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Roster construction for 2016
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Post by Guidas on Aug 27, 2015 13:21:19 GMT -5
Given that Buchholz's body can not hold up for 200 innings per year, could he thrive in the bullpen where he only throws 80 innings per season? The 2016 rotation could be: Grienke Porcello Miley Rodriguez Kelly With Owens, Barnes, wright or workman as potential spot starters if needed. The bullpen would consist of uehara, tawaza, Buchholz, workman, Edwin Escobar, layne and Wright. You want to knock Clay Buchholz and his 3.1 WAR out of the rotation for freaking Joe Kelly? Even when Buchholz gets injured he still pitches more than 100 innings a season, and can pitch 180+ when healthy. This is a horrible idea. Also you're worried about Buchholz holding up, but you want to sign Mr. 2000 innings Zack Greinke? No thank you. Agree with this. I was a huge proponent of signing Grienke back when he first became a free agent but I don't want to pay premium money now and get only the declining years. |
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Post by soxfan1615 on Aug 27, 2015 17:05:01 GMT -5
You want to knock Clay Buchholz and his 3.1 WAR out of the rotation for freaking Joe Kelly? Even when Buchholz gets injured he still pitches more than 100 innings a season, and can pitch 180+ when healthy. This is a horrible idea. Also you're worried about Buchholz holding up, but you want to sign Mr. 2000 innings Zack Greinke? No thank you. Agree with this. I was a huge proponent of signing Grienke back when he first became a free agent but I don't want to pay premium money now and get only the declining years. Yeah, so was I, he was younger than normal, but now he's older than normal FAs, and coming off a career year. Someone's gonna give him a bad deal. |
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Post by bannedfromsosh on Aug 27, 2015 23:45:27 GMT -5
1 - Do not pick up Clay's option unless you've burned up the phones and found a suitor. Maybe even eat a couple million to make it more palatable for a small market team to take the gamble on his health. Seek a reliever in return; Hochevar seems like the sort of deal to be made here.
2 - The 10-13m you've saved goes toward one of the top pitchers on the market. i've seen a relatively wide range of payroll flexibility, and that also assumes they're going to stay under the threshold. Regardless, the bulk of that money is best spent on an ace. Not many people disagree. Cueto seems most likely, even though he was a few minor warts. Price seems destined to be a Cub. Zimmerman is probably the consolation prize. Shark, Kazmir, and that tier don't move the needle for this team. I'm not against bringing those guys in if we shave enough payroll or take on the Dodgers approach, but they're all about reliable of bets as Clay. Meh.
3 - Give Hanley the 1B job for the simple fact that if its even tolerable we've successfully bridged the gap to his DH role. If its a disaster, we're just as stuck with him in the half-assed role he's in now. Shaw, so far, seems like a safe bet for decent production if Hanley fails.
4 - Trade for SP2. Beating a dead horse, but the rotation rounds out as EdRod, Porcello, and Wright/Owens/Johnson/Kelly/Miley. Odds are 1 or 2 of those guys are gone in such a deal. All of them have value....all of them cannot coexist. Strausburg strikes me as the most likely to be dominant yet cost the least. It also seems likely the Nationals might consider a retooling of the organization (maybe Williams gets the axe, but something has to give); Gio Gonzalez could be on the move too with Boras now representing him. Either way we have the cache to get this done - even for a one year rental, you can reassess the new market going into 2017 if the acquisition cannot be resigned cheaply.
5 - Outfield's set, unless we NEED one of those guys (JBJ?) to complete a deal. If so, don't have a panic attack. I know how much some of you love the idea of these 3 guys playing together, but if the pitching staff is garbage, its useless in the grand scheme of things. Let's assume for now the Margots and Guerras in the system will be enough to revamp the rotation and the OF stays the same.
6 -Bullpen needs a major revamping. I'd even go as far to say that we unload Tazawa who was taxed to death this year. Good mix of young guys, rebound guys, Koji, and a new closer....Chapman is the best option, Kimbrel in the same conversation, but someone's gotta exist that is almost at that level and won't cost the moon.
Betts
Pedroia
Ortiz
Hanley/Shaw
Bogaerts
Panda
Castillo
Swihart/Vazquez
JBJ
Cueto
Straus/Iwakuma
EdRo
Porcello
Owens/Johnson
Perkins
Koji
Hochevar
Ogando
...and a hodge podge
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2015 0:21:13 GMT -5
1 - Do not pick up Clay's option unless you've burned up the phones and found a suitor. Maybe even eat a couple million to make it more palatable for a small market team to take the gamble on his health. Seek a reliever in return; Hochevar seems like the sort of deal to be made here. Hochevar's value over the last six seasons precisely matches what Buchholz gave us in 18 starts this year (2.6 WAR). At today's prices, Buchholz has been worth: $20.8 million this year $18.4 million, average of the last 6 years (mean) $18.0 million, median of his last 6 seasons Obviously they need a nice positive medical report on him before they pick up his $13M option, but if they have that, it's a no-brainer. Even if he starts 18 games again and they need to fill in the remainder with a combination of Wright, Owens, and Johnson, the result will be far better than anything they could acquire for the money they're saving (or the equivalent in prospects). |
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2015 6:22:02 GMT -5
6 -Bullpen needs a major revamping. I'd even go as far to say that we unload Tazawa who was taxed to death this year. Good mix of young guys, rebound guys, Koji, and a new closer....Chapman is the best option, Kimbrel in the same conversation, but someone's gotta exist that is almost at that level and won't cost the moon. Perkins Koji Hochevar Ogando ...and a hodge podge Of 138 qualified relief pitchers, Ogando is tied for last with -0.9 fWAR. Even Breslow, who is 5th worst only has -0.5. Maybe I'd take him back if he paid some of Hanley and Pablo's salary out of his pocket. |
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Post by soxcentral on Aug 28, 2015 7:31:45 GMT -5
1 - Do not pick up Clay's option unless you've burned up the phones and found a suitor. Maybe even eat a couple million to make it more palatable for a small market team to take the gamble on his health. Seek a reliever in return; Hochevar seems like the sort of deal to be made here. Hochevar's value over the last six seasons precisely matches what Buchholz gave us in 18 starts this year (2.6 WAR). At today's prices, Buchholz has been worth: $20.8 million this year $18.4 million, average of the last 6 years (mean) $18.0 million, median of his last 6 seasons Obviously they need a nice positive medical report on him before they pick up his $13M option, but if they have that, it's a no-brainer. Even if he starts 18 games again and they need to fill in the remainder with a combination of Wright, Owens, and Johnson, the result will be far better than anything they could acquire for the money they're saving (or the equivalent in prospects). Forgive me if this was calculated wrong, but his fWAR for the last 6 years are: 2015 - 3.1 2014 - 1.5 2013 - 2.8 2012 - 0.8 2011 - 0.7 2010 - 2.1 I don't think it's a slam dunk to assume he will be more than worth his contract next year, and that money is best allocated going to him. I do agree he is potentially a great value, but he's equally likely to tax your depth while preventing you from going out and getting another reliable quality starter. |
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Post by mandelbro on Aug 28, 2015 9:06:00 GMT -5
$20M for Zobrist?  Jeez. Well, finding a platoon partner for Sandoval is an important order of business. Unless you believe in Holt's reverse split, all the internal options are the same side of the playoon as Panda - Holt, Shaw, even Cecchini. What do we think of Chris Johnson? He's a stiff but has a career 115 wRC+ versus LHP. He can play 3B and 1B, although we wouldn't be planning for it to come to the latter. He'd have to be traded for, but seeing what he was just traded for (nothing) the cost wouldn't be prohibitive. |
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2015 9:30:39 GMT -5
$20M for Zobrist? Jeez. Well, finding a platoon partner for Sandoval is an important order of business. Unless you believe in Holt's reverse split, all the internal options are the same side of the playoon as Panda - Holt, Shaw, even Cecchini. What do we think of Chris Johnson? He's a stiff but has a career 115 wRC+ versus LHP. He can play 3B and 1B, although we wouldn't be planning for it to come to the latter. He'd have to be traded for, but seeing what he was just traded for (nothing) the cost wouldn't be prohibitive. Zobrist is one year removed from 4 straight 5-6 fWAR seasons. He had a terrible defensive season this year, but he's hitting as well as ever. Also of note is that he has a total of 36 innings at 3B in his career, which pretty much rules out playing him at 3B. He is not a platoon player. He's a switch hitter who doesn't have big splits. He'd be worth $20 million a season way more than Pablo or Hanley. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 28, 2015 9:44:02 GMT -5
... except that on a team that has two second baseman, four or five outfielders, and one guy who can play all those positions and more, he's a bit redundant.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2015 9:50:46 GMT -5
... except that on a team that has two second baseman, four or five outfielders, and one guy who can play all those positions and more, he's a bit redundant. Yeah, I said that earlier. We have zero need for Zobrist, especially at what he'll cost. |
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 28, 2015 11:39:00 GMT -5
And Zobrist will be 35. He cannot keep hitting like he has for KC for much longer. If his D has gone downhill then that is just another reason not to sign him.
IF Hanley is at 1B, the Sox normally would have only three LH hitters in the lineup, Ortiz, JBJ and Sandoval. That Sandoval cannot hit LHPs then will not be a very big deal. It's not a problem worth spending a lot of money, or a roster spot, to try to fix.
If Sandoval plays poorly next year then that is a different problem, and a platoon won't solve it.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 28, 2015 12:21:03 GMT -5
Throwing money after Cueto and Greinke to pay for their diminishing skills as they are in their thirties, is not responsible use of resources. And I am unanimous in that statement! Price will be the object of a bidding war between Yankees and Cubs to see which one can top Scherzer's contract.
So we're left with Dombrowski's negotiating skills to bring a younger pitcher here who can become our ace. He has another month + to see whether Kelly and Porcello can be depended upon in a future rotation. Rick's recent outstanding outing and Kelly's last five starts give some hope that they can be valuable assets moving forward. I don't understand the animus regarding Kelly. He's young, controlled and has a good live arm; it's just his head may not always be in the right place. Maybe he's coming around.
As for the outfield, I don't know why they're taking a look at Rusney in LF. With his arm, he belongs where he is now. It's Betts who should be auditioning in LF, as JBJ, if he continues to progress at the plate, is clearly the best option for CF.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2015 15:38:42 GMT -5
Updated (changes in red):
Rotation:
Trade Acquisition
Buchholz
Porcello
Rodriguez
Wright
Bullpen:
Uehara
LH setup acquisition
RH setup acquisition
Tazawa
Ross
Layne
Kelly (short, long, and spot starter, the old Workman role) (I left him out of my first version entirely!)
Ogando (traded in ST if everyone is healthy)
Lineup:
Pedroia 4
Bogaerts 6
Ortiz 0
Ramirez 3
Betts 7
Sandoval 5
Castillo 9
Vazquez 2 (Hanigan while he's on DL at start of season)
Bradley 8
You move Bradley to 1 and drop everyone down one, if and when he's better than half the guys in front of him and has a .350 OBP or better.
You think you can hit and run with Mookie on 1B and Panda at the plate?
Bench:
Hanigan
Maldonado or other catcher acquisition, temporary
Holt
Shaw
Acquisition (RHH 1B / OF)
Traded: De Aza (now), Swihart, Margot, Miley, Marrero
FA: Breslow
Non-tender: Cook
DFAd: Machi, Varvaro, Coyle, Brentz
Optioned Players
PP: Cecchini
Hernandez
Rutledge
SP: Buttery
Johnson
Owens
Barnes (for the time being)
Escobar (ditto)
RP: Aro
Hembree
Light
Ramirez
Workman
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2015 15:46:19 GMT -5
Hochevar's value over the last six seasons precisely matches what Buchholz gave us in 18 starts this year (2.6 WAR). At today's prices, Buchholz has been worth: $20.8 million this year $18.4 million, average of the last 6 years (mean) $18.0 million, median of his last 6 seasons Obviously they need a nice positive medical report on him before they pick up his $13M option, but if they have that, it's a no-brainer. Even if he starts 18 games again and they need to fill in the remainder with a combination of Wright, Owens, and Johnson, the result will be far better than anything they could acquire for the money they're saving (or the equivalent in prospects). Forgive me if this was calculated wrong, but his fWAR for the last 6 years are: 2015 - 3.1 2014 - 1.5 2013 - 2.8 2012 - 0.8 2011 - 0.7 2010 - 2.1 I don't think it's a slam dunk to assume he will be more than worth his contract next year, and that money is best allocated going to him. I do agree he is potentially a great value, but he's equally likely to tax your depth while preventing you from going out and getting another reliable quality starter. fWAR for pitchers is generally more predictive than bWAR, but it doesn't come close to measuring retrospective value; as a measure of such, it's close to a joke. Buchholz is one of the guys who consistently has a big fWAR - bWAR gap, in both directions, because he has tended to have a strong (and I would argue, real) inverse correlation between his FIP (and hence his fWAR) and BABIP. The only argument for using fWAR in this analysis would be to substitute this year's fWAR for bWAR, which adds $4M to his value. That would be true if you believed the inverse correlation between FIP and BABIP is no longer the case, which is something I predicted would happen (because most BABIP skills cannot be sustained over many years) a few years ago, and which I suspect is in fact happening. But I thought it would be simpler to leave that out. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2015 15:53:02 GMT -5
Kelly's last five starts give some hope that {he and Porcello} can be valuable assets moving forward. I don't understand the animus regarding Kelly. He's young, controlled and has a good live arm; it's just his head may not always be in the right place. Maybe he's coming around. His last four starts are almost his best consecutive four starts of his MLB career, taken together, and definitely his best four consistently good ones -- he's had a pair of stretches with three great ones and one rough one that average out a bit better. I think it's absolutely true that this would happen eventually, and at random, with any talented, inconsistent guy. But if it keeps up, it becomes increasingly promising. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2015 16:01:54 GMT -5
6 -Bullpen needs a major revamping. I'd even go as far to say that we unload Tazawa who was taxed to death this year. Good mix of young guys, rebound guys, Koji, and a new closer....Chapman is the best option, Kimbrel in the same conversation, but someone's gotta exist that is almost at that level and won't cost the moon. Perkins Koji Hochevar Ogando ...and a hodge podge Of 138 qualified relief pitchers, Ogando is tied for last with -0.9 fWAR. Even Breslow, who is 5th worst only has -0.5. Maybe I'd take him back if he paid some of Hanley and Pablo's salary out of his pocket. He's only 110th, 111th in xFIP- (104) and SIERA, and he's actually 61st in WPA. His FIP / FWAR has been crushed by giving up a lot of HRs in meaningless situations. You don't go out of your way to acquire guys who are a bit below average, but you don't give them away, either. Given the volatility of relievers, I think the right thing to do is keep him, and bring him to ST as the 8th guy in the bullpen depth chart. Those guys have sometimes proved to be valuable (Albers, e,g.) |
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 28, 2015 17:03:59 GMT -5
“@ianmbrowne: Dombrowski/Lovullo made it sound like decision could come soon whether Mookie or Jackie is the CFer going forward.”
“@peteabe: In listening to Dombrowski and Lovullo, sounds like #RedSox want to see Bradley in CF more.”
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 28, 2015 17:42:34 GMT -5
... “@peteabe: In listening to Dombrowski and Lovullo, sounds like #RedSox want to see Bradley in CF more.” They must like that "porn" as much as many of us do. |
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 29, 2015 22:21:37 GMT -5
Given that Buchholz's body can not hold up for 200 innings per year, could he thrive in the bullpen where he only throws 80 innings per season? The 2016 rotation could be: Grienke Porcello Miley Rodriguez Kelly With Owens, Barnes, wright or workman as potential spot starters if needed. The bullpen would consist of uehara, tawaza, Buchholz, workman, Edwin Escobar, layne and Wright. You want to knock Clay Buchholz and his 3.1 WAR out of the rotation for freaking Joe Kelly? Even when Buchholz gets injured he still pitches more than 100 innings a season, and can pitch 180+ when healthy. This is a horrible idea. Also you're worried about Buchholz holding up, but you want to sign Mr. 2000 innings Zack Greinke? No thank you. Freaking Joe Kelly now has the longest freaking winning streak in the Al with six. How about a little love? |
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 29, 2015 23:44:57 GMT -5
The Red Sox evaluation of their own players over the rest of this season and in building next years club is going to be critical for this teams future. Just the starting pitching alone is extremely challenging, how much to value Buchholz as a guy who can pitch like an ace but is almost assured of missing starts, is the Kelly we've seen this month for real, is Porcello going to pitch like a #3 or #5, is Eduardo Rodriguez going to take the next step and become more consistent from outing to outing, can Owens continue to keep runners from crossing the plate if he continues to put them on like he has and can he start to improve at limiting the amount of guys he puts on, is Wright's best role as a member of the rotation and if so is he better than the other guys we have, Miley is the sure thing of the bunch my thoughts on him is that he may have more value in a trade than in our rotation, but giving credit wher it's due he's been our best pitcher from start to finish. A rotation of Buchholz, Rodriguez, Porcello, Kelly and Owens, with Wright as the 6th starter that you will absolutely need with Buchholz on the staff, could be awesome, but flip the coin and it could also be a disaster. I tend to be too much of an optimist, and want to believe that Porcello and Kelly have learned a lot this year and will both be very good going forward, and that Rodriguez and Owens are both going to get better and be fronting the staff in a couple of years, and though I'm not optimistic enough to think Buchholz will make 30 starts I will still hope for him to front the rotation for a large part of next year. But what if ... What if Clay misses half the season or more, Rodriguez has some growing pains and some regression, Kelly and Porcello remain erratic, and Owens cannot continue to wiggle out of jams? All those things are entirely possible and maybe even not all that unlikely, and that's something I think DD really can't afford to gamble on, but trading some of these guys is also risky, as is signing FA pitchers in the tail end of their prime to mega contracts. DD has a lot of tough decisions to make and the outcome will depend largely on how effectively he and the Sox can evaluate their own players. That just touched on the rotation, but the position players are a very similar story, and the bullpen frankly needs a major infusion of talent.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Aug 30, 2015 7:22:36 GMT -5
Paragraphs, bro.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 30, 2015 14:42:59 GMT -5
Considering that was done on my iPhone, I'm just glad there aren't 70 spelling errors from my fat thumbs. |
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Post by bmitchsox on Aug 30, 2015 16:56:46 GMT -5
Bucc can't be the 2, and koji should be the set up man since next year could be his last.
Sonny Gray for Manuel Margot, Ryan Hanigan, Brian Johnson, Javier Guerra, Deven Marrero, Wendell Rijo
Sign David Price
Trade Buccholz for a solid reliever
Sign Soria
Betts cf
Bradley lf
Bogaerts ss
Ortiz dh
Hanley 1b
Pedroia 2b
Sandoval 3b
Castillo rf
Swihart c
Vazquez, Holt, Shaw, FA or Rutledge
Soria
Uehara
LH Trade Acq
Tazawa
Machi
Ogando
Miley or FA or Layne
Gray
Price
Rodriguez
Porcello
Kelly
Owens and Miley as backups
I think Kelly is proving that he deserves a chance. If not, i think he would be great out of the pen. Wouldn't mind trading one of Hanley/Sandoval to give Shaw a chance, but i'm also fine with them. I think Hanley will play a decent first base for a year or 2 until he can DH. Also think the whole OF will have breakout years, and deserve to start.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Aug 30, 2015 18:56:54 GMT -5
Bucc can't be the 2, and koji should be the set up man since next year could be his last. Sonny Gray for Manuel Margot, Ryan Hanigan, Brian Johnson, Javier Guerra, Deven Marrero, Wendell Rijo Sign David Price Trade Buccholz for a solid reliever Sign Soria Betts cf Bradley lf Bogaerts ss Ortiz dh Hanley 1b Pedroia 2b Sandoval 3b Castillo rf Swihart c Vazquez, Holt, Shaw, FA or Rutledge Soria Uehara LH Trade Acq Tazawa Machi Ogando Miley or FA or Layne Gray Price Rodriguez Porcello Kelly Owens and Miley as backups I think Kelly is proving that he deserves a chance. If not, i think he would be great out of the pen. Wouldn't mind trading one of Hanley/Sandoval to give Shaw a chance, but i'm also fine with them. I think Hanley will play a decent first base for a year or 2 until he can DH. Also think the whole OF will have breakout years, and deserve to start. Buchholz was the value of a #2 this year and he only pitched half the year. There also no way the A's do that trade for Gray. Switch Hanigan for Vazquez or Swihart and add in Kopech and you might be onto something, but my guess is they'd want Margot and Devers in the deal. Gray is probably one of the top 15 most valuable assets in MLB right now. I also would be shocked if we outbid a team like the LAD for Price, but crazier things have happened. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 5, 2015 2:46:03 GMT -5
Here's your batting order vs. RHP for next season.
First principle: Bat guys where they're likely to thrive.
Second: Better hitters before lesser.
Third: If possible, spread your LHH optimally to reduce exploitation by opposing bullpens.
Fourth part 1: Guys whose value is OBP ahead of guys whose value is SA.
Fourth part 2: Guys who get their OBP by BB (and who hence set the table) ahead of guys that get it by BA (who hence knock teammates in).
Fifth: Put your base-stealers ahead of guys who hit a lot of singles and doubles relative to their walks and homers.
Sixth: Separate your big HR hitters, if possible.
Seventh: If possible, best hitters at 2 & 4, worst hitter at 8, with an OK OBP but bad SA guy 9.
Principle #2 says JBJ has to hit in the top 6 and probably the top 5. Your three weakest hitters are Sandoval, Castillo, and the catcher.
P#3 says Ortiz, Bradley, and Sandoval have to either hit 1-4-7, or 2-5-8, or 3-6-9.
Well, that's obviously Bradley 1, Ortiz 4, and Sandoval 7.
Bradley walks a lot and would be a great leadoff hitter. Ortiz at 4 is perfect, and Sandoval lower than 7 feels dissed.
Castillo has been amazingly better in his career in pitch-around situations (1B open with RISP, etc.) than in challenge situations (runner on 1st, etc.), enough to suggest something real is happening despite the SSS (his challenge / neutral / pitch-around TAv is .198 / .279 / .386). And, yes, that may well tell you something about a hitter, since Drew had that split his whole career. Guys who have that split tend to hit better when they're not protected in the lineup, and guys with the opposite split hit better when they are protected -- this explains (and in 2005, predicted) why Trot Nixon hit better 2 than 5 his whole career, and predicted and explained why Drew did the opposite. So Rusney hitting 8 in front of the catcher is a no-brainer, even though it violates your worst-8th principle.
So now we just have to put Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Ramirez in the 2, 3, 5, and 6 holes.
Pedroia is the least of the hitters, but he can't hit 6 because he really benefits from protection (about an .030 TAv challenge / pitch-around split). He's also been miscast a bit as a table-setter, since he's a high BA guy, so 5 would actually be a useful slot for him. Mookie is a strong candidate to be the team's second-best hitter, especially if he starts walking like he did in the minors, and guys who walk a lot are great candidates for 1-2. Xander has thrived hitting 3rd, a great spot for a guy who's your 3rd or 4th best hitter, and who has a high BA and hence can knock the table-setters in; and Betts stealing with Bogaerts up is a very good strategy. And Ramirez hitting 6 would protect Pedroia and create a sense of a deep, scary lineup, which it will be.
1. Bradley
2. Betts
3. Bogaerts
4. Ortiz
5. Pedroia
6. Ramirez
7. Sandoval
8. Castillo
9. Catcher
Now, if Hanley's looking top-of-form, he may well regard 6 as a dis. In that case, Bogaerts can hit 6 (where he would also have great value). and Hanley can hit 3.
Hanley at 2 might be even better in theory, but he's barely hit there in his career and didn't hit all that well. It's a little fuzzy, but I seem to recall there being some evidence that he doesn't respond all that well to a novel role. I would tell Hanley he's hitting 6 and tell him he can earn 3 by being his best self.
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Jeez.
