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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 4, 2015 12:13:34 GMT -5
Rich Hill threw nearly half a relief season's worth of innings, using an arm slot he'd never tried before, got command of his always nasty five-pitch repertoire, and put up a 2.50 xFIP, 2.30 SIERA, 2.28 FIP, and 1.55 ERA. He'll sign a relatively team-friendly contract, and there's no way any reliever you could acquire will project to be more valuable, given his ability to start (and after the first time through the order allowing .242 / .306 / .424 in 36 PA, he allowed .091 / .143 / .106 in 70). [...] Would Hill really sign a team-friendly contract? He's old and has just pitched better than ever before, and this could be his last chance to earn serious money, after earning not much the last ten years. Your comments about his potential value are things that every team in the game will know.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 4, 2015 12:23:48 GMT -5
Rich Hill threw nearly half a relief season's worth of innings, using an arm slot he'd never tried before, got command of his always nasty five-pitch repertoire, and put up a 2.50 xFIP, 2.30 SIERA, 2.28 FIP, and 1.55 ERA. He'll sign a relatively team-friendly contract, and there's no way any reliever you could acquire will project to be more valuable, given his ability to start (and after the first time through the order allowing .242 / .306 / .424 in 36 PA, he allowed .091 / .143 / .106 in 70). [...] Would Hill really sign a team-friendly contract? He's old and has just pitched better than ever before, and this could be his last chance to earn serious money, after earning not much the last ten years. Your comments about his potential value are things that every team in the game will know. Yeah, if I were him, I'd take the most money because this is basically his one shot at a nice retirement without needing to go get a job at Walmart if he doesn't stay in baseball. I really don't think the Red Sox is the best situation for him. Quite a few teams would take him as a starter and hand him a spot in the rotation that the Red Sox will not do. It is definitely a strategy for rebuilding teams to sign guys like this so that they can pick up prospects at the trade deadline. Also something the Red Sox won't (plan on) do(ing). That's probably worth a little more money and maybe an extra year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 4, 2015 13:12:55 GMT -5
Some of the trade proposals obviously makes sense in the context of building a roster. Others are nothing more than marginal dream sequences. Please take those to the trade proposal subforum. I would give examples, but you know who you are.
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 4, 2015 13:22:48 GMT -5
If the Sox go with Sandoval and Hanley next season, and they produce anywhere near their career norms, that's already a massive increase. I don't buy that they'll trade either of them, will be the first to admit I'm wrong if it somehow happens. I have more confidence in Ramirez putting up numbers than Sandoval.
The team also isn't that far from competing. If they get a #1 starter and essentially bump everyone down a spot, they'd be replacing their #5/6 guy with a top end guy, which is a massive boost. I don't think they need to sign many/any back end guys, even on incentive laden contracts. They've got depth, especially in guys that will start the season in Pawtucket
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2015 14:34:57 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Oct 4, 2015 14:39:42 GMT -5
A second quality arm to slot into the 2 or 3 spot would be great, but might hurt prospect-wise. I'd still love to see them trade from excess for an underacheiving or on-the-cusp arm, a la Taijuan Walker or Trevor Bauer. As much as I've advocated trading Miley, in that scenario they could deal Buchholz in ST and keep Miley, whose reliability would offset the young arm's unpredictability. It would basically put Rodriguez in the 2 spot, but if Price is the #1, I'm OK with that. Lester was barely league-average in 2013, and Lackey the de facto 2 when Buchholz went down, and that rotation did fine, with Doubront doing his best Miley impression. They need two top-flight relief arms. Start off with trying to deal for Matt Capps, and explore Kimbrel and Chapman. Surprised Pat Light isn't in the AFL. Hopefully, they keep Jerez around on the 40-man, or if not he doesn't get plucked. Matt Capps hasn't pitched since 2012, so I'm guessing you mean Carter Capps? And as for Trevor Bauer, I really wouldn't want anything to do with him unless he barely costs anything. Even he admits his stuff isn't very good. Hahaha! Yeah, and Matt Capps wasn't very good, either. Dunno why his name was the autocorrect in my head. Bauer has given up too many HR, but RF in Fenway would cut those down. I trust his intelligence to put it all together. And he may not cost all that much, which is why I'd like to see them get him.
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Post by jmei on Oct 4, 2015 14:42:01 GMT -5
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Post by p23w on Oct 4, 2015 18:05:55 GMT -5
Substitute Christian Yelich for a subsidized Castillo and Johnson and choice of Ogando or Hembree and you have my attention.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 4, 2015 19:56:43 GMT -5
I think the Marlins were in on Castillo when the Sox signed him, no? I think including Owens or Miley might be a bit much (I'd definitely prefer they keep Owens, and you've made some good points re: Miley's value as a 3/4). But a subsidized Castillo and a B-grade prospect? I suppose it depends in how down they are on Ozuna. He's kind of a buy-low guy right now. I *would* like to see them move Castillo's contract, even if they have to shell out $15M or so to do it.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 4, 2015 19:59:21 GMT -5
Substitute Christian Yelich for a subsidized Castillo and Johnson and choice of Ogando or Hembree and you have my attention. I'd love to see the Sox get Yelich, but it's not happening for that package unless it's next June after Castillo starts the year hot and Johnson is proven 100% healthy.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 4, 2015 20:20:05 GMT -5
They need two top-flight relief arms. I was as big a champion of this idea as anyone, but it's no longer true. They need one, and in fact, there's barely room for two. Keep in mind that the value of a second added arm is the marginal difference been him and Tazawa in the 7th, Tazawa and whomever is next on the depth chart in the 6th, and so on. It's small. Rich Hill threw nearly half a relief season's worth of innings, using an arm slot he'd never tried before, got command of his always nasty five-pitch repertoire, and put up a 2.50 xFIP, 2.30 SIERA, 2.28 FIP, and 1.55 ERA. He'll sign a relatively team-friendly contract, and there's no way any reliever you could acquire will project to be more valuable, given his ability to start (and after the first time through the order allowing .242 / .306 / .424 in 36 PA, he allowed .091 / .143 / .106 in 70). Ditto for Kelly and Wright; given Buchholz's health and Hill's probable innings limit, they'll get a bunch of starts, too, and Kelly at least has potential to be as good in the pen as the guy who you want to take his innings. And with one or two of those three guys (depending on the health of Buchholz and the others) in the pen and capable of going 2 innings frequently, you can use Layne more as a LOOGY. So that's six spots spoken for. So the second guy, when everyone is healthy, would bump Ross to AAA. And Ross is an above-average MLB reliever who can throw multiple innings himself. And furthermore, Jean Machi, in his last 11 outings, has a 2.60 xFIP, 2.28 SIERA, 4.07 FIP (thanks to a 25.0 HR/FB%), and a 1.86 ERA, which is to say that given his track record he's pitched well enough to keep on the 40-man and take a look at in ST. And perhaps more importantly, Noe Ramirez has a 3.00 xFIP, 2.67 SIERA, 3.89 FIP (again courtesy of a 25.0 HR/FB%), and 3.38 ERA in September, and he'll be in AAA, and Matt Barnes came into today with a 3.62 xFIP, 3.16 SIERA, 3.58 FIP, and 1.00 ERA in September, and he'll be in Pawtucket, too. (These samples may or may not be all that meaningful, but they're certainly way better than sucking). When you add them and Aro to Light and Workman in AAA, there's a very solid chance that you'll get at least one guy who can really help the team at some point. Signing a FA reliever to bump Ross and Machi off the roster and further block all 5 PawSox candidates makes little sense, and trading for one makes even less sense. You'd be much better off taking the money or the talent and using it to get an even better frontline starting pitcher, elite reliever, or fourth OFer. Except, those small differences are additive. A high-quality reliever doesn't replace the next man in line, he replaces the last man in line...the seventh reliever (or sixth, if you consider the seventh the swingman). So even if the difference between Tazawa and the next in line is 0.2-0.4 WAR, etc, the sum total is 1-2 wins as each player bumps down the next in line. I do think it's possible that that pitcher is in-house already, but their bullpen this year was atrocious. I'm all for Hembree, Barnes, Machi, etc. getting their chances, but if Robby Ross has to fight for a spot, I don't feel too bad about it. They can always wheel and deal. It's possible that only one high-leverage guy needs to be signed/traded for, but I think they need at least two outstanding back-end guys, hope Koji comes back, and hope Tazawa can keep doing what he's been doing. I think counting on Hill coming back is dicey, too, for reasons others have mentioned. That said, I wouldn't be averse to them making him a substantial offer (2/$9M) and hoping he sticks around. At 35, he's probably got at least a few bullets left, and he's (if healthy) a supreme swingman. Here's hoping that he does them a favor after they did one for him. He is a local guy, so maybe that has some weight.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 4, 2015 20:52:00 GMT -5
Would Hill really sign a team-friendly contract? He's old and has just pitched better than ever before, and this could be his last chance to earn serious money, after earning not much the last ten years. Your comments about his potential value are things that every team in the game will know. Yeah, if I were him, I'd take the most money because this is basically his one shot at a nice retirement without needing to go get a job at Walmart if he doesn't stay in baseball. I really don't think the Red Sox is the best situation for him. Quite a few teams would take him as a starter and hand him a spot in the rotation that the Red Sox will not do. It is definitely a strategy for rebuilding teams to sign guys like this so that they can pick up prospects at the trade deadline. Also something the Red Sox won't (plan on) do(ing). That's probably worth a little more money and maybe an extra year. I suspect you're correct. While it would be nice to have Rich Hill back, it's more likely he goes elsewhere. He'll probably get more money and definitely more opportunity. On the Red Sox he is one of numerous possibilities. Elsewhere he could catch on for good money (for him, but modest for others) with a team that has less possibilities. As it stands now, the Sox are looking at a trade/FA acquisition, Rodriguez, Buchholz, Porcello, and Miley with Kelly and Wright as possibilities and Owens honing his craft in Pawtucket, along with Johnson. That's a lot of bodies to sort through. Hill might not choose to be in that position.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2015 22:36:09 GMT -5
There is no parallel universe in which the Tigers would even consider trading JD Martinez (2014: 153+, 2015: 138+) for Rusney Castillo (Martinez is even younger). Gose in CF may not be happening, but either is that trade. In fact, I will venture that the Red Sox literally couldn't give him away; they've probably already put him on waivers and he went unclaimed. Obviously you missed the part where I said " some kind of Castillo for [two years of] Martinez swap", because we are less than a year removed from a "some kind of Brett Lawrie for [four years] of Josh Donaldson swap" which, last time I checked , took place in this very universe. (And yes, it was the addition of Lawrie that made the trade work for the A's.) Rusney Castillo has averaged 3.1 bWAR per 150 games in his brief MLB career. Even this year, he was a perfectly OK 2.0, and as we've seen how streaky he is, I'm not sure that you shouldn't bump that up a little to reflect his true talent level. Scouts have always pegged him as about a 2.5 WAR player, and as a 2.0 - 2.5 WAR guy he's definitely worth his current salary. He doesn't have a lot of marginal value relative to salary, but there's no way he has zero value or would go unclaimed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2015 22:56:21 GMT -5
I was as big a champion of this idea as anyone, but it's no longer true. They need one, and in fact, there's barely room for two. Keep in mind that the value of a second added arm is the marginal difference been him and Tazawa in the 7th, Tazawa and whomever is next on the depth chart in the 6th, and so on. It's small. Rich Hill threw nearly half a relief season's worth of innings, using an arm slot he'd never tried before, got command of his always nasty five-pitch repertoire, and put up a 2.50 xFIP, 2.30 SIERA, 2.28 FIP, and 1.55 ERA. He'll sign a relatively team-friendly contract, and there's no way any reliever you could acquire will project to be more valuable, given his ability to start (and after the first time through the order allowing .242 / .306 / .424 in 36 PA, he allowed .091 / .143 / .106 in 70). Ditto for Kelly and Wright; given Buchholz's health and Hill's probable innings limit, they'll get a bunch of starts, too, and Kelly at least has potential to be as good in the pen as the guy who you want to take his innings. And with one or two of those three guys (depending on the health of Buchholz and the others) in the pen and capable of going 2 innings frequently, you can use Layne more as a LOOGY. So that's six spots spoken for. So the second guy, when everyone is healthy, would bump Ross to AAA. And Ross is an above-average MLB reliever who can throw multiple innings himself. And furthermore, Jean Machi, in his last 11 outings, has a 2.60 xFIP, 2.28 SIERA, 4.07 FIP (thanks to a 25.0 HR/FB%), and a 1.86 ERA, which is to say that given his track record he's pitched well enough to keep on the 40-man and take a look at in ST. And perhaps more importantly, Noe Ramirez has a 3.00 xFIP, 2.67 SIERA, 3.89 FIP (again courtesy of a 25.0 HR/FB%), and 3.38 ERA in September, and he'll be in AAA, and Matt Barnes came into today with a 3.62 xFIP, 3.16 SIERA, 3.58 FIP, and 1.00 ERA in September, and he'll be in Pawtucket, too. (These samples may or may not be all that meaningful, but they're certainly way better than sucking). When you add them and Aro to Light and Workman in AAA, there's a very solid chance that you'll get at least one guy who can really help the team at some point. Signing a FA reliever to bump Ross and Machi off the roster and further block all 5 PawSox candidates makes little sense, and trading for one makes even less sense. You'd be much better off taking the money or the talent and using it to get an even better frontline starting pitcher, elite reliever, or fourth OFer. Except, those small differences are additive. A high-quality reliever doesn't replace the next man in line, he replaces the last man in line...the seventh reliever (or sixth, if you consider the seventh the swingman). So even if the difference between Tazawa and the next in line is 0.2-0.4 WAR, etc, the sum total is 1-2 wins as each player bumps down the next in line. I do think it's possible that that pitcher is in-house already, but their bullpen this year was atrocious. I'm all for Hembree, Barnes, Machi, etc. getting their chances, but if Robby Ross has to fight for a spot, I don't feel too bad about it. They can always wheel and deal. It's possible that only one high-leverage guy needs to be signed/traded for, but I think they need at least two outstanding back-end guys, hope Koji comes back, and hope Tazawa can keep doing what he's been doing. I think counting on Hill coming back is dicey, too, for reasons others have mentioned. That said, I wouldn't be averse to them making him a substantial offer (2/$9M) and hoping he sticks around. At 35, he's probably got at least a few bullets left, and he's (if healthy) a supreme swingman. Here's hoping that he does them a favor after they did one for him. He is a local guy, so maybe that has some weight. Nope. I was pointing out precisely the problem with that logic: leverage chaining. The guy you get pitches at an average LI of 1.5, and he bumps a guy off the roster who pitches at 0.5. And everyone in between has their leverage reduced a bit. The result is that the improvement is only (IIRC the empirical study, using actual bullpens, I did for the Sox when we were deciding whether Papelbon should start or relieve) about half the on-paper WAR. You could pick up a c. 1.8 WAR reliever like Kimbrel to bump Ross's 0.7 off the roster, but you end up with only about an 0.6 WAR benefit. But you're paying for all 1.8. Now, having a set of great relievers can be disproportionately valuable in the post-season. But that's a need you address next July 31, if it appears. Re Hill, when I said "team-friendly contract" what I meant to say "will take a hometown discount." Which I think is absolutely and literally true. Whatever he's worth, I believe we can very likely get him for somewhat less, and that makes re-signing him a particularly good idea.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 4, 2015 23:16:45 GMT -5
Would Detroit be open to swapping rameriez for verlander? When dombrowski was there they did the fielder for kinsler swap!
What about now?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 4, 2015 23:27:02 GMT -5
Would Detroit be open to swapping rameriez for verlander? When dombrowski was there they did the fielder for kinsler swap! What about now? Don't know why you're asking us. We're not the GM. But logic would tell you that Verlander is much more valuable than Hanley Ramirez. It wasn't like Verlander came back from the injury and pitched terribly. He was effective, which is a lot more than can be said for Hanley, who is a DH. You don't give up a valuable pitcher for a DH. And why do you always spell RAMIREZ wrong? It's such a common last name in the majors. Before Hanley, the Sox once had a guy who played 8 seasons with them that had that last name.
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Post by thursty on Oct 5, 2015 2:39:53 GMT -5
There is no parallel universe in which the Tigers would even consider trading JD Martinez (2014: 153+, 2015: 138+) for Rusney Castillo (Martinez is even younger). Gose in CF may not be happening, but either is that trade. In fact, I will venture that the Red Sox literally couldn't give him away; they've probably already put him on waivers and he went unclaimed. Obviously you missed the part where I said " some kind of Castillo for [two years of] Martinez swap", because we are less than a year removed from a "some kind of Brett Lawrie for [four years] of Josh Donaldson swap" which, last time I checked , took place in this very universe. (And yes, it was the addition of Lawrie that made the trade work for the A's.) Rusney Castillo has averaged 3.1 bWAR per 150 games in his brief MLB career. Even this year, he was a perfectly OK 2.0, and as we've seen how streaky he is, I'm not sure that you shouldn't bump that up a little to reflect his true talent level. Scouts have always pegged him as about a 2.5 WAR player, and as a 2.0 - 2.5 WAR guy he's definitely worth his current salary. He doesn't have a lot of marginal value relative to salary, but there's no way he has zero value or would go unclaimed. Castillo produced .5 fWAR in ~300 PA in this, his rookie year. As far as waivers, he was placed on waivers this year; and as far as the likelihood of his being claimed, the folks at MLBTR agree with me: "I’d imagine that Napoli (earning $16MM in 2015), Castillo (owed $56.5MM from 2016-20), Ramirez ($66MM from 2016-18) and Masterson (earning $9.5MM in 2015) would each clear just based on salary alone" I couldn't find any reporting on whether he went unclaimed or not. And this is a new form of logic: there was a trade involving Brett Lawrie (and 3 other players) for Josh Donaldson just last year, ergo the Tigers would agree to some form of trade for JD Martinez involving Rusney Castillo. Sure they would, if the Red Sox "threw in" Xander or Mookie I repeat, the Red Sox couldn't give Castillo (and his contract) away.
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Post by SlugLife on Oct 5, 2015 5:07:55 GMT -5
Per MLB Trade Rumors:
Center Fielders Rajai Davis (35) Dexter Fowler (30) Austin Jackson (29) Colby Rasmus (29) Denard Span (32) Drew Stubbs (31)
Given the dearth of CF free agents this offseason, I think the Red Sox could pick up something useful for Castillo. 5 years/$60 million for a five-tool guy on the right side of 30 will appeal to someone who loses out of Dexter Fowler or any of the premier corner outfielders hitting free agency this winter. I don't think the Red Sox will get any prospects of note for Rusney, but they could get a useful bullpen piece or everyday player.
One fit that comes to mind is the Mariners, who need a much more athletic outfield and have two expiring contracts in Seth Smith and Mark Trumbo, both of whom could play left field at Fenway and neither of whom fits Seattle's long term plans.
The Angels need some power in left field and could part with someone like Joe Smith, who would be a good fit in Boston's bullpen.
The Twins, Astros, Royals, and Giants are all teams that come to mind that could miss out of some of the bigger names and might be willing to take a chance on Rusney.
Of course, the most important question is who players left field if Rusney is traded. If the answer is spending $7-8 million per year on someone like Steve Pearce or $18-20 million per year on Alex Gordon, we might be better off with Rusney. This is why I like Seattle in particular as a fit, as either Smith or Trumbo would be an adequate 2016 option in left field until one of our elite prospects is ready for LF or RF.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 5, 2015 7:57:41 GMT -5
There is no parallel universe in which the Tigers would even consider trading JD Martinez (2014: 153+, 2015: 138+) for Rusney Castillo (Martinez is even younger). Gose in CF may not be happening, but either is that trade. In fact, I will venture that the Red Sox literally couldn't give him away; they've probably already put him on waivers and he went unclaimed. Obviously you missed the part where I said " some kind of Castillo for [two years of] Martinez swap", because we are less than a year removed from a "some kind of Brett Lawrie for [four years] of Josh Donaldson swap" which, last time I checked , took place in this very universe. (And yes, it was the addition of Lawrie that made the trade work for the A's.) Rusney Castillo has averaged 3.1 bWAR per 150 games in his brief MLB career. Even this year, he was a perfectly OK 2.0, and as we've seen how streaky he is, I'm not sure that you shouldn't bump that up a little to reflect his true talent level. Scouts have always pegged him as about a 2.5 WAR player, and as a 2.0 - 2.5 WAR guy he's definitely worth his current salary. He doesn't have a lot of marginal value relative to salary, but there's no way he has zero value or would go unclaimed. Does baserunning count only when we are talking about how Xander is as good as Stanton, and not when we are weighing how attractive (or unattractive) Rusney might be in a trade?
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Post by Guidas on Oct 5, 2015 9:05:20 GMT -5
Per MLB Trade Rumors: Center FieldersRajai Davis (35) Dexter Fowler (30) Austin Jackson (29) Colby Rasmus (29) Denard Span (32) Drew Stubbs (31)Given the dearth of CF free agents this offseason, I think the Red Sox could pick up something useful for Castillo. 5 years/$60 million for a five-tool guy on the right side of 30 will appeal to someone who loses out of Dexter Fowler or any of the premier corner outfielders hitting free agency this winter. I don't think the Red Sox will get any prospects of note for Rusney, but they could get a useful bullpen piece or everyday player. One fit that comes to mind is the Mariners, who need a much more athletic outfield and have two expiring contracts in Seth Smith and Mark Trumbo, both of whom could play left field at Fenway and neither of whom fits Seattle's long term plans. The Angels need some power in left field and could part with someone like Joe Smith, who would be a good fit in Boston's bullpen. The Twins, Astros, Royals, and Giants are all teams that come to mind that could miss out of some of the bigger names and might be willing to take a chance on Rusney. Of course, the most important question is who players left field if Rusney is traded. If the answer is spending $7-8 million per year on someone like Steve Pearce or $18-20 million per year on Alex Gordon, we might be better off with Rusney. This is why I like Seattle in particular as a fit, as either Smith or Trumbo would be an adequate 2016 option in left field until one of our elite prospects is ready for LF or RF. If Castillo was a five-tool guy, the Sox wouldn't consider trading him. The call to be made is if he can hit well enough to justify him playing a corner OF position. He is a CF, and in that role has value to a team that needs a CF, and if the Sox picked up 1-2 yrs salary, he would be a very good value with this year's numbers, as long as one buys into the fact that that's his floor performance.
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Post by SlugLife on Oct 5, 2015 13:12:16 GMT -5
If Castillo was a five-tool guy, the Sox wouldn't consider trading him. The call to be made is if he can hit well enough to justify him playing a corner OF position. He is a CF, and in that role has value to a team that needs a CF, and if the Sox picked up 1-2 yrs salary, he would be a very good value with this year's numbers, as long as one buys into the fact that that's his floor performance. Fair enough - perhaps I should have qualified that he has five tool potential. But that potential has value, especially since Rusney still has his best years ahead of him (in theory). I stand by my analysis, that based on his age and potential there will be several teams this off-season willing to trade a major league spare part for Rusney Castillo at 5 years/$60 million.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 5, 2015 14:50:08 GMT -5
Except, those small differences are additive. A high-quality reliever doesn't replace the next man in line, he replaces the last man in line...the seventh reliever (or sixth, if you consider the seventh the swingman). So even if the difference between Tazawa and the next in line is 0.2-0.4 WAR, etc, the sum total is 1-2 wins as each player bumps down the next in line. I do think it's possible that that pitcher is in-house already, but their bullpen this year was atrocious. I'm all for Hembree, Barnes, Machi, etc. getting their chances, but if Robby Ross has to fight for a spot, I don't feel too bad about it. They can always wheel and deal. It's possible that only one high-leverage guy needs to be signed/traded for, but I think they need at least two outstanding back-end guys, hope Koji comes back, and hope Tazawa can keep doing what he's been doing. I think counting on Hill coming back is dicey, too, for reasons others have mentioned. That said, I wouldn't be averse to them making him a substantial offer (2/$9M) and hoping he sticks around. At 35, he's probably got at least a few bullets left, and he's (if healthy) a supreme swingman. Here's hoping that he does them a favor after they did one for him. He is a local guy, so maybe that has some weight. Nope. I was pointing out precisely the problem with that logic: leverage chaining. The guy you get pitches at an average LI of 1.5, and he bumps a guy off the roster who pitches at 0.5. And everyone in between has their leverage reduced a bit. The result is that the improvement is only (IIRC the empirical study, using actual bullpens, I did for the Sox when we were deciding whether Papelbon should start or relieve) about half the on-paper WAR. You could pick up a c. 1.8 WAR reliever like Kimbrel to bump Ross's 0.7 off the roster, but you end up with only about an 0.6 WAR benefit. But you're paying for all 1.8. Now, having a set of great relievers can be disproportionately valuable in the post-season. But that's a need you address next July 31, if it appears. Re Hill, when I said "team-friendly contract" what I meant to say "will take a hometown discount." Which I think is absolutely and literally true. Whatever he's worth, I believe we can very likely get him for somewhat less, and that makes re-signing him a particularly good idea. Ah, I getcha now. Makes sense; admittedly I hadn't considered the loss of WAR by sequentially reduced leverage. And yeah, I agree that Hill may be inclined to stick around on a hometown discount, but I have trouble getting a bead on exactly what that ends up being. I would think somebody might offer him a Masterson-like one-year deal, in which case the Sox would need to go 2/14 or something.
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Post by jclmontana on Oct 5, 2015 15:18:51 GMT -5
Nope. I was pointing out precisely the problem with that logic: leverage chaining. The guy you get pitches at an average LI of 1.5, and he bumps a guy off the roster who pitches at 0.5. And everyone in between has their leverage reduced a bit. The result is that the improvement is only (IIRC the empirical study, using actual bullpens, I did for the Sox when we were deciding whether Papelbon should start or relieve) about half the on-paper WAR. You could pick up a c. 1.8 WAR reliever like Kimbrel to bump Ross's 0.7 off the roster, but you end up with only about an 0.6 WAR benefit. But you're paying for all 1.8. Now, having a set of great relievers can be disproportionately valuable in the post-season. But that's a need you address next July 31, if it appears. Re Hill, when I said "team-friendly contract" what I meant to say "will take a hometown discount." Which I think is absolutely and literally true. Whatever he's worth, I believe we can very likely get him for somewhat less, and that makes re-signing him a particularly good idea. Ah, I getcha now. Makes sense; admittedly I hadn't considered the loss of WAR by sequentially reduced leverage. And yeah, I agree that Hill may be inclined to stick around on a hometown discount, but I have trouble getting a bead on exactly what that ends up being. I would think somebody might offer him a Masterson-like one-year deal, in which case the Sox would need to go 2/14 or something. Two thoughts, and they are really questions. I can't seem to find the article where he says it explicitly, but I thought I read Hill really sees himself as a starter and not as a reliever. I am sure money is important, but I doubt he goes anywhere to be a swingman or long reliever. Given his history of arm troubles and age, that may not be a very good role for him anyway. In regards to Eric's analysis of leverage affecting the value of bringing in two versus one bullpen "ace:" It seems that a rotation like the sox are likely to have next year, with 3-4 guys of dubious reliability, would provide a lot of high leverage situations for the pen to navigate. Therefore, Eric's analysis may undervalue the worth of 2 versus one high end guy for the bullpen. Maybe I am just reacting emotionally to the suckage of the 2015 relievers, but I really want to see an across the board upgrade of the bullpen.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 13, 2015 13:19:14 GMT -5
I think this was the best thread ever. If read from beginning to end it falls somewhere between War and Peace and the craziest performance art of the 90s (when people were covering themselves in chocolate and stuff veggies into their bodies) - and getting mid six-figure checks from the NEA to do so).
Just fantastic.
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Post by jmei on Oct 14, 2015 12:48:56 GMT -5
Per Alex Speier's newsletter today, assuming the Red Sox have the same ~$200m AAV payroll next year as they did this year (which may or may not be a reasonable assumption-- Dombrowski said yesterday that they won't be spending less than that next year, but I could see them spending more), the front office should have approximately $32m to spend this offseason. That's a decent chunk of cash, but probably not enough to add all the pieces that folks have been clamoring for (an ace, a stud reliever or two, a fourth outfielder) solely through free agency without moving money elsewhere.
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