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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by jmei on Jun 1, 2015 17:43:18 GMT -5
It would be extremely disappointing to me if our front office and ownership group was this reactionary and unable to stand by the strengths of its convictions. Right so we'll just go right into next season with a garbage rotation. Or maybe they can find another mediocre pitcher in their "prime years" like Rip Porcello to give stupid money too. The Red Sox rotation current ranks: 17th in league- and park-adjusted FIP 18th in league- and park-adjusted xFIP 17th in unadjusted SIERA Meanwhile, the Red Sox defense ranks 25th in UZR/150 and 21st in DRS. Oh yeah, and the offense ranks 23rd in league-and park-adjusted offense (wRC+). The pitching is roughly what we thought it was. The problem has been the position player side, both on the field and at the plate.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 1, 2015 18:07:10 GMT -5
My problem isn't with Hamels as I like him a lot, despite his shaky past against the AL East. My problem is what are you giving up for him on top of paying his salary. But also know if they are eating salary then they are asking for more. Also the Royals and Giants won nearly 90 games last year, not exactly regular season slouches. My larger point was that they both were in the 1 game wild card playoff and then went to the world series. My current thoughts...admittedly... are being skewed by a real desire to see meaningful baseball in September and hopefully October. I am willing to pay the premiums associated with that risk to both prospects and money. I'll leave it at that.
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Post by tonyc on Jun 1, 2015 18:13:03 GMT -5
Good points Jmei and all, I am quite patient and like you in it for the long haul- don't want to give up prospects. Have a bit of concern that a public outcry led by the foolish short term views of the Felgers and Shaugnessys can put pressure on the team to trade- less likely, or fire a good manager, more likely. Cherington probably is fairly secure- better be. Sox champs, I too was thinking about 1973 N.L. east- was frustrated with their pathetic records, while the sox had a 10 game winning streak late to still finish well behind Baltimore at .549
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Post by benjaminbuttons on Jun 1, 2015 18:30:26 GMT -5
Right so we'll just go right into next season with a garbage rotation. Or maybe they can find another mediocre pitcher in their "prime years" like Rip Porcello to give stupid money too. The Red Sox rotation current ranks: 17th in league- and park-adjusted FIP 18th in league- and park-adjusted xFIP 17th in unadjusted SIERA Meanwhile, the Red Sox defense ranks 25th in UZR/150 and 21st in DRS. Oh yeah, and the offense ranks 23rd in league-and park-adjusted offense (wRC+). The pitching is roughly what we thought it was. The problem has been the position player side, both on the field and at the plate. You can twist w/e stats you want to try to defend this staff. But Porcello/Miley/Masterson/Kelly as a whole have been awful, Miley certainly has been better lately though. Buchholz has been pretty good and Wright has been decent. "They are what we thought they were" isn't something you can defend ownership/Cherington with. T-ball players could have told you this rotation was gonna be *ss. But the suits that do this for a living couldn't figure that out?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 18:34:06 GMT -5
The problem with just standing pat is that if we finish last again the whole organization is probably going to get cleaned out. At the very least Farrel and Cherington will probably be gone. I think that's a good thing. Don't forget Rizzo didn't pan out in SD. The Gonzo trade was a good one. The Crawford contract and Beckett extension are what failed. That, and moving Youkilis back to 3b when he was breaking down. While we let Beltre out of town. Rizzo was given all of 128 ABs in San Diego before getting nudged aside after the Padres traded for Yonder Alonso. How is that "Rizzo not panning out?" That's more like "Josh Byrnes not panning out."
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Post by benjaminbuttons on Jun 1, 2015 18:40:01 GMT -5
My problem isn't with Hamels as I like him a lot, despite his shaky past against the AL East. My problem is what are you giving up for him on top of paying his salary. But also know if they are eating salary then they are asking for more. Also the Royals and Giants won nearly 90 games last year, not exactly regular season slouches. My larger point was that they both were in the 1 game wild card playoff and then went to the world series. My current thoughts...admittedly... are being skewed by a real desire to see meaningful baseball in September and hopefully October. I am willing to pay the premiums associated with that risk to both prospects and money. I'll leave it at that. I'm with you on the meaningful baseball thing. I also probably have that "overrate your own prospects" a lot of us have on here.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 1, 2015 18:44:47 GMT -5
At this point I would mostly just let it ride. There is too much that has gone wrong not to think some of it will start going right.
One thing I would do is start giving Hanley some reps at first in BP. Just to start getting a feel for how his skill set looks there, because I don't have a lot of confidence his defense will improve enough in LF. If he looks okay there, you can start to get him some looks in game situations later this month.
If he does well enough, I think it makes a lot of sense to move Napoli come the deadline. And that is whether the team is doing well or not.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 18:54:24 GMT -5
At this point I would mostly just let it ride. There is too much that has gone wrong not to think some of it will start going right. I like this. It's like the BABIP theory of karma.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 1, 2015 18:57:39 GMT -5
If he does well enough, I think it makes a lot of sense to move Napoli come the deadline. And that is whether the team is doing well or not. Moving Napoli just for the sake of being rid of him is not going to be good. The question is going to be, can you get more for him than you would by giving him a QO? If the answer is no, you might as well keep him around as a platoon player (Ramirez DH Napoli 1B vs. LHP, Ortiz DH Ramirez 1B vs. RHP). And that's assuming Ramirez actually turns out to be an average or better defender at 1B. I mean, averaging Steamer and ZiPS, Napoli projects to hit 119 wRC+ the rest of the way and Hanley projects to 125 wRC+. That's a pretty marginal difference.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 1, 2015 18:58:51 GMT -5
I think that's a good thing. Don't forget Rizzo didn't pan out in SD. The Gonzo trade was a good one. The Crawford contract and Beckett extension are what failed. That, and moving Youkilis back to 3b when he was breaking down. While we let Beltre out of town. Rizzo was given all of 128 ABs in San Diego before getting nudged aside after the Padres traded for Yonder Alonso. How is that "Rizzo not panning out?" That's more like "Josh Byrnes not panning out." I don't understand why Rizzo not panning out for the Padres has anything to do with anything here. He's maybe the best first baseman in the game right now; he would have panned out anywhere. Getting Gonzalez wasn't a bad trade, but it's had disastrous results.
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Post by down225 on Jun 1, 2015 19:25:27 GMT -5
If he does well enough, I think it makes a lot of sense to move Napoli come the deadline. And that is whether the team is doing well or not. Moving Napoli just for the sake of being rid of him is not going to be good. The question is going to be, can you get more for him than you would by giving him a QO? If the answer is no, you might as well keep him around as a platoon player (Ramirez DH Napoli 1B vs. LHP, Ortiz DH Ramirez 1B vs. RHP). And that's assuming Ramirez actually turns out to be an average or better defender at 1B. I mean, averaging Steamer and ZiPS, Napoli projects to hit 119 wRC+ the rest of the way and Hanley projects to 125 wRC+. That's a pretty marginal difference. And what if he accepts the QO?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 19:33:11 GMT -5
Rizzo was given all of 128 ABs in San Diego before getting nudged aside after the Padres traded for Yonder Alonso. How is that "Rizzo not panning out?" That's more like "Josh Byrnes not panning out." I don't understand why Rizzo not panning out for the Padres has anything to do with anything here. He's maybe the best first baseman in the game right now; he would have panned out anywhere. Getting Gonzalez wasn't a bad trade, but it's had disastrous results.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 1, 2015 19:56:11 GMT -5
It wasn't that long ago that the RS FO was talking passionately about the importance of avoiding locking into bad long-term contracts. Now, here we are trying to figure out whether it's best to make a trade so that the ghastly bad $22 million LF can move to 1B and be bad there. (HanRam has played three positions since 2009 and had one positive bRef dWAR season in that time.)
I'm open to trading Napoli and moving Hanley to 1B as a triage move because I think the situation in LF has gotten that bad. Just understand that Napoli isn't going to bring much back in a trade. He's still owed a significant amount of money for the balance of this season. The RS will end up paying some of that.
I'd put Mookie in LF, JBJ in CF (against RHP) and Rusney in RF.
They would then need a RH OF to sub in for JBJ. Brentz? Also, a RH utility guy to get Papi out of the lineup against LHP. I would think trading from the stash of B prospects who have no future with the organization (Coyle, Cecchini, Marerro, etc.) could bring a platoon guy back. Ideally, it would be someone who could play an average 1B, so that he could be a late-inning defensive replacement for HanRam in games where he's not DHing.
We're stuck with Panda and his declining game because nobody's taking that contract.
Give Johnson a shot in the rotation. For now, it should be: Porcello, Clay, EdRod, Johnson and Miley, with Wright as the 6th guy. Kelly goes to AAA or to the pen.
If it can be done, remove Masterson from the 40-man roster like Craig. DFA Nava.
I'm not claiming that this will make the RS much better but it's all I have. The team is bad, expensive and hard to fix.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jun 1, 2015 20:41:04 GMT -5
Rizzo was given all of 128 ABs in San Diego before getting nudged aside after the Padres traded for Yonder Alonso. How is that "Rizzo not panning out?" That's more like "Josh Byrnes not panning out." I don't understand why Rizzo not panning out for the Padres has anything to do with anything here. He's maybe the best first baseman in the game right now; he would have panned out anywhere. Getting Gonzalez wasn't a bad trade, but it's had disastrous results. I would have said it was the other way around. Six years of control of Anthony Rizzo was worth way more than the one year of control of Adrian Gonzalez. It was a bad trade. On the other hand it had great results: It allowed the Red Sox to get out of two very ugly contracts (Beckett, Crawford).
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Post by whoareyoukarimgarcia on Jun 1, 2015 20:44:43 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see how much leverage BC has at and before the trade deadline. We saw (in hindsight) that peter chiarelli was in a lame duck phase when the Bruins didn't allow him to make any moves that would impact the future of the club long term. I hate that BC will have any say in one of the few top 10 picks that we have had in the last couple of decades. That being said, what is the solution to replace him, if the brass goes in that direction. Andrew Friedman isn't an option and Theo isn't walking through that door in a gorilla suit, so what current gm or Asst. gm would be a good fit for this club. Dave Dombrowski would be someone I would target as gm/president. Are there any other candidates that would make an immediate impact this off season?
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 1, 2015 20:48:31 GMT -5
Are there any other candidates that would make an immediate impact this off season? I'm available.
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Post by whoareyoukarimgarcia on Jun 1, 2015 20:51:41 GMT -5
That's fantastic news! Maybe you can be co-gm with Dan Duquette.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 1, 2015 20:52:38 GMT -5
I think the mistake the Red Sox have made this year is thinking that their problems were short term fixable. They weren't. They aren't and they have to look in the mirror and admit that. 2013 was an amazing year, but they needed Lackey and Lester to step forward and for Victorino to have an unreal year.
The Sox need to start unloading their old expensive players even if it means eating salary. Hanley Ramirez is lazy injury prone and isn't a good enough hitter to make up for these failings. He's a bad apple who never should have been signed. Get rid of him...what ever it takes. Make that a start.
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Post by jmei on Jun 1, 2015 20:53:45 GMT -5
One thing I would do is start giving Hanley some reps at first in BP. Just to start getting a feel for how his skill set looks there, because I don't have a lot of confidence his defense will improve enough in LF. If he looks okay there, you can start to get him some looks in game situations later this month. If he does well enough, I think it makes a lot of sense to move Napoli come the deadline. And that is whether the team is doing well or not. I see very little point to starting the 1B transition midseason, at least unless they're totally throwing in the towel. Giving him reps at 1B mid-season (and taking away reps in LF) is almost certainly not enough to prepare him to play first base at a major league level. Say what you will about his LF defense, but there, he only gets, what, 5 or 6 plays a game? That's easily getting doubled at first base, plus stuff like holding runners on and the ability for guys to test his range by bunting in his direction. If his issue is that he's a slow learner, there's no way you start playing him at a position he's never played before after a couple dozen sessions of BP and expect that to go well. Plus, as mgoetze points out above and I have reiterated over and over again, Napoli is absolutely still one of their better hitters. We're talking about a dude with one of the top 50 batted ball velocities in the game (min. 50 ABs with data), right between Jose Abreu and Adam Jones. And unlike David Ortiz, who is a dead pull ground ball hitter (which means a lot of his hard-hit balls are pulled ground balls unto the shift-- which is bad), Napoli hits a lot of ground balls to the opposite field, which means his low BABIP is more likely to be just bad luck. I'm willing to bet he runs something like a 120 wRC+ from now through the end of the season.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 1, 2015 20:58:58 GMT -5
Right so we'll just go right into next season with a garbage rotation. Or maybe they can find another mediocre pitcher in their "prime years" like Rip Porcello to give stupid money too. The Red Sox rotation current ranks: 17th in league- and park-adjusted FIP 18th in league- and park-adjusted xFIP 17th in unadjusted SIERA The pitching is roughly what we thought it was. The problem has been the position player side, both on the field and at the plate. Who's "we"? I recall that the Porcello acquisition and signing each drew a fair amount of enthusiasm around here. Ditto for the Miley acquisition, though on a smaller scale. When I posted that Miley had an ERA-plus of 87 last year, someone argued that that was only one year and not truly predictive of what he'd do in 2015. Some of us were bearish on this year's starting staff because four of the five were below average pitchers last year. But saying "we" knew it would be bad makes it sound like it was an overwhelming consensus. In fact, each of the five SP had backers.
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Post by jmei on Jun 1, 2015 21:13:02 GMT -5
The Red Sox rotation current ranks: 17th in league- and park-adjusted FIP 18th in league- and park-adjusted xFIP 17th in unadjusted SIERA The pitching is roughly what we thought it was. The problem has been the position player side, both on the field and at the plate. Who's "we"? I recall that the Porcello acquisition and signing each drew a fair amount of enthusiasm around here. Ditto for the Miley acquisition, though on a smaller scale. When I posted that Miley had an ERA-plus of 87 last year, someone argued that that was only one year and not truly predictive of what he'd do in 2015. Some of us were bearish on this year's starting staff because four of the five were below average pitchers last year. But saying "we" knew it would be bad makes it sound like it was an overwhelming consensus. In fact, each of the five SP had backers. Fair enough-- let's say "me." I thought the rotation would be slightly below-average this year, and that's pretty much what they've been. If the position player side had kept up its end of the bargain, they'd be leading the division.
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Post by prangerx on Jun 1, 2015 22:03:40 GMT -5
Maybe the answer is to clean house in the FO now and go with the young players? Finish the year with an interium GM. So you can bring in the right guy next year. Perhaps they could even make Ferrall interium GM since he has farm director experience. You could then make trades with any players you could orneeded to trade. I think Hanley will be fine as a power hitter and will most likely be DH when Ortiz retires. Which could be sooner than we think if Ortiz doesn't get going.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 1, 2015 22:16:49 GMT -5
(1.) Hanley cannot play 1B this year. (2.) Hanley has shown he has no future in LF and should have no present in LF. (3.) Hanley might be a DH who fills in at 3B or SS twice per week. (4.) If (3.) doesn't apply, then Hanley is just a full-time DH.
An injury to Ortiz would go along way to solving the team's #1 issue. (Maybe the Cards will take Ortiz as a first baseman ... maybe. Or maybe not.) The best part: Hanley is the kind of DH that doesn't need a pinch-runner.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 1, 2015 22:23:53 GMT -5
Perhaps they could even make Ferrall interium GM since he has farm director experience. I have seen a lot of really bad ideas here lately, such as the proposed Craig/Peguero platoon. But this one really takes the cake. I mean, this idea is worse than signing Mike Carp to play shortstop so we can move Xander to catcher.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jun 1, 2015 22:44:25 GMT -5
I think the mistake the Red Sox have made this year is thinking that their problems were short term fixable. They weren't. They aren't and they have to look in the mirror and admit that. 2013 was an amazing year, but they needed Lackey and Lester to step forward and for Victorino to have an unreal year. The Sox need to start unloading their old expensive players even if it means eating salary. Hanley Ramirez is lazy injury prone and isn't a good enough hitter to make up for these failings. He's a bad apple who never should have been signed. Get rid of him...what ever it takes. Make that a start. I don't think that's what they've done at all. I think they have actually prioritized long-term over near-term. The question is whether there is enough talent close enough to being major league ready to enable them to be a serious contender soon. As I see it, the Red Sox have been trying to simultaneously build a core of young prospects, and sign enough free agent talent -- much of it high-priced -- to still compete for at least a wild card until that core talent is ready. They are doing this because competing financially with the Yankees and the Dodgers while in a substantially smaller market requires them to do so. They don't feel they can admit to being in a rebuilding phase and still maintain a sufficient revenue stream to compete with the big boys. Their free agent signings align with gaps in the farm system. Hanley Ramirez provides the middle of the order bat that, other than Devers, isn't currently in the farm system. He'll make a fine successor to David Ortiz. And while I am not a big fan of Pablo Sandoval, he does fill a void at 3B, now that Garin Checchini seems to have dropped out of the ranks of real prospects. And Porcello, Miley and Kelly give them at least some pitching depth. The Red Sox started the season with a rotation full of prospects in AAA, but realistically, they shouldn't expect to end up with more than one good middle of the rotation guy and a couple of bullpen pieces from those pitchers. However with the addition of Porcello et al, they don't need more than that. Castillo, Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Swihart, Vasquez, and Ramirez have the potential to be a solid lineup, and Holt, Marrero and Brentz could provide a solid bench. The Red Sox would still need to find a first baseman, but that shouldn't be the hardest job in the world. Similarly, Buccholz, Porcello, Rodriguez/Johnson/Owens/Barnes, Miley, Kelly and maybe Wright represent pieces in what could be a good, or with a few breaks even very good, pitching staff. All that's really needed is a top of the rotation starter. And, if they cannot develop one, then ideally that should be the last part they add. Free agent top of the rotation pitchers are only likely to be top of the rotation pitchers for the first half of their contracts; therefore you don't really want to sign one before your core is ready to compete. Fortunately for the Red Sox, their core should be ready next year, and there are three or four top of the rotation starters ready to hit the market. If I am right, the Red Sox will continue to protect their core prospects, and go hard after one of the top of the rotation starters this off-season. At least it's what I hope they do.
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