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Royals considering Myers-for-Lester trade
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 26, 2012 19:29:54 GMT -5
While the Royals are reluctant to deal him, it appears doing so could net either Shields or Lester, each of whom was an All-Star as recently as 2011. The problem: Both are expensive and on track to become free agents in two years. Both deals have been discussed, but neither appears close at the moment. Other players could be involved, but the basic framework would be Myers for one of the two pitchers. At this point, all sides — the Royals, Rays and Red Sox — remain hesitant. Read more here: www.kansascity.com/2012/11/26/3935685/royals-could-likely-land-front.html#storylink=cpy
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Post by bluechip on Nov 26, 2012 19:59:04 GMT -5
While the Royals are reluctant to deal him, it appears doing so could net either Shields or Lester, each of whom was an All-Star as recently as 2011. The problem: Both are expensive and on track to become free agents in two years. Both deals have been discussed, but neither appears close at the moment. Other players could be involved, but the basic framework would be Myers for one of the two pitchers. At this point, all sides — the Royals, Rays and Red Sox — remain hesitant. Read more here: www.kansascity.com/2012/11/26/3935685/royals-could-likely-land-front.html#storylink=cpyWhy would the Red Sox hesitate? Myers would solve the right field question for the next six years.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2012 20:05:37 GMT -5
Yes, yes, a million times yes. If all it takes is Lester to snag Wil Myers, I'd even pay Lester's salary for 2013 and absorb Bruce Chen's $4.5m deal. Myers strikes out more than I like but he might be the best power hitting prospect in the minors. I frankly disregarded those rumors because even Dayton Moore would be crazy to trade Myers for anything less than elite, cost-controlled starting pitching (which the Red Sox certainly lack), but if all it takes is Lester, it's a slam dunk.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2012 20:07:54 GMT -5
That said, this sounds too good to be true. Some other team will undoubtedly jump in with a better offer and no GM could be stupid enough to trade a top-5 prospect for a good but not great pitcher like Lester. Right?
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Post by bluechip on Nov 26, 2012 20:21:39 GMT -5
That said, this sounds too good to be true. Some other team will undoubtedly jump in with a better offer and no GM could be stupid enough to trade a top-5 prospect for a good but not great pitcher like Lester. Right? I could just see Ben and Lucchino's reaction if Moore actually called and made that offer
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 26, 2012 20:32:58 GMT -5
Priceless video clip!
I would absolutely love that trade. We'd be set for the next 10+ years in the middle of our line-up!
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Post by lasershow07 on Nov 26, 2012 20:53:07 GMT -5
Myers for Lester? Check please.
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Post by mainesox on Nov 26, 2012 21:03:38 GMT -5
I don't know that that trade is actually all that far off. Myers is obviously an elite prospect, but Lester is an established major league starter, and only one year removed from being considered among the best in the game.
Last year obviously did happen, and he's only under contract for two years and is getting more expensive (sort of - he's only getting $11.625M this year and $13M next), but do you think we could get Halladay for just Bogaerts? <~ Not a perfect example, but it's not too far off; Halladay was more elite more recently, but he also costs amost twice as much and is nearly 10 years older.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 26, 2012 21:12:29 GMT -5
That said, this sounds too good to be true. Some other team will undoubtedly jump in with a better offer and no GM could be stupid enough to trade a top-5 prospect for a good but not great pitcher like Lester. Right? It's Dayton Moore. I'm Keeping my fingers crossed.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 26, 2012 21:16:05 GMT -5
I just don't see any team dealing an ELITE cost controlled pitcher for Myers straight up. It seems illogical on the surface, but illogical GMs do illogical things when human factors like job security take over. He might figure the Royals have to become contenders in the next two seasons to keep his job, and if he's fired he won't be able to benefit from Wil's prime. They can't contend with that staff, and it's tough to sign FA's to come to KC without a big overpay. Shields and Lester really might be the best type of options he gets offered, and if he's dead set on upgrading...well...crazier things have happened. Or maybe I'm just trying to make myself believe there's a chance.
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Post by dewey1972 on Nov 26, 2012 21:20:46 GMT -5
I'm in general agreement that it would be a good trade for the Sox. However, I don't think it's quite as obvious as many. Lester got worse last year, but some of that was core skills (strikeouts, home runs) and some of that was stuff that often varies year to year (a spike in HR/FB rate, a significantly lower LOB%, a somewhat high BABIP). If he never turned into the true ace it looked like he would, he was still a very good pitcher for the four years before that.
And while Myers is a great prospect, he's still a prospect. He's not Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, breaking into the majors at 19 after having great success while being the youngest player at each level. He'll be 22 next year, and while he had a great year last year, his insane numbers at AA turned into very good ones at AAA. Both of his home parks were home run friendly according to StatCorner. And his AA numbers were helped by a .425 BABIP, while he managed his AAA numbers with a .349 BABIP. He's clearly hit very well in the minors, but let's remember that Delmon Young was BA's #3 prospect for 3 years and it's #1 prospect for another. With the exception of walking less, he hit in the minors about as well as Myers, and at younger ages. Would you trade Lester at this moment for the first six years of Delmon Young's career?
Again, I'm not saying it wouldn't be a good trade. But I think there are also reasons for not doing it.
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Post by bighead on Nov 26, 2012 21:23:18 GMT -5
I don't know that that trade is actually all that far off. Myers is obviously an elite prospect, but Lester is an established major league starter, and only one year removed from being considered among the best in the game. Last year obviously did happen, and he's only under contract for two years and is getting more expensive (sort of - he's only getting $11.625M this year and $13M next), but do you think we could get Halladay for just Bogaerts? <~ Not a perfect example, but it's not too far off; Halladay was more elite more recently, but he also costs amost twice as much and is nearly 10 years older. I completely agree. Lester had a down season and month of the prior season. The first real full season, 2008, through the end of this last season he is 9th in cumulative WAR. He's also 12th in Ks over that same time and is still not even 29 years old. I'm actually hesitant because we know what Lester is while Myers at the end of the day is still projection. It does amaze me how easily people have written him off. Shields IMO is not in Lester's class by a long shot. Still I think you make the deal. My problem is that the Sox are already short of established starters so we'd be dealing from a weakness. How do they not only replace Lester but also strengthen the rotation? Also, making this trade would mean the Sox are rebuilding and not retooling. Something to consider.
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Post by mainesox on Nov 26, 2012 21:48:05 GMT -5
Right, I still think it's a good trade for the Red Sox, I just don't think it's the ridiculous, slam-dunk win that others seem to be suggesting.
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Post by buffs4444 on Nov 26, 2012 21:57:44 GMT -5
While the Royals are reluctant to deal him, it appears doing so could net either Shields or Lester, each of whom was an All-Star as recently as 2011. The problem: Both are expensive and on track to become free agents in two years. Both deals have been discussed No sense on signing Napoli or Swisher if they're punting 2013.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 26, 2012 22:03:20 GMT -5
I'm in general agreement that it would be a good trade for the Sox. However, I don't think it's quite as obvious as many. Lester got worse last year, but some of that was core skills (strikeouts, home runs) and some of that was stuff that often varies year to year (a spike in HR/FB rate, a significantly lower LOB%, a somewhat high BABIP). If he never turned into the true ace it looked like he would, he was still a very good pitcher for the four years before that. And while Myers is a great prospect, he's still a prospect. He's not Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, breaking into the majors at 19 after having great success while being the youngest player at each level. He'll be 22 next year, and while he had a great year last year, his insane numbers at AA turned into very good ones at AAA. Both of his home parks were home run friendly according to StatCorner. And his AA numbers were helped by a .425 BABIP, while he managed his AAA numbers with a .349 BABIP. Again, I'm not saying it wouldn't be a good trade. But I think there are also reasons for not doing it. I, too, am always hesitant to trade for their unproven minor leaguer with our established left-handed starter, especially one who, despite his down year, over the last 3 years has been the 11th best pitcher in baseball (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0). I would feel a little better about the deal if they turned around and grabbed the 12th best pitcher in baseball over the same period of time (Grienke). Even if they gave him 20M a year it would only be a net increase of a little over $8M (if you figure Myers is MLB min) and $7M for the next two years. In the third year it goes up to $20M, but if Lackey is still with the team in 2015, he is at MLB min, so the net would drop down to $4.75M. all other things being equal - which they aren't but one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is that they have $90M of wiggle room so they can afford Grienke whether they trade Lester or not.
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Post by jdb on Nov 26, 2012 22:09:39 GMT -5
www.weei.com/sports/boston/this-just-in/21243226/red-sox-royals-discussed-lester-dealAccording to a major league source, the Red Sox have discussed a deal that would include sending Jon Lester to Kansas City, with the Royals' top prospect, outfielder Wil Myers, potentially going to Boston. Also discussed was the possibility of sending outfield help to the Royals, with pitching going back to the Sox. Any such deal wasn't classified as being close, with the Royals also looking into acquiring Tampa Bay starter James Shields in a separate package of players.
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Post by lowellspinnersfan on Nov 26, 2012 22:21:55 GMT -5
Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reports that the Royals have had discussions about trading top prospect Wil Myers for either James Shields or Jon Lester.
The Royals have already added Ervin Santana via trade this offseason from the Angels and recently signed Jeremy Guthrie to a three-year contract, but they want a true front-line starter and are apparently willing to deal one of the most promising young hitters in the game in order to acquire one. Myers, 21, batted .314/.387/.600 with 37 home runs and 109 RBI in 134 games this past season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels.
Source: Kansas City Star ---------------------------------- "A Red Sox source confirmed to WEEI's Rob Bradford that the two teams have indeed discusseda trade that would center around Lester and Myers. According to Bradford, the talks also included the possibility of Boston sending outfield help to Kansas City with some pitching heading back to the Red Sox. He echoes that nothing is close."
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 26, 2012 22:31:37 GMT -5
All I want for Christmas is this trade.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 26, 2012 22:32:25 GMT -5
I would do it in a heart beat! Love Myers' tools. Impact bat for years under control for, at least, 6 years.
Imagine a future with Xander and Will Myers in our 3 and 4 spot for many years!!
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2012 22:44:01 GMT -5
Lester's fastball velocity has declined three years in a row (93.5 - 92.6 - 92), which has paralleled the decline in his strikeout rate (26.1% - 22.8% - 19%). His ground ball rate has also declined three years in a row and his HR/FB rate has increased three years in a row. The pitch values on his cutter have declined three years in a row from an elite pitch to a below-average one. His contact rates have increased four years in a row and his zone% has declined four years in a row. Yes, he wasn't as bad as his ERA in 2012, but it's been two years since he was truly top-tier and all the indicators are going in the wrong direction.
Myers is a prospect, yes, but a consensus top-5 prospect who has been in that top echelon of prospects for three years now and is less than a year from the major leagues. Yes, he's not a sure thing, but he's as close to one as any prospect can really ever be. Top prospects do bust semi-regularly (Jesus Montero was BA's #4 prospect in 2010, Travis Snider was #9 in 2009, Franklin Morales was #8 in 2008, etc.), but those are the exceptions and the vast majority of MLB top-5 prospects become at least starter-level players and many become stars. The cautionary tale of Delmon Young is great and all, but Myers walks two to three times what Young ever did (majors or minors) and hits for more power. Myers does strike out quite a bit and won't hit .300 in the majors, but compensates for it with elite power (career .218 ISO) and a good line-drive stroke.
What it comes down to for me is that teams don't trade truly elite prospects anymore because they recognize the value that comes with a high-ceiling, cost-controlled studs, especially in the case of position players. If many posters are comfortable with trading Ellsbury one year before free agency, than trading Lester two years before free agency should be on the table if the return is good enough. Clearly, this is by far the best deal out there if Lester was shopped around, and should be pounced on if legitimate.
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 26, 2012 22:45:08 GMT -5
If a deal like this really does come up, it's a big opportunity for the ownership to really show where they want this team headed. The long term, likely better baseball move would be to grab Myers. But I don't think the general Redsox fans would buy into it right away. Now to most ppl on this site, that's irrelevant, and I agree. But I'm not 100% sure that the ownership would be willing to do that at potentially getting rid of a general fan favorite in Lester/Buchholz for a guy that might not be in your starting lineup on day 1, but probably would be by the AS break. He definitely could start in the majors right away, but a few months in AAA could probably benefit him, based on his vast improvement from his 1st to 2nd year in AA, after getting about the same amount of AB's in his 1st year in AA as his 1st year in AAA
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Post by psusox14 on Nov 26, 2012 22:45:14 GMT -5
Aahhhhhhhh!!!!!!! It'll probably never happen but I'm gonna wish anyway!!! That would be awesome to have the X-Factor hitting next to Myers! Honestly I don't know too much about myers's tools. All I know is about the huge year he had this year in 3A, he used to be a catcher, that he's very athletic, and that he is possibly the #1 prospect in 'Merica right now. Anyone who knows details, please share!
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Post by bluechip on Nov 26, 2012 22:58:30 GMT -5
If a deal like this really does come up, it's a big opportunity for the ownership to really show where they want this team headed. The long term, likely better baseball move would be to grab Myers. But I don't think the general Redsox fans would buy into it right away. Now to most ppl on this site, that's irrelevant, and I agree. But I'm not 100% sure that the ownership would be willing to do that at potentially getting rid of a general fan favorite in Lester/Buchholz for a guy that might not be in your starting lineup on day 1, but probably would be by the AS break. He definitely could start in the majors right away, but a few months in AAA could probably benefit him, based on his vast improvement from his 1st to 2nd year in AA, after getting about the same amount of AB's in his 1st year in AA as his 1st year in AAA The average Boston fan would probably initially be against this trade. Nevertheless, the team's PR machine would immediately kick into gear. Within an hour of the trade the beat writers would be on WEEI and 98.5 talking about how Cherington has loved Myers since he was in high school, how Myers is nearly MLB ready, and how Lester is on his last legs. By the time the afternoon drive shows start, people would be calling in excited that the team did not repeat the mistakes of the past and is committed to young players. At the same time, if the team did trade away Lester, it would probably also sign a free agent to a big contract (maybe Mike Napoli for 4 years). Just to stop naysayers from saying John Henry is becoming Jeffry Loria.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2012 23:00:30 GMT -5
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 26, 2012 23:07:27 GMT -5
Making the playoffs and winning the WS is the only thing that gets the Sox fanbase back to where it was from 04-09. Now is the ownership willing to "bite the bullet" and make a move, even if it won't necessarily be a popular one to the average fans, and it might bring the team half a step back in year one to move 2 steps forward in years 3-10? The next 1-2 months will go a long way in seeing where the ownership stands
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