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Post by lasershow07 on Nov 26, 2012 23:43:55 GMT -5
The real question here is what in the world would lead Moore to think the Royals are one pitcher away from contention over the next two years?
Trading away the reigning minor league player of the year and top 5 (at least) prospect in the game is a tough pill to swallow, especially if the return you are expecting is either a guy who has seen his peripheral stats decline pretty steadily for four years, has battled significant mechanical issues and has lost the effectiveness of his best pitch or James Shields.
Why wouldn't the Royals start with Buchholz?
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Post by buffs4444 on Nov 27, 2012 0:00:00 GMT -5
2005 top non-pitching prospects: Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Ian Stewart, Joel Guzman, Casey Kotchman 2006 top non-pitching prospects: Delmon Young, Justin Upton, Brandon Wood, Jeremy Hermida, Stephen Drew 2007 top non-pitching prospects: Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, Cam Maybin, Evan Longoria, Brandon Wood
Better make sure you're burying the franchise for the next 2-3 years for Evan Longoria and not Jeremy Hermida. Pretty tough to tell the difference:
Prospect A: "Backed up his reputation as the draft's best pure hitter" Prospect B: "He's a hitter. That's a beautiful swing." "Everything he does is so easy. He has a 70 arm and he has one of the sweetest swings I've ever seen."
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Post by jmei on Nov 27, 2012 0:09:08 GMT -5
(1) Do you really think trading Jon Lester is "burying the franchise?" (2) If you don't like the risk, I guarantee you can flip Myers for a more established player who adds more value to the 2013-14 Red Sox than Lester likely would.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 27, 2012 0:49:51 GMT -5
Prospect projection is infallible. We can do endless misleading comparisons of similarly ranked prospects from past years to fit agendas. Let me try mine. One of the links Jmei provided was Baseball America labeling Myers 2012 Minor League Player of the Year. Since 1992, the following hitting prospects won this award:
Mike Trout Jason Heyward Matt Wieters Jay Bruce Alex Gordon Delmon Young Joe Mauer Rocco Baldelli Eric Chavez Paul Konerko Andruw Jones Derek Jeter Manny Ramirez Tim Salmon
All BA POY award winners aren't created equal, and it doesn't grant super powers. The point here is to illustrate how high end this prospect is. We can find Andy Marte's or Delmon Young's to show even elite prospects can completely bust, but it's very rare for this type of player. Delmon is the only player to really bust from this group, two if you want to count Baldelli's unfortunate condition. The rest of that group is made up of a mix of impact players, Alex Gordon is on the very low end of this group. This is a flawed sample in isolation, but still, spin the wheel for a chance at the six years of a cost controlled All-Star bat.
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Post by theolearyfactor on Nov 27, 2012 1:03:51 GMT -5
I'm not sure of how likely it is that the Royals would trade Myers, but it would hurt twice as much if the offensively starved Rays got him instead of the Sox.
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Post by marrcus on Nov 27, 2012 1:54:17 GMT -5
Why wouldn't the Royals start with Buchholz? ----------------------------------------------------------------- His health issues maybe? The weight loss? Durability questions?
Maybe the FO was more upset than they have let on with Lester. Are they not convinced he will be in shape in the spring? My guess is that FO would have to expect WMB-type production at minimum to make this deal. Since I have no idea about his fielding prowess it's hard to judge but it just doesn't seem like this po' trade would go down without being expanded.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 27, 2012 2:48:06 GMT -5
I'm not sure of how likely it is that the Royals would trade Myers, but it would hurt twice as much if the offensively starved Rays got him instead of the Sox. That was my first thought also. Given the amount of pitching they've stockpiled the Rays could replace Shields. On the other hand the offense has been brutal and they don't have anyone of Myers' calibre in the minors.
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Post by elguapo on Nov 27, 2012 3:29:28 GMT -5
Maybe we should have drafted Myers in the first place?
Lester should retire with the Sox. (Eventually, not immediately.)
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 27, 2012 4:00:08 GMT -5
We have to get all over this. This would give us an amazing 3, 4 punch for the next decade.
Another thing to pray for!
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 27, 2012 6:57:59 GMT -5
Is the Option Year in Lesters' Contract (2014) voided if he is traded? Possibly making him a free agent after only 1 year if traded for?
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Post by benfromma on Nov 27, 2012 7:31:59 GMT -5
What the fans forget is that this building process even if we sign enough players to compete in 2013 we won't win it. If we get a Myers and prospects like Boegarts, Bradley, Brentz, Barnes,Webster, and others come through we can then fill some needs in free agency and not have salary concerns. We also will not be talking about the Nava and Gomes except as small role players.
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Post by bighead on Nov 27, 2012 8:38:06 GMT -5
Lester's fastball velocity has declined three years in a row (93.5 - 92.6 - 92), which has paralleled the decline in his strikeout rate (26.1% - 22.8% - 19%). His ground ball rate has also declined three years in a row and his HR/FB rate has increased three years in a row. The pitch values on his cutter have declined three years in a row from an elite pitch to a below-average one. His contact rates have increased four years in a row and his zone% has declined four years in a row. Yes, he wasn't as bad as his ERA in 2012, but it's been two years since he was truly top-tier and all the indicators are going in the wrong direction. Myers is a prospect, yes, but a consensus top-5 prospect who has been in that top echelon of prospects for three years now and is less than a year from the major leagues. Yes, he's not a sure thing, but he's as close to one as any prospect can really ever be. Top prospects do bust semi-regularly (Jesus Montero was BA's #4 prospect in 2010, Travis Snider was #9 in 2009, Franklin Morales was #8 in 2008, etc.), but those are the exceptions and the vast majority of MLB top-5 prospects become at least starter-level players and many become stars. The cautionary tale of Delmon Young is great and all, but Myers walks two to three times what Young ever did (majors or minors) and hits for more power. Myers does strike out quite a bit and won't hit .300 in the majors, but compensates for it with elite power (career .218 ISO) and a good line-drive stroke. What it comes down to for me is that teams don't trade truly elite prospects anymore because they recognize the value that comes with a high-ceiling, cost-controlled studs, especially in the case of position players. If many posters are comfortable with trading Ellsbury one year before free agency, than trading Lester two years before free agency should be on the table if the return is good enough. Clearly, this is by far the best deal out there if Lester was shopped around, and should be pounced on if legitimate. Its hard to argue with stats and these are the things that a fan like myself may be in denial about. Holding out hope he can right the ship with a good offseason conditioning program and working with a pitching coach with a fresh perspective. While that could happen it does seem that Lester's psyche may be a problem as he seemed flat out distraught and defeated at the end of last season. Despite one poster mentioning him as a fan favorite,that sentiment appeared to be changing to him being portrayed as a Beckett type malcontent last year. Maybe a change of scenery is necessary for him too. You are correct in that it seems middle of the order bats are the more the commodity than ever. Change of dynamic from PED testing where starting pitchers were the more valued asset? Another top prospect that has been a bust relative to his ranking/projection to this point: Smoak.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 27, 2012 8:44:48 GMT -5
Maybe we should have drafted Myers in the first place? Lester should retire with the Sox. (Eventually, not immediately.) We did! Couldn't get him to sign coming out of HS.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 27, 2012 8:45:47 GMT -5
Is the Option Year in Lesters' Contract (2014) voided if he is traded? Possibly making him a free agent after only 1 year if traded for? I believe Lester's option is voided if he finishes first or second in the Cy Young voting.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 27, 2012 8:54:33 GMT -5
The real question here is what in the world would lead Moore to think the Royals are one pitcher away from contention over the next two years? I'm guessing it's that magic phrase: "AL Central"
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Post by elguapo on Nov 27, 2012 9:13:07 GMT -5
Maybe we should have drafted Myers in the first place? Lester should retire with the Sox. (Eventually, not immediately.) We did! Couldn't get him to sign coming out of HS. Oh really? Myers was drafted and signed out of high school (Wesleyan, a local prep school). The Sox could have had Myers but refused to pay him over slot in the first round (or 2nd round). They were gung ho following the strategy of drafting cheap signs early and spreading money out to tough signs later (notably Renfroe, Head), with mixed success. Hindsight is 20-20, of course, but when you're too smart to draft the best player available, you invite second-guessing.
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Post by bacricher on Nov 27, 2012 9:13:40 GMT -5
---------------------------------- "A Red Sox source confirmed to WEEI's Rob Bradford that the two teams have indeed discusseda trade that would center around Lester and Myers. According to Bradford, the talks also included the possibility of Boston sending outfield help to Kansas City with some pitching heading back to the Red Sox. He echoes that nothing is close." [/quote]
Lester/Ellsbury/Cash/Roster filler for Myers/Hosmer/Salary relief (Chen)?
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Post by jioh on Nov 27, 2012 9:16:14 GMT -5
Delmon Young showed amazing power in A and AA at 18 and 19. But then: 19 walks in about 600 PAs in AAA. Will Meyers had 45 in 439 PAs in AAA. If you do the math, you can trade a P for a hitting prospect.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 27, 2012 9:36:27 GMT -5
Lester and Brentz for Myers and Odorizzi/Montgomery. Fair deal?
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 27, 2012 9:38:09 GMT -5
I have been all for trading Lester for the reasons a number of posters have cited above (decline in vel., strikeout rates, increase in walks, cutter loss of bite) and my perception that at his age he will probably never become a 7 or 8 inning pitcher. For me, his control is marginal for a top pitcher. A loss of velocity may mean more damage done when he misses within the zone
The fact that the Sox have seemingly had a 'spiritual' collapse, with or without BV and perhaps some insurrection (Lester deemed involved?), might be additional incentive to purge, send a message to those that remain and turn the page to a rebuilt future.
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Post by jdb on Nov 27, 2012 10:35:21 GMT -5
Lester and Brentz for Myers and Odorizzi/Montgomery. Fair deal? If Oddorizzi comes back I'm guessing some salary comes with him. Montgomery would be an interesting guy. This time last year he was their #2 prospect and has potential. Anyone know why he has fallen so much? www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-kansas-city-royals/2. Mike Montgomery, LHP BORN: July 1, 1989 EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons ACQUIRED: 2008 supplemental 1st round, California HS 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th There was some hope that Montgomery would already be anchored in the Royals’ starting rotation but injuries and ineffectiveness have slowed his ascent. The good news is that the left-hander was able to provide 150 innings of work at triple-A in 2011. The bad news is that he floated a high ERA for much of the year and eventually got it down to 5.32 (4.30 FIP). His walk rate was a career high at 4.12 BB/9 and he allowed more than nine hits per nine innings, also the highest of his time in pro ball. Despite his issues Montgomery has the makings of a No. 2 starter and his repertoire includes a low-90s fastball that can touch 95 mph, a potentially-plus changeup and a developing curveball. Although there have been no direct correlations, Montgomery hasn’t been as sharp since he suffered a strained forearm in 2010 and missed almost two months. If he truly is back on solid ground in 2012 Montgomery should not need much more seasoning in the minors and could be up for good by midseason.
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Post by remember04 on Nov 27, 2012 11:04:45 GMT -5
---------------------------------- "A Red Sox source confirmed to WEEI's Rob Bradford that the two teams have indeed discusseda trade that would center around Lester and Myers. According to Bradford, the talks also included the possibility of Boston sending outfield help to Kansas City with some pitching heading back to the Red Sox. He echoes that nothing is close." Lester/Ellsbury/Cash/Roster filler for Myers/Hosmer/Salary relief (Chen)?[/quote] I'd do it but I'm not sure they would. It would net them two draft picks if either didn't sign though as I'm sure both would turn down respective qualifying offers. I see something more along the lines of Lester and Brentz for Myers and Chen making the most sense with some filler being added
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Post by remember04 on Nov 27, 2012 11:13:55 GMT -5
I can see why the Royals might do something like this. They've had trouble developing pitchers for a while with very few exceptions (Greinke) but they do well with their position players
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 27, 2012 11:46:13 GMT -5
There are some intriguing players on the Royals roster besides Myers. I'd be interested in Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer, so hopefully the trade can be expanded to include one of them.
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Post by raftsox on Nov 27, 2012 11:52:56 GMT -5
Lester and Brentz for Myers and Odorizzi/Montgomery. Fair deal? If Oddorizzi comes back I'm guessing some salary comes with him. Montgomery would be an interesting guy. This time last year he was their #2 prospect and has potential. Anyone know why he has fallen so much? www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-kansas-city-royals/2. Mike Montgomery, LHP BORN: July 1, 1989 EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons ACQUIRED: 2008 supplemental 1st round, California HS 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th There was some hope that Montgomery would already be anchored in the Royals’ starting rotation but injuries and ineffectiveness have slowed his ascent. The good news is that the left-hander was able to provide 150 innings of work at triple-A in 2011. The bad news is that he floated a high ERA for much of the year and eventually got it down to 5.32 (4.30 FIP). His walk rate was a career high at 4.12 BB/9 and he allowed more than nine hits per nine innings, also the highest of his time in pro ball. Despite his issues Montgomery has the makings of a No. 2 starter and his repertoire includes a low-90s fastball that can touch 95 mph, a potentially-plus changeup and a developing curveball. Although there have been no direct correlations, Montgomery hasn’t been as sharp since he suffered a strained forearm in 2010 and missed almost two months. If he truly is back on solid ground in 2012 Montgomery should not need much more seasoning in the minors and could be up for good by midseason. He's not that good anymore. Several years ago (in Wilmington, of all places) he threw 3 legitimate 70s (all of this is from a recent BA podcast). Now, his best pitch is a 55 fastball with 30 command. The Royals are pretty good at developing hitters, but not so good at developing pitchers. Getting Lester and losing Myers is a win-now move for them. There's no chance someone like Hosmer comes back; more likely the "pitching help" is someone like Duffy or Arguellas.
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