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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2015 17:55:05 GMT -5
Espinoza {is} making another jump in the September 1 rankings update). I've got it Moncada, Espinoza (!), Benintendi (!), Devers, Owens, Margot, Guerra, Johnson, but 2 through 4 are subject to change (Benny's the tough guy to rank). Very curious as to what the site will say.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 26, 2015 18:54:11 GMT -5
Espinoza {is} making another jump in the September 1 rankings update). I've got it Moncada, Espinoza (!), Benintendi (!), Devers, Owens, Margot, Guerra, Johnson, but 2 through 4 are subject to change (Benny's the tough guy to rank). Very curious as to what the site will say. You may, but Espinoza won't be that high
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 26, 2015 18:59:41 GMT -5
Espinoza {is} making another jump in the September 1 rankings update). I've got it Moncada, Espinoza (!), Benintendi (!), Devers, Owens, Margot, Guerra, Johnson, but 2 through 4 are subject to change (Benny's the tough guy to rank). Very curious as to what the site will say. I made a new thread in the meta forum, for those interested.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 26, 2015 19:07:59 GMT -5
And to help you wrap your head around this, no, GCL stats aren't very useful at all, but anytime a guy with scouting reports like AE's has a set of numbers this extreme, it is meaningful, in that it eliminates the possibility that, for some reason, the exceptional stuff doesn't lead to exceptional results. This is basically my view. If some random pitcher with middling scouting reports put up the exact same numbers as Espinoza, I'd probably not even notice. Or if I did, I'd think, "ha, GCL! What are you gonna do?" It would tell me nothing. But with Espinoza, it's merely evidence that he can translate his (reportedly) awesome stuff into stretches of dominance.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 28, 2015 0:45:20 GMT -5
From last week but just had me thinking about what evaluators see: more love for AE from Josh Norris at BA:
Alex (Baltimore): Who had the higher upside and who is more likely to reach it, Kilome or Anderson Espinoza? It seems like Espinoza is more refined right now but Kilome has so much projectibility with his body type. Josh Norris: Gosh, I really like both of those guys (Hoping against hope that Kilome is with Lakewood for the final series of the year), but Espinoza is in a class by himself. 17 years old, up to 98 miles per hour, with two developed offspeed pitches. He could be a monster among monsters.
Just believe.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 28, 2015 6:34:50 GMT -5
It will be very interesting to see how aggressive they are with his promotions if the dominance continues now that Dombrowski is running the organization. You could say the same for all of our top guys but Espinoza in particular will be fascinating in that regard.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2015 6:40:10 GMT -5
It will be very interesting to see how aggressive they are with his promotions if the dominance continues now that Dombrowski is running the organization. You could say the same for all of our top guys but Espinoza in particular will be fascinating in that regard. Well in order to be ready for the majors, he's going to need to struggle a little at some point. So I imagine they almost have to be pretty aggressive. Once you get used to baseball life and build strength, the main thing left is that you need to be challenged.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 28, 2015 7:07:30 GMT -5
They also have to build innings, so he can't be in the majors next year (not that anyone's saying he would be). I expect late 2018 (age 20) is the absolute earliest we'd see him, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all if it were late 2020 (though he'll have lost a little shine if it takes that long). By 2018 he could conceivably get up to 175 innings pitched, so a short leash or bullpen role in September isn't out of the question.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2015 19:40:56 GMT -5
They also have to build innings, so he can't be in the majors next year (not that anyone's saying he would be). I expect late 2018 (age 20) is the absolute earliest we'd see him, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all if it were late 2020 (though he'll have lost a little shine if it takes that long). By 2018 he could conceivably get up to 175 innings pitched, so a short leash or bullpen role in September isn't out of the question. I think there's a very serious chance that he'll be good enough to pitch in MLB at age 19, at some point in 2017. In which case, of course, you use him out of the pen, as carefully as possible. That allows him to keep learning.
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Post by dewey1972 on Aug 28, 2015 20:16:39 GMT -5
JJ Cooper showed some serious love for Espinoza in today's chat:
Mrs. Featherbottom (California): What are your thoughts on Anderson Espinoza and Bobby Bradley? J.J. Cooper: Bradley is having a great year in the Midwest League. That’s rare power for a first-year high school draftee playing in the MWL. But let’s spend more time gushing about Espinoza. You can make the argument that Espinoza is one of the best pitching prospects in the minors right now. Yes, that is a crazy statement in a way, but he has exceptional stuff, advanced feel and a solid delivery. Anyone and everyone who has seen him in the DSL/GCL cannot stop gushing about him. He should be ready to handle a jump to the Sally League next year and with his stuff, he may be too good for that league as an 18-year-old. The sky is truly the limit with Espinoza.
Tyler (Nj): Anderson Espinosa upside Urias?? Thanks J.J. Cooper: Yeah, that kind of upside.
Johnny (Minnesota): I caught the last two starts of Anderson Espinoza and his stuff wss ridiculously off the charts, hitting 98 with secondaries that flashed plus. Is he for real? I've never seen any pitching prospect like him before, and I've been watching prospects for 20 years. He's a monster, huh? J.J. Cooper: He’s a Godzilla with an extra dose of gamma rays monster. if you wanted to argue him as one of the top 10 players in the minors as far as trade value, I wouldn’t laugh you out of the room.
Tyler (Nj): Anderson Espinosa a future top 10 prospect? J.J. Cooper: Yes.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 28, 2015 20:36:42 GMT -5
Wow. Not even hedging one bit.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 29, 2015 0:11:01 GMT -5
Wow. Not even hedging one bit. Nope. Gotta love the "no-doubter" label.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 29, 2015 7:41:00 GMT -5
JJ Cooper showed some serious love for Espinoza in today's chat: Mrs. Featherbottom (California): What are your thoughts on Anderson Espinoza and Bobby Bradley? J.J. Cooper: Bradley is having a great year in the Midwest League. That’s rare power for a first-year high school draftee playing in the MWL. But let’s spend more time gushing about Espinoza. You can make the argument that Espinoza is one of the best pitching prospects in the minors right now. Yes, that is a crazy statement in a way, but he has exceptional stuff, advanced feel and a solid delivery. Anyone and everyone who has seen him in the DSL/GCL cannot stop gushing about him. He should be ready to handle a jump to the Sally League next year and with his stuff, he may be too good for that league as an 18-year-old. The sky is truly the limit with Espinoza. Haha ... "yeah, yeah, Bobby Bradley, whatever, 27 HRs, yadda, yadda. Now more Anderson Espinoza!" Man, Espinoza and Moncada are quite a duo. All due respect to Bogaerts and Betts (and Swihart!), but i've never seen a pair of prospects be so exciting at the same time (Betts and Bogaerts didn't quite overlap like this). If there was a way to lay down a bet on the 2018 or 2019 WS, I'd put my money on the Sox.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 29, 2015 7:44:06 GMT -5
Don't forget Devers and Benintendi
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Post by stevedillard on Aug 29, 2015 8:40:38 GMT -5
Remember, tnstaapp
17 and five levels to go without injury.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 29, 2015 10:41:44 GMT -5
Every time I hear this, I get upset that Espinosa wasn't pushed harder this year. Then I remember who I was as a Junior in high school, and realize why at that young age, a dormitory-style living situation, especially in a new country/language is not just good, but crucial for the progression of a phenom like this kid. Here's hoping he see Salem next year... in which case I'd have to revise my "late-2018 earliest possible ETA" statement.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 29, 2015 18:40:24 GMT -5
Remember, tnstaapp 17 and five two levels to go without injury. FIFY, in terms of talent. And I'm at least half serious. Call it 55%. If it's not two; it's three.
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Post by stevedillard on Aug 30, 2015 10:37:59 GMT -5
Just a reminder of how far away the GCL is. Here are the top 10 lists I could locate. Occasionally the top guy, Ramirez, Kershaw, Sano, actually becomes a very good MLBer. Most, even the top 1 or 2, never even make it to the upper levels.
2002 1. *Hanley Ramirez, ss, Red Sox 2. Rudy Guillen, of, Yankees. 3. *Merkin Valdez, rhp, Braves. 4. *Leo Nunez, rhp, Pirates. 5. Jose Diaz, rhp, Dodgers. 6. *Elizardo Ramirez, rhp, Phillies. 7. Joaquin Arias, ss, Yankees. 8. Alex Romero, of, Twins. 9. *Luis Hernandez, ss, Braves. 10. *Brent Clevlen, of, Tigers.
2006 1. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers 2. Chris Parmelee, of/1b, Twins 3. Gorkys Hernandez, of, Tigers 4. Chris Marrero, of, Nationals 5. Jason Place, of, Red Sox 6. Dellin Betances, rhp, Yankees 7. Adrian Cardenas, ss, Phillies 8. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Braves 9. Jhonny Nunez, rhp, Dodgers 10. Tom Hickman, of, Marlins
2007 1. Michael Burgess, of, Nationals 2. Jesus Montero, c, Yankees 3. Ben Revere, of, Twins 4. Che-Hsuan Lin, of, Red Sox 5. John Tolisano, 2b, Blue Jays 6. Pedro Baez, 3b, Dodgers 7. Oscar Tejeda, ss, Red Sox 8. Neftali Soto, ss, Reds 9. Luis de la Cruz, c, Cardinals 10. Andrew Lambo, of/1b, Dodgers
2008 1. Aaron Hicks, of, Twins 2. Kyle Skipworth, c, Marlins 3. Jefry Marte, 3b, Mets 4. Jason Knapp, rhp, Phillies 5. Michael Almanzar, 3b, Red Sox 6. Casey Kelly, ss/rhp, Red Sox 7. Sebastian Valle, c, Phillies 8. Zach Collier, of, Phillies 9. Jack McGeary, lhp, Nationals 10. Abner Abreu, 3b, Indians
2009 1. Christian Bethancourt, c, Braves 2. Kelvin De Leon, of, Yankees 3. Reymond Fuentes, of, Red Sox 4. Jarred Cosart, rhp, Phillies 5. Carlos Perez, c, Blue Jays 6. Adrian Salcedo, rhp, Twins 7. Jonathan Singleton, 1b, Phillies 8. Destin Hood, of, Nationals 9. Tanner Bushue, rhp, Astros 10. Domingo Santana, of, Phillies
2010 1. Gary Sanchez, c, Yankees 2. Miguel Sano, 3b/ss, Twins 3. Justin O’Conner, c, Rays 4. Jake Marisnick, of, Blue Jays 5. Matt Lipka, ss, Braves 6. Juan Urbina, lhp, Mets 7. Jesse Biddle, lhp, Phillies 8. Aaron Altherr, of, Phillies 9. Max Kepler, of, Twins 10. Cito Culver, ss, Yankees
2011 1. Dante Bichette Jr., 3b, Yankees 2. Ravel Santana, of, Yankees 3. Luis Heredia, rhp, Pirates 4. Brenny Paulino, rhp, Tigers 5. Jose Osuna, 1b/of, Pirates 6. Raul Alcantara, rhp, Red Sox 7. Jose Vinicio, ss, Red Sox 8. Adonys Cardona, rhp, Blue Jays 9. Claudio Custodio, ss, Yankees 10. Danry Vasquez, of, Tigers
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Post by borisman on Aug 30, 2015 10:50:47 GMT -5
The good thing is, I guess, is that there is only one pitching prospect ranked no.1 on those lists and he's not half bad.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 30, 2015 11:16:03 GMT -5
Just a reminder of how far away the GCL is. Here are the top 10 lists I could locate. Occasionally the top guy, Ramirez, Kershaw, Sano, actually becomes a very good MLBer. Most, even the top 1 or 2, never even make it to the upper levels. ... 2008 1. Aaron Hicks, of, Twins 2. Kyle Skipworth, c, Marlins 3. Jefry Marte, 3b, Mets 4. Jason Knapp, rhp, Phillies 5. Michael Almanzar, 3b, Red Sox ... Michael Almanzar, hitting .228 .274 .309 .583 this year for Norfolk at age 24
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 30, 2015 11:46:18 GMT -5
Just a reminder of how far away the GCL is. Here are the top 10 lists I could locate. Occasionally the top guy, Ramirez, Kershaw, Sano, actually becomes a very good MLBer. Most, even the top 1 or 2, never even make it to the upper levels. This is pretty misleading, though. How many of those guys were top 50 or even top 100 overall prospects at the time they were in the GCL? It's a short list but it's a much higher % of names like the ones you mentioned, who became stars. Espinoza belongs in that category, not with Che-Hsuan Lin. Of course he's still an extremely low-certainty guy, but unless his arm falls off (which I admit is a distinct possibility) he's got as good a chance as just about any other pitching prospect you'll see at that level.
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Post by jmei on Aug 30, 2015 14:12:49 GMT -5
Pour one out for Che-Hsuan Lin.
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Post by fisterroboto on Aug 30, 2015 17:19:12 GMT -5
Pour one out for Che-Hsuan Lin. The sole reason I'm not excited about Bryan Hudson.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 30, 2015 20:03:35 GMT -5
Sidd Finch
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 30, 2015 20:21:36 GMT -5
Just a reminder of how far away the GCL is. Here are the top 10 lists I could locate. Occasionally the top guy, Ramirez, Kershaw, Sano, actually becomes a very good MLBer. Most, even the top 1 or 2, never even make it to the upper levels. This is pretty misleading, though. How many of those guys were top 50 or even top 100 overall prospects at the time they were in the GCL? It's a short list but it's a much higher % of names like the ones you mentioned, who became stars. Espinoza belongs in that category, not with Che-Hsuan Lin. Of course he's still an extremely low-certainty guy, but unless his arm falls off (which I admit is a distinct possibility) he's got as good a chance as just about any other pitching prospect you'll see at that level. Four top 50 and two more in the top 100. 19. Hanley Ramirez. 24. Clayton Kershaw. 30. Gary Sanchez. After a down year last year, having a really good one this year. Catcher with an 849 OPS in AAA at age 22. 39. Aaron Hicks. Has improved steadily from ages 23 to 25 and is a 2.4 bWAR/150 player this year. 63. Jesus Montero. Doing a pre-August-2015 JBJ imitation with the Mariners (894 MLE OPS in AAA this year, 609 in 74 PA in MLB. Still 25.) 94. Miguel Sano. Having a 5.1 bWAR/150 rookie half-season despite the too-stiff DH adjustment, with a 162 OPS+. Kershaw at age 18 sat 93-94 and touched 96. He had "impeccable fastball command," a "plus curveball" that "still gets loopy and hangs in the zone at times," "feel for a circle change-up that could become a third above-average pitch," and a "lovely setting" with a "fun, funky ambiance" (no wait, that's La Casa De Pedro in Watertown).
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