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Post by dcri on Nov 29, 2012 19:12:38 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 29, 2012 19:26:09 GMT -5
I clicked through to read nice things about Xander Bogaerts, but it turns out the whole article is available. So go read it even if you're not a BP subscriber.
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Post by hairps on Nov 30, 2012 9:21:59 GMT -5
What, specifically, are the questions about Owens' maturity level?
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Post by Chris Mellen on Nov 30, 2012 10:50:27 GMT -5
What, specifically, are the questions about Owens' maturity level? Present state of approach to the game, mound presence, and demeanor. I wouldn't read into anything further than what goes on between the lines of the baseball field. Various players are at different stages for being mature on the field, usually progressing as experience builds.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Nov 30, 2012 11:33:27 GMT -5
Brian Johnson at 10?
Best line of the article....
What Happened in 2012: After a long collegiate season, Johnson dipped his toes into the professional waters, logging just over five innings before taking a line drive to the face, fracturing his orbital bone and effectively ending his season.
Strengths: Strong face; lively low-90s fastball that can touch higher; good arm-side movement and feel for command; curveball shows above-average potential with tight rotation and some depth; changeup should play as a 5; good pitchability
Classic!
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Post by azblue on Nov 30, 2012 14:11:28 GMT -5
I have not seen a follow up on Johnson's recover since he was hurt. Has there been any news?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 30, 2012 14:36:37 GMT -5
Brian Johnson at 10? Best line of the article.... What Happened in 2012: After a long collegiate season, Johnson dipped his toes into the professional waters, logging just over five innings before taking a line drive to the face, fracturing his orbital bone and effectively ending his season. Strengths: Strong face; lively low-90s fastball that can touch higher; good arm-side movement and feel for command; curveball shows above-average potential with tight rotation and some depth; changeup should play as a 5; good pitchability Classic! I actually called Mellen on this and it actually was not intentional, at least as far as he knew.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 16:08:38 GMT -5
There was a whole big discussion on the BP Podcast about players who have strong faces. I think that the comment in part relates to that.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 30, 2012 16:11:05 GMT -5
What's that mean then (other than they can take a line drive of it pretty well)
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Post by patrmac04 on Nov 30, 2012 17:15:21 GMT -5
Brian Johnson at 10? Best line of the article.... What Happened in 2012: After a long collegiate season, Johnson dipped his toes into the professional waters, logging just over five innings before taking a line drive to the face, fracturing his orbital bone and effectively ending his season. Strengths: Strong face; lively low-90s fastball that can touch higher; good arm-side movement and feel for command; curveball shows above-average potential with tight rotation and some depth; changeup should play as a 5; good pitchability Classic! I found that amusing myself Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 18:08:59 GMT -5
brentz continues to fall on prospect rankings. this biggest factor is his plate discipline. he needs to walk more and strike out less. this is leading to less contact and power. he needs to improve his plate discipline and they sox need to help him with hit or he will never be an impact major leaguer
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Post by remember04 on Nov 30, 2012 18:56:30 GMT -5
brentz continues to fall on prospect rankings. this biggest factor is his plate discipline. he needs to walk more and strike out less. this is leading to less contact and power. he needs to improve his plate discipline and they sox need to help him with hit or he will never be an impact major leaguer I'm not saying you're wrong about his plate discipline but below is the list. Look at who is ahead of him and look at what they did for the most part this year. In the case of Swihart look at what his potential ceiling is. Is this a case of him dropping on the charts or of other players passing him? This also seems very ceiling based in terms of what criteria they use to judge players (based on Swihart being so high even though he didn't have a breakout year and is so young) and Brentz always had a nice but not outstanding ceiling. I have no problem with the ranking. That said if the team wanted him to focus more on discipline I think they would've moved him slower through the system and had him work on it more in the lower minors where pitchers have less control before promoting him up. You can try to teach it but some players just won't take to it. IF Xander Bogaerts CF Jackie Bradley RHP Matt Barnes RHP Allen Webster C Blake Swihart 3B Garin Cecchini LHP Henry Owens OF Bryce Brentz SS Jose Iglesias LHP Brian Johnson
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Post by jmei on Nov 30, 2012 20:47:48 GMT -5
Plate discipline isn't like math in that you just need to study hard and you'll get it eventually. You need great vision, lightning-fast reflexes, and superb fast-twitch muscles. It's something many players can improve on as they get older, but it's rarely about just changing your attitude and swinging at fewer pitches. If Brentz could identify fastballs in the zone early and only swing at those, he undoubtedly would.
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Post by elguapo on Nov 30, 2012 20:57:21 GMT -5
If Brentz could identify fastballs in the zone early and only swing at those, he undoubtedly would. Part of it is the process of learning and adjusting at each new level. AA pitchers were exploiting Brentz until he learned and adjusted, and he had a successful year overall. The question is how far those kind of adjustments can take him.
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Post by raftsox on Nov 30, 2012 23:02:44 GMT -5
The comments on Swihart are the most interesting to me: ~.270 average and 15 homers. When he was drafted, the narrative was that his bat would play in RF if he couldn't cut it as a C. Correct me it I'm wrong here, but I expect more out of a RF than .270 and 15 HRs. That's more like an acceptable CF line.
Is the prognosis that his hit tool is not as good as was once expected?
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Post by mainesox on Dec 1, 2012 0:03:15 GMT -5
Well, the average RF hit .260 with 18 home runs (600 PAs) last year, but I get what you're saying.
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Post by Chris Mellen on Dec 1, 2012 13:45:04 GMT -5
The first four players on this list were a slam dunk. You guys, as the hardcore followers and very knowledgable fans of this system, should be pretty excited about that. Above-average regulars to better, with the chance to start filtering up to the majors in the near-future. Its a very solid Top 4.
The 5-8 slots was where it got a little challenging to order and involved the deep thinking/analysis on everything we've seen and gotten for feedback during the year. I strongly backed Blake Swihart for the 5th slot, along with Nick Farelis who scouted Swihart heavily as an amateur. Nick does a lot of work on the amateur side and is very strong there. We both felt that based on what he saw pre-signing and what I scouted over the course of the season with Swihart that he was the guy for the 5th slot.
I was a big advocate of Brian Johnson and wanted him in that 10th slot. He's left-handed, has the size and frame, feels his stuff, and projects as a starter. I clocked the fastball up to 94 mph and he knows how to throw his secondary stuff for strikes. The evaluation and scouting write-up reflected that and where he stands.
Deven Marrero was in consideration for the Top 10, but there wasn't a strong committment presently from the group, myself included, to have him there yet. He went into the "On the Rise" section as he could be Top 10 next time through.
In regards to Bryce Brentz, I think there are some big questions there as to whether its going to translate at the major league level over the long haul. What I have scouted and written about in reports over the course of the season have spoken to that.
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Post by lloydbraun on Dec 1, 2012 18:12:43 GMT -5
Brentz may be gone, Cleveland?, by next weekend.
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Post by dcri on Dec 1, 2012 19:49:28 GMT -5
Chris, do you think there is any comparison between Brentz and Reddick, in this stage of development? There were many skeptics about Reddick and his approach. Even though he still displays some of the characteristics that concerned people, obviously, he has found a way to perform at a fairly elite level in the majors. What are the chances that Brentz develops the same way?
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 2, 2012 7:43:53 GMT -5
I was a big advocate of Brian Johnson and wanted him in that 10th slot. He's left-handed, has the size and frame, feels his stuff, and projects as a starter. I clocked the fastball up to 94 mph and he knows how to throw his secondary stuff for strikes. The evaluation and scouting write-up reflected that and where he stands. I'm with Mellen on this all the way. In fact, I could easily see an argument for Johnson being ahead of Owens due to the differences in probability of reaching their potentials. For some reason, Johnson got pigeonholed in that soft-tossing lefty profile around here, but he throws a solid fastball, plus he's got secondary pitches and knows how to pitch. He's one guy I think could move up the board next year. Where would Rubby end up on this list if he were still eligible? Gotta imagine he'd break into that top 4 somewhere ... but where?
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Post by remember04 on Dec 2, 2012 10:04:19 GMT -5
Where would Rubby end up on this list if he were still eligible? Gotta imagine he'd break into that top 4 somewhere ... but where? per the link Top 10 Talents 25 and Younger (born 4/1/1987 or later) Xander Bogaerts Will Middlebrooks Jackie Bradley Matt Barnes Rubby De La Rosa Allen Webster Blake Swihart Felix Doubront Garin Cecchini Henry Owens
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Post by Chris Mellen on Dec 2, 2012 11:04:09 GMT -5
You can read the list that remember04 posted as Rubby De La Rosa would have been ranked in the Top 5 if eligible. I put De La Rosa above Webster on that list because of the likelihood that he can close in the event that starting doesn't work out for the two of them. Webster more likely as a set-up man in my opinion. I put some value on that scenario. Obviously, I liked what I saw from Webster and the reports I received have been pretty intriguing on De La Rosa Chris, do you think there is any comparison between Brentz and Reddick, in this stage of development? There were many skeptics about Reddick and his approach. Even though he still displays some of the characteristics that concerned people, obviously, he has found a way to perform at a fairly elite level in the majors. What are the chances that Brentz develops the same way? Reddick was the better overall player and prospect at the same stages of his development than Brentz. They're similar in their needs, but how they get there is a lot different. Brentz has looked much more willing and understanding of what he has to do, but limited in how he sees the ball and the mechanics of his swing lead to a smaller hitting zone, along with constantly being so far out in front of the ball. The jury is still out on Reddick. His second half was very poor and it is hard to see him maintaining things as a regular over the long-haul with a .240, 150+ strikeout, low on-base profile. That either changes or he won't last as a regular long at the major league level. I don't think Brentz would be able to hold that profile for long in a regular role either. You may get a season like Reddick had, but over the long-haul of a career it points to fluctuations and volatility that sinks the year over year production indicative of average-to-better regulars.
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Post by jmei on Dec 2, 2012 11:46:41 GMT -5
Another big difference: Reddick is a plus fielder in RF with a cannon arm and good range. Brentz should be average defensively at best, with a good arm but limited range. Note that Reddick acquired a large portion of his WAR value from his defense and baserunning (2.2 of his 4.8 overall WAR), and isolating the offensive component, he'd only be a slightly above-average hitter as opposed to an elite one. Moreover, looking strictly at offense, Reddick wasn't all that different in 2012 (108 wRC+) than he was in 2011 (108 wRC+).
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Post by dcri on Dec 2, 2012 14:02:42 GMT -5
Thanks Chris and jmei, very good information. It will be interesting to see how both of these players perform in 2013, a critical year for them.
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Post by thegoo13 on Dec 3, 2012 16:04:01 GMT -5
Cody Kukuk. DUI last year and "off field issues" cost him some of his season.
Is he just a bit of a dopey young kid or are we dealing with a real jack ball here? Just curious on what you have heard about him because he sure didn't dissapoint when given a shot on the mound.
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