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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 10:16:41 GMT -5
The Red Sox have one of the top rated farm systems in all of baseball and have for the past few years, the MFY have a system that is rated mediocre at best.
But take a look at the records this year:
Sox Farms Teams MFY Farm Teams
AAA 41-60 55-47
AA 38-63 54-46
A+ 51-49 48-51
A 50-49 45-54
SS 17-18 Staten Is 19-15
n/a Pulaski 18-14
GCL 19-8 GCL-1 8-15
n/a GCL-2 12-14
DSL-1 16-32 33-15
DSL-2 34-14 28-20
TOTALS 266-293 .476 320-291 .524
In addition, season after season (recently) we hear about the demise of the MFY and the ascension of the Sox at the MLB level and yet for the past several seasons the Sox have under performed expectations (2013 being the very notable exception) while NY has outperformed them. While I certainly appreciate, and there is no disputing, the value of analytics particularly over the course of the long grind of the MLB season there is something else that is not being captured by statistics the MFY seem to have it and instill it, the Sox in recent years (post 2007) maybe not so much.
We see the Sox have problems with fundamentals like baserunning and remembering how many outs, things that should be extrememly rare on a well drilled and coached team. Some of that is due to the rawness of players like Betts and Swihart (one who moved so quickly through the minors and is learning a new position, one who circumstances forced up prematurely). I also seem to feel a lack of attitude, call it heart (or wa for the Japanese players) but something is lacking. The 20113 team was the exception. But why? New manager and relief from being out from under the crazy guy? More likely to me, the Marathon bombing was an event that brought the players together in a way that we often see people bond over adversity. That along with (or maybe inspriing) career years from Nava and Saltalamacchia, huge bounce back years from Napoli and Victorino, Papi putting the city in his back, Ellsbury playing for a payday(?) and Lester stepping up like almost never before led to a third championship in 10 years.
I know that many (most?) are going to say it's pop psychology and perhaps it is, but baseball has a lot to do with confidence and controlled emotions and focus and these mental habits and winning attitudes just appear to be things that the Sox of the past several seasons have lacked enough of and that the MFY seem to have in abundance,
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 26, 2015 10:21:29 GMT -5
Yankees farm = Journeymen
Our farm = top 3 in the sport
The record of our farm doesn't explain Sandoval and Hanley being two of the worst ten players in baseball this year.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 26, 2015 10:27:35 GMT -5
How many players on their active 25 man roster came from their farm system and how many are planned to become apart of it?
They are probably the luckiest of organizations in baseball who are constantly hitting on free agents and continue to strike lightning in a bottle. Remember Shawn Chacone and Aaron Small? How did their careers pan out after that run with the Yankees. Tanaka should have Tommy John and Pidena doesn't pitch for 3 seasons? No problem. A-rod misses a year and a half and is old? Still insanely valuable. Mark Teixeria has a history of injuries and has held up this season while Napoli looks toasted. It's maddening, but they seem to always find a way to get the most out of their players.
It wouldn't surprise me if next season Tanaka and Pidena are both knocked out and they have Sabathia return to form and Evoldai take that next step forward.
It hasn't been all roses for them though, they missed the playoffs the last two years as well. People keep forgetting this. I'd rather lose the way the Red Sox are than to have an entirely lost season by having an unprotected pick and then signing players.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 10:30:43 GMT -5
Yankees farm = Journeymen Our farm = top 3 in the sport The record of our farm doesn't explain Sandoval and Hanley being two of the worst ten players in baseball this year. I don't deny that and point out the Sox farm superior ranking, but you haven't addressed the issues raised. Hanley is an exemplar of one of the problems, Sandoval has proven himself in the post-season repeatedly but just not now - is it a need to adjust or lack of a winning environment perhaps he needs to excel. Yes they are pros, but they are also human beings, more is going on than can be captured on paper. |
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 10:31:50 GMT -5
How many players on their active 25 man roster came from their farm system and how many are planned to become apart of it? They are probably the luckiest of organizations in baseball who are constantly hitting on free agents and continue to strike lightning in a bottle. Remember Shawn Chacone and Aaron Small? How did their careers pan out after that run with the Yankees. Tanaka should have Tommy John and Pidena doesn't pitch for 3 seasons? No problem. A-rod misses a year and a half and is old? Still insanely valuable. Mark Teixeria has a history of injuries and has held up this season while Napoli looks toasted. It's maddening, but they seem to always find a way to get the most out of their players. It wouldn't surprise me if next season Tanaka and Pidena are both knocked out and they have Sabathia return to form and Evoldai take that next step forward. It hasn't been all roses for them though, they missed the playoffs the last two years as well. People keep forgetting this. I'd rather lose the way the Red Sox are than to have an entirely lost season by having an unprotected pick and then signing players. I agree that it's better to get all the losing out of the way and rebuild than muddle along but the point is the MFY seem to get more out of their talent more consistently than the Sox have and are doing so at the minor league level as well. And yes development is more important than winning in the minors, but in s sense winning is part of development. Also would mention that what you say about the Yankees getting lucky with players who are never as good after they leave...is what a lot of folks say about the Patriots where peolple credit Belichick, the system and the Patriot Way, i.e a winning attitude. |
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 26, 2015 11:31:10 GMT -5
I know this isn't really the point of the post, but saying that Red Sox are more analytically oriented than the Yankees is an outdated way of looking at things. The Yankees certainly have a larger analytics staff than the Red Sox do, and maybe a more analytically inclined GM. I'll take our ownership over theirs, but beyond that I would say we've fallen behind several teams in terms of aggressive analytics use.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 26, 2015 11:37:45 GMT -5
But you haven't addressed how many players on their 25 man roster is on the parent club and how many within the system are planned to be.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 26, 2015 11:49:03 GMT -5
I know this isn't really the point of the post, but saying that Red Sox are more analytically oriented than the Yankees is an outdated way of looking at things. The Yankees certainly have a larger analytics staff than the Red Sox do, and maybe a more analytically inclined GM. I'll take our ownership over theirs, but beyond that I would say we've fallen behind several teams in terms of aggressive analytics use. Absolutely agreed. The fact that we had to dig as far as to use time zone differences to explain the Sandoval signing should hint that we aren't that advanced. |
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 12:07:20 GMT -5
I know this isn't really the point of the post, but saying that Red Sox are more analytically oriented than the Yankees is an outdated way of looking at things. The Yankees certainly have a larger analytics staff than the Red Sox do, and maybe a more analytically inclined GM. I'll take our ownership over theirs, but beyond that I would say we've fallen behind several teams in terms of aggressive analytics use. I never dais that the Sox were more analytically oriented than the Yankees, in fact I have no idea whether or not that's the case nor do I care. What I'm saying is that the MFY seem to instill a culture of winning that seeps down through the minor league system so, at least this year, (not going to go back to suss out relative rankings and records) what I am saying is that they are doing better with purported less talent than the Sox and am suggesting a possible reason for that. Maybe it's organizational professionalism (and I'm not talking about the clean shaven bit though some could argue that point), I choose to call it a winning attitude and have pointed elsewhere that it's something that the Pats have as well. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 26, 2015 12:10:55 GMT -5
The Red Sox had a better organizational record in 2013 and 2014 though.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 12:12:52 GMT -5
But you haven't addressed how many players on their 25 man roster is on the parent club and how many within the system are planned to be. True, but I'm not arguing that the Yankees have a superior farm system in terms of talent, or that they will bring more minor league talent to the parent club. I am saying that they seem to have a way to get better baseball out of the talent they have no matter how acquired and recent years than the Sox with the glaring exception of 2013. And am asking why that is demonstrably the case along with offering one theory of a non analytical nature as to why. |
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 12:16:00 GMT -5
The Red Sox had a better organizational record in 2013 and 2014 though. Thanks for doing that research. Do you happen to know that relative rankings of the farm systems by the usual suspects, sometimes it can be a bit like primary presidential politics where the early key is to "outperform expectations"  |
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 26, 2015 12:21:49 GMT -5
Perhaps another element of this discussion would be how analytics are actually applied during games by the Sox and mfy (and Rays, Royals, Pirates, etc). For example, how many face-palm moments do their fans have that are equivalent to bringing in binkies like Craig Breslow in a 1-1 tie or an overused Koji or Juni in a 10-5 blowout, j. Gomes against RHP, sending Papi against Cespey's arm. Then we have the anti-binkie thing, like sitting JBJ for long stretches then sending him back down,staging Johnson's debut after a long periid of building up rust, pushing out XB for Drrew, letting Nava wilt.
In such ways improper use of analytics can lead to face-palm losses (and the players are fully cognizant of these gaffes) which certainly derail a "culture of winning". The Pats do have "it". The old Celtics were drenched in it. The mfy can't seem to lose it. From the first day I wondered if the instant personality cult of the 3-amigos (which automatically isolated Mike Napoli) would have a negative effect on the rest of the team. How would they model for XB and Mookie, and who would be excluded. I don't think its a stretch that this exlusive trinity has, on many levels, been devicive and counter-productive in the exact opposite manner of the cohesiveness of the 2013 band of bearded brothers. It is almost as if traditional team-first players like Pedey, Nap, XB, Mookie, Nava, Brockstar, have been, improbably, marginalized. If this continues so will losing ways.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 26, 2015 12:24:46 GMT -5
But you haven't addressed how many players on their 25 man roster is on the parent club and how many within the system are planned to be. True, but I'm not arguing that the Yankees have a superior farm system in terms of talent, or that they will bring more minor league talent to the parent club. I am saying that they seem to have a way to get better baseball out of the talent they have no matter how acquired and recent years than the Sox with the glaring exception of 2013. And am asking why that is demonstrably the case along with offering one theory of a non analytical nature as to why. But why would their minors records matter if none of the players are coming from it? |
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 26, 2015 12:25:32 GMT -5
Not handy. I do know that the Diamondbacks had the second-best organizational record last year, despite having a below-average rated system, and they stunk both last year and this. While the Phillies had the worst organizational record, the worst rated farm system, and are this season's worst team. The Royals had the second-worst organizational record last year, a well-rated system, and they are probably my World Series favorites.
So at a cursory glance, it doesn't seem like there is too much to this theory.
I know we're looking for reasons the major league team has performed below expectations this year, but the records of their minor league teams this year isn't it.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 12:26:50 GMT -5
Perhaps another element of this discussion would be how analytics are actually applied during games by the Sox and mfy (and Rays, Royals, Pirates, etc). For example, how many face-palm moments do their fans have that are equivalent to bringing in binkies like Craig Breslow in a 1-1 tie or an overused Koji or Juni in a 10-5 blowout, j. Gomes against RHP, sending Papi against Cespey's arm. Then we have the anti-binkie thing, like sitting JBJ for long stretches then sending him back down,staging Johnson's debut after a long periid of building up rust, pushing out XB for Drrew, letting Nava wilt. In such ways improper use of analytics can lead to face-palm losses (and the players are fully cognizant of these gaffes) which certainly derail a "culture of winning". The Pats do have "it". The old Celtics were drenched in it. The mfy can't seem to lose it. From the first day I wondered if the instant personality cult of the 3-amigos (which automatically isolated Mike Napoli) would have a negative effect on the rest of the team. How would they model for XB and Mookie, and who would be excluded. I don't think its a stretch that this exlusive trinity has, on many levels, been devicive and counter-productive in the exact opposite manner of the cohesiveness of the 2013 band of bearded brothers. It is almost as if traditional team-first players like Pedey, Nap, XB, Mookie, Nava, Brockstar, have been, improbably, marginalized. If this continues so will losing ways. Agree with almost all of this Gerry. Especially the part about not using talent properly to win at the MLB level. I don't know if this extends to the minors where at least player development is a valid reason to not always do the optimal analytical thing. Farrell is certainly very weak on tactics and best use of personnel and perhaps that is the biggest reason why at the MLB level the MFy are outperforming the Sox. |
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Post by dridiot on Jul 26, 2015 12:29:34 GMT -5
I agree that analytics can't explain everything. However, I think "heart" explains even less -- not because I think what it's trying to describe isn't there, but because it's hopelessly vague. It's so vague you can't even really argue with it other than to ask for something more specific. For example, is the manager not motivating his players? Do the players hate each other? Is AJ Peirzynski on your team? Without something more specific, it's really hard to talk about it.
I disagree that the Yankees are doing well because of a "winning attitude." How many years of terrible A-Rod have they had to put up with until this season? Terrible Teixiera? Mediocre Sabathia? AJ Burnett never really worked out. The Yankees have a payroll large enough to absorb multiple bad contracts. The Yankees also made some good trades: Montero for Pineda was a knockout, signing Tanaka instead of Dice-K (I know it's not exactly like that -- of course they weren't available at the same time).
Also, I disagree the Pats win because they have a "winning attitude." I think Bill Belichick just outsmarts everyone, and it's partly also because he's totally unsentimental about the team. I think the Pats lost some Super Bowls due to bad luck (vs. Giants) and won some due to good luck (tuck rule, last year). I would say the "Patriots Way" is less about a "winning attitude" than Belichick's total businesslike approach to the sport.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 26, 2015 12:30:50 GMT -5
John Farrell doing a poor job strategically has nothing to do with Portland having a worse record than Trenton.
The reason the Yankees are playing better than the Red Sox is because all of the Yankees are playing well and all of the Red Sox are playing badly. The Yankees are actually having a season pretty similar to the 2013 Red Sox. Essentially everything is going right for them. Sabathia and Gregorius are disappointments I guess but everything else they've done has worked much better than they could've realistically expected.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2015 12:45:05 GMT -5
So is the moral of the story that they should hold prospects back and sign more career minor leaguers at all levels so they can win more games?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 12:56:16 GMT -5
So is the moral of the story that they should hold prospects back and sign more career minor leaguers at all levels so they can win more games? 
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 26, 2015 12:59:33 GMT -5
So is the moral of the story that they should hold prospects back and sign more career minor leaguers at all levels so they can win more games?
But... what are you getting at? The idea that Alex Rodriguez single-handedly won yesterday's game by hitting three homers is directly related to the "organizational culture" that influences the Charleston RiverDogs winning percentage doesn't really mean anything, does it? There has to be something that causes that "culture" to become a winning one. Without that, it's just a nonsensical way of trying to tie winning to something other than talent. The Yankees haven't done well organizationally the last two years, they put the Jeter retirement tour above their own ability to win last year, and the biggest reason they are good this year is because Alex Rodriguez is fresh after a year-long steroid suspension. If that's how you're going to define "culture of winning" you're going to get a lot of pushback. |
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jul 26, 2015 16:23:15 GMT -5
fixing the Sox is not going to be an easy task IMO. I know that there will be some here that will scoff at my suggestions, but when Theo first came to the organization, his first idea was to build the farm system into a winning formula after so many years of losing teams in the minors so the players would know what winning was all about. He was successful in that undertaking and it brought many winning teams to Boston. Look at the farm now. Pawtucket and Portland are very low in the standings with Salem and greenville just above 500 and Lowell, which started out fantastic, slipping under 500 now. The only teams performing well are the GCL and DSL2 which are very low minors. It goes to show that as the players go up there is a drop-off in talent going forward. Losing begets losing and Theo filled in where necessary to keep teams on a winning path. I don't see any of that now. I know some will say it isn't the team necessarily that is important, but that the individual players be developed going forward. That is valid to some extent as the minors shouldn't be looked at for championship teams every year with movement of players up and down changing the landscape, but I can't help but feel that the losing part is detrimental to the development of players. Just my thoughts on the subject. Sling the arrows now.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 26, 2015 16:49:07 GMT -5
fixing the Sox is not going to be an easy task IMO. I know that there will be some here that will scoff at my suggestions, but when Theo first came to the organization, his first idea was to build the farm system into a winning formula after so many years of losing teams in the minors so the players would know what winning was all about. He was successful in that undertaking and it brought many winning teams to Boston. Look at the farm now. Pawtucket and Portland are very low in the standings with Salem and greenville just above 500 and Lowell, which started out fantastic, slipping under 500 now. The only teams performing well are the GCL and DSL2 which are very low minors. It goes to show that as the players go up there is a drop-off in talent going forward. Losing begets losing and Theo filled in where necessary to keep teams on a winning path. I don't see any of that now. I know some will say it isn't the team necessarily that is important, but that the individual players be developed going forward. That is valid to some extent as the minors shouldn't be looked at for championship teams every year with movement of players up and down changing the landscape, but I can't help but feel that the losing part is detrimental to the development of players. Just my thoughts on the subject. Sling the arrows now. No arrows from me. I agree with you and probably go a step further. Maybe the Sox push guys ahead faster than other organizations and this leads to poor team records or maybe we don't add "organizational guys" enough to help out...don't know....but if not and if we truly have a lot of talent in the minors, then the rest of our squads must be horrible. I was excited when I saw Pawtucket take off and be regarded as perhaps the best minor league team in baseball, excited when I saw Salem and Greenville do so well starting out and excited when I saw Lowell at 10-1. All those teams have since tanked. I have not totaled our won/loss records but I suspect that we are below the organizational Mendoza line....perhaps a 44% winning record...much like the parent club. I would be interested to see what each stateside club has done starting May 1. I am guessing that the results would be shocking to most. My point is that at some juncture records do reflect overall talent at respective levels. |
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 26, 2015 17:11:33 GMT -5
congusgambler33 I also support what you wrote. I wrote something similar a while again and was castigated for it. But it really makes sense in all sorts of ways.
The great Baltimore Orioles teams of the 60s and 70s were built upon what was called "The Oriole Way." The entire minor league system was organized to teach "The Oriole Way." It was how to play the game right, in every aspect. Every coach at every level taught it. Their minors produced a number of their great stars and also gave them trading chips. The entire organization had a winning attitude. Every player knew what was expected of him. I covered the Orioles for UPI during some of those years and they were fun. There was a great attitude that penetrated the organization.
Then the famous lawyer Edward Bennett Williams bought the Orioles and since he was dying of cancer he instituted a "win now" philosophy. That was when they started doing more trades for established, and even somewhat over the hill players, often giving up good prospects. Their minor leagues deteriorated. As a result they went through a very dark period. The Oriole way was long gone. It only has been the last several years that they have begun to generate talent again from their minors.
From what I have read, mostly on this site, the Sox have a sophisticated system of managing their minors. Every player has a development plan upon which he is judged. There are certain milestones set for players. And the plan includes such things as physical conditioning, weight and diet. I think the reason why some players seem to be promoted over others who seem more deserving is that the promoted players met their goals and the ones not promoted had not met theirs - and the goals might be very different. I think the Sox approach differs from the Oriole approach because it is much more personalized and maybe, and I am not sure of this, not as oriented to a "team" approach, a "Red Sox way," of sorts.
I don't get the impression that a lot of weight is put on the minor league team records. I understand that, but I do believe that winning is a habit and learning how to win under many different circumstances is important.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 26, 2015 17:15:06 GMT -5
jmei, I see there is a new thread, culture of winning. You might considering moving the last three posts to that thread. They fit right in!
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