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Roster construction for 2016
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 3, 2015 12:12:01 GMT -5
Add to 40-man roster: Margot, Light, Owens, M.Hernandez, FA 1B (assumes Hanley/Panda stay at current positions, which is not a given), FA 4TH OF +1 open spot to be filled Players in realistic consideration for Rule 5 protection (besides Margot, Light, Owens, M.Hernandez):Ty Buttrey, Allen Craig, Jacob Dahlstrand, Williams Jerez, Simon Mercedes, Henry Ramos, Robby Scott Agree Margot, Light, and Hernandez get protected for sure. Buttrey would seem like a guy you'd definitely protect, but would he stick in a MLB bullpen all year? I still think he gets protected though. Ramos might be playing his way into needing to be protected. He seems to be starting to get his feet back under him: Activation on 7/8 to 7/18: 8 G, 34 PA, 3 H, 2 3B, 2 BB, 7 K, .094/.147/.219 (.120 BABIP) 7/19 to 8/2: 12 G, 52 PA, 16 H, 5 2B, 6 BB, 5 K, .356/.431/.467 (.400 BABIP) Now, remains to be seen how much of that split is luck-driven, and his running is a key component here as well, but he'll be someone to watch for the rest of the season and this winter in Puerto Rico. Jerez is borderline and could go either way - I'd have said no, but his aggressive push this year suggests they're thinking about it. I don't think Craig, Dahlstrand, Mercedes or Scott are even borderline really (wouldn't the Sox LOVE if someone took Craig's contract off their hands?). I'd mention Taveras as another guy who I don't think they'll protect but who a team might take a flier on, depending on when they saw him.
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Post by michael on Aug 3, 2015 14:45:58 GMT -5
Just a thought, Cueto as an FA would bear no draft compensation.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 3, 2015 15:31:54 GMT -5
Just a thought, Cueto as an FA would bear no draft compensation. Same with Price. And Kazmir if you want another brittle #3.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 3, 2015 15:40:28 GMT -5
I'd prefer Price over Cueto, but I just can't see it happening with all the prior bad blood he's had with the Red Sox.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 3, 2015 15:56:40 GMT -5
I'd prefer Price over Cueto, but I just can't see it happening with all the prior bad blood he's had with the Red Sox. There are guys you hate until they're on your side.
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Post by jdb on Aug 3, 2015 15:58:32 GMT -5
Price will be like every other FA and go to he highest bidder. I'm guessing he gets a Scherzer contract while Cueto gets a little more than Lester. $175 range?
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2015 17:18:37 GMT -5
I can't see Cacchini and Brentz being kept on the 40-man roster for another year. Neither has been particularly outstanding at AAA - although Brentz has been hurt a lot - and there now seems little chance they will play for the Sox.
Also, I doubt they keep all those RPs. I don't know which ones should go, but we'll probably have a better idea by the end of the season. The BP needs a fairly substantial makeover and Light looks like the only one at Pawtucket who might have a chance of making the big club next year who hasn't already had a chance.
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Post by slam761 on Aug 3, 2015 18:57:57 GMT -5
I'd prefer Price over Cueto, but I just can't see it happening with all the prior bad blood he's had with the Red Sox. Lackey had plenty of bad blood with the Sox, yet signing with them was his first choice. I wouldn't expect that to matter much so long as Price is happy with their offer.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 3, 2015 19:20:06 GMT -5
Just a hunch. Instead of a free agent, I think we'll make a run at Strasburg. I don't see him signing a long-term deal in Washington. Boras is his agent. He can become a free agent after next season. They can try to get as much for him as they can with his departure imminet.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2015 19:51:32 GMT -5
Just a hunch. Instead of a free agent, I think we'll make a run at Strasburg. I don't see him signing a long-term deal in Washington. Boras is his agent. He can become a free agent after next season. They can try to get as much for him as they can with his departure imminet. Strasburg seems to be the Nationals' version of Buchholz. No thanks.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 10, 2015 14:59:00 GMT -5
Here's what I'm thinking.
Rotation: Trade Acquisition Buchholz Rodriguez Porcello Wright
Bullpen: Uehara Acquisition, ideally LH setup guy [X*] Tazawa Ross Machi (could lose job in ST to one of optioned relievers, see below) Ogando (ditto) Layne (ditto, though as a LHR, perhaps less likely)
* This assumes that one or more of those theoretically optioned guys, most likely Kelly or Light, impresses sufficiently in the last two months to project as a high-leverage reliever, forcing the last three guys into a fight for two jobs (at most). If that's not the case, another acquisition is probably warranted.
However, you want to keep all potentially very effective relievers around, if at all possible, because you never know what kind of stuff they'll show up with next year.
Lineup: Pedroia 4 or Betts 7 (or 9) Bogaerts 6 Ortiz 0 Ramirez 3 Heyward 9 (or Sandoval 5) Betts 7 or Pedroia 4 Sandoval 5 (or acquisition 7) Vazquez 2 Bradley 8
Bench: Hanigan Holt Castillo Acquisition (RHH 1B / OF or 1B / 3B) or Craig (plus I date Scarlett Johansson)
Traded: De Aza (now), Swihart, Miley, Marrero, and perhaps an optioned pitcher (*) from list below FA: Breslow DFAd: Varvaro, Coyle, Brentz
Optioned Players
PP: Cecchini Hernandez Rutledge Shaw Margot
SP: Buttery Johnson Owens
RP: Aro (*) Barnes Cook (*) or non-tendered and signed to a ml deal Escobar Hembree (*) Light Ramirez (*) Workman (*)
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 10, 2015 15:27:24 GMT -5
The more I think about the team going forward, the less sense having Hanley in the outfield makes. Either Bradley gets dealt this offseason, or we move Hanley to 1B. Admittedly, there seems to be some reluctance about that, but we're obviously not sitting Mookie so that Hanley, Bradley or Castillo can play, and platooning Castillo and Bradley makes 0 sense from a player development standpoint. It also makes no sense to throw money at a free agent 1B when Hanley doesn't fit at his current spot and we need all the cash ownership is willing to spend to improve the pitching staff. Not to mention that an Betts/Bradley/Castillo OF would clearly be pretty helpful to any pitching staff
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 10, 2015 17:03:17 GMT -5
I've borrowed ericmvan's structure but made some significant alterations:
I am assuming two to four major offseason or late season trades, acquiring one or two top of the rotation starting pitchers, two extremely good relief pitchers, a first baseman and possibly an outfielder. Thus, I have more players leaving the Sox.
Rotation: Trade Acquisition FA sign, Trade Acquisition or Owens Rodriguez Porcello Wright or Johnson or Owens
Bullpen: Uehara 2 Acquisitions, one LH one RH both late inning high quality, at least one closer quality 5 of Light, Kelly, Tazawa, Ross, Machi, Layne, Aro, Barnes, Cook, Hembree, Ramirez, Workman or Escobar keeping at least five at Pawtucket and probably switching among all ten, maybe even adding a couple more to the mix.
Lineup: Betts 7 Pedroia 4 Bogaerts 6 Ortiz 0 Acquisition 3 Castillo 9 or acquisition or Ramirez 7 and Betts 9 Sandoval 5 Swihart 2 or Vazquez Bradley 8
Bench: Hanigan Holt Shaw De Aza or Castillo
Option not picked up: Buchholz Traded: Swihart or Vazquez, Miley, Marrero, Cecchini, Wright or Johnson, Margot, H. Ramirez, and perhaps one or more of the RPs above and other minor league players TBD FA: Breslow DFAd: Varvaro, Coyle, Brentz, Ogando
Optioned Players
PP Hernandez Rutledge
SP: Buttrey RP: Five of the list above
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 10, 2015 17:23:04 GMT -5
Lineup:Pedroia 4 or Betts 7 (or 9) Bogaerts 6 Ortiz 0 Ramirez 3 Heyward 9 (or Sandoval 5) Betts 7 or Pedroia 4 Sandoval 5 (or acquisition 7) Vazquez 2 Bradley 8 I will never understand why even people like you, Eric, expend mental effort with associating each player of a starting 9 with one of the obsolete stereotypes of 20th-century baseball. You should know that you should have approximately your 5th-best hitter in the 3-hole, and Ortiz is still likely to be better than that against RHP and unfortunately may be worse than that against LHP.
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Post by notguilty on Aug 10, 2015 17:30:41 GMT -5
Here's what I'm thinking. Rotation:Trade Acquisition Buchholz Rodriguez Porcello WrightBullpen:
Uehara Acquisition, ideally LH setup guy [X*] Tazawa Ross Machi (could lose job in ST to one of optioned relievers, see below) Ogando (ditto) Layne (ditto, though as a LHR, perhaps less likely) I'm guessing this is a rebuild scenario? In which case I'd probably be fine with it. Though I saw Heyward in the line up, which I'm guessing would cost $100m+, and is really more of a win-now move. I thought that was a bit confusing - though if you're arguing that this rotation would take us to the top of the AL East (or the WC), I really don't see it. Too much uncertainty there - not to mention that they'd get excoriated on the radio, given how bad the "five aces" experiment worked out. The more you think about it, the more unbelievable it is that this team finds itself in such a hole. A year ago, we had the payroll and the upside. Now it's like the team is stuck - at least there's some pretty good youth talent there. My contribution - I'd go with the above rotation in a "rebuild", but I'm working under the assumption that a full rebuild is not possible in Boston. Therefore: -Sign a top end starter. I hate those contracts, but what are you gonna do? Show them the money. Price/Cueto preferably. -Trade for a #2. Gray, Carrasco, whomever. -Buchholz. -Porcello -Ed Rod -Wright/Johnson/Owens as back-ups. For the line-up, I move Ramirez to first, and go with a Mookie/JBJ/Castillo outfield. Or I trade JBJ+ to San Diego for Kimbrel+, and find a 1B who can hit (Davis or the Korean guy), and Hanley stays in LF. I don't think there's a whole lot you can do with the line-up otherwise, other than strengthening the bench. But the money has to go to the pitching. Then I use whatever is left to buy 2 somewhat reliable bullpen arms, and I see you in Fort Myers.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 10, 2015 17:35:21 GMT -5
I think we had a discussion about lineup construction. I am not religious about it. Your point is well taken. The thing I would try to avoid is having bad hitters hitting back to back to back - or better yet, not having any bad hitters.
Cook's book, Percentage Baseball, argues that the lineup should go from the best hitter to the worst and he shows with probabilities why more runs will be scored that way. It was tried by Bobby Bragan many years ago but he abandoned it even though his team did do slightly better while it was employed. He abandoned it because his best hitter was Hank Aaron and he didn't want to bat him lead-off. Cook tried to show that Aaron would be his most productive as the leadoff hitter, and the team would score more runs, but the idea went too much against traditional thinking.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 10, 2015 18:17:43 GMT -5
not to mention that they'd get excoriated on the radio, given how bad the "five aces" experiment worked out. LOL, is that what you think our GM should be worried about? What idiots say on the radio? <insert umpteenth repetition explaining that there is luck involved in baseball and this year's rotation was actually fine here>
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 10, 2015 18:25:27 GMT -5
I think we had a discussion about lineup construction. I am not religious about it. Your point is well taken. The thing I would try to avoid is having bad hitters hitting back to back to back - or better yet, not having any bad hitters. Cook's book, Percentage Baseball, argues ... You think, eh? I'm pretty sure I've told you often enough that the argument is wrong and you should pick up "The Book" from 2006 to see the correct math. But that wasn't my point anyway. Honestly the differences are so marginal it's hardly worth talking about and even if we could agree, Farrell is going to Farrell regardless. Even if your pet theory were true, you would have to agree that it's quite schizophrenic to say that Mookie Betts should be batting 1st OR 6th (but not anywhere in between).
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 10, 2015 18:59:48 GMT -5
You misread my post. I am not arguing for that theory. My intent was to point out that there are many theories of lineup construction and Cook's is interesting and very unusual. Give me the title of that book again. I will get it. Nevermind, I clicked on your link. AND I BOUGHT THE BOOK. Thanks for reminding me.
I am not a disciple of Cook but I think he was ahead of his time and in many areas his ideas still are correct: i.e. don't use the sacrifice bunt. I am fascinated with the many different ways baseball analysts have developed to try to explain the great game, without being committed to any one of them.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 10, 2015 22:31:32 GMT -5
Price will be like every other FA and go to he highest bidder. I'm guessing he gets a Scherzer contract while Cueto gets a little more than Lester. $175 range? I do not know about that. I could see price being very interested in going to the Cubs. Madden and all that young talent. He might pass up the Yankees best offer for a shot with the Cubs.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 11, 2015 0:39:47 GMT -5
Here's what I'm thinking. Rotation:Trade Acquisition Buchholz Rodriguez Porcello WrightBullpen:
Uehara Acquisition, ideally LH setup guy [X*] Tazawa Ross Machi (could lose job in ST to one of optioned relievers, see below) Ogando (ditto) Layne (ditto, though as a LHR, perhaps less likely) I'm guessing this is a rebuild scenario? Not at all. I should have made it clear that the trade acquisition is Syndergaard or DeGrom or maybe even Gray, or someone else of that caliber. In the real world, that's plenty good enough to win a WS.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 11, 2015 0:59:57 GMT -5
Lineup:Pedroia 4 or Betts 7 (or 9) Bogaerts 6 Ortiz 0 Ramirez 3 Heyward 9 (or Sandoval 5) Betts 7 or Pedroia 4 Sandoval 5 (or acquisition 7) Vazquez 2 Bradley 8 I will never understand why even people like you, Eric, expend mental effort with associating each player of a starting 9 with one of the obsolete stereotypes of 20th-century baseball. You should know that you should have approximately your 5th-best hitter in the 3-hole, and Ortiz is still likely to be better than that against RHP and unfortunately may be worse than that against LHP. Those lineup theories are based on the assumption that guys hit just as well regardless of where you put them and how happy (or, of you prefer, "comfortable") they are about it. Which of course is obviously not remotely true. Minimizing the opponent's ability to use his bullpen against your platoon splits is also a bigger factor than any fine-tuning that goes beyond the two main rules of thumb (better hitters before weaker one, value from OBP ahead of value from SA). And here's another factor: you want your base-stealers in front of guys who hit a lot of singles and doubles relative to their walks and homers. Betts in front of Sandoval, for instance (or the 2015 version of Xander). In this case, I suspect the three best offensive players versus RHP next year will be Betts, Bogaerts, and Ortiz, and logically you'd have Hanley hitting 6th, but I think you now understand why I've got him 4th. You can tweak it mid-season if it's clear he needs to be 6th.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2015 2:11:00 GMT -5
There are some horrible rumors out there to the effect that the Red Sox will make a run at Chris Davis this offseason.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 11, 2015 4:32:44 GMT -5
Sox need to spend all possible resources on pitching and somehow shore up the defence. This leads to a few conclusions/observations 1- we have a lot of pitchers but none who project to be top of rotation guys. 2- are bullpen is a shambles. Kojis injury may make it worse. 3- we have players out of possision deteriorating the defence. 4- we have a lot of injury prone guys 5- we potentially have some bad contracts(all teams do) The question is how to solve this in a econonomic way and not mortgaging are future. 1- have to sign a pitcher. The FA pool will never be deeper. I know this will probably turn out to be a bad deal but we have no choice. it Dosnt have to be one of the top couple guys and it could actualy end up being Bucholtz ( I love him but the whole injury thing is almost to much. We'll see what happens the last couple weeks of the year with him). Also as much as I'd like to get a Gray or Syndagaurd type pitcher it's would just cost to much 2- trade/sign/promote JUST get some arms down there. 3- get Hanley out of LF and play JBJ in center 4- cut some ties. Maybe even look ok at moving Pedroia and putting betts to 2B. I'm also on board with guys on moving Miley but to be honest he's been are most reliable/durable starter. Before you can think about moving him you need to have real options. 5- not much a guy can do unless we can make a swap the helps the pitching. Sandival/shields This all being said here is what I think we could afford, not mortgaging the future and may even make us a contender. Make a trade with San Diego. Shields/Ross + Kimbrel for Sandoval+ owens(or Johnson ) +Margot Sign at least Zimmerman but I'm warming up to Cueto Trade kelly for RP or get him to pen Get Hanley to 3B or 1B Only trade miley if you get a return and you need to money saved to go towards the top FA pitcher Hope that the young players improve and that the guys that had bad seasons arnt as bad next year. Still probably not enough but at least I can go to the Fort with some hope
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Post by notguilty on Aug 11, 2015 6:12:35 GMT -5
not to mention that they'd get excoriated on the radio, given how bad the "five aces" experiment worked out. LOL, is that what you think our GM should be worried about? What idiots say on the radio? <insert umpteenth repetition explaining that there is luck involved in baseball and this year's rotation was actually fine here> On talk radio, you obviously can't run a team listening to talk radio; nobody said that. But pretending public opinion does not exist is equally silly. I think we very often do our analysis a disservice when we make an abstraction of the fact that the Red Sox are running a consumer business over there. Perception matters to their ability to make money, so yeah, perception is a factor, whether we like it or not. I wouldn't mind a rebuild of sorts. Not sure if Tom Werner and NESN are ready for that. The Red Sox are a bit like the Yankees in that sense. I couldn't tell whether the bolded was sarcastic.
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