivery. It's kind of jarring to see his arm angle in the above link, which is about as overhand a delivery as I can remember seeing. That kind of delivery generally adds velocity but at the cost of horizontal movement, deception, difficulty repeating mechanics, and increased injury risk.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 22, 2015 16:03:56 GMT -5
Has Ball always thrown so over-the-top? I remember him having more of a three-quarters delivery. It's kind of jarring to see his arm angle in the above link, which is about as overhand a delivery as I can remember seeing. That kind of delivery generally adds velocity but at the cost of horizontal movement, deception, difficulty repeating mechanics, and increased injury risk. But this was also written regarding the movement on his fastball:
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 22, 2015 16:07:36 GMT -5
Even if you prove that every player drafted 7 never makes the majors after putting up the kinds of numbers that Ball put up in Low A, it doesn't mean that he won't be a Hall of Fame pitcher. I think you could say that about any statistic. Even though there's proof sun has been in the sky every day for thousands of years, and it projects to remain there for however many years, you can't prove it will be there tomorrow. Regardless, there isn't much more you can say about Ball at this point that hasn't already been said 100 times here. He hasn't pitch up to our (unmanageable) expectations for a #7 pick, but he is showing progress and some upside. He is still very young, and when we picked him we knew he was very raw and would take time to develop. I'm optimistic despite being slightly disappointed. But I also won't pretend like at the time I didn't want the highest ceiling player picked while dismissing any downside, like a majority of others here. (I had Shipley as next best, for no justifiable reason)
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 22, 2015 16:12:28 GMT -5
Even if you prove that every player drafted 7 never makes the majors after putting up the kinds of numbers that Ball put up in Low A, it doesn't mean that he won't be a Hall of Fame pitcher. I think you could say that about any statistic. Even though there's proof sun has been in the sky every day for thousands of years, and it projects to remain there for however many years, you can't prove it will be there tomorrow. Regardless, there isn't much more you can say about Ball at this point that hasn't already been said 100 times here. He hasn't pitch up to our (unmanageable) expectations for a #7 pick, but he is showing progress and some upside. He is still very young, and when we picked him we knew he was very raw and would take time to develop. I'm optimistic despite being slightly disappointed. But I also won't pretend like at the time I didn't want the highest ceiling player picked while dismissing any downside, like a majority of others here. (I had Shipley as next best, for no justifiable reason) I agree with you. I just don't love studies that are looking for a specific answer before it has even begun. They tend to be biased, even without realizing it. The answer being sought here is that Ball is already a bust, which is why I made the obvious comment you replied to. I also agree with you about Ball's results so far. I also won't be mad if he never pitches in the majors. Can't hit on everyone.
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Trey Ball
Jun 22, 2015 16:12:32 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by brnichols19873 on Jun 22, 2015 16:12:32 GMT -5
As a 2005 high school 7th round pick Neise was not part of my studied subset which i cut off at the 5th round but it appears he would be yet another example of the A level dominance coorelating to mlb success as he had a 9.6 k/9 in A/A+ in 2006 and holds a career bwar of 5.6 www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=niese-001jon
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 22, 2015 16:16:35 GMT -5
As a 2005 high school 7th round pick Neise was not part of my studied subset which i cut off at the 5th round but it appears he would be yet another example of the A level dominance coorelating to mlb success as he had a 9.6 k/9 in A/A+ in 2006 and holds a career bwar of 5.6 www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=niese-001jonI really don't see why you cut it off at all or even differentiate between high school and college pitchers. All college pitchers were once in high school. It really doesn't matter where or when anyone was drafted if you can compare the results of all pitchers at the same age in low A or at any other level.
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Post by brnichols19873 on Jun 23, 2015 16:56:28 GMT -5
In order to satisfy the various claims that I am too limiting with previous samples, I removed the "arbitrary parameter" of round drafted all together and included ALL pitchers drafted and signed out of high school that went onto a career WAR of +5 regardless of draft position and (even to my own surprise) the results of those hs pitchers drafted in later rounds essentially mirrored that of those drafted in earlier ones; in total 13 hs pitchers drafted after the 5th round from 1999 - 2012 went onto bwar above 5 with 93% (12 of 13) having a k/9 of 9+ or a whip of 1.1 or below in either low or high A ball (the majority, 10, had the k/9 9+ while just 2 had the whip -1.1) With these additional data points, the entire sample size of hs pitchers drafted since 1999 with bwar +5 is 52 and of that subset a staggering 94.2% (49 of 52) had a k/9 above 9 or a whip of 1.1 or below (again the majority, 82%, had the k's while a smaller number 14% had the whip) and just 5.7% (3 of the 52) had neither... The results can be seen in greater detail/clarity in the following google doc which is open to be viwed by anyone and in addition, I pasted the data table following the link in case anyone has an issue with accessing the doc... docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XMGWBH_TBH0C-1W0DPIjX3fZqAdNVRs-00He8NyBlYY/edit#gid=0Round Drafted Player Career War A/A+ K/9 or WHIP 1 Zack Greinke 45.1 whip 0.713 A+ 2003 1 Cole Hamels 44.4 13.1 k/9 A/A+ 2003 1 Clayton Kershaw 42.6 12.4 k/9 A 2007 1 Adam Wainwright 36.4 10.1 k/9 A 2001 1 Josh Beckett 35.9 13.8 k/9 A+ 2001 1 Matt Cain 32.7 10.95 k/9 A+ 2003 1 John Danks 21.2 9.6 k/9 A/A+ 2004 1 Scott Kazmir 20.8 11.9 A/A+ 2003 1 Madison Bumgarner 18.8 10.4 A 2008 1 Chad Billingsley 16.9 10.6 A/A+ 2004 1 Gio Gonzalez 16.4 11.2 A/A+ 2005 1 Gavin Floyd 15.5 whip 1.1 A 2002 1 Brett Myers 14.4 7.2 k/9 A 2001 1 Phil Hughes 11.1 10.08 A/A+ 2005 1 Rick Porcello 10.7 5.18 k/9 A+2008 1 Shelby Miller 8.9 12.1 A 2010 1 Jose Fernandez 7.8 10.6 A/A+ 2012 1 Homer Bailey 7.2 10.86 A 2005 1 Jarrod Parker 6.1 9.9 2009 A+ 1 Sean Burnett 6 whip 0.971 A 2006 1 Gerrit Cole 5.6 9.3 A+ 2012 1 Jeremy Bonderman 5.2 9.8 A+ 2002 2 Jon Lester 32.3 9.7 A+ 2004 2 Yovani Gallardo 20.4 11.9 A+ 2006 2 Trevor Cahill 8.7 10.0 A 2007 2 Jonathan Broxton 8.7 10.1 A+ 2004 2 Chris Tillman 8 9.2 A/A+ 2007 2 Brett Anderson 7.6 9.4 A 2007 2 Travis Wood 7.4 10.5 A+ 2007 3 Matt Harrison 9.1 whip 1.083 A 2005 3 Wade Davis 6.1 10.2 A 2006 4 Josh Johnson 23.8 9.1 A+ 2007 4 Ricky Nolasco 10.9 9.1 A 2002 4 Alex Cobb 9.3 whip 1.060 A 2008 4 Jeremy Hellickson 6.9 11.1 A 2006 5 Jim Johnson 9.1 9.5 A+ 2005 5 Bobby Jenks 8.5 9.0 A 2001 5 Chris Archer 7.7 9.8 A 2001 5 Jake McGee 5.1 11.5 A 2006 6 Lance Lynn 9 9.8 A-/A 2008 6 Eric O'Flaherty 5.8 9.2 A/A+ 2006 7 Jon Neise 7.5 9.6 A/A+ 2006 7 Matt Capps 6.6 5.0 k/9 A/A+ 2003 7 Kyle Kendrick 6.1 10.6 A 2006 8 Dontrel Willis 20.3 whip 0.882 A/A+ 2002 8 Dellin Betances 5.6 10.5 A 2008 9 Tyler Clippard 11.1 10.6 A/A+ 2005 11 Mat Latos 13.3 11.7 A 2007 16 James Shields 18.4 whip 1.064 A/A+ 2001 20 Zach Duke 10.2 9.8 A+ 2004 30 Hector Santiago 7.1 11.6 A 2008 38 Jarred Cosart 5.5 9.7 A 2010
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 23, 2015 17:05:20 GMT -5
I still don't understand why high school pitchers are any different than any other pitchers. If you draft a high school pitcher in the 35th round and sign him to overslot, how is he any different than a college pitcher signed in the 4th round? He can easily be the same pitcher who went to college.
Maybe we should do a study of 6'6" LH pitchers who are from the north.
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Post by brnichols19873 on Jun 23, 2015 17:11:31 GMT -5
I still don't understand why high school pitchers are any different than any other pitchers. If you draft a high school pitcher in the 35th round and sign him to overslot, how is he any different than a college pitcher signed in the 4th round? He can easily be the same pitcher who went to college. Maybe we should do a study of 6'6" LH pitchers who are from the north. because the hs pitcher is 18 and the college pitcher is 21/22 and thus the amount of projection it takes to effectively evaluate each is very very different, both statistically (since the hs pitcher has less track record against top competition and less tape in general) and physically (their is a world of difference between a mature 21/22 year old body then one that is 17 or 18...thats about as nicely as I can put it, these are not some arbitrary parameters as all teams and scouting departments break down and separate college v high school especially with pitchers...
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 23, 2015 17:15:48 GMT -5
I still don't understand why high school pitchers are any different than any other pitchers. If you draft a high school pitcher in the 35th round and sign him to overslot, how is he any different than a college pitcher signed in the 4th round? He can easily be the same pitcher who went to college. Maybe we should do a study of 6'6" LH pitchers who are from the north. because the hs pitcher is 18 and the college pitcher is 21/22 and thus the amount of projection it takes to effectively evaluate each is very very different, both statistically (since the hs pitcher has less track record against top competition and less tape in general) and physically (their is a world of difference between a mature 21/22 year old body then one that is 17 or 18...thats about as nicely as I can put it, these are not some arbitrary parameters as all teams and scouting departments break down and separate college v high school especially with pitchers... That's great, but someday, he'll be 21/22 and then you can compare him to college pitchers. If Trey Ball didn't sign and went to college, he'd still be the same pitcher but you are implying that he wouldn't be. It's pretty likely that he'd have the exact same career regardless of his choice on going to college or not.
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Post by jmei on Jun 23, 2015 19:06:14 GMT -5
because the hs pitcher is 18 and the college pitcher is 21/22 and thus the amount of projection it takes to effectively evaluate each is very very different, both statistically (since the hs pitcher has less track record against top competition and less tape in general) and physically (their is a world of difference between a mature 21/22 year old body then one that is 17 or 18...thats about as nicely as I can put it, these are not some arbitrary parameters as all teams and scouting departments break down and separate college v high school especially with pitchers... That's great, but someday, he'll be 21/22 and then you can compare him to college pitchers. If Trey Ball didn't sign and went to college, he'd still be the same pitcher but you are implying that he wouldn't be. It's pretty likely that he'd have the exact same career regardless of his choice on going to college or not. Right, but he's not 21/22 yet (although he will be in a week) and so we don't have his age 21/22 production to compare to anything. We can only work with the data that has been accumulated to date. The above study is certainly not definitive, but he's expanded it twice to meet your objections, and now you're literally asking for the impossible. Does the above mean that Ball cannot become a productive major league pitcher? Definitely not. But it does suggest that "projectability" only counts for so much, and that generally, productive major league pitchers were also productive to some degree in the low minors.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 23, 2015 19:53:00 GMT -5
If Trey Ball didn't sign and went to college, he'd still be the same pitcher but you are implying that he wouldn't be. It's pretty likely that he'd have the exact same career regardless of his choice on going to college or not.Out of context - this seems pretty ridiculous. In context - it seems slightly less ridiculous, but I still disagree. The ~3 years in college for a player significantly affects them. Whether it be heavy workloads based on over ambitious coaches or from the confidence gained from playing against more similar peers. A 22 year old who just came out of college and a 22 year old who has been a professional for the previous 4 years are on significantly different tracks - no matter what field they are in. The idea that many have that age is the only factor in evaluating prospects that many have is completely mind-boggling to me. If there are any articles indicating college has no affect on the progression of a baseball player's career then I'd love to read them.
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Post by soxfan4life on Jun 23, 2015 20:31:05 GMT -5
Personally I am glad they didn't go out and get some high school pitcher this time.Unless the player is a real stud of a player.i would rather the Sox draft a college player as opposed to high school
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Trey Ball
Jun 28, 2015 8:58:32 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by thebogeyman on Jun 28, 2015 8:58:32 GMT -5
Does anyone have any statistics on what percentage or runs scored in baseball are off of home runs? It seems like a huge percentage of the runs Ball has given up have been off of home runs (I would guess over 1/3). I can't imagine that is normal. If not, what does that tell us? If he kept a couple more balls in the park, he could be having a great season. Is there any historical stats to show that pitchers who give up a lot of home runs at the lower levels can drastically improve?
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Post by brnichols19873 on Jun 29, 2015 16:15:19 GMT -5
Does anyone have any statistics on what percentage or runs scored in baseball are off of home runs? It seems like a huge percentage of the runs Ball has given up have been off of home runs (I would guess over 1/3). I can't imagine that is normal. If not, what does that tell us? If he kept a couple more balls in the park, he could be having a great season. Is there any historical stats to show that pitchers who give up a lot of home runs at the lower levels can drastically improve? Earlier this year a writer on Hardballtimes.com posted a set of articles on which statistics he found were significant for minor league pitchers and hitters (here's the link: www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-forecasting-major-league-pitching-with-minor-league-stats/) here are his findings which include that below AAA and AA hr% is not very significant... "The table below summarizes which stats proved significant at each minor league level. This analysis includes minor league data going back to 1991, the earliest year for which Baseball-Reference has batters-faced totals for pitchers. R+ refers to the advanced rookie leagues–the Appalachian and Pioneer Leagues — while R- includes the Arizona and Gulf Coast Leagues. The following factors wound up being significant for pitchers at one or more minor league level: Age, the percentage of a pitcher’s games that were starts, strikeout rate, walk rate, home run rate, and handedness. Additionally, the square of a pitcher’s strikeout rate (K%^2) was significant at the Triple-A level with a negative coefficient." Significant Statistics By Levellevel | Age | GS% | K% | BB% | HR% | Handedness | K^2 | AAA | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | AA | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No
| A+ | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | A- | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | R+ | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No | R- | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | No |
"Just as we saw with hitters, a pitcher’s walk rate is not at all predictive for appearances in the lowest levels of the minor leagues. However, once a pitcher reaches full-season ball, a one percent change in walk rate immediately becomes almost as useful as a one percent change in strikeout rate in forecasting future performance. This differs from what I found for hitters, whose walk rates mean very little below Double-A, and don’t become as useful as strikeout rate until the Triple-A level. Home run rate is another metric that’s pretty much meaningless in the lower levels of the minors. Although it starts to add some predictive value as early as A-ball, its effect is relatively small for pitchers below Double- and Triple-A. Relative to strikeout percentage, a one percent increase in a pitcher’s home run rate matters about twice as much Triple-A as it would for a pitcher in Low-A and Short-Season-A."
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 29, 2015 18:16:25 GMT -5
Does anyone have any statistics on what percentage or runs scored in baseball are off of home runs? It seems like a huge percentage of the runs Ball has given up have been off of home runs (I would guess over 1/3). I can't imagine that is normal. If not, what does that tell us? If he kept a couple more balls in the park, he could be having a great season. Is there any historical stats to show that pitchers who give up a lot of home runs at the lower levels can drastically improve? Earlier this year a writer on Hardballtimes.com posted a set of articles on which statistics he found were significant for minor league pitchers and hitters (here's the link: www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-forecasting-major-league-pitching-with-minor-league-stats/) here are his findings which include that below AAA and AA hr% is not very significant... "The table below summarizes which stats proved significant at each minor league level. This analysis includes minor league data going back to 1991, the earliest year for which Baseball-Reference has batters-faced totals for pitchers. R+ refers to the advanced rookie leagues–the Appalachian and Pioneer Leagues — while R- includes the Arizona and Gulf Coast Leagues. The following factors wound up being significant for pitchers at one or more minor league level: Age, the percentage of a pitcher’s games that were starts, strikeout rate, walk rate, home run rate, and handedness. Additionally, the square of a pitcher’s strikeout rate (K%^2) was significant at the Triple-A level with a negative coefficient." Significant Statistics By Levellevel | Age | GS% | K% | BB% | HR% | Handedness | K^2 | AAA | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | AA | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No
| A+ | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | A- | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | R+ | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No | R- | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | No |
"Just as we saw with hitters, a pitcher’s walk rate is not at all predictive for appearances in the lowest levels of the minor leagues. However, once a pitcher reaches full-season ball, a one percent change in walk rate immediately becomes almost as useful as a one percent change in strikeout rate in forecasting future performance. This differs from what I found for hitters, whose walk rates mean very little below Double-A, and don’t become as useful as strikeout rate until the Triple-A level. Home run rate is another metric that’s pretty much meaningless in the lower levels of the minors. Although it starts to add some predictive value as early as A-ball, its effect is relatively small for pitchers below Double- and Triple-A. Relative to strikeout percentage, a one percent increase in a pitcher’s home run rate matters about twice as much Triple-A as it would for a pitcher in Low-A and Short-Season-A."Wow....very interesting how these metrics are considered at each level. Thanks brnichols19873
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Post by jmei on Jun 29, 2015 18:25:51 GMT -5
Trey Ball's 1.08 HR/9 is not really unusual, especially since he's been mostly a fly ball pitcher both this year and across his career.
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Post by brnichols19873 on Jul 2, 2015 15:05:38 GMT -5
Earlier this year a writer on Hardballtimes.com posted a set of articles on which statistics he found were significant for minor league pitchers and hitters (here's the link: www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-forecasting-major-league-pitching-with-minor-league-stats/) here are his findings which include that below AAA and AA hr% is not very significant... "The table below summarizes which stats proved significant at each minor league level. This analysis includes minor league data going back to 1991, the earliest year for which Baseball-Reference has batters-faced totals for pitchers. R+ refers to the advanced rookie leagues–the Appalachian and Pioneer Leagues — while R- includes the Arizona and Gulf Coast Leagues. The following factors wound up being significant for pitchers at one or more minor league level: Age, the percentage of a pitcher’s games that were starts, strikeout rate, walk rate, home run rate, and handedness. Additionally, the square of a pitcher’s strikeout rate (K%^2) was significant at the Triple-A level with a negative coefficient." Significant Statistics By Levellevel | Age | GS% | K% | BB% | HR% | Handedness | K^2 | AAA | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | AA | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No
| A+ | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | A- | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | R+ | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No | R- | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | No |
"Just as we saw with hitters, a pitcher’s walk rate is not at all predictive for appearances in the lowest levels of the minor leagues. However, once a pitcher reaches full-season ball, a one percent change in walk rate immediately becomes almost as useful as a one percent change in strikeout rate in forecasting future performance. This differs from what I found for hitters, whose walk rates mean very little below Double-A, and don’t become as useful as strikeout rate until the Triple-A level. Home run rate is another metric that’s pretty much meaningless in the lower levels of the minors. Although it starts to add some predictive value as early as A-ball, its effect is relatively small for pitchers below Double- and Triple-A. Relative to strikeout percentage, a one percent increase in a pitcher’s home run rate matters about twice as much Triple-A as it would for a pitcher in Low-A and Short-Season-A."Wow....very interesting how these metrics are considered at each level. Thanks brnichols19873 Glad you enjoyed the info! Just wanted to update the link I provided to the hardball times article I referenced as it looks like it didnt work... www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-forecasting-major-league-pitching-with-minor-league-stats/Also wanted to include a chart that shows, based on his minor league stats coming into this season, the author projects that Henry Owens will have the 8th highest WAR (6.2) of any minor league pitcher through his age 28 season... TOP KATOH PROJECTIONS Name Age Org ’14 Level MLB > 4 > 6 > 8 > 10 > 12 > 16 WAR Thru Age 28 Julio Urias 17 LAD A+ 91% 49% 49% 49% 45% 45% 43% 12.2 Noah Syndergaard 21 NYM AAA 99% 69% 63% 61% 50% 50% 23% 11.5 Luis Severino 20 NYY A/A+/AA 79% 39% 36% 30% 24% 22% 18% 7.2 Jose Berrios 20 MIN A+/AA/AAA 84% 35% 33% 31% 24% 23% 16% 7.0 Tyler Glasnow 20 PIT A+ 85% 32% 29% 28% 22% 20% 19% 6.9 Taijuan Walker 21 SEA A+/AA/AAA 94% 42% 36% 36% 18% 13% 12% 6.7 Clayton Blackburn 21 SF R-/AA 90% 44% 38% 27% 21% 13% 12% 6.5 Henry Owens 21 BOS AA/AAA 93% 39% 33% 24% 17% 14% 11% 6.2
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