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Roster construction for 2016
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 5, 2015 16:45:04 GMT -5
That's an exciting lineup to look at, especially considering I think Mookie and Xander could still (and are very likely to, especially Xander) improve offensively. With bounce back seasons from Hanley and Sandoval, and a full year from the kids and Pedroia, that could be the best lineup in baseball next year.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 5, 2015 17:08:31 GMT -5
Three step plan for the offseason:
1.) sign greinke. 2.) trade for kumbrell 3.) sign left handed reliever.
Rotation is greinke, Rodriguez, porcello,, Miley, and Kelly. Buchholz in the pen. Johnson and Owens at Pawtucket.
Bullpen is Kimbrell, uehara, tawaza, Buchholz, Ross, lhrp, and layne.
Lineup: cf - betts, rf - Bradley, ss - bogaerts, dh - Ortiz, 2b - pedroia, 3b - sandavol, 1b - rameriez, lf - Castillo, c - swihart.
Bench is holt, hanigan, shaw and Rutledge. Vazquez and morerro start the year in Pawtucket.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 5, 2015 19:09:08 GMT -5
I think larrycook meant Kimbrel. I think Kimbrel would be a good acquisition. I'd like to see two of his quality added to the BP. I don't think one is enough and something always happens to RPs. It makes sense to go long there but Buchholz is not the answer.
Not only will the Sox not put Buchholz in the bullpen, he probably is not a relief pitcher. I think he would be hurt very quickly and on the DL. He doesn't exactly have a rubber arm.
Why is it assumed that Greinke will opt out of his deal? It seems everyone believes that, but it doesn't make sense. He is getting $147 million over six years with three years left after this year. That's an average of $24.75M a year but I don't know how much he is actually getting each year of the deal. Still, he's going to be 32. He is the oldest of really good pitchers who will, or could be, FAs. He is pitching for a team nearly guaranteed to be in the post season almost every year. Who is going to give him a contract that pays much more than what he is getting? And, especially, a deal that would have to go well past the age of 35? The Dodgers might, to keep him, but I can't see anyone else doing it. Of course, I'm probably wrong. There is a lot of money in baseball today. So, I'll say the Red Sox won't do it.
In descending order of current fWAR, these are pitchers who either will be FAs or often are rumored to be on the Sox radar. (Of course that radar just changed and there hasn't been enough time yet for new radar rumors to start). But those here probably are on the radar. Their age next season is in brackets with their current fWAR and the highest previous fWAR they have had and the year they had it. Every one of these pitchers is pitching close to or above his best fWAR year except for Zimmerman, Greinke, and Cueto, and every best fWAR year for every pitcher is either this season or 2014 with the exception of Cueto who had the same highest fWAR in 2012 and 2014 and Greinke whose best fWAR was in 2009.
The only pitchers on this list I would not pursue are Greinke and Zimmerman.
The real question now is with the resurgence of Kelly, Porcello and Miley, and the performance of Rodriguez, will the Sox settle for the addition of just one of them? Or will they trade one or more of the existing starters and add two of them, one by trade and the other a FA? That's still what I would do, but if it was a choice of adding two of these but only one top RP, then I would add only one of these and get two top RPs. Best move would be to get two of each.
Sale (27, 6.2, 5.2 2014) **Grienke (32, 5.4, 8.6 (2009) *Price (31, 5.2, 6.1, 2014) Carrasco (29, 4.1, 3.2, 2014) *Cueto (30, 3.9, 4.7 2012 and 2014) Ross (29, 3.8, 3.2 2014) Gray (26, 3.7, 3.1 2014) *Zimmerman (30, 2.9, 5.3 2014)
*FA ** Has opt out in his contract
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 6, 2015 10:14:06 GMT -5
Why is it assumed that Greinke will opt out of his deal? It seems everyone believes that, but it doesn't make sense. He is getting $147 million over six years with three years left after this year. That's an average of $24.75M a year but I don't know how much he is actually getting each year of the deal. Still, he's going to be 32. He is the oldest of really good pitchers who will, or could be, FAs. He is pitching for a team nearly guaranteed to be in the post season almost every year. Who is going to give him a contract that pays much more than what he is getting? And, especially, a deal that would have to go well past the age of 35? The Dodgers might, to keep him, but I can't see anyone else doing it. Of course, I'm probably wrong. There is a lot of money in baseball today. So, I'll say the Red Sox won't do it. He has 3/$77 left on his deal. He'll opt out because several teams would offer him more than a 3/$77million deal. I doubt the Red Sox will be in on him. But it's pretty clear that he's worth more than that.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 6, 2015 14:23:38 GMT -5
Why is it assumed that Greinke will opt out of his deal? It seems everyone believes that, but it doesn't make sense. He is getting $147 million over six years with three years left after this year. That's an average of $24.75M a year but I don't know how much he is actually getting each year of the deal. Still, he's going to be 32. He is the oldest of really good pitchers who will, or could be, FAs. He is pitching for a team nearly guaranteed to be in the post season almost every year. Who is going to give him a contract that pays much more than what he is getting? And, especially, a deal that would have to go well past the age of 35? The Dodgers might, to keep him, but I can't see anyone else doing it. Of course, I'm probably wrong. There is a lot of money in baseball today. So, I'll say the Red Sox won't do it. He has 3/$77 left on his deal. He'll opt out because several teams would offer him more than a 3/$77million deal. I doubt the Red Sox will be in on him. But it's pretty clear that he's worth more than that. If dombrowski passes on a grienke, how realistic is a trade with Cleveland for carrasco? What do we have that would interest Cleveland?
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Post by bstrong on Sept 6, 2015 17:01:51 GMT -5
How about H.Ramirez & $9-$10M/yr. for the next 3yrs. to Cleveland for C.Carassco straight-up. That move alone,as drastic as it sounds,would save the Sox collectively $8.25+M in 2016; $6.25+M in 2017; $4.75+M in 2018.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 6, 2015 17:14:27 GMT -5
How about H.Ramirez & $9-$10M/yr. for the next 3yrs. to Cleveland for C.Carassco straight-up. That move alone,as drastic as it sounds,would save the Sox collectively $8.25+M in 2016; $6.25+M in 2017; $4.75+M in 2018. This is a joke right
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 6, 2015 17:32:04 GMT -5
How about H.Ramirez & $9-$10M/yr. for the next 3yrs. to Cleveland for C.Carassco straight-up. That move alone,as drastic as it sounds,would save the Sox collectively $8.25+M in 2016; $6.25+M in 2017; $4.75+M in 2018. Lol
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Post by Smittyw on Sept 6, 2015 17:36:55 GMT -5
I hope you're listening, Dave.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 6, 2015 19:13:52 GMT -5
To me Less is more and I want to make a top of the rotation starter a priority without draft pick compentation. Address the bullpen. I don't mind picking up a DFA guy but more for competition in spring training not basically peciling him in for a spot in the pen. This team would of made a push for the playoffs if there was a commitment from the FO on that bullpen. How did Taz's arm not fall off?
My idea from the pen is hopefully a couple of spots go to the kids and bring in one or two veterans. A side note Dave has to address the rule five guys so he might from that pool make a move or two. I am sure some of these leeches are gonna pick up these kids. We have to stock other teams for them. The O's grabbing Garcia was terrible no matter how bad he did they were gonna keep him because he throws upper 90's.
The lineup is pretty good and I would keep these at warm for Devers and Moncada who will replace Petey and Panda. In a perfect world I would go with E-rod,Owens and Johnson, Porcello is here for good. Kelly is cheap , I would try to move Miley. I don't know about Buch.but I tell you I can't count on him. Again maybe pickup option hopefully he starts pitching good and try to flip him to someone who is desperate like what happened this year at the deadline.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 8, 2015 23:39:39 GMT -5
To me Less is more and I want to make a top of the rotation starter a priority without draft pick compentation. Address the bullpen. I don't mind picking up a DFA guy but more for competition in spring training not basically peciling him in for a spot in the pen. This team would of made a push for the playoffs if there was a commitment from the FO on that bullpen. How did Taz's arm not fall off? My idea from the pen is hopefully a couple of spots go to the kids and bring in one or two veterans. A side note Dave has to address the rule five guys so he might from that pool make a move or two. I am sure some of these leeches are gonna pick up these kids. We have to stock other teams for them. The O's grabbing Garcia was terrible no matter how bad he did they were gonna keep him because he throws upper 90's. The lineup is pretty good and I would keep these at warm for Devers and Moncada who will replace Petey and Panda. In a perfect world I would go with E-rod,Owens and Johnson, Porcello is here for good. Kelly is cheap , I would try to move Miley. I don't know about Buch.but I tell you I can't count on him. Again maybe pickup option hopefully he starts pitching good and try to flip him to someone who is desperate like what happened this year at the deadline. This plan "less is more" means less wins. We can't do nothing. This team needs 2 top of rotation pitchers, a complete bullpen overhaul and could use a power bat. The only way this happens is to use draft picks and/or the farm system. Of all of the potential starters only Bucholtz and Erod can realistically evan be that and odds are neither of them are that next year. And the bullpen has really no internal options that project to be late inning guys. I love all of the young players, and we can have a real exciting offence, but it potentially lacks power other than a 41 year old. There are a lot of options to improve this team, but in know way do I want to finish out of the picture again next year and JH didnt bring DD in here to stand pact
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 9, 2015 7:05:19 GMT -5
Not sure what you mean by "use draft picks and/ or the farm system" since draft picks are, by and large, the farm system. Do you mean trade farm prospects, or use them to strengthen the parent club?
Note: I think you mean "pat" , not " pact".
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2015 13:05:14 GMT -5
Version 3.0 (changes from last in red):
Rotation: Trade Acquisition Buchholz Porcello Rodriguez Hill (limited innings) / Wright
Bullpen: Uehara RH setup acquisition
LH setup acquisition
Tazawa Ross Layne Kelly (short, long, and spot starter, the old Workman role) Wright / Hill (short and long)
Ogando Machi (traded in ST if everyone is healthy)
Lineup: Pedroia 4 Betts 8 Ortiz 0 Bogaerts 6 Ramirez 3 * Bradley 9 (too streaky to hit leadoff) Castillo 7 Swihart 2 Sandoval 5
*Anyone who thinks they have an opinion on keeping or dumping Hanley that trumps DDo's is a fool. The Sox know how good he has looked at 1B and how well or poorly he actually fit in the clubhouse, while we're just guessing. This is my guess. If they dump him, I'm fine with it, but I'd like them to pick up someone better than Shaw.
DL: Vazquez
Bench: Hanigan Holt Shaw Acquisition (RHH 1B / OF)
Traded: [Owens if prudent], Margot, Miley, Marrero, Escobar (out of options; throw-in) FA: Breslow Non-tender: Cook DFAd: Ogando, Varvaro, Coyle, Brentz, Craig, Leon, Mendez
Optioned Players
PP: Cecchini Hernandez Rutledge
SP: Buttery Johnson Owens or low-ceiling, high floor 5th starter type, MLB-ready by mid-season, obtained in trade
RP: Aro Barnes Hembree Light Ramirez Workman
That's 39, leaving room for a waiver wire pick-up or interesting return player in a trade, or to look at Escobar in ST, or to hold onto any one of the DFA's that seems wise. Or we may need that spot temporarily because we're trading four players and acquiring three.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 3, 2015 13:18:52 GMT -5
Trading for someone like Carrasco isnt worth emptying out the farm system, which is what it would take. We are more than one or two pieces away from contending again. We're a rebuilding, below 500 ball club.
Trading for a rental pitcher in the offseason, or, at the trade deadline if everything else is going better than expected makes much more sense. The cost will be a lot more reasonable.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 3, 2015 22:20:48 GMT -5
Version 3.0 (changes from last in red): Rotation:Trade Acquisition Buchholz Porcello Rodriguez Hill (limited innings) / Wright Bullpen:
Uehara RH setup acquisition LH setup acquisition
Tazawa Ross Layne Kelly (short, long, and spot starter, the old Workman role) Wright / Hill (short and long)
Ogando Machi (traded in ST if everyone is healthy) Lineup:Pedroia 4 Betts 8Ortiz 0 Bogaerts 6 Ramirez 3 * Bradley 9 (too streaky to hit leadoff)Castillo 7Swihart 2Sandoval 5 *Anyone who thinks they have an opinion on keeping or dumping Hanley that trumps DDo's is a fool. The Sox know how good he has looked at 1B and how well or poorly he actually fit in the clubhouse, while we're just guessing. This is my guess. If they dump him, I'm fine with it, but I'd like them to pick up someone better than Shaw. DL: Vazquez Bench:Hanigan Holt Shaw Acquisition (RHH 1B / OF) Traded: [Owens if prudent], Margot, Miley, Marrero, Escobar (out of options; throw-in) FA: Breslow Non-tender: Cook DFAd: Ogando, Varvaro, Coyle, Brentz, Craig, Leon, MendezOptioned PlayersPP: Cecchini Hernandez Rutledge SP: Buttery Johnson Owens or low-ceiling, high floor 5th starter type, MLB-ready by mid-season, obtained in trade
RP: Aro Barnes Hembree Light Ramirez Workman That's 39, leaving room for a waiver wire pick-up or interesting return player in a trade, or to look at Escobar in ST, or to hold onto any one of the DFA's that seems wise. Or we may need that spot temporarily because we're trading four players and acquiring three. Is it reasonable to keep putting Buchholz in the 2016 rotation when we know he can not physically hold up for a full year?
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 3, 2015 22:47:12 GMT -5
Version 3.0 (changes from last in red): Rotation:Trade Acquisition Buchholz Porcello Rodriguez Hill (limited innings) / Wright Bullpen:
Uehara RH setup acquisition LH setup acquisition
Tazawa Ross Layne Kelly (short, long, and spot starter, the old Workman role) Wright / Hill (short and long)
Ogando Machi (traded in ST if everyone is healthy) Lineup:Pedroia 4 Betts 8Ortiz 0 Bogaerts 6 Ramirez 3 * Bradley 9 (too streaky to hit leadoff)Castillo 7Swihart 2Sandoval 5 *Anyone who thinks they have an opinion on keeping or dumping Hanley that trumps DDo's is a fool. The Sox know how good he has looked at 1B and how well or poorly he actually fit in the clubhouse, while we're just guessing. This is my guess. If they dump him, I'm fine with it, but I'd like them to pick up someone better than Shaw. DL: Vazquez Bench:Hanigan Holt Shaw Acquisition (RHH 1B / OF) Traded: [Owens if prudent], Margot, Miley, Marrero, Escobar (out of options; throw-in) FA: Breslow Non-tender: Cook DFAd: Ogando, Varvaro, Coyle, Brentz, Craig, Leon, MendezOptioned PlayersPP: Cecchini Hernandez Rutledge SP: Buttery Johnson Owens or low-ceiling, high floor 5th starter type, MLB-ready by mid-season, obtained in trade
RP: Aro Barnes Hembree Light Ramirez Workman That's 39, leaving room for a waiver wire pick-up or interesting return player in a trade, or to look at Escobar in ST, or to hold onto any one of the DFA's that seems wise. Or we may need that spot temporarily because we're trading four players and acquiring three. Is it reasonable to keep putting Buchholz in the 2016 rotation when we know he can not physically hold up for a full year? Yes. You can address that issue by having quality depth, and Eric's projection with Kelly and Wright/Hill around to step into the rotation begins to do that. But it's certainly reasonable to be nervous about a rotation that hinges the health of both Buchholz and Hill. Wright and Kelly could step in, sure, but we may want a more reliable option. It partially depends on how good the ace trade acquisition is. As for the rest of Eric's roster: I don't see a point in bringing back Machi, regardless of the status of everyone else. He's done being a valuable bullpen piece, and I'd rather give that spot to Hembree, Aro, or a cheap FA. I'm a believer in Hanley at 1B in 2016. Not a believer that he'll necessarily be anything close to solid there defensively, but there's plenty of reason to believe the potent bat will resurface with a healed shoulder. Once he hits, he'll reestablish his trade value and we can move him then, if we want to. Shaw can still fill a useful role on the team, grabbing occasional starts at first (and coming in defensively), sharing time with Pablo at third, and maybe even in left field -- It'd be nice to get his bat in there against some tougher righties, and his defense, while below average, would be bearable in sporadic time. I like the way you constructed the batting order, but there's just no way Farrell/Lovullo trot out anything close to that. Defensively, I'm still in favor of Castillo-JBJ-Mookie 7-8-9 if the team won't shift them around. Mookie's arm, while still the weakest of the group, has been surprisingly impressive as of late.
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Post by mgoetze on Oct 4, 2015 10:37:50 GMT -5
I dunno, penciling in an 85 wRC+ player as the starting LFer seems like something the Twins would do, not the Red Sox.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 4, 2015 12:24:47 GMT -5
@scottlauber: Lovullo said #RedSox have directed Hanley to report to spring training 15-20 pounds lighter than he played at this season
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 4, 2015 12:25:46 GMT -5
@scottlauber: Lovullo said #RedSox have directed Hanley to report to spring training 15-20 pounds lighter than he played at this season That's good news, if he doesn't get traded.
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 4, 2015 14:20:35 GMT -5
What about Panda? Those two have no one to blame but them selves. They need to look in the mirror . I feel bad for Orsillo. I remember those commercials with Wakefield and he called him announcer boy.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 4, 2015 15:28:22 GMT -5
What about Panda? Those two have no one to blame but them selves. They need to look in the mirror . I feel bad for Orsillo. I remember those commercials with Wakefield and he called him announcer boy. They told him to show up to spring training about 60-80 pounds lighter.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 4, 2015 23:21:28 GMT -5
What about Panda? Those two have no one to blame but them selves. They need to look in the mirror . I feel bad for Orsillo. I remember those commercials with Wakefield and he called him announcer boy. They told him to show up to spring training about 60-80 pounds lighter. I think the sox will stick with sandavol, but I do not see him losing much weight or decreasing the number of bad pitches he swings at. Rameriez is the guy they need to get creative in cobbling together a ticket out of town for him,
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Post by SlugLife on Oct 5, 2015 4:54:07 GMT -5
...sandavol...Rameriez... Are you just trolling the rest of us with those spellings?
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 5, 2015 8:59:22 GMT -5
I think Henry did the right thing in bringing in DD now. This team has a lot of good going on and some questionable signings also.
To me we are stuck with some guys next year so if I include them it is not that I want. Them but you have to be reasonable.
Starting , we have to go all out for Price we need that alpha pitcher. Then I see E-Rod, we are stuck with Porcello, I like what I see with Owens, Johnson gets a shot. I am still thinking but one of Kelly or Buch. These two have value so they are assets to keep around. Miley will be traded for bullpen help. Bullpen I like Taz and Kuji has one more year. I would make a call about Pap and Chapman. The kids here I would give a shot. To is Barnes,Workman,Noe Ramirez. I like Layne,Ross too. I want to look at Light, Kyle Martin. So these guys with what Miley gets us should be a good start. The outfield for now is all set JBJ,Betts,Castillo. But a side note Castillo is being watched hopefully Margot if not traded replaces him and he could get us an asset. The infield is the same we are stuck with Panda and hopefully he is a better player than that. Shaw if he doesn't stick at first and they keep Hanley this guy should make the bench because Hanley is always hurt and you know what you have with Shaw at least for now with Travis in Portland. We need a good bench because Petey is not the same anymore . Ortiz is DH at 40. Catching I like the two kids for next year we don't know how healthy Vasquez will be with the elbow. I think Hannigan will get us also bullpen help to trade . Also keepLeon in AaA for backup. The Sox have to hope the kids keep progressing also. I don't know about Farrell but i like the coaches. This offseason will be busy.
The real bullpen arms are not ready yet ,they consist of the last two drafts in my opinion so the answers are there as long as they don't do anything stupid. Devers and Moncada will replace Panda and Petey to have a sick infield in two years. Please Dave don't touch these kids and Little Pedro ,you can throw in My paisan Benintendi
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 5, 2015 13:07:12 GMT -5
Eric, is there any reason you wouldn't hit Betts leadoff? He's practically the leadoff prototype, imo. OBP could stnad to go up but I think it will based on the skills he displayed in the minors.
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