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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2015 15:22:48 GMT -5
I read the Speier piece and all I could think is "Dammit! The Yankees will have Bogarts AND Harper in their prime."
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Post by xandah on Jul 14, 2015 18:06:37 GMT -5
"Boras will want 10 years, and likely AAV of $23-25M."
Boras can't demand those kind of dollars right now. You're forgetting the Redsox still have an additonal 4 years of control left. In those 4 years Xander will probably make around 30mil. So right now, lets say Bogaerts is signed for 4/30mil.
I have a hard time seeing Boras allowing Xander to sign a 10 year deal, if there was an extension to be had, it would probably be a 6 or 7 year deal that eats out 2-3 years of free agency in return for an x amount of guaranteed dollars.
So if Bogaerts is making 4/30mil and you want him for an additional 2-3 years you'll be valuing those additional years a 15-20mil a piece. So for example, a 6/70mil deal makes sense. You are giving Bogaerts 40mil, or 20mil a year, for his aged 27 and 28 seasons that would of been free agency years and are allowing him to enter FA as a 29 year old with 70mil already in his pocket.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 15, 2015 10:01:08 GMT -5
Isn't Xander's brother now an Agent? My guess is he becomes Xander's agent at some point.
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Post by raftsox on Jul 15, 2015 14:23:46 GMT -5
Yes, Jair is an agent (in training?) now. He's not exactly high-profile or experienced though, so it would be a surprise if Xander signed with him. Not outside the realm of possibility though.
Boras does work for his clients and is not opposed to extensions. If The Red Sox approach X and he's determined to sign an extension then they will sign one. Boras might even advise that it's a good idea to. I think they could get one done if it were slightly larger than Andrus' or Freeman's extensions; thereby setting a new precedent for pre-arb extensions.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 15, 2015 16:27:23 GMT -5
Yes, Jair is an agent (in training?) now. He's not exactly high-profile or experienced though, so it would be a surprise if Xander signed with him. Not outside the realm of possibility though. Boras does work for his clients and is not opposed to extensions. If The Red Sox approach X and he's determined to sign an extension then they will sign one. Boras might even advise that it's a good idea to. I think they could get one done if it were slightly larger than Andrus' or Freeman's extensions; thereby setting a new precedent for pre-arb extensions. I don't think so. He got a partial WS share in 2013 and is making plus 500,000 the last 2 years. He's already made more than most make in a life time. From his country it isn't close. I'm almost 100 % sure he bought a injury protection plan. So he has no need to sign now. It would take big time money, he holds the cards. Boras doesn't really mean much other than he probably goes to the highest bidder. I'll just enjoy his next 4 years. |
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 21, 2015 15:52:24 GMT -5
Sure, but it still requires a little projection. It's the same dynamic with the Porcello extension-- he's done one thing in one year and another thing in another year, but has yet to put it all together (in Porcello's case, it was Ks and GBs, in Bogaerts' case, it's contact and power). Bogaerts is younger and has a better pedigree, so his odds of doing so are probably better, but there's still a significant risk that he can't combine swinging hard enough to hit his power ceiling with swinging carefully enough to avoid striking out a bunch. I thought of this conversation while I was reading this article. I learned alot from it. Maybe he won't be able to put up the big HR numbers. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/correa-bogaerts-and-the-development-of-power/ |
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 22, 2015 18:19:48 GMT -5
I read that article as well and it kind of reaffirmed some thoughts I had on Bogaerts. Part of that being he never really hits long fly balls. Almost all his hits are line drives that just get over the infield. His swing plane and inefficient use of his lower half are really draining his power. In that article they have GIFs of some older swings where he seems to use his lower half a bit more aggressively. |
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 22, 2015 20:53:42 GMT -5
btw, it may be time to extend Xander now/all star break. Boras client who will be a free agent at age 26. They should try to lock him up. Boras will want 10 years, and likely AAV of $23-25M. Or you can watch him spend his prime in pinstripes. Extremely premature and silly to be talking about this now. Shouldn't any player who you consider signing to a long term deal prove they can be successful for at least 1.5 years to 2 yrs straight first? That's a rhetorical question. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 22, 2015 21:44:35 GMT -5
btw, it may be time to extend Xander now/all star break. Boras client who will be a free agent at age 26. They should try to lock him up. Boras will want 10 years, and likely AAV of $23-25M. Or you can watch him spend his prime in pinstripes. Extremely premature and silly to be talking about this now. Shouldn't any player who you consider signing to a long term deal prove they can be successful for at least 1.5 years to 2 yrs straight first? That's a rhetorical question. I hope that was a sarcastic question too. |
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Post by rafael on Jul 22, 2015 22:31:47 GMT -5
btw, it may be time to extend Xander now/all star break. Boras client who will be a free agent at age 26. They should try to lock him up. Boras will want 10 years, and likely AAV of $23-25M. Or you can watch him spend his prime in pinstripes. Extremely premature and silly to be talking about this now. Shouldn't any player who you consider signing to a long term deal prove they can be successful for at least 1.5 years to 2 yrs straight first? That's a rhetorical question. I really disagree with the notion that to sign a guy to a long term deal he must have a good track record in the majors. The Jon Singleton extension should be a model to follow as the risk is minimum and the upside is enormous. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 23, 2015 12:30:27 GMT -5
Extremely premature and silly to be talking about this now. Shouldn't any player who you consider signing to a long term deal prove they can be successful for at least 1.5 years to 2 yrs straight first? That's a rhetorical question. I really disagree with the notion that to sign a guy to a long term deal he must have a good track record in the majors. The Jon Singleton extension should be a model to follow as the risk is minimum and the upside is enormous. Well the response was to a comment that we need to hand him $250 million, so yeah, I think we should wait on that. He might just be having a lucky BABIP season. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 23, 2015 12:43:38 GMT -5
I really disagree with the notion that to sign a guy to a long term deal he must have a good track record in the majors. The Jon Singleton extension should be a model to follow as the risk is minimum and the upside is enormous. Well the response was to a comment that we need to hand him $250 million, so yeah, I think we should wait on that. He might just be having a lucky BABIP season. I think the slap hitting in general should be a concern. I would only assume that Bogaerts is an average defender long term, and without the power he doesn't have as much star potential. I'm hoping it comes back, but Bogaerts really seems more concerned with not getting beat in the spot that killed him last year than he is with driving the ball. Hopefully he gradually works his way into understanding how to be selectively aggressive and remembers how to get to his raw power. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 23, 2015 13:09:08 GMT -5
Well the response was to a comment that we need to hand him $250 million, so yeah, I think we should wait on that. He might just be having a lucky BABIP season. I think the slap hitting in general should be a concern. I would only assume that Bogaerts is an average defender long term, and without the power he doesn't have as much star potential. I'm hoping it comes back, but Bogaerts really seems more concerned with not getting beat in the spot that killed him last year than he is with driving the ball. Hopefully he gradually works his way into understanding how to be selectively aggressive and remembers how to get to his raw power. Don't worry - the power will come big-time....in 2019  |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 23, 2015 17:07:42 GMT -5
I think the slap hitting in general should be a concern. I would only assume that Bogaerts is an average defender long term, and without the power he doesn't have as much star potential. I'm hoping it comes back, but Bogaerts really seems more concerned with not getting beat in the spot that killed him last year than he is with driving the ball. Hopefully he gradually works his way into understanding how to be selectively aggressive and remembers how to get to his raw power. Don't worry - the power will come big-time....in 2019 Look at Edwin Encarnacion. He was a 15-25 HR guy until age 29, when he finally blew up. |
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 23, 2015 17:28:39 GMT -5
I would love for Bogaerts to be a 15-25 homer guy, but he has some substantial adjustments to make to reach even that. He barely walks anymore 4.5 BB% this year, and his iso numbers are substantially lower than his minors numbers and even lower than last year(.107 currently). A reasonable extension to buyout his arb. years makes sense, but a massive contract right now feels a bit too much.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 1, 2015 13:16:14 GMT -5
From 108 Stitches today:
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 1, 2015 13:45:36 GMT -5
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 1, 2015 19:15:18 GMT -5
Yea, not a ton of comps for either XB or MB, but if the Sox could pull off an extension for one of them soon, that would be spectacular. Figure Betts would be more likely to get one with Xander going year to year, but if Xander feels comfortable, maybe he's a rare Boras client who signs a long term deal pre-FA
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Post by dcsoxfan on Dec 12, 2015 10:48:56 GMT -5
Now that Uncle Dave has finished his Xmas shopping and Santa has decided that Red Sox (and Cubs) nation is on his nice list, I would suggest that topic number one should be contract extensions for Betts and Bogaerts.
Betts is pretty much a slam dunk; barring major injuries I feel like you can pencil him in for forty to fifty WAR over the next decade (with his athleticism I think he'll hold his value into his early thirties at least).
Bogaerts is more interesting; I think there is a wide range of possible outcomes still for him. However, with his heir apparent traded to the Padres is there more incentive to sign him? Will he eventually move to third? Do we want to lock up his age 27 and 28 seasons now?
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 12, 2015 11:33:30 GMT -5
Now that Uncle Dave has finished his Xmas shopping and Santa has decided that Red Sox (and Cubs) nation is on his nice list, I would suggest that topic number one should be contract extensions for Betts and Bogaerts. Betts is pretty much a slam dunk; barring major injuries I feel like you can pencil him in for forty to fifty WAR over the next decade (with his athleticism I think he'll hold his value into his early thirties at least). Bogaerts is more interesting; I think there is a wide range of possible outcomes still for him. However, with his heir apparent traded to the Padres is there more incentive to sign him? Will he eventually move to third? Do we want to lock up his age 27 and 28 seasons now? Get X done this year, for a deal announced after the season starts so it does not impact 2016. Do the same for Mookie next year, possibly Bradley also if he has that break out year I'm expecting. I don't see Boras advising any more than a 2 year post arb buy out, possibly only 1. I suppose when the deal is announced we'll learn just how much X likes playing in Boston. I can see then tying up Mookie for a longer window. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 12, 2015 11:41:45 GMT -5
There is next to no chance Boras clients sign an extension early. I'm still waiting for X to dump him for his brother... Cargo is the only one i can think of off the top of my head who signed an extension before free agency. In sure there are others, but Cargo basically got market value or close to it. There wasn't a big discount. My guess would be that if they wanted to extend Bogaerts early, it would have to be 6 years 100-120m.
Before you decide to do that you have to weigh it against how that affects negotiations with other guys you want to extend early. The Sox have usually made out well in those deals so once you give one player a lot more then it will possibly have a trickle down affect.
I'd look to sign Betts before Xander because of that.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 12, 2015 13:53:59 GMT -5
I would assume they'd like to get a few more years into the Hanley and Pablo and Porcello deals before adding Bogaert's inflated AAV into the luxury tax.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 12, 2015 14:27:45 GMT -5
It's worth looking at. If you can get a good deal sign him, but I am not ready to give him crazy money with 4 years of team control left. I would do a 6 year deal that started in 2017 for 100 million. You would get 3 extra year. Anything over that and I wait to see how his development goes.
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Post by Guidas on May 31, 2016 10:38:38 GMT -5
I think we had a thread last year on what it would cost to extend him to age 30 or so. Anyone want to guess given the Boras factor, and that the market is even more inflated than last year? If they're going to do it I really think it needs to be done before the 2017 season starts or Boras and Bogaerts will ride it out til free agency.
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okin15
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Post by okin15 on May 31, 2016 12:30:51 GMT -5
It's going to be really tough to agree on the right WAR to pay for, Boras will want 9 per year, while the Sox might want to pay for a lot fewer wins than that. Obviously the years of control, the potential for injury, the fact that guys this good don't usually get all that much better after Bogaerts age (see Williams, Harper, Trout) and the future cost of wins are all negotiations factors. It's probably just as easy to throw a number at this based on a very similar player (Trout) as to factor all those variables. If Trout got 144/6 going into his first year of Arbitration with obviously better numbers but two years ago, Bogaerts might expect to do about the same, maybe slightly worse. That would leave him with an AAV of $24 mil (worth about 23 mil in 2014 dollars). Perhaps the Sox can say "Bogaerts isn't quite Trout" and bring it down to an AAV of 22 or 23, but it's got to be at least in that range I think, or a Boras client probably is going to hold out. The only way it's even nearly that small is because he has three years of arbitration (as Trout did).
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