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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by benjaminbuttons on Jun 1, 2015 15:50:16 GMT -5
The Sox are lucky to only be 7 games under right now. -48 run differential, with the most unearned runs scored in baseball. I'm most worried about ownership panicking at the deadline due to all the failed years surrounding the WS. I don't want any part of a rental "ace" because I don't think it's enough to win it all and I'm afraid just making it to the dance in this pitiful division will be good enough for them.
I'm fine with going after pitching at the deadline that helps us in 2016 and beyond, but giving up top prospects for a guy you still have to pay 20+ AAV like Hamels makes ZERO sense. Pony up for a pitcher this off season and abandon the philosophy that you won't pay 30+ yr old pitchers.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 1, 2015 16:03:53 GMT -5
The Sox are lucky to only be 7 games under right now. -48 run differential, with the most unearned runs scored in baseball. I'm most worried about ownership panicking at the deadline due to all the failed years surrounding the WS. I don't want any part of a rental "ace" because I don't think it's enough to win it all and I'm afraid just making it to the dance in this pitiful division will be good enough for them. I'm fine with going after pitching at the deadline that helps us in 2016 and beyond, but giving up top prospects for a guy you still have to pay 20+ AAV like Hamels makes ZERO sense. Pony up for a pitcher this off season and abandon the philosophy that you won't pay 30+ yr old pitchers. I don't know. The Hamels contract seems to be like the ones the current regime favors. It would be a shorter term contract and, by the end of this offseason's market pricing, should be prohibitively less than the market value for a pitcher of his caliber. If you believe that the Phillies are willing to kick in some of the salary, then by my rudely incomprehensive computations, he would actually cost less overall and annual in AAV than Rick Porcello He's a really good pitcher. He will get more expsensive as the summer drags on and other teams show interest. I think it is a slippery slope basing post-season expectations on regular season play. Last years world series combatants should, at a minimum, give that stream of consciousness pause.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2015 16:04:21 GMT -5
So do you want to double down on expensive players on the wrong side of 30?
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Post by jmei on Jun 1, 2015 16:09:42 GMT -5
Pony up for a pitcher this off season and abandon the philosophy that you won't pay 30+ yr old pitchers. It would be extremely disappointing to me if our front office and ownership group was this reactionary and unable to stand by the strengths of its convictions.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 1, 2015 16:23:07 GMT -5
I agree with this entirely. From a big picture point of view, there's not much to do until the trade deadline, at which point they buy if they're in it and sell if they're not. I dont get why you have to wait until the deadline to improve your ballclub and also be compromising big picture point of view. Acknowledging that each decision should be on the merits and that overreactions to poor starts are to heavily weighed, there simply is no reason for the FO to not improve the club today. This appears to be a weak division and any given time is the time to pounce. If we were competing in a stronger division I would agree, but it appears as though we aren't, which is different than many previous. That condition alone should give a reason to alter normal business management. You have to be in it...to win it, in the most literal sense of the phrase available.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 16:24:10 GMT -5
So do you want to double down on expensive players on the wrong side of 30? Just the opposite, actually. But, I can definitely see management panicking and doing something dumb like trading Rodriguez.
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danr
Veteran
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Post by danr on Jun 1, 2015 16:28:35 GMT -5
If the Sox now were a .500 team and the key position players were performing near their norms, it then would make sense to trade for Hamels, assuming the deal was not outrageous. Hamels is the kind of pitcher the Sox would need in the post season. But, the odds are getting pretty good that the Sox won't be in the post season. So a different approach should be employed.
Before making any significant moves, the Sox should be trying out more of the players at Pawtucket. I like the idea of having Hanley play some 1B and DHing, with Castillo moved to left, Betts to right and JBJ put in center. Johnson should be given a tryout like Rodriguez was. I think he will be pretty good. If that is the case, then the Sox have some chips to use in trading. They also could forego trading for a pitcher and instead try to get a good hitter, preferably a 1B. There aren't very many really good ones out there and the cost would be high. That might be a better long term move than trading for Hamels.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2015 16:33:11 GMT -5
A question for those who want to trade Napoli and move Hanley to first. Are you assuming Hanley is a better defensive first baseman than left fielder? What makes you assume that? It's really not that much further down the defensive spectrum from left field.
I feel like Mike Napoli is a much better option for this lineup than Peguero, Bradley, or whoever would replace him by taking Hanley's outfield spot, and the only way that such a move doesn't hurt the team is assuming that the combination of improved defense by Hanley at 1B over what he's doing in the OF, plus whatever they'd get in return, would be better than what they lose downgrading from Napoli to one of those other guys. I'm not sure what that is, admittedly, but the calculus isn't as easy as it seems. Remember this offseason when we were all like "yeah, just throw Hanley in left field, that'll be fine?" I think the same thing underlies the assumption that he'll be fine at first.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 16:34:44 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2015 16:35:00 GMT -5
I'm most worried about ownership panicking at the deadline due to all the failed years surrounding the WS. ?
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 1, 2015 16:36:59 GMT -5
What should be done? Realistically, what can be done? Ownership should demand that Farrell make the following position player moves immediately: 1. As soon as Victorino is healthy, bring him up and send Betts to Pawtucket. Victorino hustles, and his walk-up music is awesome. I'm not even sure Farrell knows who Betts is. I heard him call him Markus once. What an idiot. M-O-O-K-I-E! Betts obviously needs more time in the minors; his on-base percentage has fallen by more than 65 points this year. And this allows us to ... 2. Move Castillo to centerfield. He runs like a centerfielder, he hits like a centerfielder, so he must be a centerfielder. And he makes a lot of money and has a wicked nice car. 3. Trade Napoli for a couple of minor league relievers and a back-up second baseman. He's a free agent making a lot of money, underperforming on his walk year. We're not going to get much for him, plus we'll have to pick up most of the money. Gotta be done. Then, you can move Hanley to first base, mid-season. What? Hanley's never played on the right side of the diamond? Any idiot can learn first base! Wasn't Napoli a crappy catcher before he became a first baseman? If he can do it, so can Hanley. Position changes are sooooo easy! He should be a gold glover immediately. But, of course, only against right-handed pitching, because against lefties, Hanley would be the DH so we can ... 4. Platoon Ortiz. He's toast. (Mmmmmmmmmm, toast.) Have him face righties only. Nevermind that he's a slow starter, he's done, finito. The double benefit is that his option won't vest and he'll become a free agent next year. I'm sure Ortiz won't mind; that's why Ben hired Farrell to handle the players. Then we can ... 5. Bring up Allen Craig. He's crushing AAA, so he must be back. Yay! Stats are everything, right? He can play left field against right-handed pitching and first base against left-handed pitching. He was great in the World Series. And speaking of great players in the World Series, maybe we should ... 6. Platoon Panda. Holt can play third base against lefties. Better yet, since it was clearly a mistake to put Bogaerts back at shortstop, let's platoon Bogaerts between short and third, and Holt can play shortstop against lefties. Or better yet, let's bring up Marrero to backup shortstop. 7. DFA Carlos Peguero and bring up Bryce Brentz. Brentz crushes lefties normally, so he'll play left field against left-handed pitching. Free Brentz! Too bad, we'll have to let Nava go also. Maybe we can trade him for something nice. 8. Sign Brock Holt to a five-year extension. He's dreamy. 9. Swihart can stay until Hanigan is ready. Then, it's Hanigan's show. Hanigan's a local kid, played for Andover, so he stays. I like that Sandy Leon - nice arm and good K/BB. Remind Farrell to always look for players with good K/BB and don't forget to ... 10. Buy Farrell some dark, thick-rimmed glasses. They work for Joe Maddon - he's smart, right? He juggles lineups really well and does those super-sweet shifts. So, Farrell should wear the glasses, too. 11. Pedroia can stay. He's a true Red Sox. He's got a wicked big heart for a little guy. Finally, we should ... 12. Trade JBJ. We should be able to get Hamels for him, Owens and Cecchini, no problem, because the farm system is AWESOME! GO RED SOX! WOOOOOO! I'll be back later to detail the pitching moves.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 16:43:55 GMT -5
A question for those who want to trade Napoli and move Hanley to first. Are you assuming Hanley is a better defensive first baseman than left fielder? What makes you assume that? It's really not that much further down the defensive spectrum from left field. I feel like Mike Napoli is a much better option for this lineup than Peguero, Bradley, or whoever would replace him by taking Hanley's outfield spot, and the only way that such a move doesn't hurt the team is assuming that the combination of improved defense by Hanley at 1B over what he's doing in the OF, plus whatever they'd get in return, would be better than what they lose downgrading from Napoli to one of those other guys. I'm not sure what that is, admittedly, but the calculus isn't as easy as it seems. Remember this offseason when we were all like "yeah, just throw Hanley in left field, that'll be fine?" I think the same thing underlies the assumption that he'll be fine at first. What's this "we" business? This isn't Buckingham Palace or Kansas City. A good number of people here (as well as in the media) have been concerned for quite some time about the musical chairs game the Sox have been playing with positional players. We've got a shortstop who should probably be playing third base, a third baseman who's one offseason eating binge away from having to DH, a left fielder whom people pray can play a decent first base, a second baseman playing out of position in centerfield and our best true shortstop at AAA. We're looking at several dominos falling once the first is tipped.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 1, 2015 16:54:47 GMT -5
Lol. Lester will not be worth it
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Post by jmei on Jun 1, 2015 16:57:41 GMT -5
I agree with this entirely. From a big picture point of view, there's not much to do until the trade deadline, at which point they buy if they're in it and sell if they're not. I dont get why you have to wait until the deadline to improve your ballclub and also be compromising big picture point of view. Acknowledging that each decision should be on the merits and that overreactions to poor starts are to heavily weighed, there simply is no reason for the FO to not improve the club today. This appears to be a weak division and any given time is the time to pounce. If we were competing in a stronger division I would agree, but it appears as though we aren't, which is different than many previous. That condition alone should give a reason to alter normal business management. You have to be in it...to win it, in the most literal sense of the phrase available. It is very difficult to acquire significant talent this early in the season. Unless you blow them away with an offer that is obviously superior (e.g., Addison Russell), selling teams will generally wait until closer to the trade deadline to move significant talent, when the threat of a deadline motivates teams to cut the crap and make their last best offers. In addition, I am uncomfortable overpaying for present talent when we're talking about a team whose project playoff odds are in the 30% range (Fangraphs has 29.9% odds of making the playoffs period and 25.9% odds of reading the Divisional Series, while Baseball Prospectus is at 30% and 25.8%, respectively). If the Red Sox can push those odds to closer to 50/50 by mid-July, I'd be comfortable trading future wins for present wins, but if those odds drop any lower, that's not a worthwhile direction to pursue for me.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 1, 2015 17:02:33 GMT -5
Ownership should demand that Farrell make the following position player moves immediately: 1. As soon as Victorino is healthy, bring him up and send Betts to Pawtucket. Victorino hustles, and his walk-up music is awesome. I'm not even sure Farrell knows who Betts is. I heard him call him Markus once. What an idiot. M-O-O-K-I-E! Betts obviously needs more time in the minors; his on-base percentage has fallen by more than 65 points this year. And this allows us to ... 2. Move Castillo to centerfield. He runs like a centerfielder, he hits like a centerfielder, so he must be a centerfielder. And he makes a lot of money and has a wicked nice car. 3. Trade Napoli for a couple of minor league relievers and a back-up second baseman. He's a free agent making a lot of money, underperforming on his walk year. We're not going to get much for him, plus we'll have to pick up most of the money. Gotta be done. Then, you can move Hanley to first base, mid-season. What? Hanley's never played on the right side of the diamond? Any idiot can learn first base! Wasn't Napoli a crappy catcher before he became a first baseman? If he can do it, so can Hanley. Position changes are sooooo easy! He should be a gold glover immediately. But, of course, only against right-handed pitching, because against lefties, Hanley would be the DH so we can ... 4. Platoon Ortiz. He's toast. (Mmmmmmmmmm, toast.) Have him face righties only. Nevermind that he's a slow starter, he's done, finito. The double benefit is that his option won't vest and he'll become a free agent next year. I'm sure Ortiz won't mind; that's why Ben hired Farrell to handle the players. Then we can ... 5. Bring up Allen Craig. He's crushing AAA, so he must be back. Yay! Stats are everything, right? He can play left field against right-handed pitching and first base against left-handed pitching. He was great in the World Series. And speaking of great players in the World Series, maybe we should ... 6. Platoon Panda. Holt can play third base against lefties. Better yet, since it was clearly a mistake to put Bogaerts back at shortstop, let's platoon Bogaerts between short and third, and Holt can play shortstop against lefties. Or better yet, let's bring up Marrero to backup shortstop. 7. DFA Carlos Peguero and bring up Bryce Brentz. Brentz crushes lefties normally, so he'll play left field against left-handed pitching. Free Brentz! Too bad, we'll have to let Nava go also. Maybe we can trade him for something nice. 8. Sign Brock Holt to a five-year extension. He's dreamy. 9. Swihart can stay until Hanigan is ready. Then, it's Hanigan's show. Hanigan's a local kid, played for Andover, so he stays. I like that Sandy Leon - nice arm and good K/BB. Remind Farrell to always look for players with good K/BB and don't forget to ... 10. Buy Farrell some dark, thick-rimmed glasses. They work for Joe Maddon - he's smart, right? He juggles lineups really well and does those super-sweet shifts. So, Farrell should wear the glasses, too. 11. Pedroia can stay. He's a true Red Sox. He's got a wicked big heart for a little guy. Finally, we should ... 12. Trade JBJ. We should be able to get Hamels for him, Owens and Cecchini, no problem, because the farm system is AWESOME! GO RED SOX! WOOOOOO! I'll be back later to detail the pitching moves. Honestly, this is the funniest thing I've read in quite some time. Please hurry back wtih the pitching moves.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2015 17:07:30 GMT -5
A question for those who want to trade Napoli and move Hanley to first. Are you assuming Hanley is a better defensive first baseman than left fielder? What makes you assume that? It's really not that much further down the defensive spectrum from left field. I feel like Mike Napoli is a much better option for this lineup than Peguero, Bradley, or whoever would replace him by taking Hanley's outfield spot, and the only way that such a move doesn't hurt the team is assuming that the combination of improved defense by Hanley at 1B over what he's doing in the OF, plus whatever they'd get in return, would be better than what they lose downgrading from Napoli to one of those other guys. I'm not sure what that is, admittedly, but the calculus isn't as easy as it seems. Remember this offseason when we were all like "yeah, just throw Hanley in left field, that'll be fine?" I think the same thing underlies the assumption that he'll be fine at first. What's this "we" business? This isn't Buckingham Palace or Kansas City. A good number of people here (as well as in the media) have been concerned for quite some time about the musical chairs game the Sox have been playing with positional players. We've got a shortstop who should probably be playing third base, a third baseman who's one offseason eating binge away from having to DH, a left fielder whom people pray can play a decent first base, a second baseman playing out of position in centerfield and our best true shortstop at AAA. We're looking at several dominos falling once the first is tipped. OK, maybe overstating it. Would agree you're doing the same there too though, right?
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 1, 2015 17:07:42 GMT -5
What's your point? A Boston sportswriter busting on the Sox is a daily occurrence, even when they win the WS. And Tanguay is a moron. I hate to say that about a Maine guy, especially one from the Western Mountains where I grew up. But I wouldn't use Gary Tanguay's opinion as evidence of anything.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 1, 2015 17:09:03 GMT -5
Between Hanley, Pablo, Porcello, Castillo, Craig and Miley, the Sox have 84.5 million worth of bad guaranteed 2016 contracts. Barring a Nick Punto Trade Part Deux, it could take a while to extricate ourselves from the hole we've dug for ourselves. Those aren't all going to be bad contracts. It's possible none of them will be. Think it is safe to say Craig's is a bad contract. Other than that though I'm still reasonably happy with the rest of those deals. Nobody tied up into there upper years and the rest of those guys look OK. Its the going cost for FAs. None of these guys are over 100M$ deals. A serviceable veteran costs 15-20M$/season. Its the way it is.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 1, 2015 17:10:55 GMT -5
With all the bad baseball I needed a laugh. Well done by amfox.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 1, 2015 17:17:01 GMT -5
A question for those who want to trade Napoli and move Hanley to first. Are you assuming Hanley is a better defensive first baseman than left fielder? What makes you assume that? It's really not that much further down the defensive spectrum from left field. I feel like Mike Napoli is a much better option for this lineup than Peguero, Bradley, or whoever would replace him by taking Hanley's outfield spot, and the only way that such a move doesn't hurt the team is assuming that the combination of improved defense by Hanley at 1B over what he's doing in the OF, plus whatever they'd get in return, would be better than what they lose downgrading from Napoli to one of those other guys. I'm not sure what that is, admittedly, but the calculus isn't as easy as it seems. Remember this offseason when we were all like "yeah, just throw Hanley in left field, that'll be fine?" I think the same thing underlies the assumption that he'll be fine at first. I am not assuming that Hanley can play 1B well enough to hold the position. But I think it would be useful to try him there a few times and see how it goes. Obviously, he would have to do some work ahead of time. I wouldn't just put him there tomorrow. It seems likely the Sox are going to need a new 1B next year. Napoli is a terrific defender and I hope his recent surge continues. Then I would be happy to have him back next year. But that seems less likely now than it did before the season. Hanley, however, doesn't appear to very well suited to the outfield. Not only is he a terrible defender, he is fragile and runs into things. The obvious solution is for him to succeed Ortiz, but it isn't clear that position will be available. So, what is there to lose in giving him some reps at 1B? The other possibility is moving Panda to 1B and putting Hanley at third, but if Hanley can't handle first, he probably can't handle third even though he has played it.
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Post by benjaminbuttons on Jun 1, 2015 17:18:41 GMT -5
I'm most worried about ownership panicking at the deadline due to all the failed years surrounding the WS. ? Umm I don't want ownership panicking and overpaying for a rental, that won't put us over the top. But I could see them doing that due to the embarrassment of September 2011, 2012 and 2014. They know the fan base is getting tired of this BS, I'm just hoping they don't sacrifice the future for a piece when they are multiple pieces away.
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Post by benjaminbuttons on Jun 1, 2015 17:19:40 GMT -5
Pony up for a pitcher this off season and abandon the philosophy that you won't pay 30+ yr old pitchers. It would be extremely disappointing to me if our front office and ownership group was this reactionary and unable to stand by the strengths of its convictions. Right so we'll just go right into next season with a garbage rotation. Or maybe they can find another mediocre pitcher in their "prime years" like Rip Porcello to give stupid money too.
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Post by prangerx on Jun 1, 2015 17:23:04 GMT -5
The problem with just standing pat is that if we finish last again the whole organization is probably going to get cleaned out. At the very least Farrel and Cherington will probably be gone. But on the same token I am not sure if there is one major trade that will save us. There probably going to have to at least attempt to deal for Hamels. The problem is a good number of the guys the Phillies want are on our big league roster. The best move might be to focus on 2016. But the Red Sox are under a lot of pressure to not have yet another losing season. And by standing pat Cherington probably costs himself his job. I don't envy his position. But at the same time his staff has made some bad moves and has failed to develop enough of our minor league talent to contribute like they did during the Theo years. There is a major organization problem there that can't be ignored anymore. The last superstar prospect that successfully developed into a major league is Anthony Rizzo, and he was traded before he even made it to the big leagues. Either are overrated our prospects or they aren't being developed right.
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Post by benjaminbuttons on Jun 1, 2015 17:33:14 GMT -5
The Sox are lucky to only be 7 games under right now. -48 run differential, with the most unearned runs scored in baseball. I'm most worried about ownership panicking at the deadline due to all the failed years surrounding the WS. I don't want any part of a rental "ace" because I don't think it's enough to win it all and I'm afraid just making it to the dance in this pitiful division will be good enough for them. I'm fine with going after pitching at the deadline that helps us in 2016 and beyond, but giving up top prospects for a guy you still have to pay 20+ AAV like Hamels makes ZERO sense. Pony up for a pitcher this off season and abandon the philosophy that you won't pay 30+ yr old pitchers. I don't know. The Hamels contract seems to be like the ones the current regime favors. It would be a shorter term contract and, by the end of this offseason's market pricing, should be prohibitively less than the market value for a pitcher of his caliber. If you believe that the Phillies are willing to kick in some of the salary, then by my rudely incomprehensive computations, he would actually cost less overall and annual in AAV than Rick Porcello He's a really good pitcher. He will get more expsensive as the summer drags on and other teams show interest. I think it is a slippery slope basing post-season expectations on regular season play. Last years world series combatants should, at a minimum, give that stream of consciousness pause. My problem isn't with Hamels as I like him a lot, despite his shaky past against the AL East. My problem is what are you giving up for him on top of paying his salary. But also know if they are eating salary then they are asking for more. Also the Royals and Giants won nearly 90 games last year, not exactly regular season slouches.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 1, 2015 17:37:23 GMT -5
The problem with just standing pat is that if we finish last again the whole organization is probably going to get cleaned out. At the very least Farrel and Cherington will probably be gone. I think that's a good thing. Don't forget Rizzo didn't pan out in SD. The Gonzo trade was a good one. The Crawford contract and Beckett extension are what failed. That, and moving Youkilis back to 3b when he was breaking down. While we let Beltre out of town.
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