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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 9, 2015 14:33:01 GMT -5
For all we know those long fingers are double-jointed.
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 9, 2015 14:57:03 GMT -5
For all we know those long fingers are double-jointed. You know what they say about long fingers......... High spin rates.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Oct 9, 2015 17:54:47 GMT -5
Just wanted to add this here from a post from one of the minor league game day threads. I saw a blurb about spin rates watching the Rangers/Blue Jays game and now see that Espinoza's 2890 spin rate on a slider (he throws a slider?) is higher than any other major league pitcher based on Stat Cast. I forgot who was 1st, but it was 2700 something. It was probably an average. Garrett Richards' slider spins at 2779 and is 2nd best in MLB. The guy who tweeted that (they were posting MPH and spin rates on the jet blue scoreboard) said 2890 was a rough median.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 10, 2015 10:04:55 GMT -5
Just wanted to add this here from a post from one of the minor league game day threads. I saw a blurb about spin rates watching the Rangers/Blue Jays game and now see that Espinoza's 2890 spin rate on a slider (he throws a slider?) is higher than any other major league pitcher based on Stat Cast. I forgot who was 1st, but it was 2700 something. It was probably an average. Garrett Richards' slider spins at 2779 and is 2nd best in MLB. The guy who tweeted that (they were posting MPH and spin rates on the jet blue scoreboard) said 2890 was a rough median. The Espinoza reports are staring to have a Paul Bunyan-esque quality to them
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Post by bosox81 on Oct 10, 2015 10:24:55 GMT -5
Well that takes care of the "Acquiring an Ace: FA or Trade" question doesn't it?
Option C: Promote Anderson Espinoza
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Post by humanbeingbean on Oct 10, 2015 11:34:11 GMT -5
I wonder if Anderson even realizes how much hype is surrounding him... I mean, I'm sure he does, but does he really realize how great he can even be? It's just going to be amazing to watch him next year, and Kopech, for that matter. If they both reach their ceilings, or even close to that, complemented by the young core of Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, and Moncada, Devers, Margot/Benintendi arriving relatively soon... just wow. I'm sure there'll be trades that won't keep every player around, but let's just pray that Dombrowski wants to keep this amazing core together. Let's hope he lets our own aces develop, complemented by a FA signing, and possibly by trading for one of Carrasco, Quintana, etc. If everything falls together, and we somehow unload Hanley, and Pablo rebounds to replacement level, at least, this is seriously going to be a powerhouse of a team for a long, long time. The optimism within the organization has to be through the roof, compared to say, the barren Mariners.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 10, 2015 12:23:00 GMT -5
I wonder if Anderson even realizes how much hype is surrounding him... I mean, I'm sure he does, but does he really realize how great he can even be? It's just going to be amazing to watch him next year, and Kopech, for that matter. If they both reach their ceilings, or even close to that, complemented by the young core of Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, and Moncada, Devers, Margot/Benintendi arriving relatively soon... just wow. I'm sure there'll be trades that won't keep every player around, but let's just pray that Dombrowski wants to keep this amazing core together. Let's hope he lets our own aces develop, complemented by a FA signing, and possibly by trading for one of Carrasco, Quintana, etc. If everything falls together, and we somehow unload Hanley, and Pablo rebounds to replacement level, at least, this is seriously going to be a powerhouse of a team for a long, long time. The optimism within the organization has to be through the roof, compared to say, the barren Mariners. As several color guy announcers/former players said over this season in discussing this, players hear what is going on, even if they don't listen/read themselves. Family, friends, team mates, even media people keep them imformed. Because so much "news" and opinions are of National Enquirer quality created for readership, these players have to develop thick skins early on. Imagine what young Sox prospects assume after someone as talented and hard working as JBJ, Owens, Rusney, Swihart, Iggy gets lambasted for not living up to the exalted standards we set for them. Espinoza likely knows he is good and maybe better if everything goes right. He also knows some kidney puches and shots in the back are waiting in the wings if he makes a wrong turn. IMO, that alone makes them worth big $$ if they can develop their talent and navigate the fan/media gauntlet. I wonder what would happen if we treated our kids that way, or our parents treated us that way.
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dd
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Post by dd on Oct 10, 2015 15:23:14 GMT -5
As several color guy announcers/former players said over this season in discussing this, players hear what is going on, even if they don't listen/read themselves. Family, friends, team mates, even media people keep them imformed. Because so much "news" and opinions are of National Enquirer quality created for readership, these players have to develop thick skins early on. Imagine what young Sox prospects assume after someone as talented and hard working as JBJ, Owens, Rusney, Swihart, Iggy gets lambasted for not living up to the exalted standards we set for them. Espinoza likely knows he is good and maybe better if everything goes right. He also knows some kidney puches and shots in the back are waiting in the wings if he makes a wrong turn. IMO, that alone makes them worth big $$ if they can develop their talent and navigate the fan/media gauntlet. I wonder what would happen if we treated our kids that way, or our parents treated us that way. This. It's amazing that there's ever a pro athlete with any sense of humility. By humility here I mean anything below thinking one is God's gift to the world, because that's how they're treated from a very young age. Bryce Harper is kind of a poster boy for this. I can't bring myself to like him but jeez it's easy to understand how he got that way. ARod probably another that comes to mind quickly.
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 14, 2015 12:59:49 GMT -5
Not a big surprise but I asked Keith Law in his Periscope chat if he would take Espinoza or Groome (who he had just said was the best prep pitcher in 2016 although not as good as Brady Aiken) and he said Espinoza, with the obvious caveat that it's not really a fair comparison since Neo is already a pro and has faced pro hitters.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Oct 16, 2015 12:56:58 GMT -5
From the scouting scratch today, Ian wrote this: I want to dedicate my life to that pitch because...
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 16, 2015 13:52:17 GMT -5
We better hire a body guard for this kid's right arm. I don't want anything touching it ever.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 16, 2015 15:25:03 GMT -5
A healthy Espinoza throws 120?...That would make him the Son of Sidd Finch.
This is the first time I have ever heard of spin rates being measured or discussed....but sometimes announcers will comment of a pitch that doesn't break saying "that was just a spinner". In those cases do the pitches not have much break because the spin rate is lower (which would make sense) or for some other reason?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 16, 2015 16:01:19 GMT -5
One more product of technology. It wasn't too very long ago that it wasn't possible to measure such a thing. Now it is. That's correct, the spin rate gives an idea of the potential break. How and how much is probably a function of the attitude of the seam with respect to the rotation axis, and whether that rotation axis is itself changing over the course of the trajectory.
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Post by beantown on Oct 16, 2015 16:14:03 GMT -5
One more product of technology. It wasn't too very long ago that it wasn't possible to measure such a thing. Now it is. That's correct, the spin rate gives an idea of the potential break. How and how much is probably a function of the attitude of the seam with respect to the rotation axis, and whether that rotation axis is itself changing over the course of the trajectory. Good, concise description of spin rate. How amazing is it that we can measure something like that these days?
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Post by telson13 on Oct 16, 2015 22:49:42 GMT -5
One more product of technology. It wasn't too very long ago that it wasn't possible to measure such a thing. Now it is. That's correct, the spin rate gives an idea of the potential break. How and how much is probably a function of the attitude of the seam with respect to the rotation axis, and whether that rotation axis is itself changing over the course of the trajectory. Good, concise description of spin rate. How amazing is it that we can measure something like that these days? I'm not sure about breaking pitches, but I've seen an analysis (BA maybe?) that showed very high FB spin rates (four seamers) were associated with swings-and-misses, while very low spin rates (two-seamers) were associated with high GB rate. I think they said at the highest end, FB spin rates approached breaking pitches and were hard to differentiate based on spin...along with the velo difference and the tendency to ride. Low spin rate FB tended to dip, thus the GB. I also saw somewhere that the Astros targeted acquiring McHugh because of his elite CB spin rate...and once out of CO, I'm sure the break improved. So these data definitely guide personnel decisions with at least some teams. If he doesn't already throw a four-seam, Espinoza might benefit if he can spin it like his slider.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 17, 2015 11:00:23 GMT -5
Good, concise description of spin rate. How amazing is it that we can measure something like that these days? I'm not sure about breaking pitches, but I've seen an analysis (BA maybe?) that showed very high FB spin rates (four seamers) were associated with swings-and-misses, while very low spin rates (two-seamers) were associated with high GB rate. I think they said at the highest end, FB spin rates approached breaking pitches and were hard to differentiate based on spin...along with the velo difference and the tendency to ride. Low spin rate FB tended to dip, thus the GB. I also saw somewhere that the Astros targeted acquiring McHugh because of his elite CB spin rate...and once out of CO, I'm sure the break improved. So these data definitely guide personnel decisions with at least some teams. If he doesn't already throw a four-seam, Espinoza might benefit if he can spin it like his slider. The effect of spin rate on a two-seamer depends on the arm slot. First, to clarify, the different grip of a two-seamer gives it a more angled spin axis. It's the equivalent of dropping your arm slot down, and so a two-seamer thrown with the same arm slot and spin rate as a four-seamer will have less rise and more arm-side run. Some pitchers have a lower spin rate on their two-seamer, but many do not. Most pitchers have a wide range of spin rates on their fastballs, and I've always wondered to what degree that's conscious. Low spin gives you more perceived sink relative to expectations (actually, less absolute rise) and will indeed get you grounders. However, it also produces less arm-side run. Guys who throw three-quarters or lower and thus already have natural arm-side run, and less variation in vertical movement, are definitely better off with less spin on their two-seamer. The more over the top you are, however, the more your natural movement is in the vertical plane rather than the horizontal, and in those cases I think the spin rate variation creates more of a stylistic difference than one in quality. You can still get a lot of grounders with 2" less rise than your four-seamer, and arm-side run gets you swings and misses, and allows you to backdoor the pitch on the outside corner to righties and inside to lefties. I'm going to guess that Espinoza is throwing at least some two-seamers with a lot of spin, because observers do note how much arm-side run he gets. But that he gets a ton of grounders suggests that he also throws some with a lower spin rate. And that gets me thinking about where the natural variation in spin rate (which will lead to more effectiveness, just as changing speeds does) comes from. Is it a benefit of long fingers? And can Espinoza consciously vary the movement between more sink and more am-side run (which is to say, vary the spin)? That's something a smart kid would discover messing around with the pitch and how to grip and release it. And I do think that having long fingers would give you more options in that department. Can't wait to see some pitch/fx data from him.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 17, 2015 11:20:56 GMT -5
The prospect site has Espinoza listed at 6'0", 170. The Fort Report has him at 6'1", 190. Did he really put on 20 pounds this year? Whoo -- of course, getting into a pro sports program that deals with good nutrition may do that.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 17, 2015 12:25:59 GMT -5
The prospect site has Espinoza listed at 6'0", 170. The Fort Report has him at 6'1", 190. Did he really put on 20 pounds this year? Whoo -- of course, getting into a pro sports program that deals with good nutrition may do that. I've seen him 3 times, and he looks bigger than 170 lbs. If I had to guess, I would put the figure closer to 180.....so maybe he is 190.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 17, 2015 15:09:27 GMT -5
The prospect site has Espinoza listed at 6'0", 170. The Fort Report has him at 6'1", 190. Did he really put on 20 pounds this year? Whoo -- of course, getting into a pro sports program that deals with good nutrition may do that. Being 17 years old probably makes a difference also. He may not be finished developing either. Coming to you from the great Northwest
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 17, 2015 15:54:11 GMT -5
6'1 190 looks more accurate for sure based on the video we've seen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2015 5:56:45 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 14, 2015 12:50:38 GMT -5
You're probably right about him making Salem but if he's the prospect many think and hope he is he will make Salem by about mid year... Age be damned
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 14, 2015 13:55:00 GMT -5
You're probably right about him making Salem but if he's the prospect many think and hope he is he will make Salem by about mid year... Age be damned I really disagree. For reference, here is a probably mostly accurate list of the youngest players who (probably*) ended the season in High A in 2015, sorted by birthday: (* - I used the current rosters on the teams' MILB.com pages, which is a bit problematic at this point given player movement - the better way to do this would probably have been to use B-Ref's team pages) Junior Fernandez (P-STL), 3/2/97 Gleyber Torres (SS-CHC), 12/13/96 Ruben Castro (C-HOU), 7/10/96 Bobby Bradley (1B-CLE), 5/29/96 Alex Verdugo (OF-LAD), 5/15/96 Enrique Chavez (P-HOU), 4/13/96 Spencer Adams (P-CWS), 4/13/96 Rayder Ascanio (P-SEA), 3/17/96 Franklin Barreto (SS-OAK), 2/27/96 Fernandez had a call-up similar to Espinoza's, pitching in two games and throwing 6 2/3 in Palm Beach after pitching in the GCL. One wonders if the reason he skipped right to the FSL is that Palm Beach is 30 minutes south of the STL complex. Torres had a seven-game, 23 at-bat call-up to Myrtle Beach. Castro played in 32 games all year, 13 in High A and 19 at the complex. No clue what his deal is. Bradley played in 2 games at High A after spending the year in the SAL. Verdugo is probably the oldest player who got a legit call-up to High A, 96 PA in 23 games after getting called up in mid-August. Chavez pitched in 3 games at the level, 6 2/3 innings, after pitching in the DSL and GCL. Adams made five starts in Winston-Salem after a mid-August call-up, so he's comparable to Verdugo. Ascanio was in Bakersfield from June 2 onward. Barreto played the entire season in Stockton, so he started the year as the youngest at the level. Now, Espinoza's birthday is 3/9/98, so to compare, you'd pretend it's 3/9/97. So if our "time displaced" Espinoza had been called up to High A this year, he'd have been the youngest player to play at the level by a few days, and if it happened mid-season as you postulate, he'd have been by far the youngest player to see significant time at the level, by about 9 to 11 or 12 months depending on how you want to define it. My point here: Espinoza can still be a top 25 or higher prospect if he spends the entire season in Greenville. He's going to be incredibly young for that level, never mind the next one.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 14, 2015 14:00:39 GMT -5
You're probably right about him making Salem but if he's the prospect many think and hope he is he will make Salem by about mid year... Age be damned If he goes Greenville/Salem 50/50 this year & Portland/Paw 50/50 next year, wouldn't that put him in MLB by age 19 or 20?....I can only think of Dwight Gooden to make it that fast. I know there has been a few others. Maybe Porcello, Fernandez, not sure of who else. Won't be unheard of. I do believe the Sox won't rush this kid. 5 or 6 years of control will start when he's 19 or 22, won't matter. They just want the best 6 years they can control. The only way they push him through is if he absolutely dominates every level.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 14, 2015 14:27:45 GMT -5
You're probably right about him making Salem but if he's the prospect many think and hope he is he will make Salem by about mid year... Age be damned I really disagree. For reference, here is a probably mostly accurate list of the youngest players who (probably*) ended the season in High A in 2015, sorted by birthday: (* - I used the current rosters on the teams' MILB.com pages, which is a bit problematic at this point given player movement - the better way to do this would probably have been to use B-Ref's team pages) Junior Fernandez (P-STL), 3/2/97 Gleyber Torres (SS-CHC), 12/13/96 Ruben Castro (C-HOU), 7/10/96 Bobby Bradley (1B-CLE), 5/29/96 Alex Verdugo (OF-LAD), 5/15/96 Enrique Chavez (P-HOU), 4/13/96 Spencer Adams (P-CWS), 4/13/96 Rayder Ascanio (P-SEA), 3/17/96 Franklin Barreto (SS-OAK), 2/27/96 Fernandez had a call-up similar to Espinoza's, pitching in two games and throwing 6 2/3 in Palm Beach after pitching in the GCL. One wonders if the reason he skipped right to the FSL is that Palm Beach is 30 minutes south of the STL complex. Torres had a seven-game, 23 at-bat call-up to Myrtle Beach. Castro played in 32 games all year, 13 in High A and 19 at the complex. No clue what his deal is. Bradley played in 2 games at High A after spending the year in the SAL. Verdugo is probably the oldest player who got a legit call-up to High A, 96 PA in 23 games after getting called up in mid-August. Chavez pitched in 3 games at the level, 6 2/3 innings, after pitching in the DSL and GCL. Adams made five starts in Winston-Salem after a mid-August call-up, so he's comparable to Verdugo. Ascanio was in Bakersfield from June 2 onward. Barreto played the entire season in Stockton, so he started the year as the youngest at the level. Now, Espinoza's birthday is 3/9/98, so to compare, you'd pretend it's 3/9/97. So if our "time displaced" Espinoza had been called up to High A this year, he'd have been the youngest player to play at the level by a few days, and if it happened mid-season as you postulate, he'd have been by far the youngest player to see significant time at the level, by about 9 to 11 or 12 months depending on how you want to define it. My point here: Espinoza can still be a top 25 or higher prospect if he spends the entire season in Greenville. He's going to be incredibly young for that level, never mind the next one. I believe the STL Cardinals have both their GCL & FSL teams in the same stadium/complex (Jupiter)....It would have made some sense though by staying in the same stadium setting & simply putting on a different uniform. By doing this though he skips 2 levels.
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