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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 3, 2012 8:25:10 GMT -5
After reading all the above interesting, thoughtful dialog which honestly strained my mental capacities, I come back to the same conclusion. Hamilton, however talented, however undervalued, however well he hits good, bad or indifferent pitching, however exciting and damaging he would be in Fenway, is not going to play for the 2013 version of the Red Sox, plain and simple. The Sox are not going to take a long term gamble on this type of player ( and damned few, if any, others) And goodness, he is not going to sign a 3 year contract.. He has the cred and at his age, players press for the big one.Someone will find his bauble too dazzling to resist. Boston has its Foster Grants in place.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 3, 2012 9:39:48 GMT -5
...What you are stating here is known information and hence should be reflected in the ultimate market value of the players. This could cause the assumption that Napoli and Swisher could be had for the same amount or less than Hamiltion to be violated. ... I like your overview of risk, but please don't throw the efficient market hypothesis into this discussion. I'm not going to start in with what's wrong with it here. There are just too many counter examples in baseball and elsewhere for it to be more than a convenient fiction. And after what happened on Wall Street it's become a dangerous fiction.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 3, 2012 10:12:04 GMT -5
Its possible that we'll know of Hamilton's final destination by Thursday. He's at the hotel in Nashville where the GMs are getting together. I'd imagine he's meeting with interested clubs to allay any fears about his character and health.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 3, 2012 10:30:28 GMT -5
And it seems like the market is saying he won't get more than 5 years -- and the Sox are in on him per the ever-reliable Bowden.
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Post by lasershow07 on Dec 3, 2012 23:29:03 GMT -5
Ellsbury Pedroia Hamilton Napoli Ortiz Middlebrooks Gomes/Kalish Ross/Lavarnway Iglesias
I have to say, I really like that line up.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 3, 2012 23:42:17 GMT -5
Ellsbury Pedroia Hamilton Napoli Ortiz Middlebrooks Gomes/Kalish Ross/Lavarnway Iglesias I have to say, I really like that line up. Doubt it's happening, but it's certainly better than: Ellsbury Pedroia Ortiz Napoli Middlebrooks Gomes Victorino Ross/Lavarnway Iglesias And at this point, I would think the Sox would be too RH to bring back Ross, and even though Swisher is a good player, I'd be scared of his RF defense, and would hate surrendering a 2nd round pick to the Yankees. Why help them?
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Post by elguapo on Dec 4, 2012 0:49:18 GMT -5
even though Swisher is a good player, I'd be scared of his RF defense, and would hate surrendering a 2nd round pick to the Yankees. Why help them? The Yankees wouldn't get the pick of the team that signs Swisher -- they're getting a comp pick as long as Swisher signs somewhere, so it doesn't matter if it's us or another team. Though we would lose our pick, which would be a bummer. I'm okay with Hamilton at 5x25. We have enough places to put him over that time, RF-LF-DH, as necessary, and I think the budget is still highly flexible as long as we commit to young talent at other positions.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 4, 2012 6:34:22 GMT -5
Thanks for the correction. I had thought the Yanks would get the 7th pick of the 2nd round, but apparently that isn't the case anymore. Sounds like the team normally picking 8th would move up a spot?
Still, if the Sox are to surrender a draft pick, I'd rather lose it for Hamilton and not Swisher, although I'd be hesitant about giving him 5 years. I think I could deal with 4. I doubt the Sox go more than 2, and I think we'll wind up with Victorino in RF, and that prospect doesn't make me too happy as I think he's a player in marked decline already.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 4, 2012 12:12:31 GMT -5
Josh Hamilton realistic FA Market looks like Rangers or Red Sox with Yankees a dark horse...doubtful Hamilton goes to SEA even if best offer-JIM BOWDEN
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 4, 2012 14:17:41 GMT -5
Ellsbury Pedroia Hamilton Napoli Ortiz Middlebrooks Gomes/Kalish Ross/Lavarnway Iglesias I have to say, I really like that line up. Can't say I hate it... Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
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Post by thegoo13 on Dec 4, 2012 16:52:05 GMT -5
Ellsbury Pedroia Hamilton Napoli Ortiz Middlebrooks Gomes/Kalish Ross/Lavarnway Iglesias I have to say, I really like that line up. Can't say I hate it... Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards agreed. If 4 year deal that sounds really good.
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Post by lasershow07 on Dec 4, 2012 17:39:44 GMT -5
Ok.... What about:
Ellsbury CF Pedroia 2B Hamilton LF Napoli 1B Ortiz DH Middlebrooks 3B Victorino RF Ross/Lavarnway C Iglesias SS
An outfield of three left handers with Big Daddy Jonny Gomes taking his $5 million dollar bat off the bench for when Hamilton uh... gets hurt. Perfect!
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 4, 2012 19:26:03 GMT -5
Heyman on MLBN: Sox are still in play on Hamilton.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 4, 2012 19:33:42 GMT -5
[ Again, he's in his 30s and he's seen a ton of MLB pitching, and his approach if anything has gotten worse. Expecting that trend to reverse is the definition of wishful thinking. If anything the more likely outcome is that his approach continues to get worse. Just for a point of comparison, from ages 26-31 (his entire post-addict career), Josh Hamilton has a 620/263 K/BB ratio. During the same 26-31 period, Vlad Guerrero had a 401/370 K/BB ratio. Why on earth should Josh Hamilton have changed his approach after mashing pitching for an OPS north of 1100 from March through May, and being one of the best offensive players in the league between 2010 and 2012? I don't think it's necessarily that he can't change it - up until now, there has been no real reason for it. His talent is through the roof, but as mentioned, it is a high risk/high reward situation. With the financial flexibility the Red Sox have, it's worth the gamble. Plus, because of his known issues, you can potentially get him for 4/110, vs. the 8/200 deals other players of his caliber strike. So in any case, the risk is limited to 4-5 years. I agree with your first paragraph 100%. Talent aside tho, I can't imagine the Sox opting for this guy at 27.5 M/yr. It is not going to happen. I might give him 4 at 18M/yr. He has to accept a discount to the current Sox regime given his personal problems.
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Post by burythehammer on Dec 4, 2012 19:48:18 GMT -5
If they sign Hamilton it makes too much sense for them to trade Ellsbury for a starting pitcher, IMO.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 4, 2012 19:56:16 GMT -5
Heyman on MLBN: Sox are still in play on Hamilton. If that still happens you have to think an Ellsbury trade is all but certain, no?
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Post by bluechip on Dec 4, 2012 19:58:38 GMT -5
Heyman on MLBN: Sox are still in play on Hamilton. If that still happens you have to think an Ellsbury trade is all but certain, no? If that happens, an Ellsbury trade has already been agreed to.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 5, 2012 1:08:48 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheymancbs #redsox are "not focusing on" josh hamilton. (maybe josh should have stayed home.)
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Post by brentl on Dec 5, 2012 13:10:25 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheymancbs #redsox are "not focusing on" josh hamilton. (maybe josh should have stayed home.) Never been big on Heyman solid reporter but feel like his rumors an reports are wrong or only hald right more then right. Hes ok. I still think we will get Hamilton because Upton looks poised to be a Ranger with them making a strong push still an Want to spend the money on Greinke. Which puts us in the driver seat to land Hamilton for 4 years 100 mill an I love him for that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 5, 2012 13:51:10 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheymancbs #redsox are "not focusing on" josh hamilton. (maybe josh should have stayed home.) Never been big on Heyman solid reporter but feel like his rumors an reports are wrong or only hald right more then right. Hes ok. I still think we will get Hamilton because Upton looks poised to be a Ranger with them making a strong push still an Want to spend the money on Greinke. Which puts us in the driver seat to land Hamilton for 4 years 100 mill an I love him for that. I was thinking the same thing, but it occurs to me that they could still sign Hamilton to play LF (can't see him in CF much anymore) or maybe they surprise me and play him in CF. Upton would be in RF, moving Cruz to DH? Then they would have to move Mike Young to 1b? I'm sure they wish they could deal Young? The Sox aren't going to give Hamilton 4 years. No way. 3 perhaps, but if it gets down to 3, you might see other teams jump in.
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Post by bsout2 on Dec 5, 2012 13:59:06 GMT -5
Just because the Rangers are out if does not mean the market will dry up. Hamilton will sign for at least 4 years if not 5. There are plenty of teams out there that will emerge if Upton goes to Texas.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 5, 2012 14:06:24 GMT -5
Just because the Rangers are out if does not mean the market will dry up. Hamilton will sign for at least 4 years if not 5. There are plenty of teams out there that will emerge if Upton goes to Texas. Who though? The Yankees appear to be cash poor. The Dodgers have a full outfield (and would have trouble trading any of those players). Hamilton reportedly will not go to Seattle. San Deigo maybe since they supposedly have big money? Cleveland? The Braves? I guess the Phillies would be the most logistical alternative since they have no starting OFers as of right now. Edit: Spelling
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Post by brentl on Dec 5, 2012 14:24:42 GMT -5
Just because the Rangers are out if does not mean the market will dry up. Hamilton will sign for at least 4 years if not 5. There are plenty of teams out there that will emerge if Upton goes to Texas. Who though? The Yankees appear to be cash poor. The Dodgers have a full outfield (and would have trouble trading any of those players). Hamilton reportedly will not go to Seattle. San Deigo maybe since they supposedly have big money? Cleveland? The Braves? You are absolutely right who is left if the Rangers drop out? Us an mybe the Phillies. Cant see any one else. Mariners ya there deff interested but he doesnt want to play there. Mybe the Orioles but dont see it. Yanks cant be counted out but cant be counted on either. Upton to Rangers could hand us the keys to a nice new #4 hitter. You are absoultley right I guess the Phillies would be the most logistical alternative since they have no starting OFers as of right now. Edit: Spelling
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Post by brentl on Dec 5, 2012 14:26:44 GMT -5
Never been big on Heyman solid reporter but feel like his rumors an reports are wrong or only hald right more then right. Hes ok. I still think we will get Hamilton because Upton looks poised to be a Ranger with them making a strong push still an Want to spend the money on Greinke. Which puts us in the driver seat to land Hamilton for 4 years 100 mill an I love him for that. I was thinking the same thing, but it occurs to me that they could still sign Hamilton to play LF (can't see him in CF much anymore) or maybe they surprise me and play him in CF. Upton would be in RF, moving Cruz to DH? Then they would have to move Mike Young to 1b? I'm sure they wish they could deal Young? The Sox aren't going to give Hamilton 4 years. No way. 3 perhaps, but if it gets down to 3, you might see other teams jump in. Sox will go 4 IMO at 25 mill a year an not a year or dollar more. The market for him could dry up if Upton ends up in Texas an make it so he takes a shorter deal then 4 but I think he gets 4.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 5, 2012 15:31:15 GMT -5
I was thinking the same thing, but it occurs to me that they could still sign Hamilton to play LF (can't see him in CF much anymore) or maybe they surprise me and play him in CF. Upton would be in RF, moving Cruz to DH? Then they would have to move Mike Young to 1b? I'm sure they wish they could deal Young? The Sox aren't going to give Hamilton 4 years. No way. 3 perhaps, but if it gets down to 3, you might see other teams jump in. Sox will go 4 IMO at 25 mill a year an not a year or dollar more. The market for him could dry up if Upton ends up in Texas an make it so he takes a shorter deal then 4 but I think he gets 4. I'd make that offer, but I seriously doubt the Sox would. Doesn't seem to fit their MO.
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