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Midseason Top Prospect Lists (BP, BA, Law)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 8, 2015 9:40:23 GMT -5
Pretty remarkable considering that Swihart and Rodriguez would probably be top 20 if they were eligible. Plus Kopech has a shot if he has a great second half, and I think Espinoza looks to have a chance too. I mean, we say stuff like this all the time, but it's still worth acknowledging that that really is a lot of high-end talent after graduating Betts and Bogaerts the last two years. This is true, but you must also note that there has been a greater-than-normal incidence of top prospects being called up to the Majors generally (not to imply that you haven't). On the accompanying podcasts done by both BA and BP, this was the first thing noted. By my count, consider that of BA's preseason list, the top 4, 6 of the top 10, 11 of the top 20, and maybe another 10-15 guys from the list were ineligible because they're in the majors. So for example, the Cubs and Astros can feel similarly. I'd say those two clubs, the Sox, the Twins, and the Dodgers strike me as teams that have outstanding U-25 cores. Maybe the Mets on the mound if they can get healthy. |
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Post by okin15 on Jul 9, 2015 12:13:01 GMT -5
I'd say those two clubs [cubs and 'stros], the Sox, the Twins, and the Dodgers strike me as teams that have outstanding U-25 cores. Maybe the Mets on the mound if they can get healthy. i'd like to see a current ranking of U-25 Cores. Don't think I have nearly the knowledge to do it myself. |
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jul 9, 2015 13:04:57 GMT -5
Pretty remarkable considering that Swihart and Rodriguez would probably be top 20 if they were eligible. Plus Kopech has a shot if he has a great second half, and I think Espinoza looks to have a chance too. I mean, we say stuff like this all the time, but it's still worth acknowledging that that really is a lot of high-end talent after graduating Betts and Bogaerts the last two years. This is true, but you must also note that there has been a greater-than-normal incidence of top prospects being called up to the Majors generally (not to imply that you haven't). On the accompanying podcasts done by both BA and BP, this was the first thing noted. By my count, consider that of BA's preseason list, the top 4, 6 of the top 10, 11 of the top 20, and maybe another 10-15 guys from the list were ineligible because they're in the majors. So for example, the Cubs and Astros can feel similarly. I'd say those two clubs, the Sox, the Twins, and the Dodgers strike me as teams that have outstanding U-25 cores. Maybe the Mets on the mound if they can get healthy. Yeah, that's totally true ... there's a little mini-wave of top-end talent right now, it seems, some guys that look like they might be really good for a long time. As I was stuck in traffic on 95 yesterday, I was noodling around with an "if everything goes right" roster for the Sox for 4 years from now (earliest I could even somewhat-plausibly figure Devers, Kopech, Espinoza would get there), and it's pretty eye-popping. Some of those other teams could say that same thing, for sure ... |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2015 13:17:57 GMT -5
A Dodgers team that doesn't have to spend money on the spots filled by Pederson, Seager, and Urias is a little terrifying. At least the Cubs have some financial restraint.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jul 9, 2015 14:40:23 GMT -5
Yeah, when you have lots of money and superstars making small change ... oy.
Although I think a maybe-even-scarier thing for opponents of the Dodgers and Sox is that they'll have all the resources in the world to extend these players well through their primes, plus money to add to them. So, for a team like the Sox, in 4 years, they'll probably have been able to extend Bogaerts, Rodriguez and Betts (and, for the love of god, no one say the name "Boras' here ... yeah, I get it), and add to them with whomever among Devers, Margot, Moncada, Espinoza, and Kopech reach their potential, plus add some role players on the corners, etc, etc. When you have top-end young talent *and* money, it opens up all kinds of possibilities short-term and long.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 12, 2015 19:28:21 GMT -5
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Post by bigpupp on Jul 12, 2015 22:20:02 GMT -5
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 13, 2015 7:04:16 GMT -5
Is anyone else a little bothered by what Sickels said about Margot??? I didn't realize the "Bosox" could influence BA, and BP rankings; at least not any more or less than other teams.
"Some sources have him much higher than this but I wonder if there’s some Bosox hype there."
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2015 8:58:57 GMT -5
Is anyone else a little bothered by what Sickels said about Margot??? I didn't realize the "Bosox" could influence BA, and BP rankings; at least not any more or less than other teams. "Some sources have him much higher than this but I wonder if there’s some Bosox hype there." Nope. I tend to favor sources who've actually seen the players they write about. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 13, 2015 9:05:17 GMT -5
There's probably something to the fact that Red Sox prospects (as well as Yankees and Dodgers) get a bit more hype - whether that hype is reflected in the rankings is debatable. I do know that SoxProspects.com Scout Emeritus Chris Mellen, now at BP, thinks very highly of Margot and has ever since the first time he saw him at Fall Instructs. Mellen has definitely seen Margot a LOT more than Sickels has. Like, infinitely more times. That doesn't mean Chris is infallible or anything, but I definitely trust his judgment more than Sickels in general, and even moreso on Margot specifically.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 13, 2015 11:05:43 GMT -5
I guess my concern is if "Red Sox prospects are often overhyped" who is doing the over hyping and why? I get that someone like Chris Mellen would have more eyes on Manuel Margot than Sickels, but does that mean that baseball prospectus overall scouts Sox players more than other teams prospects? Does B.A. have more eyes on Red Sox prospects than other teams?
I'm just hoping that it's not some inflammatory remark that would resemble something on a boston.com sports forum that thinks all our prospects are over hyped and will bust because of Lars Anderson, Will Middlebrooks and JBJ. I've always liked and respected Sickels work I was just a little taken back by those comments about our guys being overhyped under multiple soxprospects.
I figured I might be interpreting that wrong and thought you guys might be able to help me out. If it is strictly just because our guys are seen more then I understand. I just wasn't aware that Red Sox prospects were scouted more than other teams prospects. Outside of amazing sites such as soxprospects.com that is.
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Post by charliezink16 on Jul 13, 2015 14:51:15 GMT -5
From the comment section.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
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Post by alnipper on Jul 13, 2015 16:32:54 GMT -5
Guerra should be as well.
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Post by charliezink16 on Jul 16, 2015 10:21:31 GMT -5
@iamjoonlee: Five #RedSox prospects in @keithlaw Top-50: Rafael Devers (8), Yoan Moncada (11), Manuel Margot (14), Henry Owens (37), Javier Guerra (48).
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 16, 2015 11:14:48 GMT -5
Nice to see Guerra in the top 50. Wow!
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Post by semsox on Jul 16, 2015 11:46:18 GMT -5
First list that's had Devers above Moncada, and I don't think I disagree with it.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,670
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Post by nomar on Jul 16, 2015 12:25:20 GMT -5
Upside trumps all as usual
One look at Devers' body and it's easy to see he's still a couple of years away. I'd put Moncada ahead of him.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 16, 2015 13:02:04 GMT -5
First list that's had Devers above Moncada, and I don't think I disagree with it. Notes in the Margot comment section " Scouts absolutely adore Margot -- more than one has told me he'd put Margot ahead of Devers and Moncada in Bostons system-- not just because of his tools but because of his instincts, with Margot potentially a plus-plus defender in center who has an excellent eye at the plate." |
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,181
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Post by radiohix on Jul 16, 2015 13:12:58 GMT -5
I'll take Margot over Devers because:
- Manny seems to stick at CF (and be a difference maker there with his glove) while Devers seems to move to 1st base as he feels out.
- Margot adds value on the base path
- Proximity to the bigs while being very young to the level of competition
- The difference of the bat is not that great to cover what other aspects MM brings with his tool set.
Don't get me wrong, I love both and think we're very fortunate to have them but I'll take Margot if I need to make a choice.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 16, 2015 13:46:04 GMT -5
.. Devers seems to move to 1st base as he fills (edit) out … Keith Law said in his write-up that Devers shows as "agile" and with a "plus arm." So maybe he doesn't have to move? (although he also saw Moncada as a potential 3rd baseman) |
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Post by brnichols19873 on Jul 16, 2015 14:17:28 GMT -5
If Kopech/Espinoza finish the second half performing like they have up to this point it's hard not to think that they would be virtual "locks" to makes top 50s by seasons end/off season which would give them 7 total top 50 which would be downright upsurd. Consider that coming into the season Boston tied with few others to lead most TOP 100! lists with a total of 7 prospects included!!! I would have to go back and check up on all the previous lists but I am inclined to think that 7 top 50s would be virtually unprecedented.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 16, 2015 14:25:29 GMT -5
If Kopech/Espinoza finish the second half performing like they have up to this point it's hard not to think that they would be virtual "locks" to makes top 50s by seasons end/off season which would give them 7 total top 50 which would be downright upsurd. Consider that coming into the season Boston tied with few others to lead most TOP 100! lists with a total of 7 prospects included!!! I would have to go back and check up on all the previous lists but I am inclined to think that 7 top 50s would be virtually unprecedented. Well, maybe, but remember, these lists don't include draftees yet, and don't include anyone who is in the majors - some guys who are up now won't lose their eligibility and will be added back in the offseason. Plus they're not as well researched as the offseason ones are, so there could be a lot of movement. Plus, I wouldn't assume those two are locks -- consider what Devers did to the DSL and GCL last year as a hitter and he was a fringe top 100 guy. Plus there's a phenomenon where when you cut a list to a certain number, you're inclined to put a certain type of player near the back of it typically, and Guerra fits that prototype. It wouldn't surprise me, if Law did the same list now but out to 75 or 100, if Guerra landed lower than he is on this list. 7 in the top 50 would be pretty unprecedented. Cubs had 5 of BA's top 50 this offseason and there was "greatest ever" talk, iirc. |
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Post by brnichols19873 on Jul 16, 2015 14:44:05 GMT -5
If Kopech/Espinoza finish the second half performing like they have up to this point it's hard not to think that they would be virtual "locks" to makes top 50s by seasons end/off season which would give them 7 total top 50 which would be downright upsurd. Consider that coming into the season Boston tied with few others to lead most TOP 100! lists with a total of 7 prospects included!!! I would have to go back and check up on all the previous lists but I am inclined to think that 7 top 50s would be virtually unprecedented. Well, maybe, but remember, these lists don't include draftees yet, and don't include anyone who is in the majors - some guys who are up now won't lose their eligibility and will be added back in the offseason. Plus they're not as well researched as the offseason ones are, so there could be a lot of movement. Plus, I wouldn't assume those two are locks -- consider what Devers did to the DSL and GCL last year as a hitter and he was a fringe top 100 guy. Plus there's a phenomenon where when you cut a list to a certain number, you're inclined to put a certain type of player near the back of it typically, and Guerra fits that prototype. It wouldn't surprise me, if Law did the same list now but out to 75 or 100, if Guerra landed lower than he is on this list. 7 in the top 50 would be pretty unprecedented. Cubs had 5 of BA's top 50 this offseason and there was "greatest ever" talk, iirc. Yes I agree completely not saying it will happen but IMO the fact that its even a conversation and not just some fan boy hype is pretty remarkable and impressive. And the absurd part is that on their own this type of minor league devel would be a tremendous achievement but coming after they just produced easily the best 23 and under talent of any team in the majors with Betts X Erod and Swihart its downright insane!!! |
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KB24
Rookie
Posts: 147 
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Post by KB24 on Jul 16, 2015 14:45:14 GMT -5
If Kopech/Espinoza finish the second half performing like they have up to this point it's hard not to think that they would be virtual "locks" to makes top 50s by seasons end/off season which would give them 7 total top 50 which would be downright upsurd. Consider that coming into the season Boston tied with few others to lead most TOP 100! lists with a total of 7 prospects included!!! I would have to go back and check up on all the previous lists but I am inclined to think that 7 top 50s would be virtually unprecedented. To go along with Swihart and E-Rod graduating this year and Mookie/Xander in 2014. An embarrassment of riches. Now if they can put it all together and actually capitalize on all this talent over the next 5-7 years! |
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KB24
Rookie
Posts: 147
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Post by KB24 on Jul 16, 2015 15:03:50 GMT -5
It's drool inducing to see how filthy the homegrown 2020 roster could potentially be.
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