SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
|
Post by soxfan1615 on Jun 29, 2015 9:56:08 GMT -5
You make a Valid point BUT. Last place in 12, again in 14 and 15 looking like another last place finish is just not acceptable in Boston. And herein lies a big part of the problem with the Red Sox...How do we separate our obvious goal to win every year (that's why we follow year in and year out right?!), with the realistic view that it's an impossible goal to achieve every year considering the cyclical nature of winning, and factoring in the passionate fan base and need for NESN ratings (i.e. The Monster), the cost of chasing the ring every year that can dig a deeper hole than admitting some years (maybe several in a row) just need to be reloading/developmental years...I think Theo started a good process of focusing the fan base on the farm system through the media (another way of saying, "look what's just over the horizon") So, in 2015, the Sox have some young talent and some established talent, but the roster is a bit of a mess w/ too many OF, too many outs in the lineup (some of which was due to youth and some due to underachieving vets...), and too many inconsistent pitching performances. Every time they win a series the momentum ends the next series...We've learned that the AL East actually isn't all that bad comparatively, and the Sox are staring up at every team in the AL...While nothing is impossible, seems like this isn't going to be the year...the question is, isn't that ok after 3 WS in the past 10 years or so? I'd argue "yes", but still want to discuss the issues/problems i see as that's what i like to do...and i'm sure is why we're all here...but there's no such thing as "losing" not being acceptable in any giving market, it's an inevitability...sooner or later it has to happen albeit it is never a goal to achieve...maybe the more money you have, you can stave it off longer, but unless you have an unlimited budget, the cost of continuing to chase the ring will also catch up with you at some point and then ultimately push your time in between winning cycles off that much further... So need to prepare to sell anything good we have (which won't be here when we're ready to compete again for a WS) which can bring back future/young talent that will be around when we can realistically compete for a championship again (which isn't that far away with young talent we supposedly have)...but need to build like the cubs and hold off on the expensive FA signings until we ready to pull the trigger again on making a WS run... Its absolutely not impossible to win every year. Money has a much higher correlation to future success than draft position. The NBA is a cyclical league. The MLB, not so much. The rich teams should be good most of the time. We should be competitive every yeae
|
|
tedf
Rookie
Posts: 79
|
Post by tedf on Jun 29, 2015 10:10:29 GMT -5
Honestly, there isn't much to be done at this point. Focus on developing the young talent, fixing the flaws with the inconsistent pitchers, and wait 'til next year. They've locked in too many long contracts to be making any significant changes.
|
|
tedf
Rookie
Posts: 79
|
Post by tedf on Jun 29, 2015 10:14:51 GMT -5
I would like to see them try to figure some stuff out in the second half of the year. Give Shaw some at bats . Maybe Travis down the road . He has done a lot in a small time frame. Travis Shaw has a .735 OPS at Pawtucket, and took three tries to figure out AA. I don't have any great hopes for him. Sam Travis has potential, but is still a couple years away. Need to figure out 2016 first.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 29, 2015 10:29:49 GMT -5
I would like to see them try to figure some stuff out in the second half of the year. Give Shaw some at bats . Maybe Travis down the road . He has done a lot in a small time frame. Travis Shaw has a .735 OPS at Pawtucket, and took three tries to figure out AA. I don't have any great hopes for him. Sam Travis has potential, but is still a couple years away. Need to figure out 2016 first. Shaw is hitting something like .310/.390/.440 for Pawtucket since his first one-game MLB callup on 5/8 (tough to pull the exact stats with the couple of random MLB games in there). Before that, he was .189/.245/.311 with a sub-.200 BABIP. So his numbers are at least trending in the right direction. If he can play an average third base, he could be at least a useful bench bat, especially if they can get him passable in the outfield corners (although I'm not sure that'll happen).
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 29, 2015 10:32:23 GMT -5
Its absolutely not impossible to win every year. Money has a much higher correlation to future success than draft position. The NBA is a cyclical league. The MLB, not so much. The rich teams should be good most of the time. We should be competitive every yeae This has not been empirically true in recent years, due in part to increased revenue sharing (which has decreased the payroll gap between the richest and poorest teams), changes in aging curves which increasingly favor young talent, and new limits to spending on amateur talent in the CBA: www.providencejournal.com/article/20140825/SPORTS/308259994
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2015 10:44:06 GMT -5
Its absolutely not impossible to win every year. Money has a much higher correlation to future success than draft position. The NBA is a cyclical league. The MLB, not so much. The rich teams should be good most of the time. We should be competitive every yeae This has not been empirically true in recent years, due in part to increased revenue sharing (which has decreased the payroll gap between the richest and poorest teams), changes in aging curves which increasingly favor young talent, and new limits to spending on amateur talent in the CBA: www.providencejournal.com/article/20140825/SPORTS/308259994Add to that, just look at the standings right now. Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston are the division leaders, with Tampa and Minnesota fighting for a WC berth. Maybe the Red Sox should spend less money.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Jun 29, 2015 12:23:12 GMT -5
Its absolutely not impossible to win every year. Money has a much higher correlation to future success than draft position. The NBA is a cyclical league. The MLB, not so much. The rich teams should be good most of the time. We should be competitive every yeae This has not been empirically true in recent years, due in part to increased revenue sharing (which has decreased the payroll gap between the richest and poorest teams), changes in aging curves which increasingly favor young talent, and new limits to spending on amateur talent in the CBA: www.providencejournal.com/article/20140825/SPORTS/308259994There is one part of this article that doesn't entirely compute. PEDs may have contributed to better performance of older players but it was for just a limited number of years. I can't think of any reason why there should be an earlier decline in player performance today than they was historically. Players are bigger, stronger, better fed, better nourished, better conditioned and trained than ever before. Aging has slowed in general across the population because of better health and nutrition. However, despite this logic, player performance stats still show that most players still peak at around age 28 and are likely to show measurably declines after about age 32. And last I read, which was a couple of years ago, these stats have remained reasonably constant over a very long time. It isn't universal. There always are exceptions. I still find it astonishing that so many front-line pitchers had relatively long careers 50 years ago when they completed a high percentage of the games they won. No doubt the improvement in overall pitching since then is due to reducing the load on pitchers and focusing on improved performance, but, if anything, the current approach should lengthen careers.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jun 29, 2015 17:01:39 GMT -5
TORONTO -- Josh Donaldson is making $4.3 million for the Blue Jays this year while hitting .301 with 18 doubles, 18 homers 48 RBIs and a league-leading 58 runs scored. The Red Sox would’ve loved to have the ultra-talented third baseman on their team. The Herald has learned that the Red Sox inquired about Donaldson early in the offseason before they signed free agent Pablo Sandoval, but the Oakland A’s told them Donaldson wasn’t available. The Sox officially signed Sandoval on Nov. 25, offering him a five-year pact that guarantees the 28-year-old $95 million. www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2015/06/red_sox_had_interest_in_josh_donaldson_prior_to_signingMore at the link
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,438
|
Post by nomar on Jun 29, 2015 18:00:51 GMT -5
TORONTO -- Josh Donaldson is making $4.3 million for the Blue Jays this year while hitting .301 with 18 doubles, 18 homers 48 RBIs and a league-leading 58 runs scored. The Red Sox would’ve loved to have the ultra-talented third baseman on their team. The Herald has learned that the Red Sox inquired about Donaldson early in the offseason before they signed free agent Pablo Sandoval, but the Oakland A’s told them Donaldson wasn’t available. The Sox officially signed Sandoval on Nov. 25, offering him a five-year pact that guarantees the 28-year-old $95 million. www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2015/06/red_sox_had_interest_in_josh_donaldson_prior_to_signingMore at the link What's the point of that article? "Our toy is cool everyone wants it"
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 29, 2015 20:54:41 GMT -5
You're not as savvy as you think you are if you don't know the history of the Sox and Beane. He's not going to trade a real asset to the team. It just isn't going to happen. Anyone who thinks otherwise should take it to the trade proposal subforum. I never fooled myself about Donaldson. He wasn't coming to Boston.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,438
|
Post by nomar on Jun 29, 2015 20:59:57 GMT -5
You're not as savvy as you think you are if you don't know the history of the Sox and Beane. He's not going to trade a real asset to the team. It just isn't going to happen. Anyone who thinks otherwise should take it to the trade proposal subforum. I never fooled myself about Donaldson. He wasn't coming to Boston. Yeah, no chance.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Jul 4, 2015 3:21:46 GMT -5
Looks like the Giants need an outfielder with pagan gimping around.
Unfortunately I doubt we have anything that could help them. Even though they have a bullpen arm or two that I would really like.
Ps: betts, bogey and swihart remain on my untouchable list!
|
|
|
Post by chud on Jul 5, 2015 10:19:15 GMT -5
I'm an optimist in normal life, so could I make a case that the Sox make a run in the AL East being behind only 7 games...Sure I could...But, I'm also a planner in normal life and because of that I'd like to be realistic and say 7 games in the East, 3rd worst record in the AL, and 8th worst in MLB may be too far of a climb with too many teams in front of them to do any damage...So, for that reason I thought it might be a good time to put a thread out there to suggest what we'd all like to see the rest of the way, assuming playoffs are out...Here's my list:
1) Definitely keep on keeping on with the linear trajectory of the killer B's (Betts / Bogaerts)
2) Development of the Young Pitching/Pitchers...See if ERod can hold up in his first go around then cut him off if/when his innings get too high, and need to give B Johnson a taste prior to next year...Owens is not quite ready yet, but would like to see who the in-house successor to Koij will be (Light?, Kelly?) if there is one for 2017
3) Straightening out the OF alignment for 2016...Assuming Betts is locked into one of the 3 spots, and assuming Hanley is the long term DH, who will be the other 2...I'd like to see what we have in Bradley as he's too potentially valuable to give up on prior to absolutely knowing what he is and what he isn't...I'm hopeful they can clear some playing time for him w/ a Victorino trade at some point even if they have to eat salary as he's not a fit next year and won't be useful to this team in a non-playoff year...then, of course, you also need to find some time for Castillo...Either way, this log jam needs to be squared away showing a clear plan for the out years of 2016-2017...right now, this OF juggling has been the hardest thing for me to understand in terms of how the Sox have handled it with the long term planning outlook...I think they thought they could trade a few pieces like Vic and Adams to clear space at the start of the season or a bit into it, which they couldn't due to lack or productivity/injury, but now is time to force the issue somehow...
4) Development of the plan for the SP's going forward...Think it's clear that Miley, Porcello, and ERod are in 3 spots (i'm a guy who thinks Procello will figure this out as he's not this bad)...I think the Sox should see what a Buchholz trade could fetch, which should and would be a ton...the irony is that everyone wants him traded when he's pitching badly and then wants to hold him when he's pitching well...but the reality is, he could be a part of the future staff or could be a huge poker chip bringing in a bonanza at the deadline and think teams would be salavating over what might be the best overall SP available (to include current health) with 2 more years of control...if the Shark as a FA brought in Russell, imagine what Buch could bring in...Either way, if there's a team willing to pay equal value the Sox should listen, and if there's a team that's willing to overpay, the Sox should pull the trigger...Then there's Joe Kelly who's had plenty of MLB time to figure out what he is and what he isn't...His stuff is probably too good for AAA hitters to realize how big of a detriment his lack of control is...so the minors probably won't do much for his future development...Personally, I think he's the future closer, who's stuff will dominate over one inning, in situations where hitters might be more impatient as opposed to him as a SP where hitters know they have a whole game to wait him out...
5) Finally, the continued development of the farm...Personally, if some of the high level prospects continue to develop as they are, the Sox trade Buch for a huge haul, and the B's are still a year away from carrying the load, I'm ok w/ next year also being a developmental year...But I'd just like to see a plan that that is the case as opposed to the plan being one thing w/ the reality turning the plan on it's head
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jul 5, 2015 11:03:19 GMT -5
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Jul 5, 2015 17:51:03 GMT -5
That fangraphs spreadsheet is fascinating. So many teams clustered slightly above or below .500, especially in the AL. That being the case, I don't see how they can do projections with much confidence, considering that trades made this month could make the difference for any number of teams.
For example, the Sox now are hitting fairly well, in fact, among the best teams in the AL, and there still are holes in the lineup. The pitching still is problematical, both starting and relieving.
But if the Sox somehow came up with another good bat, a couple of good starters and a couple of good RPS, they could become a formidable second-half team. That doesn't necessarily mean the post-season because any of the teams ahead of them could improve equally, or more. And the cost in prospects to make these improvements would be significant.
If the Sox are at or above .500 come deadline time, there is going to be real pressure to make some major moves.
|
|
|
Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Jul 5, 2015 20:00:44 GMT -5
That fangraphs spreadsheet is fascinating. So many teams clustered slightly above or below .500, especially in the AL. That being the case, I don't see how they can do projections with much confidence, considering that trades made this month could make the difference for any number of teams. For example, the Sox now are hitting fairly well, in fact, among the best teams in the AL, and there still are holes in the lineup. The pitching still is problematical, both starting and relieving. But if the Sox somehow came up with another good bat, a couple of good starters and a couple of good RPS, they could become a formidable second-half team. That doesn't necessarily mean the post-season because any of the teams ahead of them could improve equally, or more. And the cost in prospects to make these improvements would be significant. If the Sox are at or above .500 come deadline time, there is going to be real pressure to make some major moves. Somehow come up with another good bat, a couple of good starters and a couple of good RPs? Is this the offseason or the trade deadline?
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jul 5, 2015 22:03:09 GMT -5
That fangraphs spreadsheet is fascinating. So many teams clustered slightly above or below .500, especially in the AL. That being the case, I don't see how they can do projections with much confidence, considering that trades made this month could make the difference for any number of teams. The projections don't account for any potential trades, but it's easy to overrate the potential impact of those.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Jul 5, 2015 22:52:16 GMT -5
I recall a trade during the 2004 season that had a very significant effect on the outcome of that season.
Every team in the AL East has weaknesses and the result is that no team has really broken out. If a team is willing to pay the prices, there will be good players to be had in the next few weeks. I'm not making an argument for it, just stating a fact.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 6, 2015 0:44:48 GMT -5
I recall a trade during the 2004 season that had a very significant effect on the outcome of that season. Every team in the AL East has weaknesses and the result is that no team has really broken out. If a team is willing to pay the prices, there will be good players to be had in the next few weeks. I'm not making an argument for it, just stating a fact. One of the most memorable in-season deals that had major impact that I can recall was the Fred McGriff to Atlanta deal. Always felt he was underrated and should get serious consideration for the HOF. He came over, played great, and the Braves caught fire and wiped out a deficit to a strong Giants team that won over 100 games. The Braves nipped them by 1 game and SF had to go home as it was 1993, the year before the Wild Card came into play (or was supposed to).
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jul 6, 2015 8:34:43 GMT -5
If this team wins its next two series they will be officially back in the playoff hunt. While many are pointing to the need for a starter, they also need relief help. They could've gotten Papelbon for loose change before the season started and used him as an 8th inning set-up guy/alternate closer when Koji is not available. Now, as the deadline approaches he and other relievers will require a premium. As much as I'd love some big, confidence affirming trade, I think if they are in the hunt and do make a move it will be a smaller deal rather than a splash, unless they are miraculously atop the AL East on July 31. Then all bets are off.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 6, 2015 8:48:24 GMT -5
The way this team is gelling now I'd say they need a quality reliever first and foremost. However assuming we were to make a playoff run we might need a starter as well. ERod is going to be worked this season and his innings could get really high at the end and if he isn't shut down he might even show signs of fatigue.
If we are playing baseball in October, ERod might be a big part of why we are there so if we are in it come July 30th I say make a run for one of these rentals.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2015 9:11:54 GMT -5
Masterson being moved back to the bullpen.
One hopes it's Brian Johnson time after the break.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jul 6, 2015 11:19:25 GMT -5
Masterson being moved back to the bullpen.One hopes it's Brian Johnson time after the break. I don't know how effective he can be there, but I guess it's worth a look-see over Ross, Breslow and the rest the of the Meh Heads.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 6, 2015 11:55:03 GMT -5
They need at least 2 good relief pitchers. I don't see how it's possible and don't really see any internal solutions, unless ERod has to move there for workload reasons.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Jul 6, 2015 12:14:19 GMT -5
They need at least 2 good relief pitchers. I don't see how it's possible and don't really see any internal solutions, unless ERod has to move there for workload reasons. The Sox are not wanting to do it (at least yet), but Kelly would be helpful and maybe above average in the pen. We all want a young powerful arm like his to be a starter, but it seems to be very hard for him to focus and be consistent for even 5 or 6 innings. For 1 or 2 innings he may be a real weapon. I gather this week will be another "hoop" for Kelly and Brian Johnson to jump through to see who comes out the other end and is our starter after the All Star break. For the entire staff at this moment, Johnson in the rotation and Kelly (and Masterson) in the bullpen makes the most sense probably for the remainder of 2015. Steven Wright should also be brought up and left alone. He could also alleviate some of our troubles in the pen, in long relief, and as a spot starter. Hopefully TODAY Brian Johnson is lights-out and the brass will have little or no qualms about bringing him up after the break.
|
|
|