SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 26, 2015 15:41:31 GMT -5
Btw, how on earth does E Rod's FB get a "present 60"? Seriously? Without checking, I'd guess command. It's not all about mph Could be. It's certainly not movement: www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-change-average-movement-for-each-pitch-type/Given his very, very low walk rate and excellent AA/AAA results, though, I think putting a 60 on a FB from a LH starter who routinely hits 98 and works 94-96 is a pretty tough undersell, especially when "average" for an MLB lefty is less than 91. He'd have to have pretty marginal command to justify labeling a FB almost 5 mph better than a "50" as a "60." Fwiw, Aro might have just a slightly better-than-avg FB as a righty, but his delivery looks like it has some deception to it. Not great results last night, but I'd love to see the Sox give him an extended look. The team is going nowhere and the 'pen is basically Koji, Taz, and a mishmash. Call me crazy, but I'm looking forward to a major clean-out and seeing guys like Aro, Light, and maybe Williams Jerez (?!) getting some MLB experience.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jun 26, 2015 15:54:27 GMT -5
I'd love to see the Sox give him an extended look. The team is going nowhere and the 'pen is basically Koji, Taz, and a mishmash. Call me crazy, but I'm looking forward to a major clean-out and seeing guys like Aro, Light, and maybe Williams Jerez (?!) getting some MLB experience. Layne also looks to be here to stay for a while. Anyway, "extended looks" sounds good ... starting with Barnes and Hinojosa.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 26, 2015 16:05:03 GMT -5
who routinely hits 98 and works 94-96 This is a little generous. PITCHf/x has him averaging 93.6 with a high of 97.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 26, 2015 23:06:31 GMT -5
I'd love to see the Sox give him an extended look. The team is going nowhere and the 'pen is basically Koji, Taz, and a mishmash. Call me crazy, but I'm looking forward to a major clean-out and seeing guys like Aro, Light, and maybe Williams Jerez (?!) getting some MLB experience. Layne also looks to be here to stay for a while. Anyway, "extended looks" sounds good ... starting with Barnes and Hinojosa. I'm pretty disappointed with Barnes...and he's struggled in AAA too. Could just be a level-jump hiccup but after looking pretty solid last Sept this spring was a step back. He really needs to command the FB well unless he suddenly turns either CB or CH to a true plus pitch that he can locate. Even then, I wonder about a big arm who would need to pitch backwards. Def agree on Hinojosa. He gets swings and misses and throws relatively hard, but the BB rate is concerning. Still, I'm not sure he's really going to get much more out of AAA. Hembree is another guy who needs an extended look. He's been terrific at Pawtucket, and pitched OK in a couple MLB games, but got shelled his first outing. Idk what they have in him, but he doesn't have a whole lot more to prove in the minors. Bummer to see Celestino take a step back. And Kyle Martin's injury is a downer. But at some point, with all of these arms, you'd think at least one guy would step up. Seems like a lot of teams have had some luck with that (Royals, Yanks, O's), but the Sox have really struggled the past 2-3 years to develop late-inning relievers. Thank God for Taz.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 26, 2015 23:22:46 GMT -5
who routinely hits 98 and works 94-96 This is a little generous. PITCHf/x has him averaging 93.6 with a high of 97. I was going off of this: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/a-few-notes-on-eduardo-rodriguezs-velocity/They made a note about PITCH/fx in here having him "low" at 93.4, so I'm not sure what to make of it unless his hard change is being tallied as a "slow" (89-90 mph) FB at times. Fwiw, watching a game he's pretty routinely 94-96, with some 93s in there. This had him at 94 avg: www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-change-average-movement-for-each-pitch-type/ I still think his true FB velocity is being suppressed by the hard change and mis-tallied pitches. Regardless, he's top-5 in baseball for a LH starter. I'm not going to quibble over 1 mph, it doesn't change my thinking that he has a plus-plus LH FB. I'm actually curious to see PITCH/fx data on Johnson when he comes up. And, for that matter, Aro, who, if he can command the FB and SL the way he did in the minors, could be a find. Weird aside, apparently Aro signed late due to two hospitalizations for dengue fever, which I studied for my thesis. It's very rare for people to get severe infections, but immunity actually makes it more likely, meaning he should probably stay away from winter ball and move to the US for good (half tongue-in-cheek).
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 26, 2015 23:39:06 GMT -5
I don't want to get too off-topic, but that linked article is only based off his first start. The added adrenaline probably contributed to him throwing a little harder in that first outing; his velo has declined a bit since then, and it's probably not mischaracterization since his FB and his changeup look pretty distinct (see, e.g., here). You aren't comparing apples to apples if you're citing his NESN velocity (broadcast/stadium guns generally run hot). Per PITCHf/x, Aro averaged 92.8 and topped out at 94.2 in his first outing. So good, but not great velo, and just a touch higher than his scouting report (which has him 91-93, topping out at 95).
|
|
|
Post by raftsox on Jun 27, 2015 7:17:25 GMT -5
I'm one of those people that thinks all your relievers should be home grown. Draft a 70 fastball with a fringy second pitch and let 'em go. Those types of players only have so many bullets to shoot (Bard), so you may as well use them where it counts. Pay them minimum wage and sell at the deadline when they get expensive. Just draft a guy with a 70 fastball, he says... Yeah. Lots of fringy guys out there throwing mid 90s. That includes funky deliveries or injury concerns. Longevity isn't a concern with relievers.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 27, 2015 7:35:32 GMT -5
Just draft a guy with a 70 fastball, he says... Yeah. Lots of fringy guys out there throwing mid 90s. That includes funky deliveries or injury concerns. Longevity isn't a concern with relievers. Takes a lot more than throwing mid 90s to have a fastball that is graded at 70. Any major league hitter can pound a mid 90s fastball if its not located well and if there aren't any offspeed pitches to worry about.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2015 9:24:49 GMT -5
Just draft a guy with a 70 fastball, he says... Yeah. Lots of fringy guys out there throwing mid 90s. That includes funky deliveries or injury concerns. Longevity isn't a concern with relievers. A 70 fastball means a guy's average FB velo is 95. It may seem like there are lots of guys in that range, but there really aren't. Per PITCHf/x, there are only 22 qualified relievers in all of baseball whose fastball velo is 95+, and only 42 who are 94+. The only Red Sox prospects in recent history who have legitimately been in that range are Pat Light and Frank Montas (Kopech probably would as a reliever). These guys don't grow on trees, is what I'm saying. You usually have to pick them early in the draft, since guys with that kind of arm speed will seduce scouting directors with their upside. Light is a good example of this-- he was almost universally projected to be a reliever-only kind of guy and was very raw for a college guy, but still went 37th overall. Or think Kopech, who has a very funky delivery, but mostly because of his velo, went 33rd overall. You're not getting those guys later than the first few rounds. The other route is to hope some of your projectable international signings end up developing that sort of velo (think Montas, Mercedes (who is a tick below, but has touched that range before and might do so again), Roman Mendez), but that's playing the lottery.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2015 12:58:40 GMT -5
70 is a tough grade to get in any skill set, period. I always go right to the grades in any pre=draft scouting to see if anyone has any 65 or better grades for present skills. 70s are rare.
|
|
|