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Trey Ball
Jul 2, 2015 21:33:39 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by larrycook on Jul 2, 2015 21:33:39 GMT -5
because the hs pitcher is 18 and the college pitcher is 21/22 and thus the amount of projection it takes to effectively evaluate each is very very different, both statistically (since the hs pitcher has less track record against top competition and less tape in general) and physically (their is a world of difference between a mature 21/22 year old body then one that is 17 or 18...thats about as nicely as I can put it, these are not some arbitrary parameters as all teams and scouting departments break down and separate college v high school especially with pitchers... That's great, but someday, he'll be 21/22 and then you can compare him to college pitchers. If Trey Ball didn't sign and went to college, he'd still be the same pitcher but you are implying that he wouldn't be. It's pretty likely that he'd have the exact same career regardless of his choice on going to college or not. Looking at ball this year vs early last year is like looking at two different pitchers entirely. The delivery is so much more refined and smooth, the ball appears to comes out of his hand with more spin. There is no way if he goes to college he could get the coaching needed to transform himself to this degree this quick. Last June I thought well maybe he can become an outfielder, this year I think he has a chance to be a back end starter if he keeps progressing and developing.
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wbcd
Rookie
Posts: 33
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Post by wbcd on Jul 2, 2015 22:25:47 GMT -5
Also wanted to include a chart that shows, based on his minor league stats coming into this season, the author projects that Henry Owens will have the 8th highest WAR (6.2) of any minor league pitcher through his age 28 season... That's an interesting comparison.
Owens rocketed through the minors based on one pitch that lower level hitters couldn't deal with but it remains to be seen whether his other pitches are good enough to play in the Show. So of course he projects well statistically even though he may not from a scouting POV.
OTOH, Bell has been diligent (or so we have been told) in developing multiple pitches and working on his command so his stats are not as good but he may be "projectable" still.
It will be interesting who accumulates more WAR.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 30, 2015 11:15:31 GMT -5
So I hadn't thought about Trey Ball in about two months, so I went and looked up his stats. Turns out he's actually running *worse* strikeout, walk, and home run rates than he was last year. That's almost impressively bad. He has the worst FIP of anyone in the Carolina league with at least 60 IP (and he has 102). He's been even worse over the past month (12.4 K%, 11.5 BB%). Who knows, maybe he'll figure something out in 4 years and turn into a useable major league pitcher, but the way he's been going, it doesn't look like he'll end up there.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 14, 2015 21:24:29 GMT -5
Can we pump the brakes a bit on an advanced college hitter putting up great numbers in the NYPL? Mainly this thread started because a lot of us thought he should get a promotion for the remainder of the season to at least expose him to more advanced pitching. The stats started showing up as proof that he's ready for it. I worry that people are going to be putting him in the HOF already when he's basically putting up the numbers he should be considering his pedigree and level. If we're going to get all bent out of shape about how slow Trey Ball is progressing so far, the we sure as hell should be encouraged by how well Benintendi is adjusting to pro ball and wooden bats so far. Nobody's putting him in the HOF, but there is reason to feel good about the pick so far. I am probably in the minority but I am going to throw it out there. I am encouraged by the development I have seen in ball this year. Do not get me wrong, he still has a long way to go, but I think he developed nicely this year. The fastball once the command improves has the chance to be above average. The secondary pitches have improved to where I am feeling really good about his entire arsenal. He has to improve command which will cut down on the walks and the taters. And command is key for him going forward. His arm looks tired at this point in the season, so probably not the best time to post this, but I think he is getting there at his own pace. At some point next year he will be in Portland and if the command has improved, he is primed to put up some nice numbers.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 15, 2015 8:55:55 GMT -5
I'm not encouraged by Ball this year at all. He's declined in Ks, BBs, and HR. I'd have him repeat Salem next year.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 15, 2015 13:17:25 GMT -5
I'm not encouraged by Ball this year at all. He's declined in Ks, BBs, and HR. I'd have him repeat Salem next year. I'm often curious what, if any, sports people played and if it has an affect on their opinion of things like this. Sometimes you have to take a step back to go forward. When you've been doing things a certain way for a long time and make changes, there's period where you step backwards and you have to trust that the change you're making is for the better. I'm not worried yet.
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nomar
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Trey Ball
Aug 15, 2015 13:53:39 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by nomar on Aug 15, 2015 13:53:39 GMT -5
I'm not encouraged by Ball this year at all. He's declined in Ks, BBs, and HR. I'd have him repeat Salem next year. I'm often curios what, if any, sports people played and if it has an affect on their opinion of things like this. Sometimes you have to take a step back to go forward. When you've been doing things a certain way for a long time and make changes, there's period where you step backwards and you have to trust that the change you're making is for the better. I'm not worried yet. I see his potential, but he hasn't had a single dominant stretch of games, not even two consecutive I don't think. If you want him to be a mid rotation starter, I would be a bit worried.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 16, 2015 0:12:01 GMT -5
OK... I started by moving the Trey Ball stuff into the Trey Ball thread. That seemed to make a lot of sense. I'm not done.
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Trey Ball
Aug 16, 2015 10:44:33 GMT -5
via mobile
jdb likes this
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Aug 16, 2015 10:44:33 GMT -5
Wouldn't mind seeing Ball moved to page 2. I'm ready to just drop all expectations and accept any contributions as gravy.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 16, 2015 10:49:36 GMT -5
He doesn't make for an exciting relief prospect either. So yeah it's hard to be excited about him
Missing out on Frazier sucked.
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Post by curiousle on Aug 16, 2015 11:15:47 GMT -5
Well we took Williams Jerez out of the field and put him back on the mound and if we can keep him, he might be a good lefty out of the bullpen....back to outfield for Trey Ball.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 16, 2015 11:29:07 GMT -5
I don't think there is any doubt that Ball's career has been a disappointment so far, but we can't forget about the thing that made him a top 10 pick in the first place: his physical projection. He is the type of prospect that COULD go from zero to 60 very quickly. Ideally, you don't want him stuck putting at about 20 MPH for two years, but that doesn't mean he can't get up to speed eventually. Most prospects gain speed gradually. Some get up to speed quickly, only to crash. And others are like grandma, going about 20 MPH on the ramp while merging onto the highway. Lets hope, like grandma, he eventually gets up to speed.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 16, 2015 11:38:48 GMT -5
Who should they have picked instead of Ball? Who was available that they could have had instead who would have been better?
Meadows? Dozier?
Maybe Shipley.
I wonder what people on this board would have thought on draft night if they had taken one of these others or perhaps someone else. I am not sure there was an obvious other choice given where they picked and who was available.
Of course, I am as disappointed as everyone else at how he is turning out.
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Trey Ball
Aug 16, 2015 12:43:48 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by stevedillard on Aug 16, 2015 12:43:48 GMT -5
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 16, 2015 13:39:55 GMT -5
I'm not encouraged by Ball this year at all. He's declined in Ks, BBs, and HR. I'd have him repeat Salem next year. I'm often curious what, if any, sports people played and if it has an affect on their opinion of things like this. Sometimes you have to take a step back to go forward. When you've been doing things a certain way for a long time and make changes, there's period where you step backwards and you have to trust that the change you're making is for the better. I'm not worried yet. The problem isn't that he's taken a step back, it's that he's stepping back from a place that wasn't good to begin with. Also, what "change" are you talking about? Do you have some inside info that us non-sports players aren't privy to? And even if that's the case, that "period" has been an entire season in length. Ball's too young to give up on but I can't imagine how anyone could have expectations at this point.
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Trey Ball
Aug 16, 2015 14:40:20 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by bigpupp on Aug 16, 2015 14:40:20 GMT -5
Who should they have picked instead of Ball? Who was available that they could have had instead who would have been better? Meadows? Dozier? Maybe Shipley. I wonder what people on this board would have thought on draft night if they had taken one of these others or perhaps someone else. I am not sure there was an obvious other choice given where they picked and who was available. Of course, I am as disappointed as everyone else at how he is turning out. I'm not sure we've gone a dozen consecutive posts without Meadows' name being brought up when talking about Ball. He was the obvious pick, he will probably turn out to be the better player, and at least for me, it's getting really old talking about him every time Ball's name gets brought up.
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Post by mredsox89 on Aug 16, 2015 14:54:19 GMT -5
I'd have preferred Meadows then, would prefer him now, but I still don't mind the "risk" on Ball. Especially in hindsight given that the Sox then ended up with another top 10 in Benintendi and will likely get another one this year
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 16, 2015 15:06:38 GMT -5
Who should they have picked instead of Ball? Who was available that they could have had instead who would have been better? Meadows? Dozier? Maybe Shipley. I wonder what people on this board would have thought on draft night if they had taken one of these others or perhaps someone else. I am not sure there was an obvious other choice given where they picked and who was available. Of course, I am as disappointed as everyone else at how he is turning out. I went through the players picked after Ball in the first round of the 2013 draft. I also read Jim Callis' analysis of the picks. There were many players who were better choices than Ball, at least choices that offered lower risk. Ball was a high-risk pick, supposedly high reward, also. Even Callis liked the pick but in retrospect I think he was greatly overrated on limited data. Here is a list of the players drafted after him who have had better records in the minors. Several already have made it to the majors, all pitchers, I think. There also are some hitters who definitely look like major league "impact" players. I also show if they currently are listed in a 2015 top 100 prospect list. Ball is not. There are draftees listed in pre-season top 100 prospect lists that I have not listed either because their 2015 record is poor, or I don't think the Sox would have drafted them for various reasons. 9-Austin Meadows, Pirates BA-41, MLB-46 11-Dominic Smith, Mets 12-D.J. Peterson, Seattle BA-85 MLB-50 BP-62 16-J.P. Crawford, Phillies BA-14 MLB-21 BP-36 17-Tim Anderson, White Sox, BA-92, MLB-76 BP-39 19-Marco Gonzales, Cardinals BA-50, BP-52 22-Hunter Harvey, Orioles BA-68 MLB-41 BP-20 23-ChiChi Gonzales, Rangers BA-87 MLB-97 BP-29 24-Billy McKinney, Braves BA-83 BP-81 25-Christian Arroyo, Giants 28-Rob Kaminsky, Cardinals 32-Aaron Judge, Yankees BA-53, MLB-68 BP-49 33-Ian Clarkin, Yankees 34-Seth Manaea, Royals BA-81 MLB-56 BP-85 36-Aaron Blair, Diamondbacks BA-40 MLB-81 BP-43 38-Michael Lorenzen, Reds, BP-63 39-Corey Knebel, Tigers
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Post by okin15 on Aug 17, 2015 10:12:00 GMT -5
The only other defensible pick was probably Meadows, who they should have taken. But we also might note how there are very few good pitchers in our system, and lots of position players.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 17, 2015 10:38:47 GMT -5
There are five pitchers on that list who already have made the majors: Marco and ChiChi Gonzales, Rob Kaminsky, Michael Lorenzen and Corey Knebel.
Given the obvious Sox need for pitching, it would have made more sense to draft a pitcher with more advanced development, with a record of achievement at a higher level.
The more I think about it, the less sense this pick made.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 17, 2015 10:50:25 GMT -5
There are five pitchers on that list who already have made the majors: Marco and ChiChi Gonzales, Rob Kaminsky, Michael Lorenzen and Corey Knebel. Given the obvious Sox need for pitching, it would have made more sense to draft a pitcher with more advanced development, with a record of achievement at a higher level. The more I think about it, the less sense this pick made. You could go through every draft and make better picks using hindsight. It's pointless though. They were trying to go for upside and Ball had the most at that point in time. There was the physical projection, the fact that he wasn't a full time pitcher, the fact that he didn't play nearly as much as everyone else because he was up north. Because it didn't work out so far doesn't mean it was a bad pick at that time. It was right around where all the experts expected him to get drafted.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 17, 2015 11:10:58 GMT -5
There are five pitchers on that list who already have made the majors: Marco and ChiChi Gonzales, Rob Kaminsky, Michael Lorenzen and Corey Knebel. Given the obvious Sox need for pitching, it would have made more sense to draft a pitcher with more advanced development, with a record of achievement at a higher level. The more I think about it, the less sense this pick made. You could go through every draft and make better picks using hindsight. It's pointless though. They were trying to go for upside and Ball had the most at that point in time. There was the physical projection, the fact that he wasn't a full time pitcher, the fact that he didn't play nearly as much as everyone else because he was up north. Because it didn't work out so far doesn't mean it was a bad pick at that time. It was right around where all the experts expected him to get drafted. I have a collection of quite a few years of Baseball Prospectus and the BA Prospect Handbooks and just for amusement I occasionally look through the ratings of prospects. The "experts" are wrong a good deal of the time. Humans just are not all that predictable, or projectable, particularly when they are very young. It truly is part of the fun of all of this, trying to guess who will succeed. And I use the word guess because there is a lot of subjectivity in the rating of prospects and very young players. Consequently, common sense and experience have to be applied as well. There were many good players in that draft but not a huge number of truly exceptional ones. The guess was that Ball might be one of those exceptional ones, but it was based on very limited data, as both you and I pointed out. That increased the odds that the experts were going to be wrong, and they have been. Given that the Sox seldom had so high a pick, did it make sense to take a very high risk? We can disagree about that but there truly is no right answer to that question. And it doesn't really matter now. It is just fun to speculate. Sox management was much smarter this year and they defied some of the experts because a number missed Benintendi and others did not quite accept that he was as good as his record indicated, Keith Law in particular - and he now seems to be realizing that he might have been wrong. BTW, this discussion reminded me of a stock broker I once had who said that darts could be thrown at the stock lists in the Wall Street Journal and the stocks hit would be as good as the ones recommended by the experts. Later the WSJ ran a contest for a number of years and while the experts came out somewhat ahead, it was embarrassingly close. www.investorhome.com/darts.htm
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 17, 2015 11:16:18 GMT -5
The only other defensible pick was probably Meadows, who they should have taken. But we also might note how there are very few good pitchers in our system, and lots of position players. I had Shipley as the guy I wanted after Fraizer and Stewart, but Smith, Peterson, McGuire, and Crawford all had some top 10 helium and would have been justifiable picks, even if they weren't rumored as matches. Remember when Gonzalez was rumored as being a possibility at #7? IIRC, some members were threatening bodily harm if they took him at #7, or maybe that was just me. There are five pitchers on that list who already have made the majors: Marco replacement level pitcher for 34 innings in 2014, followed by 5.5 ERA in AAA in 2015 and supporting FIP data. 50 grade overall from Kileyand ChiChi Gonzales Replacement level pitching this year, striking out less per 9 than he is walking. Average-ish minor league stats, but still a solid prospect from the scouting side. Best of this bunch, Rob Kaminsky Don't see this guy in the majors, unless I'm looking up the wrong one Michael Lorenzen 5.46 ERA in 90 MLb innings supported by FIP data. Solid in AA last year, but nothing that would suggest other than his 50 gradeand Corey Knebel Reliever. Given the obvious Sox need for pitching, it would have made more sense to draft a pitcher with more advanced development, with a record of achievement at a higher level. The more I think about it, the less sense this pick made. Added some context in the blue. While the Ball pick is not looking good, these guys were not obvious answers. Off subject from Ball... The 2013 draft clearly looks weak at the top with Ball's performance, and Denny's off field issues, but I think we did good after round ten with Asuaje, Dubon, and Longhi. All ~ top 20 in the system while only spending 350K over slot.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 17, 2015 11:26:35 GMT -5
I really liked Hunter Harvey and believe he will be a really solid starter in the future, if he stays healthy finally.
With that said, Trey Ball still could be a good pitcher but it may take a lot longer than we would hope for a number 7 overall pick. He HAS, for him, made solid strides this season. The only time I saw him he was REAL raw, but you could see the athletic ability immediately. I'm sure you all remember those YouTube videos of him dunking. The kid can move and handle his body well. He is 6 foot 6 inches!! He is left handed and is not a slug. Add to his never committing to totally being a pitcher and you've got a piece of clay to dream on. He is learning EVERYTHING. He is not like a young kid coming out of California like Kolby Allard who has been groomed since he was a 5 years old to be a pitcher.
In Indiana they don't dream of being a major league pitcher folks. No they dream about playing basketball for the Hoosiers. I like that this kid has played other sports. He has a fresh arm and he has a lot of bullets still in his gun left. He is a project.....but he is a "project" with tons of potential. Really to be honest, Trey can't be considered a bust for 2 more years.
He WILL add some good weight over the next couple of years. He WILL improve his muscle memory over that time span. He PROBABLY will add another pitch in this time frame, and I bet he repeats his release point better and improves his command. Watching Jon Lester in Greenville years ago, I didn't see a mid 90's fastball or superior command. AND one last thing, all of these kids in August are getting real tired after 5 months of playing or practicing daily. I can't imagine all those months of long bus trips.
In 2 years, you can tell me I'm full of it, but give this kid a "pass". He is learning on the fly. I bet he just learned that rosin existed 3 years ago.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Aug 17, 2015 11:33:02 GMT -5
The Sox rolled the dice on Ball and so far have lost.
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