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7/27-7/30 Red Sox vs. White Sox Series Thread
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 28, 2015 11:47:10 GMT -5
Worth noting: Kelly is at or near career-bests in first strike percentage, zone rate, and swinging strike percentage this year. He's got a 4.18 SIERA and a 7.34 K/9 in 2015, which are career-bests. Also worth noting: Clay Buchholz, through his first five starts, had a 6.03 ERA but a 2.91 FIP and a 2.96 xFIP. In his next twelve starts, he had a 2.20 ERA, a 2.49 FIP, and a 3.25 xFIP. Dismiss advanced stats at your own risk. Advanced stats at what put this team together Nobody claims they're infallible, but if you take the blinders off, they are the most predictive measures we have. This isn't a new thing. If you look at the correlation year to year between pitchers' FIP and ERA, it's stronger than ERA year to year. So sure, you can screw up if you disregard everything else, but just because the front office relies in part on advanced metrics doesn't mean they're wrong. Every team uses these stats to some extent, many more than the Sox. In short, that's a terribly weak argument
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 28, 2015 11:51:50 GMT -5
While you have remained consistent throughout about Kelly's potential, you are now moving the goalposts by claiming that there aren't better options for this team, given their place in the standings, so we should keep trotting him out there. It's a specious argument. That's been my argument all along. I have never argued that he's a stud who should be guaranteed a rotation spot, and I've been calling him a present-day back-end starter ever since he was acquired. That's the kind of guy you play if you don't have any better options and bench (or send to the bullpen) if you do. Thats' fair. But without giving other people his innings, you won't be able to make an informed decision about his role on the staff. I think a move to the bullpen in the next couple of weeks a necessary move, even if does makes some good starts. Let's let everyone audition and get their fair shot for 2016. What's wrong with a 6 man rotation right now?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2015 11:56:18 GMT -5
That's just not true, though. As noted upthread, Kelly has a career 354.2 IP of 3.96 ERA performance as a starting pitcher. Most of that came in a pitcher's park in the NL, so it's not great, but that's still fifth-starter-quality performance. He has been miles better than Webster. More importantly, even if there's only a 10% chance that Kelly is any better than this, those odds are good enough for him to keep a rotation spot for a non-contending team without an obviously superior rotation candidate. The other possibilities are Owens (needs to consolidate his control improvement in AAA) and Wright (lack of upside), neither of which I'm particularly inclined to play over Kelly. While you have remained consistent throughout about Kelly's potential, you are now moving the goalposts by claiming that there aren't better options for this team, given their place in the standings, so we should keep trotting him out there. It's a specious argument. How about his combined WAR in the last 3 years is 1.4? Unspecious enough? He's lousy. He's no one I would want as a starter unless you want a guaranteed loss 3 out of every 4 starts. Also I don't see how an 89% chance of failure at the MLB level are good enough odds to keep a starter in the rotation. He does not give this team a chance to win the vast bulk of his starts. Let someone else dream on him and watch him consistently give up 3 or 4 runs early in almost every game he pitches. Sure, go ahead and pitch him this year since all he'll do is increase the odds of a higher draft pick. But he has no role on a team that aspires to win, especially one that thought (somehow) it was fielding 5 #3 starters this year (or better). You'd need two 2s and 2 threes to make up for the suck that Kelly, and Wright for that matter, bring to this team. Or a pen that is near lock down from the 6th inning on. That or you're conceding a loss on the vast majority of his starts. No thank you.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 28, 2015 12:05:17 GMT -5
Is R.A. Dickey level performance not good enough for you or is there something Dickey does that you think Wright can't realistically do?
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Post by terriblehondo on Jul 28, 2015 12:08:06 GMT -5
Advanced stats at what put this team together Nobody claims they're infallible, but if you take the blinders off, they are the most predictive measures we have. This isn't a new thing. If you look at the correlation year to year between pitchers' FIP and ERA, it's stronger than ERA year to year. So sure, you can screw up if you disregard everything else, but just because the front office relies in part on advanced metrics doesn't mean they're wrong. Every team uses these stats to some extent, many more than the Sox. In short, that's a terribly weak argument Yes you are probably right it is a weak argument. I just get tired of hearing advanced stats guys preach like it is the be all and end all. The only stat I care about is Wins. That and when I watch the game that it is played well. So the Red Sox have made this season a joke.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2015 12:09:05 GMT -5
While you have remained consistent throughout about Kelly's potential, you are now moving the goalposts by claiming that there aren't better options for this team, given their place in the standings, so we should keep trotting him out there. It's a specious argument. That's been my argument all along. I have never argued that he's a stud who should be guaranteed a rotation spot, and I've been calling him a present-day back-end starter ever since he was acquired. That's the kind of guy you play if you don't have any better options and bench (or send to the bullpen) if you do. And my argument all along, since July 31, 2014, is this was and remains a very bad trade, that Kelly is awful and has no place starting on a team that aspires to win. Yet, a lot of people here have been talking for almost a year on how good Kelly could be - or actually is - but the end results, despite the advanced stats are, more often than not, failure. But ok, if you are right then about every GM in baseball not named Amaro should be agreeing with you wholeheartedly and about 20 of them should be lining up to get this valuable innings-eater #5 type, right? He's the next Pascal Perez or Tomo Ohka only with fewer pitches and less control - get him while he's hot. Or steaming, at least.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2015 12:13:09 GMT -5
Is R.A. Dickey level performance not good enough for you or is there something Dickey does that you think Wright can't realistically do? Have a positive WAR as a starter? Give his team a chance to win games? Just because he throws a knuckler doesn't mean he's Dickey or Wakefield. Wright should be a pen arm
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2015 12:15:54 GMT -5
Worth noting: Kelly is at or near career-bests in first strike percentage, zone rate, and swinging strike percentage this year. He's got a 4.18 SIERA and a 7.34 K/9 in 2015, which are career-bests. Also worth noting: Clay Buchholz, through his first five starts, had a 6.03 ERA but a 2.91 FIP and a 2.96 xFIP. In his next twelve starts, he had a 2.20 ERA, a 2.49 FIP, and a 3.25 xFIP. Dismiss advanced stats at your own risk. Advanced stats at what put this team together
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 28, 2015 12:16:13 GMT -5
I was a believer in Kelly. I liked his stuff, his age, and his potential. However, it is clear to me that he isn't the pitcher I thought he was. I don't know now whether he can become that pitcher. Almost certainly he does not belong in the rotation at this time.
I think Kelly probably should go back to Pawtucket and work out of the bullpen. Owen and Johnson should be given cracks at the rotation.
However, that all could change by the end of this week.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2015 12:25:08 GMT -5
While you have remained consistent throughout about Kelly's potential, you are now moving the goalposts by claiming that there aren't better options for this team, given their place in the standings, so we should keep trotting him out there. It's a specious argument. How about his combined WAR in the last 3 years is 1.4? Unspecious enough? He's lousy. He's no one I would want as a starter unless you want a guaranteed loss 3 out of every 4 starts. Also I don't see how an 89% chance of failure at the MLB level are good enough odds to keep a starter in the rotation. He does not give this team a chance to win the vast bulk of his starts. Let someone else dream on him and watch him consistently give up 3 or 4 runs early in almost every game he pitches. That's a prorated 1.0 WAR per 200 innings over those three years, which, as we've already discussed, is not great but also is not unplayably bad and is well within fifth starter territory. It's not that he has a 10% chance of being good and a 90% chance of failure. It's more that he has a 10% chance of being an above-average starter, a 20% chance of being an average starter, a 40% chance of being his current below-average but above-replacement-level self, and a 30% chance of being replacement-level-or-worse. Something like those odds are good enough for me to keep him in the rotation.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2015 12:39:23 GMT -5
Advanced stats at what put this team together I will admit I have some prejudices here against 2-pitch pitchers, who are outliers when it comes to success as starters (but who often make great relievers). I think Kelly could be Dan Wheeler-type if he was put in the pen full time. I also don't like knucklers, who, in general I find almost unbearable to watch. If there was such a great chance of being R.A. Dickey or Tim Wakefield every team would be developing multiple knucklers or at the very least teaching the pitch to more of their starters, especially with the rash of arm injuries. But guys like Wakefield et al are extreme outliers, as well. I have no issue with advanced stats, and I look at them whenever I evaluate a guy but they're not everything. Human beings play the game and scouting has an equal role. Whenever I've talked to scouts about pitching they discuss repeatability of the motion, mechanics, command and control, strike-throwing ability, control of the game's flow and how well (or not) the pitcher works with his catcher. But they have also told me these things manifest themselves in a variety of ways. One of the best I ever spoke to said, "Look, does the guy hit the mitt no matter where the catcher puts it? Does he throw strikes with his off-speed stuff? And how do batters react to his breaking pitches? How many pitches does he have and how does he mix them? Are guys sitting on one of his pitches because they can get to it, or on location because he doesn't mix it up enough, or both? These can tell you what's inbetween a guy's stat sheet." I've seen Kelly's potential in his numbers, but I've seen the guy pitch live several times. He doesn't hit the mitt, his breaking pitch is virtually show me most of the time, and his fastball, even with the velo and the PitchFx saying it has some break to it, plays flat more often than not. t think he's a reliever. Ben got him thinking he was a starter. He's not and I don't think this team has the ability to coach him into one. Sure, run him out there if you're waving the white flag. But I hate waving the white flag, too.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2015 12:40:50 GMT -5
How about his combined WAR in the last 3 years is 1.4? Unspecious enough? He's lousy. He's no one I would want as a starter unless you want a guaranteed loss 3 out of every 4 starts. Also I don't see how an 89% chance of failure at the MLB level are good enough odds to keep a starter in the rotation. He does not give this team a chance to win the vast bulk of his starts. Let someone else dream on him and watch him consistently give up 3 or 4 runs early in almost every game he pitches. That's a prorated 1.0 WAR per 200 innings over those three years, which, as we've already discussed, is not great but also is not unplayably bad and is well within fifth starter territory. It's not that he has a 10% chance of being good and a 90% chance of failure. It's more that he has a 10% chance of being an above-average starter, a 20% chance of being an average starter, a 40% chance of being his current below-average but above-replacement-level self, and a 30% chance of being replacement-level-or-worse. Something like those odds are good enough for me to keep him in the rotation. Sweet. Friedman needs one of these. A high value target. The Jake Peavy for their title run. You think they can get an Iglesias and Montas for him?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 28, 2015 12:44:40 GMT -5
That's a prorated 1.0 WAR per 200 innings over those three years, which, as we've already discussed, is not great but also is not unplayably bad and is well within fifth starter territory. It's not that he has a 10% chance of being good and a 90% chance of failure. It's more that he has a 10% chance of being an above-average starter, a 20% chance of being an average starter, a 40% chance of being his current below-average but above-replacement-level self, and a 30% chance of being replacement-level-or-worse. Something like those odds are good enough for me to keep him in the rotation. Sweet. Friedman needs one of these. A high value target. The Jake Peavy for their title run. You think they can get an Iglesias and Montas for him? That's a ridiculous comparison and you know that.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2015 12:46:23 GMT -5
When Peavy was traded, he was coming off a 4.2 fWAR season the previous year and was on pace for a 2.5 win season. One win players are just not very valuable. Think more Erik Bedard circa 2011. Bedard was having a better season in 2011 than I thought. So I guess think more Paul Byrd or Jake Peavy circa 2014.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2015 13:25:18 GMT -5
Sweet. Friedman needs one of these. A high value target. The Jake Peavy for their title run. You think they can get an Iglesias and Montas for him? That's a ridiculous comparison and you know that. Of course I do. But hey, the value of a 5th starter (if that's what people think he is) is established so go get that and get him off a team that says they want to win. If he's going to start he should do so in the NL, anyway, where he gets 3 free outs (if he gets into the 6th (unless he's facing the Mets vs. de Groom or the Giants vs. Bumgarner) to help his stats and outcome potential. ADDED: But barring legit 5th starter return, I am not adverse to keeping him if they stick him in the pen and just the pen. I do think he could be an effective reliever. There the two pitches may serve him better. If he can throw strikes.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jul 28, 2015 14:12:24 GMT -5
Sox claimed Jean Machi off waivers from the Giants. He has had a bad season, but is coming off two solid seasons out of the pen for San Francisco.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2015 14:54:08 GMT -5
Sox claimed Jean Machi off waivers from the Giants. He has had a bad season, but is coming off two solid seasons out of the pen for San Francisco. Nice little pickup. They need middle relievers, and Machi could at least compete for a spot. Moves like this are key to building a strong, deep bullpen.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 28, 2015 15:30:15 GMT -5
"In order to clear room on the 40-man roster, right-hander Clay Buchholz has been transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL, meaning he can’t be activated until at least Sept. 9 (h/t: Tim Britton of the Providence Journal, on Twitter)."
33-year-old Machi
also, by my count, Sandy Leon went on waivers this afternoon. He as at Day 8. If he clears, outrighted on THUR afternoon.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 28, 2015 15:42:02 GMT -5
7/28 vs. CWS:
Betts CF De Aza RF Bogaerts SS Ortiz DH Ramirez LF Sandoval 3B Napoli 1B Swihart C Weeks 2B
Miley LHP
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Post by arzjake on Jul 28, 2015 15:48:07 GMT -5
That's been my argument all along. I have never argued that he's a stud who should be guaranteed a rotation spot, and I've been calling him a present-day back-end starter ever since he was acquired. That's the kind of guy you play if you don't have any better options and bench (or send to the bullpen) if you do. And my argument all along, since July 31, 2014, is this was and remains a very bad trade, that Kelly is awful and has no place starting on a team that aspires to win. Yet, a lot of people here have been talking for almost a year on how good Kelly could be - or actually is - but the end results, despite the advanced stats are, more often than not, failure. But ok, if you are right then about every GM in baseball not named Amaro should be agreeing with you wholeheartedly and about 20 of them should be lining up to get this valuable innings-eater #5 type, right? He's the next Pascal Perez or Tomo Ohka only with fewer pitches and less control - get him while he's hot. Or steaming, at least. The Sox are trying to salvage a player out of that trade. The quicker they dump kelly and put the entire 14 season behind them the better!
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Post by arzjake on Jul 28, 2015 15:52:42 GMT -5
7/28 vs. CWS: Betts CF De Aza RF Bogaerts SS Ortiz DH Ramirez LF Sandoval 3B Napoli 1B Swihart C Weeks 2B Miley LHP [br Castillo to the bench? So much for the "need of playing time". I don't get it.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2015 15:56:59 GMT -5
7/28 vs. CWS: Betts CF De Aza RF Bogaerts SS Ortiz DH Ramirez LF Sandoval 3B Napoli 1B Swihart C Weeks 2B Miley LHP [br Castillo to the bench? So much for the "need of playing time". I don't get it. Maybe they're showcasing DeAza like they did with Victorino last week? That's all I got.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jul 28, 2015 15:59:19 GMT -5
7/28 vs. CWS: Betts CF De Aza RF Bogaerts SS Ortiz DH Ramirez LF Sandoval 3B Napoli 1B Swihart C Weeks 2B Miley LHP [br Castillo to the bench? So much for the "need of playing time". I don't get it. I couldn't agree more. With each passing week I feel more confused about what this team thinks it's trying to achieve.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2015 16:04:13 GMT -5
[br Castillo to the bench? So much for the "need of playing time". I don't get it. Maybe they're showcasing DeAza like they did with Victorino last week? That's all I got. The best way to showcase De Aza is to sit him while he still has some value. Don't get it, either.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 28, 2015 16:20:29 GMT -5
If I'm Boston I'd start pulling key players early this time of year. Mostly to mess with the fans and the media into thinking they are about to get traded, but more importantly it can easily cover an intent to throw some more games for a better draft spot. I'm that dedicated.
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