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6/29-7/2 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Jun 29, 2015 7:44:47 GMT -5
6/29 Red Sox (RHP Clay Buchholz 5-6 3.68) @ Blue Jays (RHP R.A. Dickey 3-7 4.88) 7:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEI6/30 Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez 3-2 4.33) @ Blue Jays (RHP Marco Estrada 5-3 3.45) 4:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI7/1 Red Sox (RHP Rick Porcello 4-8 5.54) @ Blue Jays (LHP Mark Buehrle 8-4 3.81) 1:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEI7/2 Red Sox (LHP Wade Miley 7-7 4.38) @ Blue Jays (LHP Matt Boyd 0-1 5.40) 7:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEIMLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 29, 2015 7:55:27 GMT -5
Too bad things did not align to give us Miley vs. Buehrle, a 2 hour game would have been nice.
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Post by station13 on Jun 29, 2015 8:43:19 GMT -5
That would depends on if they could shut out the offense. I expect lots of runs score in this series.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 29, 2015 8:47:09 GMT -5
Buehrle is on pace for 209 innings this season. It would be his fifteenth straight 200 inning season. Felix Hernandez is the next closest with seven straight.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 29, 2015 9:02:53 GMT -5
Buehrle is on pace for 209 innings this season. It would be his fifteenth straight 200 inning season. Felix Hernandez is the next closest with seven straight. Ergo, every LHP without a blazing fastball will always throw 200 innings, right?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 29, 2015 9:10:53 GMT -5
From now until the early 2030's.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2015 10:48:57 GMT -5
I hope the Sox can limit home runs to 6.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 29, 2015 10:51:49 GMT -5
I hope the Sox can limit home runs to 6. For the series? I'll be happy if they can limit Edwin Encarnacion's home runs to six.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2015 10:54:44 GMT -5
I hope the Sox can limit home runs to 6. For the series? I'll be happy if they can limit Edwin Encarnacion's home runs to six. lol yeah. Uggh. Porcello needs to find his sinker again.
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Post by sox1fan on Jun 29, 2015 11:49:44 GMT -5
I am very concerned about this series, but I am relieved, as well. I believe the Sox could get annihilated in this series by the Jays. The Jays offense has had the Sox' number this season, so far. Of particular interest in this series:
1. How does Buchholz fair tonight? (This appears to be a winnable game, as Dickey can be hit) 2. How does Rodriguez bounce back not only from his last loss against the Orioles, but his next start against the Jays, which really tagged him last time out. I am anxious to see the adjustments he makes. This will go a long way towards establish his true potential, I think. 3. Can Porcello build on his last start? Can he find his sinker again and learn to trust the defense behind him? (a ground ball is better than a 3 run bomb, lol)
If the Sox get embarrassed in this series, however, I believe that the brass will finally have all the information necessary to throw in the towel on this season, and start rebuilding/retooling for next by identifying trade candidates and making the necessary moves.
Fascinating story line, this week.
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Post by sox1fan on Jun 29, 2015 11:56:40 GMT -5
Buehrle is on pace for 209 innings this season. It would be his fifteenth straight 200 inning season. Felix Hernandez is the next closest with seven straight. Buehrle is a very underrated pitcher, in my opinion. Sure, he isn't a Cy Young candidate, but he consistently eats innings and for the most part keeps you in many games. He also has staying power because he doesn't rely on power, but is actually a pitcher. We can only hope the Miley mirrors Buehrle in many ways, but Miley throws harder, so he has one up on him there.
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Post by sox1fan on Jun 29, 2015 12:02:45 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me why the Sox never made a major play for Donaldson? It doesn't seem like the Jays gave up very premium prospects for him, and he is an All-Star caliber 3B. Couldn't the Sox have gotten him and not signed Sandoval? I don't believe there is anyone who could make a case that Sandoval is a better 3B than Donaldson, can they? Seems like a major miss on the Sox part, particularly since they needed a 3B. Now, it's likely that the Jays aren't going to be able to afford him when he hits FA in a few years, but the Jays have most of his prime years under team control.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 29, 2015 12:08:15 GMT -5
The A's supposedly really wanted Barreto. Also, we don't know that the Red Sox didn't make a play.
I don't think Sandoval's mother would make the case the Sandoval is better than Donaldson. Nobody claimed at any point that Sandoval was better than Donaldson. But Donaldson wasn't a free agent - and if he were, he would've blown Sandoval's contract away.
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Post by Smittyw on Jun 29, 2015 12:20:12 GMT -5
Buehrle is on pace for 209 innings this season. It would be his fifteenth straight 200 inning season. Felix Hernandez is the next closest with seven straight. Buehrle is a very underrated pitcher, in my opinion. Sure, he isn't a Cy Young candidate, but he consistently eats innings and for the most part keeps you in many games. He also has staying power because he doesn't rely on power, but is actually a pitcher. We can only hope the Miley mirrors Buehrle in many ways, but Miley throws harder, so he has one up on him there. I always liked Buehrle and hoped we'd land him at some point. Talk about the definition of consistency.
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Post by sox1fan on Jun 29, 2015 12:33:07 GMT -5
The A's supposedly really wanted Barreto. Also, we don't know that the Red Sox didn't make a play. I don't think Sandoval's mother would make the case the Sandoval is better than Donaldson. Nobody claimed at any point that Sandoval was better than Donaldson. But Donaldson wasn't a free agent - and if he were, he would've blown Sandoval's contract away. Why do you think that no one in the media ever ran this ground? Particularly with the season that Donaldson has had to date, and the struggles of Sandoval (more defensively, as offensively, he seems to be nearing his career averages)?
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2015 12:36:58 GMT -5
The A's supposedly really wanted Barreto. Also, we don't know that the Red Sox didn't make a play. I don't think Sandoval's mother would make the case the Sandoval is better than Donaldson. Nobody claimed at any point that Sandoval was better than Donaldson. But Donaldson wasn't a free agent - and if he were, he would've blown Sandoval's contract away. Why do you think that no one in the media ever ran this ground? Particularly with the season that Donaldson has had to date, and the struggles of Sandoval (more defensively, as offensively, he seems to be nearing his career averages)? I'm sure Shaughnessy and/or Cafardo did it. But it's dumb to expect your team to simply trade for a specific player. It's not like going to a store and making a purchase. The majority of the teams in the league should have traded for Donaldson. The second guessing based on bad results is out of control. Signing Ramirez and Sandoval were pretty much universally liked and all of baseball expected the Red Sox to have the best hitting team in baseball. Because it didn't work out that way does not mean that the decisions were wrong at the time they were made.
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Post by raftsox on Jun 29, 2015 12:43:28 GMT -5
Too bad things did not align to give us Miley vs. Buehrle, a 2 hour game would have been nice. I was at a Wakefield vs. Burhrle game once. It seemed like it was over in 2 hours flat.
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Post by jmei on Jun 29, 2015 12:49:08 GMT -5
Signing Ramirez and Sandoval were pretty much universally liked This is definitely not true. There were plenty of folks questioning both contracts at the time they were signed.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 29, 2015 12:54:10 GMT -5
Why do you think that no one in the media ever ran this ground? Particularly with the season that Donaldson has had to date, and the struggles of Sandoval (more defensively, as offensively, he seems to be nearing his career averages)? I'm sure Shaughnessy and/or Cafardo did it. But it's dumb to expect your team to simply trade for a specific player. It's not like going to a store and making a purchase. The majority of the teams in the league should have traded for Donaldson. The second guessing based on bad results is out of control. Signing Ramirez and Sandoval were pretty much universally liked and all of baseball expected the Red Sox to have the best hitting team in baseball. Because it didn't work out that way does not mean that the decisions were wrong at the time they were made. Agreed on the trade thing. The A's and Beane are notorious for going after specific players. Because a trade happened doesn't mean all other 29 teams were contacted about that player, had a chance or the ability to trade for him, or even knew he was available. That said, I wouldn't say that the Sandoval signing was universally liked. Not by a long shot. Hanley's deal was questioned too. Agreed that the Sox were seen by some as potentially being one of the best lineups. The question was supposed to be the pitching. As for third base, I do agree with the general point: I don't think there was an obvious answer there. It's not like Headley was the right answer as he's been bad too - slightly worse than Sandoval using bWAR and slightly better using fWAR. Middlebrooks has also been comparable. And I don't think the money matters for this year, as I'm not sure there was anyone out there they would have paid money for if they had it that they couldn't because they signed Sandoval and Hanley. Does keeping Cespedes and maybe signing Lester instead of trading for Porcello look at that much better? It's not like that makes this a playoff team.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2015 13:21:44 GMT -5
Signing Ramirez and Sandoval were pretty much universally liked This is definitely not true. There were plenty of folks questioning both contracts at the time they were signed. Let me revise. Signing Ramirez and Sandoval made most people believe that they had the best lineup in baseball.
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Post by sox1fan on Jun 29, 2015 13:35:02 GMT -5
This is definitely not true. There were plenty of folks questioning both contracts at the time they were signed. Let me revise. Signing Ramirez and Sandoval made most people believe that they had the best lineup in baseball. I know that I was at least one of the fans who perhaps liked the players, but shook my head at the contract numbers. I was also very concerned about Sandoval's weight, and the baggage that Hanley brought. Having said that, I believed in my heart of hearts that Ramirez would be OK, as Ortiz was here, and Sandoval was one of those freaky players that were good in spite of their weight (see Wells, David). I also didn't believe that they had the best lineup in baseball because there were still many questions to be answered: 1. Would Pedroia return to the Pedey we know and love (seems to be a "yes" at this point) 2. Would Victorino stay healthy (LOL, in retrospect) 3. Would Ortiz continue to be ageless (well, he has 12 homers, but his average has been steadily impacted over the last several years) 4. Would Napoli rebound in a contract year (answer is a firm NO) 5. Would Bogey and Betts take those leaps they seemed to be primed for (with Bogey this seems to be a yes, but the jury is out with Betts) 6. How would they hit LHP as a group (well, this is obviously one of the key Achilles' heels this season) 7. What about Rusney, would he be an impact player this year? Were it not for Brock, this team would be even farther behind in the division. He continues to be a breath of fresh air, but he isn't an everyday player...he is subject to maddening slumps and is way too streaky for my taste.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2015 13:50:53 GMT -5
Let me revise. Signing Ramirez and Sandoval made most people believe that they had the best lineup in baseball. I know that I was at least one of the fans who perhaps liked the players, but shook my head at the contract numbers. I was also very concerned about Sandoval's weight, and the baggage that Hanley brought. Having said that, I believed in my heart of hearts that Ramirez would be OK, as Ortiz was here, and Sandoval was one of those freaky players that were good in spite of their weight (see Wells, David). I also didn't believe that they had the best lineup in baseball because there were still many questions to be answered: 1. Would Pedroia return to the Pedey we know and love (seems to be a "yes" at this point) 2. Would Victorino stay healthy (LOL, in retrospect) 3. Would Ortiz continue to be ageless (well, he has 12 homers, but his average has been steadily impacted over the last several years) 4. Would Napoli rebound in a contract year (answer is a firm NO) 5. Would Bogey and Betts take those leaps they seemed to be primed for (with Bogey this seems to be a yes, but the jury is out with Betts) 6. How would they hit LHP as a group (well, this is obviously one of the key Achilles' heels this season) 7. What about Rusney, would he be an impact player this year? Were it not for Brock, this team would be even farther behind in the division. He continues to be a breath of fresh air, but he isn't an everyday player...he is subject to maddening slumps and is way too streaky for my taste. You really think anyone questioned how they'd hit LHP before the season? No one was asking all those questions. They weren't counting on all of those things. They only needed one of Victorino, Castillo or Craig to hit. I missed that you think the jury is still out on Betts. No it's not. He's on pace for a ~5 fWAR season as a 22 year old.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 29, 2015 14:10:29 GMT -5
You really think anyone questioned how they'd hit LHP before the season? It's a pretty dumb question to ask even now. We have a lot of RHB. RHB do better against LHP. Baseball did not suddenly stop working the way it has for the past 100+ years. Season to date results are small sample size noise.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 29, 2015 14:59:42 GMT -5
So much attention and much writing has been focused on the alleged poor performance of Sandoval and Ramirez when they really are not the major problems with the team.
Both have had defensive problems. If you look at the fielding metrics, Sandoval is well below his historical averages. He had been an above average defender. He has not been that with the Sox so far. However, there is plenty of data to support a belief that he is likely to get better.
Ramirez is playing a position he never played before and he hasn't take to it very well. I think that wall injury made him even more tentative. Recently, he has been doing better. But he has been a really terrible defender.
So, it is fair to say that both players have not performed defensively as was expected - and to the levels a championship team needs. Sandoval is likely to improve. He never will be a Gold Glover, but he ought to be OK. Ramirez is an unknown.
At the plate, however, both are hitting almost exactly what they hit last year. Neither one is doing any worse than anyone had a right to expect. Now there is an anomaly in the fWAR calculations that maybe someone who knows a lot more than I do can explain because both have much lower batting WARs this year than last when their stats are remarkably comparable.
Their slash lines: Sandoval 2015 .275/.321/.414/.735 2014 .279/.324/.415/.739 Sandoval's HR rate is about the same as last year.
Ramirez: 2015 .283/.330/.482/.812 2014 .283/.369/.448/.817 Ramirez HR rate is ahead of last year's by a good margin.
So why are their hitting fWARS much lower?
In any case, we might have hoped, as I certainly did, that they would hit even better - and they might (assuming Ramirez isn't seriously hurt). Both have hit better this month than their averages.
However, is isn't fair to blame them for the team's hitting woes. The problems have been at C, 1B, RF, DH, and for a while in CF. However, the team's hitting June has been quite good, I think the best in the league. Betts, Bogaerts, Ramirez, Sandoval, Swihart and Pedroia all have hit very well. Ortiz has done better. De Aza has been a pleasant surprise. Bradley looks better.
So, with the exception of Napoli, the team's hitting has come around to closer to what many of us expected.
The pitching, however, remains a big problem.
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Post by jmei on Jun 29, 2015 15:06:05 GMT -5
fWARs are lower because of park effects. Fenway is a much friendlier home ballpark than SF and LA.
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