SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Update: Red Sox sign Napoli for one year, $5m
|
Post by grandsalami on Dec 3, 2012 11:17:31 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheymancbs Napoli has deal with red sox, 3 yrs, $39M
jmei edit: changed title. See rest of thread for updates.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Dec 3, 2012 11:23:58 GMT -5
A little rich, but no matter. Solid pickup at no talent cost.
|
|
|
Post by soxrchamps07 on Dec 3, 2012 11:30:00 GMT -5
Agreed, but I assume the high AAV is due to the Sox not going a 4th year, which is something I think we all are glad they didn't give Napoli.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Dec 3, 2012 11:33:48 GMT -5
Slightly above market value. Not a backbreaking contract. I like it. I'd figure close to 30 home runs, .350 OBP, 500 Slg%.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2012 11:34:19 GMT -5
At this price, he has to produce roughly a total of 7 WAR over the three years to break even (at $5.5m per WAR). Napoli has produced 10.4 fWAR over the last three years and 4.5 fWAR per 600 PAs over his career. Granted, a lot of that was at catcher, but he's produced 2 batting wins per 162 games with his bat alone, and absent significant offensive decline, he should be well worth his contract.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Dec 3, 2012 11:34:50 GMT -5
I am assuming (or hoping) this deal is front loaded for luxury tax purposes.
|
|
|
Post by honkbal on Dec 3, 2012 11:35:13 GMT -5
Glad they got it done without a fourth year. The AAV is a little higher than I would have preferred/expected, but it isn't crazy. If he stays healthy and hits the way he knows how the contract could still be a good value.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2012 11:35:19 GMT -5
Luxury tax calculations are based off AAV, so front- or back-loading won't matter.
|
|
badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 390
|
Post by badfishnbc on Dec 3, 2012 11:36:28 GMT -5
I am assuming (or hoping) this deal is front loaded for luxury tax purposes. I read that everything is expected to be front-loaded this off-season because of looming federal tax implications...
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Dec 3, 2012 11:38:55 GMT -5
At this price, he has to produce roughly 7 WAR to break even (at $5.5m per WAR). Napoli has produced 10.4 fWAR over the last three years and 4.5 fWAR per 600 PAs over his career. Granted, a lot of that was at catcher, but he's produced 2 batting wins per 162 games with his bat alone, and absent significant offensive decline, he should be well worth his contract. The advantage of moving him off catcher, is that you get his bat in the lineup everyday.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2012 11:44:42 GMT -5
Love the deal. Just like the Gomes deal, what's it matter if it's 2-3M more per year than he's really "worth"? There's no reason to believe that it will hinder the team from spending a few million more on other players with the massive difference between current payroll obligations and the luxury tax, so it's a great deal. Being able to stick to 3 years is great as well.
I wonder how Texas feels after not giving him the qualifying offer
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Dec 3, 2012 11:44:59 GMT -5
The Sox don't forfeit their 2nd round pick with this signing -- but several other FA targets they're reportedly interested in (Hamilton, Swisher, Lohse) would cost a pick. So I'm not sure we'll escape on that score.
... doubt they sign Lohse, and if it means they don't sign Swisher I'll be ecstatic -- Sox don't need more bad mojo.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Dec 3, 2012 11:46:36 GMT -5
Luxury tax calculations are based off AAV, so front- or back-loading won't matter. Well, if you go over the luxury tax limit, in the third year, and are only paying Napoli 8 million dollars, then you have more money available to actually pay the luxury tax, assuming the budget for the team each year is salary plus tax payments. So if John Henry gives me 200 million dollars a year to spend on players (salary+taxes). If in year one I will not hit 200 million, but I might in year three, I would like to move some of that money from year three to year one. Maybe I am just over-thinking budgeting concerns.
|
|
|
Post by nexus on Dec 3, 2012 11:47:36 GMT -5
This was an obvious signing after Twins insisted Mauer was not available. Napoli's 4.4ish pitches per plate appearance the last two years are exactly what this team needs. That ranks right at the top for players with a min of 400 PAs.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 3, 2012 11:48:50 GMT -5
I like it. Would him catching, say, 45 games allow them to add a player like Jerry Sands and give them more flexibility? This of course means moving Salty and demoting Lavarnway (or trading).
I could see having just Ross and Napoli as the two catchers, with Napoli playing 1st base most of the time, making us a little short. But Sands could play a fair amount in the OF, as a 1st baseman, and as a pinch-hitter.
Anyway.....I like his bat and his personality to fit in well.
|
|
|
Post by kindasweaty on Dec 3, 2012 12:07:20 GMT -5
Love the deal. Just like the Gomes deal, what's it matter if it's 2-3M more per year than he's really "worth" The only reason I'd be wary of giving every player an extra couple mil to keep them at fewer years is that future free agents are always looking at what player X got a year earlier and how they compare to them. So that takes their price tag from 9 mil to 11 mil, or 13 mil to 15-16 mil. This consistent overpay doesn't help their future pursuits.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 3, 2012 12:09:17 GMT -5
I've always loved Napoli's bat, and given the price of good offensive first baseman these days, 3/39 is really a pretty good deal. And the fact that he gives the Red Sox some flexibility at catcher is the cherry on top. Fantastic signing.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 3, 2012 12:11:11 GMT -5
Luxury tax calculations are based off AAV, so front- or back-loading won't matter. Well, if you go over the luxury tax limit, in the third year, and are only paying Napoli 8 million dollars, then you have more money available to actually pay the luxury tax, assuming the budget for the team each year is salary plus tax payments. So if John Henry gives me 200 million dollars a year to spend on players (salary+taxes). If in year one I will not hit 200 million, but I might in year three, I would like to move some of that money from year three to year one. Maybe I am just over-thinking budgeting concerns. What you're missing is that by front loading you are spending money which isn't accruing interest over the next two years. So you actually lose money by front-loading on the whole. I'm assuming Henry isn't so static on payroll as to give them a preset amount of money for salaries and take that money away if it isn't spent. He would be a very poor owner if he did this.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2012 12:12:47 GMT -5
I see them moving Salty and Keeping Lavarnway/Ross/Napoli together on the roster. Lavarnway as your "everyday" catcher, napoli catching 40-50 games, Ross catching occasionally/platoon type
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Dec 3, 2012 12:16:59 GMT -5
My guess is Salty to CWS for Gavin Floyd. With another established starter, Jon Lester can thus be traded for Myers or a part of a package for Upton.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2012 12:19:05 GMT -5
I see them moving Salty and Keeping Lavarnway/Ross/Napoli together on the roster. Lavarnway as your "everyday" catcher, napoli catching 40-50 games, Ross catching occasionally/platoon type They've already said Ross will catch more than the standard backup C. If all three are on the roster, I'd actually expect Ross to catch the most games between the three, by far.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2012 12:21:02 GMT -5
I think this is a great deal, especially in light of teams like the Dodgers that are constantly inflating the market and the flood of new TV money which threatens to push free-agent contracts ever higher. Keep in mind that a league-average player is now paid roughly $11m a year. Napoli is a well-above average offensive player even for a first basemen (in his worst season, Napoli hit .227/.343/.469; league-average 1B hit .262/.336/.442 in 2012), and as long as he is reasonably healthy, he only needs to be not-terrible defensively to be worth his contract.
|
|
|
Post by kindasweaty on Dec 3, 2012 12:40:54 GMT -5
Keep in mind that a league-average player is now paid roughly $11m a year. Something about this doesn't sit right. That's post-Free Agency right? And am I the only one that thinks the Gavin Floyd-Salty deal would have to include a 5-10 prospect going from Boston to Chicago?
|
|
|
Post by patrmac04 on Dec 3, 2012 12:41:12 GMT -5
I've always loved Napoli's bat, and given the price of good offensive first baseman these days, 3/39 is really a pretty good deal. And the fact that he gives the Red Sox some flexibility at catcher is the cherry on top. Fantastic signing. A-men Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2012 12:44:38 GMT -5
BJ Upton got $15.05M AAV for five years and Atlanta gave up a pick.
In that market, signing Napoli for $13M AAV for three years and no pick when you have tons of financial flexibility is solid. Yes, it's a bit of an overpay, but it's an overpay with the purpose of shortening the length of the deal. Getting the flexibility to do that was the whole point of the Punto trade.
|
|
|