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Royals considering Myers-for-Lester trade
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 27, 2012 14:16:24 GMT -5
The only time in Lester's career he wasn't a teammate of Beckett's was the last six weeks. Why should he be blamed for his dropoff the past two years?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 27, 2012 14:30:20 GMT -5
Yeah can't blame Beckett here.
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Post by jmei on Nov 27, 2012 14:39:49 GMT -5
(1) Do you really think trading Jon Lester is "burying the franchise?" (2) If you don't like the risk, I guarantee you can flip Myers for a more established player who adds more value to the 2013-14 Red Sox than Lester likely would. 1) For the next 2-3 years, as I said, yes. I'm not sure what other message it would send to the team and to other FA's when you trade your homegrown top starter for a prospect 2-3 years away from contributing consistently. And if you're Napoli, Swisher, Hamilton, etc....why sign here if the team is raising that white flag? "Go to Texas, Baltimore, etc and compete, or sign with Boston and rebuild?" Not a tough call for 31-32 year old guys who want to win a championship. 2) I'd be stunned if Farrell was on board with that logic I think this "message to other free agents" business is a myth, especially when applied to a high-payroll team like Boston that clearly wants to be a perennial contender. First, money always matters, and with Lester's salary off the books, Boston has every ability to outbid any other team for a player it wants. Second, this is not a Marlins-esque fire sale. You're trading what you optimistically hope is a 3.75 ERA pitcher under team control for two years for the top hitting prospect in the game who also happens to be major league-ready. If the FO goes out and signs Anibal Sanchez or trades for Matt Garza, the team isn't much worse, if at all.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 27, 2012 14:51:08 GMT -5
Exactly. You sign Sanchez/Haren and have Myers. Thats probably 6-7 WAR there and you lost about 5 WAR with Lester (being generous there at that). We could still be just as good of a team next season if we traded Lester for Myers.
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Post by borisman on Nov 27, 2012 16:19:08 GMT -5
The sad part is the Red Sox liked this kid & I believe they would've drafted him if KC didn't. He got like $2M from them. We got Renfroe for $1.4M.
I'd do this trade in a minute. I think he'll have an impact right away and not take 2 or 3 years to blossom. We need a big bat now and then plug in X-man when Ortiz moves on. Signing Hamilton wouldn't hurt the middle of the order either.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 27, 2012 16:22:24 GMT -5
Sounds like Peter Abraham is NOT for it.....but I am sold. How often do you get a chance to pick up, arguably, the best positional player in the minors and you are the Red Sox? Not often. Everyone can come up with scenario after scenario about who flopped and who didn't make it. There are many guys who have been considered a "sure-thing" and didn't quite make it. But to "hit a home run" is huge for our future!
I've always liked Jon Lester, but it is quite possible that we may not ever extend him in 2 years for the outrageous money starters are getting currently. He really may not be worth it to give him 5 years at $15 to $18 million. I like rolling the dice here!
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Post by jmei on Nov 27, 2012 17:19:09 GMT -5
Honestly, the fact that Pete Abraham is against the trade is enough reason for me to be for it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2012 17:43:09 GMT -5
i think bard will rebound and get his head straight.
i'm not convinced that lester is past his prime. i still think he has several good years left in him. he did not experience a drop in velocity that i know of. the biggest thing is that he continued to rely a lot on his cutter to get guys out despite losing command of it. i also noticed that he did not used his change-up very often. i remember one game where he was throwing fastball after fastball. four seam, two seam, four seam, cutter, two seam, four seam... yet the batter continued to foul off pitch after pitch and eventually got a base hit. what i'm getting at is that lester rarely used his change-up and in that certain case, i think that it would have gotten him out. reading his scouting report on this website, it says that he has an above-average changeup.
i think the bottom line is that lester needs better selection of his pitches to regain dominance, and he needs to regain command of his cutter. i'm not sure if this is because lester is a headcase when it comes to pitch selection, or because of saltalamacchia's inability to call a game. the latter is more likely. starters had a 5.40 ERA with salty behind the dish
myers is great, but he strikes out so much in the minors that i question if he can make consistent contact in the majors. like i said, i'd make the trade if it meant getting a pitching prospect in return.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 27, 2012 17:54:36 GMT -5
i think bard will rebound and get his head straight. i'm not convinced that lester is past his prime. i still think he has several good years left in him. he did not experience a drop in velocity that i know of. the biggest thing is that he continued to rely a lot on his cutter to get guys out despite losing command of it. i also noticed that he did not used his change-up very often. i remember one game where he was throwing fastball after fastball. four seam, two seam, four seam, cutter, two seam, four seam... yet the batter continued to foul off pitch after pitch and eventually got a base hit. what i'm getting at is that lester rarely used his change-up and in that certain case, i think that it would have gotten him out. reading his scouting report on this website, it says that he has an above-average changeup. It's been pointed out already in the thread, but Lester has experienced declining fastball velocity over the past couple of seasons, which has coincided with his declining strikeout rates.
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Post by remember04 on Nov 27, 2012 18:05:26 GMT -5
Sounds like Peter Abraham is NOT for it.....but I am sold. How often do you get a chance to pick up, arguably, the best positional player in the minors and you are the Red Sox? Not often. Everyone can come up with scenario after scenario about who flopped and who didn't make it. There are many guys who have been considered a "sure-thing" and didn't quite make it. But to "hit a home run" is huge for our future! I've always liked Jon Lester, but it is quite possible that we may not ever extend him in 2 years for the outrageous money starters are getting currently. He really may not be worth it to give him 5 years at $15 to $18 million. I like rolling the dice here! As I and somebody else stated earlier though KC has a good reputation for producing position players so to me that makes this a little less risky than if it were another team. I'm also one of the few who is still high on Lester and think he'll bounce back at least a little. That said I'd still make this trade as I don't think they'll extend Lester at the end of his contract unless he's lights out the next two years and even I don't see that happening so basically the trade/gamble is two years of Lester vs. six years of Myers (maybe more) and I'll take the six years of Myers.
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Post by jmei on Nov 27, 2012 18:13:59 GMT -5
This deal probably already makes sense to the sabermetrically-inclined among us, but here's further evidence-- Victor Wang calculated the expected values of minor league prospects from 1990-99, and a top-10 hitter averaged a net present surplus value of $36.5m. Taking into account his salary, it means Lester needs to accumulate roughly 12.2 WAR over the next two years to break even. Even assuming we offer Lester the QO at the end of his deal and he rejects it, the value of an average compensation pick is roughly 1.8 WAR, meaning Lester would still need to accumulate 10.4 WAR to break even. The only pitchers who surpassed that total in 2011-12 are Verlander, Kershaw, Sabathia, Lee, Hernandez, and Halladay.
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Post by wildcardwillie on Nov 27, 2012 18:18:00 GMT -5
I believe the royals are taking just as much risk as we would. They could have an average pitcher for 2 years or a stud. we could have a bust ( doubt its a bust , apparently has other tools) or a stud for 6 yrs or anything in between. Wouldnt it be exciting to have a good right fielder. We can find solid pitching for a year or 2 and see whats out there as well. you can get an every day player for one that plays once every 5 what a difference a yr makes we wouldnt have thought lester would have fallen like this
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Post by wildcardwillie on Nov 27, 2012 18:22:21 GMT -5
Also his numbers were very good in minors , but also high minors. You dont just get lucky like that . I dont see why he couldnt play right away or possibly have a situation like WMB last yr if we are struggling in the outfield.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2012 18:33:42 GMT -5
Also his numbers were very good in minors , but also high minors. You dont just get lucky like that . I dont see why he couldnt play right away or possibly have a situation like WMB last yr if we are struggling in the outfield. myers is mlb ready. should have a starting job next year, wherever he is. i think the rays are the most likely to get myers. they can deal hellickson or shields for a top prospect hitter like myers. they have the pitching depth to afford to do this and they would be happy to dump payroll any way that they can
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Post by wildcardwillie on Nov 27, 2012 18:38:40 GMT -5
man if we can do this I like it, See if we can trade for lincecum, also get Edwin Jackson for short term
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2012 18:40:33 GMT -5
everyone has been saying that lester dropped off in 2011. this is not correct. until September 6, 2011, his second start in september, his ERA was 2.93. those are ace numbers for an AL East pitcher. he did terrible after that, likely because of the chicken and beef incident and his ERA raised to 3.47 to end the season following four more starts. he still has not regained form since then.
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Post by wildcardwillie on Nov 27, 2012 18:46:01 GMT -5
Lester is a good pitcher he had a down year, will he get it back who knows. If he wasnt good they wouldnt be thinking of giving up a top prospect for him.
Man we could use a few lefty bats in there couldnt we?
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Post by remember04 on Nov 27, 2012 19:10:17 GMT -5
Also his numbers were very good in minors , but also high minors. You dont just get lucky like that . I dont see why he couldnt play right away or possibly have a situation like WMB last yr if we are struggling in the outfield. myers is mlb ready. should have a starting job next year, wherever he is. i think the rays are the most likely to get myers. they can deal hellickson or shields for a top prospect hitter like myers. they have the pitching depth to afford to do this and they would be happy to dump payroll any way that they can And the ability to absorb a contract or two like Chens is where the Sox have the advantage. Other than Chen I don't know who else the Royals have they may want to dump but we can absorb $$$ while the Rays can't.
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Post by leo on Nov 27, 2012 19:14:41 GMT -5
This deal probably already makes sense to the sabermetrically-inclined among us, but here's further evidence-- Victor Wang calculated the expected values of minor league prospects from 1990-99, and a top-10 hitter averaged a net present surplus value of $36.5m. Taking into account his salary, it means Lester needs to accumulate roughly 12.2 WAR over the next two years to break even. Even assuming we offer Lester the QO at the end of his deal and he rejects it, the value of an average compensation pick is roughly 1.8 WAR, meaning Lester would still need to accumulate 10.4 WAR to break even. The only pitchers who surpassed that total in 2011-12 are Verlander, Kershaw, Sabathia, Lee, Hernandez, and Halladay. Wicked interesting statistic, thanks for that one. Really reinforces how valuable prospects are.
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Post by lloydbraun on Nov 27, 2012 19:31:21 GMT -5
One interesting note: BIll James projects very similar numbers for Lester & Lackey. That could be telling when considering how the sox view Lester long-term.
In regards to Abraham, he is bent on acquiring pitching. He and others fail to realize that if u deal pitching, you have 3 months to get more.
I would be happy with adding Aceves to the rotation and signing a SP if Lester is dealt.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 27, 2012 19:47:14 GMT -5
One interesting note: BIll James projects very similar numbers for Lester & Lackey. That could be telling when considering how the sox view Lester long-term. For the record, Bill James doesn't project anything. But there is a really crappy projection system with his name on it out there.
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Post by lloydbraun on Nov 27, 2012 19:51:17 GMT -5
One interesting note: BIll James projects very similar numbers for Lester & Lackey. That could be telling when considering how the sox view Lester long-term. For the record, Bill James doesn't project anything. But there is a really crappy projection system with his name on it out there. Is that you, Pete? Dealing Lester is the type of forward thinking, aggressive move I would admire. He is due if $$ in 2 years. He has mileage on is arm. If he goes, clearly Benny has a plan.
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Post by buffs4444 on Nov 27, 2012 20:06:31 GMT -5
Ouch (Is this because I referred to your version of WAR calculation as "fun with numbers"? It was just a joke, brother)
Seriously though, you're leaning heavily on his development into a top-10 hitter with that calculation. History is littered with prospects who didn't make it at all or simply developed into competent players. Delmon Young, similar numbers achieved at an earlier age, more highly regarded by evaluators, and Lester's crappy year last year almost eclipses Young's career WAR. I'll buy the Dunkin coffee for the trip to the airport to pick up Myers if someone could guarantee he's the next Braun, Ramirez, etc after exchanging him for Lester. That being said, I am willing to assume the risk of such an exchange if fate bestows a winning Powerball jackpot on me tomorrow......I'll hedge that risk by signing Greinke with part of my winnings, but I'll be with you just the same.
EDIT: For those worried about Lester's velocity, it took until about halfway through Farrell's introductory presser for him to identify a mechanical flaw that plagued Lester after he left. I'm willing to bet he thinks he can fix what ails Lester.
jmei edit: sorry, I was trying to reply to this post and I accidentally modified it. Think I fixed it now but I might have lost some formatting.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 27, 2012 20:19:15 GMT -5
History is also littered with pitchers who peak in the first few years of their careers and steadily decline. Can anyone guarantee that Lester will become an elite pitcher again? We can do this from both sides. Even the best trades on paper can fail miserably due to fluke events. Naming Delmon Young is a good reminder of the uncertainty in prospect projection, but he is the outlier here, and it's equally important to remember that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2012 20:27:22 GMT -5
i'd hang on to lester for at least one more year and see what hes got. he can't get any worse and can only get better. he is under team control for 2 more years and he is bound for a rebound, especially with farrell, his former pitching coach, as the skipper
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