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Midseason Top Prospect Lists (BP, BA, Law)
ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,414
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Post by ianrs on Jul 16, 2015 15:11:49 GMT -5
This is a very, very exciting time to be a Red Sox (and Soxprospects) fan.
Thanks to all who passed along the lists. I know lots of these midseason lists are artificially inflated, but the fact that we may have Moncada / Margot / Devers / Owens / Johnson / Guerra / Espinosa / Benintendi all pushing for top 100 spots is pretty exciting. Not to mention Betts, Bogaerts, Rodriguez, Swihart, and then Vazquez coming back.
As tough as the last few seasons have been, I think the next 5 to 7 years are going to treat us very, very well.
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Post by thebogeyman on Jul 16, 2015 15:14:16 GMT -5
If Kopech/Espinoza finish the second half performing like they have up to this point it's hard not to think that they would be virtual "locks" to makes top 50s by seasons end/off season which would give them 7 total top 50 which would be downright upsurd. Consider that coming into the season Boston tied with few others to lead most TOP 100! lists with a total of 7 prospects included!!! I would have to go back and check up on all the previous lists but I am inclined to think that 7 top 50s would be virtually unprecedented. Well, maybe, but remember, these lists don't include draftees yet, and don't include anyone who is in the majors - some guys who are up now won't lose their eligibility and will be added back in the offseason. Plus they're not as well researched as the offseason ones are, so there could be a lot of movement. Plus, I wouldn't assume those two are locks -- consider what Devers did to the DSL and GCL last year as a hitter and he was a fringe top 100 guy. Plus there's a phenomenon where when you cut a list to a certain number, you're inclined to put a certain type of player near the back of it typically, and Guerra fits that prototype. It wouldn't surprise me, if Law did the same list now but out to 75 or 100, if Guerra landed lower than he is on this list. 7 in the top 50 would be pretty unprecedented. Cubs had 5 of BA's top 50 this offseason and there was "greatest ever" talk, iirc. Law's list does include draftees, FWIW. It does not include any players in the majors though.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 16, 2015 15:14:59 GMT -5
Well, maybe, but remember, these lists don't include draftees yet, and don't include anyone who is in the majors - some guys who are up now won't lose their eligibility and will be added back in the offseason. Plus they're not as well researched as the offseason ones are, so there could be a lot of movement. Plus, I wouldn't assume those two are locks -- consider what Devers did to the DSL and GCL last year as a hitter and he was a fringe top 100 guy. Plus there's a phenomenon where when you cut a list to a certain number, you're inclined to put a certain type of player near the back of it typically, and Guerra fits that prototype. It wouldn't surprise me, if Law did the same list now but out to 75 or 100, if Guerra landed lower than he is on this list. 7 in the top 50 would be pretty unprecedented. Cubs had 5 of BA's top 50 this offseason and there was "greatest ever" talk, iirc. Law's list does include draftees, FWIW. It does not include any players in the majors though. Better hold off on the Kopech love...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 16, 2015 15:47:57 GMT -5
Well, maybe, but remember, these lists don't include draftees yet, and don't include anyone who is in the majors - some guys who are up now won't lose their eligibility and will be added back in the offseason. Plus they're not as well researched as the offseason ones are, so there could be a lot of movement. Plus, I wouldn't assume those two are locks -- consider what Devers did to the DSL and GCL last year as a hitter and he was a fringe top 100 guy. Plus there's a phenomenon where when you cut a list to a certain number, you're inclined to put a certain type of player near the back of it typically, and Guerra fits that prototype. It wouldn't surprise me, if Law did the same list now but out to 75 or 100, if Guerra landed lower than he is on this list. 7 in the top 50 would be pretty unprecedented. Cubs had 5 of BA's top 50 this offseason and there was "greatest ever" talk, iirc. Law's list does include draftees, FWIW. It does not include any players in the majors though. Oh, does it? K then.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 17, 2015 8:20:42 GMT -5
BA Mid-season Top 10 for the Red Sox:
1. Moncada 2. Devers 3. Margot 4. Johnson 5. Owens 6. Castillo 7. Guerra 8. Kopech 9. Espinoza 10. Travis
Rising: Marco Hernandez Falling: Chavis, Cecchini
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Post by theolearyfactor on Jul 21, 2015 14:53:54 GMT -5
Have any former Boston farmhands appeared on the mid-season lists? A Frank Montas sighting perhaps?
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Post by thebogeyman on Jul 22, 2015 9:52:03 GMT -5
I'm not sure if this belongs here or as a separate thread, but Keith Law just released his updated top farm systems list and the Sox are...wait for it...#1. insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4112 (insider only) EDIT: One thing I found interesting was that he thought JBJr, Marrero, and Cecchini could be on MLB rosters for some teams. The first two are not too surprising, but given the season Cecchini is having so far, I wouldn't have expected that for him. EDIT2: Does anyone know when, if ever, we were last ranked as the #1 system?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2015 10:25:52 GMT -5
Added to that, Law ranks these five players among the top 50 prospects in baseball:
Rafael Devers, 3B (8th); Yoan Moncada, 2B (11); Manuel Margot, CF (14); Henry Owens, LHP (37); Javier Guerra, SS (48)
Given that this team will not have a lot of money to play with in the off season and has distinctive needs, you may have to say good-bye to some of your favorites.
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Post by kman22 on Jul 22, 2015 10:54:28 GMT -5
Added to that, Law ranks these five players among the top 50 prospects in baseball: Rafael Devers, 3B (8th); Yoan Moncada, 2B (11); Manuel Margot, CF (14); Henry Owens, LHP (37); Javier Guerra, SS (48) Given that this team will not have a lot of money to play with in the off season and has distinctive needs, you may have to say good-bye to some of your favorites. $30M off the books from Napoli and Victorino, plus $9M from Masterson, none of which have contributed. $40M isn't a lot?
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jul 22, 2015 10:56:25 GMT -5
"The only weakness in the system now is near-term pitching after Owens, since Eduardo Rodriguez and Brian Johnson already have graduated to the majors, while former high picks such as Trey Ball and Teddy Stankiewicz have srugged"
This is the primary return I'm looking for as the selloff begins.
Double a or high end a ball starting pitching.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 10:56:31 GMT -5
Well, Moncada definitely isn't going anywhere...they paid a lot for the ticket to get on that train, and they're either going to be on it when it derails, or when it pulls into Cooperstown (or, really, any and every stop between). Devers is an elite hitting talent by many accounts, and they're not moving him unless they get back the same, with some contract certainty. I think they like Owens as a three or better, and seeing as how he's major-league ready, I think it's unlikely he gets moved. I think they're more likely to put him in the rotation and cross their fingers. Being in low A, I get the sense they might want to hold on to Guerra's great defense, but they could possibly trade him while he's hot offensively and shooting up lists. I'd prefer that they NOT do that, but by season's end he may be slotting top-35 if he's got 20 taters and an average near .300. Remember Josh Reddick in Greenville? Similar profile as a hitter...pretty good major-league player.
With Benintendi's signing, though, I think Margot is probably the most likely to get moved. They have a lot of OF redundancy and he's been a hot commodity lately. Personally, I'd like to see him in LF in two years, with Betts in CF and JBJ in RF, but if he can return an impact bat or young, quality arm, I'll live with it. The nice thing is, they've got young players at SS, CF, C, and SP, and have high-upside players in the minors (or, in the case of Vazquez, on the shelf) for all of those positions, and more.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 11:02:07 GMT -5
"The only weakness in the system now is near-term pitching after Owens, since Eduardo Rodriguez and Brian Johnson already have graduated to the majors, while former high picks such as Trey Ball and Teddy Stankiewicz have srugged" This is the primary return I'm looking for as the selloff begins. Double a or high end a ball starting pitching. DeLeon or Holmes from the Dodgers. Jose Berrios from the Twins. Although, you've got to wonder if the Sox have enough of interest to warrant teams moving players of that caliber. They may be better off going after "arms"...guys who (like Frank Montas was) had big velocity but were struggling a bit in low-A. Pick up enough, and one or two should graduate to high-A/AA.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jul 22, 2015 11:25:28 GMT -5
...with Betts in CF and JBJ in RF... I'm curious why you'd want JBJ in RF and Betts in CF in your dream scenario when JBJ is the better CF now and in the foreseeable future and the offensive bar needed to play that position is lower than RF. Wouldn't JBJ in CF and Betts in RF be a better alignment both offensively and defensively?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2015 11:29:06 GMT -5
...with Betts in CF and JBJ in RF... I'm curious why you'd want JBJ in RF and Betts in CF in your dream scenario when JBJ is the better CF now and in the foreseeable future and the offensive bar needed to play that position is lower than RF. Wouldn't JBJ in CF and Betts in RF be a better alignment both offensively and defensively? If we're thinking way down the road, I'd like Betts in LF, JBJ in CF and Moncada or Benintendi in RF. Betts arm isn't quite strong enough for me in RF. And he seems like the kind of guy who would master the wall. The offensive bar for CF/RF/LF doesn't really matter all that much when they're all in the lineup anyway.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 15:16:01 GMT -5
...with Betts in CF and JBJ in RF... I'm curious why you'd want JBJ in RF and Betts in CF in your dream scenario when JBJ is the better CF now and in the foreseeable future and the offensive bar needed to play that position is lower than RF. Wouldn't JBJ in CF and Betts in RF be a better alignment both offensively and defensively? Been said already, but mostly arm strength. JBJ has an (almost) 80 arm.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 22, 2015 16:18:06 GMT -5
I still want him center if he shows he can hit enough to be an everyday OF. Between JBJ, Betts, Margot, and Benny they should be able to put together a solid OF
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,922
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2015 16:38:56 GMT -5
I still want him center if he shows he can hit enough to be an everyday OF. Between JBJ, Betts, Margot, and Benny they should be able to put together a solid OF We need a font for understatement, too?
I don't see Margot as a trade chip this winter unless Hanley continues his LF improvement to the point where he's an average or plus defender. I don't think they're adverse to trying him at 1B, and I think that discussion will start as soon as they trade Napoli. The obvious guy to deal this winter to get studly young RHP, assuming Vazquez has no setback, is Swihart (see the "How to Fix the Sox" thread for the argument).
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 20:47:59 GMT -5
I still want him center if he shows he can hit enough to be an everyday OF. Between JBJ, Betts, Margot, and Benny they should be able to put together a solid OF We need a font for understatement, too?
I don't see Margot as a trade chip this winter unless Hanley continues his LF improvement to the point where he's an average or plus defender. I don't think they're adverse to trying him at 1B, and I think that discussion will start as soon as they trade Napoli. The obvious guy to deal this winter to get studly young RHP, assuming Vazquez has no setback, is Swihart (see the "How to Fix the Sox" thread for the argument). I think trading Swihart before Vazquez is back is a mistake. It leaves them thin at C and there's no telling if Vazquez will have the arm he did before. He'll obviously still be a terrific pitch-framer, but he may lose a significant portion of his defensive value. I'd prefer to see how Vazquez comes back and hopefully see how Swihart develops some before making a trade. I do agree that they could really use a young, cost-controlled RH in the Salazar/Walker mold.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 22, 2015 20:55:31 GMT -5
We need a font for understatement, too?
I don't see Margot as a trade chip this winter unless Hanley continues his LF improvement to the point where he's an average or plus defender. I don't think they're adverse to trying him at 1B, and I think that discussion will start as soon as they trade Napoli. The obvious guy to deal this winter to get studly young RHP, assuming Vazquez has no setback, is Swihart (see the "How to Fix the Sox" thread for the argument). I think trading Swihart before Vazquez is back is a mistake. It leaves them thin at C and there's no telling if Vazquez will have the arm he did before. He'll obviously still be a terrific pitch-framer, but he may lose a significant portion of his defensive value. I'd prefer to see how Vazquez comes back and hopefully see how Swihart develops some before making a trade. I do agree that they could really use a young, cost-controlled RH in the Salazar/Walker mold. Will he? Yadier Molina's pitch-framing values have taken a hit this year, and it seems to be because so much was written about his good pitch framing that umpires paid attention. There's a certain irony that, now that we have a general idea how important pitch-framing is, the players who can do it well may be marginalized because we can tell that they are doing it.
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Post by jmei on Jul 22, 2015 21:40:50 GMT -5
I think trading Swihart before Vazquez is back is a mistake. It leaves them thin at C and there's no telling if Vazquez will have the arm he did before. He'll obviously still be a terrific pitch-framer, but he may lose a significant portion of his defensive value. I'd prefer to see how Vazquez comes back and hopefully see how Swihart develops some before making a trade. I do agree that they could really use a young, cost-controlled RH in the Salazar/Walker mold. Will he? Yadier Molina's pitch-framing values have taken a hit this year, and it seems to be because so much was written about his good pitch framing that umpires paid attention. There's a certain irony that, now that we have a general idea how important pitch-framing is, the players who can do it well may be marginalized because we can tell that they are doing it. Got a source for this? Honest question. Have not heard much chatter on the subject and am curious.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 22:03:00 GMT -5
I think trading Swihart before Vazquez is back is a mistake. It leaves them thin at C and there's no telling if Vazquez will have the arm he did before. He'll obviously still be a terrific pitch-framer, but he may lose a significant portion of his defensive value. I'd prefer to see how Vazquez comes back and hopefully see how Swihart develops some before making a trade. I do agree that they could really use a young, cost-controlled RH in the Salazar/Walker mold. Will he? Yadier Molina's pitch-framing values have taken a hit this year, and it seems to be because so much was written about his good pitch framing that umpires paid attention. There's a certain irony that, now that we have a general idea how important pitch-framing is, the players who can do it well may be marginalized because we can tell that they are doing it. Valid point, and all the more reason to wait. FWIW, it seems to me that the best plan is to see what they have in Owens, Johnson, and to some extent, Rodriguez. Eduardo has had some pitch-tipping issues, but presuming he can straighten them out (or even learn to use the "tell" to his advantage...eg, intentionally when throwing offspeed stuff), he looks to be at least a fair 3 and possibly more. I don't expect Johnson or Owens to be good this year or probably even next, but with those three, Porcello, and Buchholz+injury fill-in, they could have a reasonably solid rotation. Kelly is a 6th starter with upside, or a great 'pen arm. Kopech is probably two years away, and I think Miley should be trade bait for an NL team. What if Miley could be shopped to SF or LA? LA in particular has some very good minor league arms in DeLeon and Holmes (though Miley alone is probably not enough). With Napoli, Victorino, and Masterson on the outs, the Sox have the option of dipping into FA. I like the idea of going after Sonny Gray, but I don't see Oakland dealing him to Boston. On the other hand, with five top-50 players, and probably 8 top-100s come season's end, they have options. As much as I'd hate to see Margot go, he probably has a lot of value right now, and they have an OF glut. IMO, they should build on their top-100 base and try to squeeze a few 80-120 range prospects out of what they have in the majors right now. Koji, De Aza, and Holt (only for a top-60) have real value. Napoli and Victorino might with salary relief. Pick up a few high risk/high reward low-A players to boot (look at what Hernandez has done), and see if a top-40, 60, and 90 can be packaged for a young starter. Based on the top-50s, it looks like Devers, Moncada, Margot will all be top-25, unless one or more tanks in the second half. Owens and Johnson are roughly 40-60 range, but may graduate from prospect status...so their trade value is tough to gauge. Kopech seems a reasonable bet for top-100 even with the suspension. Espinoza does too, mostly based on stuff over performance. Guerra has stayed hot, and looks like a 40-60 guy. Benintendi has answered (to some extent, in a SSS) the big question of whether he would hit for power with wood bats. He could possibly sneak into the 80-90 range. So even if Owens and Johnson graduate, they look to have 6-8 guys in the top 100, with Bogey, Betts, Swihart, Vazquez, and JBJ all recent graduates. Light, Barnes (?), Aro, Jerez, Hembree, and Younginer are all potential 'pen depth, but huge question marks. So the main area of system weakness becomes upper-level RH SPs. If they can acquire just a couple more top-100 prospects, they may be able to get a young, cost-controlled RHP and eliminate that weakness. In that case, the $ from Nap/Vic/Masterson can go towards relief help and extensions for Bogaerts/Betts. Unfortunately, they're in a tweener state...lots of good minor-league talent, but none of it truly on the horizon for 2016. So to some extent, this is the time to use redundant positional talent to eliminate a major weakness, or otherwise acquire more minor league talent and hope that at least some of the acquisitions build value and become significant assets in the postseason. It seems to me that the only way they compete in 2016 is with continued development of the young guys and a major trade or two in the offseason. Of their top prospects (none of whom I particularly want to see moved), Guerra and Margot seem to have the most buzz, and thus highest value at present...and both are somewhat blocked, and both are a year away (or in Guerra's case, probably three). A big question is, does keeping Guerra provide the ultimate hedge against Bogaerts leaving, and does this make him a "near-untouchable?"
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 22, 2015 22:13:31 GMT -5
Will he? Yadier Molina's pitch-framing values have taken a hit this year, and it seems to be because so much was written about his good pitch framing that umpires paid attention. There's a certain irony that, now that we have a general idea how important pitch-framing is, the players who can do it well may be marginalized because we can tell that they are doing it. Got a source for this? Honest question. Have not heard much chatter on the subject and am curious. fivethirtyeight.com/features/yadier-molina-forgot-how-to-frame-a-pitch/There is the article about Molina's sudden decline (though the numbers are dated). The idea that the umpires have caught on is my speculation, but Craig Calcaterra had the same reaction. As I mentioned a few times this offseason, hitting and throwing are skills, while pitch framing is exploiting a flaw in the game. I don't think that's a bad thing or whatever, but I'm a little bearish on players whose value could decrease either through better technology or better training or even just by umpires noticing that a specific player is pulling one over on them.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 30, 2015 17:45:24 GMT -5
MLB updated their Top 30 lists for every team including the Red Sox. Benintendi slots in at #6 between Owens at 5 and Guerra at 7. They are also all aboard the Espinoza train who they slot at #9. One other interesting tidbit, I'm fairly certain they had Yoan Aybar in the last version of the list towards the very back, but he has since been replaced by Luis Alexander Basabe at #30. That probably has more to do with Basabe's strong play at Lowell, because Aybar has been very solid in the GCL.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 31, 2015 0:13:58 GMT -5
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 15, 2015 11:21:40 GMT -5
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