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7/27-7/30 Red Sox vs. White Sox Series Thread
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 27, 2015 20:19:39 GMT -5
Last out at 3rd — ouch! Big no no, but par for the 2015 Sox.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 27, 2015 20:31:19 GMT -5
CAN'T THIS TEAM TAKE BACK A LEAD AND HAVE THE PITCHING STAFF HOLD IT JUST ONCE!?! EVAH!?!
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Post by Guidas on Jul 27, 2015 20:59:50 GMT -5
Mediocre starters, a substandard pen in front of the team that couldn't field well and you all laughed at me when I said in March that 84 games was my best outcome scenario. Hell, I should've been laughing. This team will be lucky to get 74 wins giving back leads like this all year. Just putrid.
Help us Papi Juan Ortzi - you're our only hope.
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Post by redsox4242 on Jul 27, 2015 20:59:53 GMT -5
I guess Farrell wants to get fired, how can you let Robbie Ross blow the game twice?
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2015 21:11:45 GMT -5
Sorry, there is no evidence you can give me to make me believe Joe Kelly is a major league starter. He is Allen Webster with three fewer pitches and less ball movement. Counterpoint: 407.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.12 xFIP
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Post by redsox4242 on Jul 27, 2015 21:17:15 GMT -5
Sorry, there is no evidence you can give me to make me believe Joe Kelly is a major league starter. He is Allen Webster with three fewer pitches and less ball movement. But he throws 98 mph!!!
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 27, 2015 21:19:48 GMT -5
Sorry, there is no evidence you can give me to make me believe Joe Kelly is a major league starter. He is Allen Webster with three fewer pitches and less ball movement. Counterpoint: 407.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.12 xFIP As a starter it's 354.2 IP, 3.96 ERA, 4.25 FIP and 4.19 xFIP, still a good point. Kelly's potential as a starter is tantalizing, which makes it so frustrating how bad he's been here.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 27, 2015 21:21:17 GMT -5
Sorry, there is no evidence you can give me to make me believe Joe Kelly is a major league starter. He is Allen Webster with three fewer pitches and less ball movement. Counterpoint: 407.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.12 xFIP You should be his agent. You'd get 10% off the top of his deal jsut for serving up those buckets of stats, especially if you find a buyer who pays you saying, "Well his games don't look or smell like a #3's work, but I guess the numbers don't lie..."
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 27, 2015 21:30:43 GMT -5
Sorry, there is no evidence you can give me to make me believe Joe Kelly is a major league starter. He is Allen Webster with three fewer pitches and less ball movement. Counterpoint: 407.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.12 xFIP ...and a whopping 1.1 fWAR/200 IP. These days, those numbers just aren't very good for a guy who has spent most of his career in the NL. Is he as bad as his ERA suggests this year? No. Is he a guy that should be pitching every 5th day for a contender? Right now, he's not.
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2015 21:56:36 GMT -5
Counterpoint: 407.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.12 xFIP ...and a whopping 1.1 fWAR/200 IP. These days, those numbers just aren't very good for a guy who has spent most of his career in the NL. Is he as bad as his ERA suggests this year? No. Is he a guy that should be pitching every 5th day for a contender? Right now, he's not. Fair enough. The Red Sox aren't exactly a contender, though, and you'd be hard-pressed to argue that he has less upside (not just in terms of ceiling, but realistic potential to be a useful major league starter) than, say, Steven Wright.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 27, 2015 22:09:16 GMT -5
Well, thanks to that late run we'll get to hear JF tell us post game about all the fight in this club. "Again, we saw it tonight," he'll say. After listening to him again marvel at his team's resilience, I'll wonder how they ever lose.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 27, 2015 22:55:04 GMT -5
Counterpoint: 407.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.12 xFIP You should be his agent. You'd get 10% off the top of his deal jsut for serving up those buckets of stats, especially if you find a buyer who pays you saying, "Well his games don't look or smell like a #3's work, but I guess the numbers don't lie..." I sleep better at night knowing our sucky pitchers have a better FIP than they are really throwing.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2015 7:37:07 GMT -5
Counterpoint: 407.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.12 xFIP As a starter it's 354.2 IP, 3.96 ERA, 4.25 FIP and 4.19 xFIP, still a good point. Kelly's potential as a starter is tantalizing, which makes it so frustrating how bad he's been here. Sub out Allen Webster and look at last year's threads. If he's a reclamation project this is not the organization that excells at this type of thing.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 28, 2015 7:50:15 GMT -5
Since the start of 2013, Allen Webster has a 6.40 ERA which is worst in baseball among pitchers with 100 innings over that span. His 5.64 FIP is second-worst, behind Andre Rienzo. Heck, Webster's Triple-A ERA this year is 9.55! Whether you want to compare overall results or underlying peripherals there is really no way to say Kelly is on any level nearly as bad as Webster.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2015 8:07:50 GMT -5
Since the start of 2013, Allen Webster has a 6.40 ERA which is worst in baseball among pitchers with 100 innings over that span. His 5.64 FIP is second-worst, behind Andre Rienzo. Heck, Webster's Triple-A ERA this year is 9.55! Whether you want to compare overall results or underlying peripherals there is really no way to say Kelly is on any level nearly as bad as Webster. OK, so Webster is a #7 starter and Kelly is a #6. The fact remains Kelly, like Webster has, tantalizing stuff - although Kelly's a two-pitch pitcher (or a 1 1/2 pitch pitcher) whereas Webster was a 4 or even 5 pitch pitcher. But if you go back and read the comments of their supporters they are nearly identical. Yet, except for outlier performances, neither has been able to demonstrate the consistent ability to be a major league starter for a sustained period of time. Also, this is not an organization that has a reputation of "fixing" pitchers, at least not in, say, the last several years. MLB's landscape is littered with Joe Kelly and Allen Websters - guys who had a world of potential but cannot, for whatever reason, harness it enough to be average never mind good. MLB bullpens are filled with these guys. So is AAA. Sure, every 20 years someone can fix one of these guys and you get Randy Johnson. But more often you get David Aardsma, or worse. Maybe someone can fix him, but does anyone have any evidence that this is an organization that can do this? Joe Kelly as a starter is fool's gold. His best bet is the pen, and even then with that flat fastball, you have to pray he doesn't grove one or walk the park.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 28, 2015 8:35:03 GMT -5
Its amazing how bad the Lackey trade was.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 28, 2015 8:37:51 GMT -5
If Joe Kelly moves to the pen with success, the trade could still work out for the Red Sox. Not like Lackey would have been the difference on this team anyways.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2015 8:44:00 GMT -5
Yet, except for outlier performances, neither has been able to demonstrate the consistent ability to be a major league starter for a sustained period of time. That's just not true, though. As noted upthread, Kelly has a career 354.2 IP of 3.96 ERA performance as a starting pitcher. Most of that came in a pitcher's park in the NL, so it's not great, but that's still fifth-starter-quality performance. He has been miles better than Webster. More importantly, even if there's only a 10% chance that Kelly is any better than this, those odds are good enough for him to keep a rotation spot for a non-contending team without an obviously superior rotation candidate. The other possibilities are Owens (needs to consolidate his control improvement in AAA) and Wright (lack of upside), neither of which I'm particularly inclined to play over Kelly.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 28, 2015 9:10:57 GMT -5
That's just not true, though. As noted upthread, Kelly has a career 354.2 IP of 3.96 ERA performance as a starting pitcher. Most of that came in a pitcher's park in the NL, so it's not great, but that's still fifth-starter-quality performance. He has been miles better than Webster. More importantly, even if there's only a 10% chance that Kelly is any better than this, those odds are good enough for him to keep a rotation spot for a non-contending team without an obviously superior rotation candidate. The other possibilities are Owens (needs to consolidate his control improvement in AAA) and Wright (lack of upside), neither of which I'm particularly inclined to play over Kelly. While you have remained consistent throughout about Kelly's potential, you are now moving the goalposts by claiming that there aren't better options for this team, given their place in the standings, so we should keep trotting him out there. It's a specious argument.
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Post by thegoo13 on Jul 28, 2015 9:53:17 GMT -5
That's just not true, though. As noted upthread, Kelly has a career 354.2 IP of 3.96 ERA performance as a starting pitcher. Most of that came in a pitcher's park in the NL, so it's not great, but that's still fifth-starter-quality performance. He has been miles better than Webster. More importantly, even if there's only a 10% chance that Kelly is any better than this, those odds are good enough for him to keep a rotation spot for a non-contending team without an obviously superior rotation candidate. The other possibilities are Owens (needs to consolidate his control improvement in AAA) and Wright (lack of upside), neither of which I'm particularly inclined to play over Kelly. While you have remained consistent throughout about Kelly's potential, you are now moving the goalposts by claiming that there aren't better options for this team, given their place in the standings, so we should keep trotting him out there. It's a specious argument. I don't get it. You can argue Joe Kelly is better than Allan Webster but so what. Joe Kelly walks to many batters, doesn't miss enough bats and gives up too many HR's to be an effective pitcher. You can apply whatever metric you want to make the results more palatable but in the end he is not just ineffective he is really really bad. He may have great stuff, and maybe can pull it together in the pen, but he has killed this team all year long. I don't think it is overstating the obvious when I say we have seen enough of him starting games for this team. Bring on Owens and Johnson.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2015 10:48:47 GMT -5
That's just not true, though. As noted upthread, Kelly has a career 354.2 IP of 3.96 ERA performance as a starting pitcher. Most of that came in a pitcher's park in the NL, so it's not great, but that's still fifth-starter-quality performance. He has been miles better than Webster. More importantly, even if there's only a 10% chance that Kelly is any better than this, those odds are good enough for him to keep a rotation spot for a non-contending team without an obviously superior rotation candidate. The other possibilities are Owens (needs to consolidate his control improvement in AAA) and Wright (lack of upside), neither of which I'm particularly inclined to play over Kelly. While you have remained consistent throughout about Kelly's potential, you are now moving the goalposts by claiming that there aren't better options for this team, given their place in the standings, so we should keep trotting him out there. It's a specious argument. That's been my argument all along. I have never argued that he's a stud who should be guaranteed a rotation spot, and I've been calling him a present-day back-end starter ever since he was acquired. That's the kind of guy you play if you don't have any better options and bench (or send to the bullpen) if you do.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 28, 2015 10:53:50 GMT -5
While you have remained consistent throughout about Kelly's potential, you are now moving the goalposts by claiming that there aren't better options for this team, given their place in the standings, so we should keep trotting him out there. It's a specious argument. That's been my argument all along. I have never argued that he's a stud who should be guaranteed a rotation spot, and I've been calling him a present-day back-end starter ever since he was acquired. That's the kind of guy you play if you don't have any better options and bench (or send to the bullpen) if you do. At this point Owens and Johnson are making pretty strong cases for being better options.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2015 10:58:57 GMT -5
Joe Kelly walks to many batters, doesn't miss enough bats and gives up too many HR's to be an effective pitcher. You can apply whatever metric you want to make the results more palatable but in the end he is not just ineffective he is really really bad. Worth noting: Kelly is at or near career-bests in first strike percentage, zone rate, and swinging strike percentage this year. He's got a 4.18 SIERA and a 7.34 K/9 in 2015, which are career-bests. Also worth noting: Clay Buchholz, through his first five starts, had a 6.03 ERA but a 2.91 FIP and a 2.96 xFIP. In his next twelve starts, he had a 2.20 ERA, a 2.49 FIP, and a 3.25 xFIP. Dismiss advanced stats at your own risk.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2015 11:01:18 GMT -5
That's been my argument all along. I have never argued that he's a stud who should be guaranteed a rotation spot, and I've been calling him a present-day back-end starter ever since he was acquired. That's the kind of guy you play if you don't have any better options and bench (or send to the bullpen) if you do. At this point Owens and Johnson are making pretty strong cases for being better options. For some reason I thought Johnson was already in the rotation. Even so, he should really be taking Wright's rotation spot. I can see preferring Owens to Kelly, but I don't think it's a slam dunk that Owens should be ahead of him in the pecking order.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jul 28, 2015 11:37:07 GMT -5
Joe Kelly walks to many batters, doesn't miss enough bats and gives up too many HR's to be an effective pitcher. You can apply whatever metric you want to make the results more palatable but in the end he is not just ineffective he is really really bad. Worth noting: Kelly is at or near career-bests in first strike percentage, zone rate, and swinging strike percentage this year. He's got a 4.18 SIERA and a 7.34 K/9 in 2015, which are career-bests. Also worth noting: Clay Buchholz, through his first five starts, had a 6.03 ERA but a 2.91 FIP and a 2.96 xFIP. In his next twelve starts, he had a 2.20 ERA, a 2.49 FIP, and a 3.25 xFIP. Dismiss advanced stats at your own risk. Advanced stats at what put this team together
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