SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Update: Red Sox sign Napoli for one year, $5m
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 3, 2012 12:45:10 GMT -5
I want David Ross to catch most of our games!!
I have no problem with Napoli catching a few, but the more times for Ross behind the plate......the better for our defense.
Salty part of a trade for Gavin Floyd makes too much sense. The White Sox badly need a catcher.....and a left-handed one is even better to platoon with Tyler Flowers.
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Dec 3, 2012 12:45:58 GMT -5
Keep in mind that a league-average player is now paid roughly $11m a year. Something about this doesn't sit right. That's post-Free Agency right? And am I the only one that thinks the Gavin Floyd-Salty deal would have to include a 5-10 prospect going from Boston to Chicago? Looks like a wash to me. Floyd, at age 30, is a middle of the rotation starter with one year left on his contract (option). Salty is three years younger, an everyday player at a skill position, also with one year left on his deal.
|
|
sarcasmo
Rookie
Formerly known as mtomeo
Posts: 91
|
Post by sarcasmo on Dec 3, 2012 13:04:55 GMT -5
Good signing! As others have stated, in order to avoid the extra year, you must overpay a bit.
Does this mean Pedey get's bumped from his Emergency Catcher role?
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Dec 3, 2012 13:16:49 GMT -5
Solid deal, I actually like Napoli very much as a player. Hope this means Salty becomes a part-time player, which I think is sadly his best spot.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 3, 2012 13:18:49 GMT -5
I still don't even really buy that this is an overpay. It's certainly not an overpay in the context of the Red Sox 2013-15 budget. But even in a vacum, $13m a year for a first baseman isn't crazy money these days. Allen Craig hit .307/.354/.522 last year and Fangraphs valued his contributions at $14.0m. Napoli is a .259/.356/.507 career hitter.
|
|
wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,814
|
Post by wcp3 on Dec 3, 2012 13:23:05 GMT -5
This is a great deal for three reasons: 1. Napoli should rake at Fenway. 2. He gives the team terrific flexibility with his ability to play multiple positions. 3. It means the Sox will be trading Salty. Hallelujah.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Dec 3, 2012 13:26:58 GMT -5
I wonder if Butler or Vazquez will be on the block, now or more likely later? Napoli may not catch much but presumably he's third on the 40-man catching depth chart out of 5, which seems one too many over a full season.
|
|
|
Post by alfmendolson on Dec 3, 2012 13:44:39 GMT -5
I love it. I wanted to get him when he left the Angels just so we wouldn't have to watch him crush us anymore. Now let's go get Andino and call it a day.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2012 14:07:37 GMT -5
I see them moving Salty and Keeping Lavarnway/Ross/Napoli together on the roster. Lavarnway as your "everyday" catcher, napoli catching 40-50 games, Ross catching occasionally/platoon type They've already said Ross will catch more than the standard backup C. If all three are on the roster, I'd actually expect Ross to catch the most games between the three, by far. I must have missed that. Hadn't seen any comment about how many games Ross would actually get. I'm just not sure how they hope to get Lavarnway to progress as a major league hitter if he doesn't get consistent AB's. Maybe you put him back in AAA and call him up if u have an injury at C/DH. Another half year to a year in Pawtucket probably won't hurt his progression, but if he's your long term plan, he's got to get a chance
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Dec 3, 2012 14:13:11 GMT -5
I like the signing and glad we did not have to go to 4 years, but now we really need Ben to do something to bolster a pitching staff that gave up over 800 runs last year.
|
|
|
Post by Gwell55 on Dec 3, 2012 14:32:05 GMT -5
This is a great deal for three reasons: 1. Napoli should rake at Fenway. 2. He gives the team terrific flexibility with his ability to play multiple positions. 3. It means the Sox will be trading Salty. Hallelujah. 4. Ortiz now plays 1st against NL teams with a better bat behind the plate. 5 Nappy is happy with his promise catching and Sox limits of a few games is satisfied.
|
|
|
Post by sdsoxfan on Dec 3, 2012 14:51:57 GMT -5
Slight overpay as I was hoping for 3-4 years at $10-11m per, but Sox management was sold on Napoli and Sox didn't have good backup plan at first base. Hope he can play a little defense at first. Will be fun to have another power hitting right hander with some patience at plate putting up good numbers at Fenway (SSS, but only righthanders who hit better at Fenway are Kingman and Robinson). Napoli should provide protection for Ortiz and take some pressure off Middlebrooks.
Let's hope that we can get a reasonable 2y/$13m deal done with Ross or Victorino and save our second round pick rather than sign Swisher at 4y/$60m which will cause me to vomit).
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Dec 3, 2012 15:16:02 GMT -5
Another RH hitter with power and better plate discipline than the team has experienced the past year or two. Sox are recommitting to basic principles. This will likely improve the Fenway record too. The friendly confines will hopefully add to Napoli's BA as well. I am somewhat surprised that with all his power, he has never had more than 68 rbis in a season. Signing Ross would give us three at least "Fenway" mashers. Even then I think we would need another solid LH hitting outfielder (not named Nava please) as a platoon guy.
The bricks are steadily being put in place. With what we had to work with in free agency, things look good so far. No long committments and no draft picks squandered.
Salty looks more and more like the odd man out.
|
|
|
Post by charliezink16 on Dec 3, 2012 17:38:39 GMT -5
Anyway.....I like his bat and his personality to fit in well. Couldn't agree more Steve. Something that is understated is the importance of establishing a solid team chemistry, just the way our previous WS teams had, and guys like Gomes, Napoli, and Swisher fit that profile. Not to mention that Napoli gets on base at an absurd rate, and has an average pitch per plate appearance that is on par with none other than Kevin Youkilis. While some mistaken Napoli as a dead pull hitter, actually only 50% of his HR's were hit to LF last season, but that should still translate to great success in Fenway, I think we can expect 30 HR's from him while seeing everyday at-bats. Though it is a SSS, Sands hits lefties better (.316/.372/.532) while Napoli was more effective vs. RHP last season, and hits for much more power vs RHP's, so if Sands makes the team I could see him getting some AB's vs lefties. Overall though, great move for this team, not much of an overpay, and a 3 year contract isn't something that will hurt this team in the long term at all. I know that some people wanted a 1-year stop gap, maybe with Mauro or Sands playing 1B this year, but where would that put us in 2014? There is no Anthony Rizzo type player coming up in our system, so a stop gap isn't neccesary, and now we don't have to go out and trade for an all-star 1B and give a 7 year deal to. So overall, great deal IMO.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2012 17:52:59 GMT -5
At this price, he has to produce roughly a total of 7 WAR over the three years to break even (at $5.5m per WAR). Napoli has produced 10.4 fWAR over the last three years and 4.5 fWAR per 600 PAs over his career. Granted, a lot of that was at catcher, but he's produced 2 batting wins per 162 games with his bat alone, and absent significant offensive decline, he should be well worth his contract. I see a lot of averaging of career stats which implies expectations that Napoli's. One thing to keep in mind when using a mean number is that one outlier can skew that number a great deal. in 2011 Napoli had a year that is out of character for the rest of his career. He had double the WAR he's ever had and had a .341 BABIP which is 50 points above his career average. He's not likely to do that again. You take that out he's produced roughly half a win less per 600 PAs throughout his career. If Napoli had played mostly 1B during his career time as opposed to caught as it's likely he'll do with the Sox his WAR per 600 PAs would have been 3.6. If you combine these two factors. Napoli's actual WAR per 600 PAs is 2.3. Keep in mind that Napoli has never reached 600 PAs in his career. In my opinion it's very unlikely that Napoli makes that 7 win threshold unless he either catches a lot or has at least one more year like he did in 2011. It doesn't appear he's going to be catching much and I don't think he'll have another year in his 30s like he did in 2011. In other words Napoli is going to have to perform far better in his 30s than he did in his 20s.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Dec 3, 2012 18:01:18 GMT -5
In other words Napoli is going to have to perform far better in his 30s than he did in his 20s. When we look at his performance in three years and exclude every month that he exceeded his career averages, I don't see how he'll be able to do it.
|
|
|
Post by jt44 on Dec 3, 2012 18:54:20 GMT -5
The best part about this deal is now when Mike Napoli hits 2 HRs per game at Fenway, we can all be happy about it.
This guy absolutely has killed the RS over the last several years. I was getting so sick of him and his un-buttoned uniform trotting around the bases, but now we can all look forward to the sight of it!
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 3, 2012 19:04:45 GMT -5
If you combine these two factors. Napoli's actual WAR per 600 PAs is 2.3. Keep in mind that Napoli has never reached 600 PAs in his career.As the main catcher on his team he's never reached 600 PAs. I'm sure you'll acknowledge it's far more difficult to reach 600 PAs at catcher than first. The only year of his career where he was allowed to play 1B more than catch was 2010, and he played in 140 games and logged 510 PA's. Even that year he basically split time between the positions (67 games started at 1B, 59 at catcher). I doubt he's been brought in to catch 60+ games per year, he's more likely to be the full time 1B, and as a result he'll be on the field more.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 3, 2012 20:30:05 GMT -5
Yeah, solid signing, and "overpay" doesn't have the same relevance in this situation. You're odd million or two here and there is worth less to the Red Sox than your average WAR valuation.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2012 21:02:09 GMT -5
In other words Napoli is going to have to perform far better in his 30s than he did in his 20s. When we look at his performance in three years and exclude every month that he exceeded his career averages, I don't see how he'll be able to do it. No you are excluding one year that is far and away better than anything he's done in the past and was supported by a BABIP 45 points above his career average. If you think that he can do this even once in his 31-33 years then it's a very good signing. But I think you'd need some basis for that.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2012 21:02:56 GMT -5
I see a lot of averaging of career stats which implies expectations that Napoli's. One thing to keep in mind when using a mean number is that one outlier can skew that number a great deal. in 2011 Napoli had a year that is out of character for the rest of his career. He had double the WAR he's ever had and had a .341 BABIP which is 50 points above his career average. He's not likely to do that again. You take that out he's produced roughly half a win less per 600 PAs throughout his career. Just as if you can't assume he will repeat his 2011, you also can't pretend it didn't happen. Just as he outperformed his career BABIP in 2011 (.344), he significantly underperformed it in 2010 (.279) and 2012 (.273). Most memorably, his career BABIP of .299 is identical to his 2006-2009 BABIP (.299) and his 2010-12 BABIP (.299). His batted ball profiles are remarkably similar over 2010-12 (no more than a 2% fluctuation in any given year) other than an uptick in HR/FB caused by a move in stadiums that carried over to both 2011 and 2012. His plate discipline numbers are also fairly consistent aside from a one-year uptick in contact in 2011 that may or may not reappear. Taking the three-year sample (or career sample) is not cherrypicking on my part. It is because the best tool for projecting future performance is past performance, especially the most recent seasons. It is also because using the three-year sample (a) gives you a bigger sample size and (b) his "luck" stats in that sample match up well with his career stats (.299 BABIP is identical to his career, 23.1% HR/FB is close enough to his career 20.3% once you adjust for stadium). If Napoli had played mostly 1B during his career time as opposed to caught as it's likely he'll do with the Sox his WAR per 600 PAs would have been 3.6. If you combine these two factors. Napoli's actual WAR per 600 PAs is 2.3. Keep in mind that Napoli has never reached 600 PAs in his career. A 3.6 WAR player is "worth" $19.8m per year, assuming $5.5m per WAR (the number I've been seeing cited of late). I've discussed above why I don't think you can just throw out Napoli's 2011, but even ignoring that I think your math might be wrong-- if removing 2011 only reduced Napoli's WAR/600 PAs by .5 when he was a catcher, why does it reduce it by 1.3 when adjusted to 1B? I also present the following 2013 projections (the only ones that are available, as far as I know): Marcel: .262/.359/.518, 377 wOBA CAIRO: .266/.358/.518, .376 wOBA BIS/Bill James: .248/.350/.498, .359 wOBA The BIS/Bill James projected wOBA (the lowest of the projections released to date) would have ranked 9th among first basemen in 2012. The four players in 2012 who performed most similarly to Napoli's projected 2013 offensive performance (Adam LaRoche, Albert Pujols, Corey Hart, Garrett Jones) averaged out to a 3.13 WAR.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 3, 2012 22:08:22 GMT -5
Am I the only one who doesn't like the Napoli signing? Can't stay healthy, awful 1st baseman who makes a very good infield D suspect, and a skill set that looks like it is in decline. I would've rather had Youk on a 1 yr, Swisher on a 3 yr, or even a Youk/Pena platoon at first.
And I still think Cherrington is in waaaay over his head.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 3, 2012 22:17:43 GMT -5
Am I the only one who doesn't like the Napoli signing? Yup.
|
|
|
Post by ray88h66 on Dec 3, 2012 22:22:29 GMT -5
Am I the only one who doesn't like the Napoli signing? Can't stay healthy, awful 1st baseman who makes a very good infield D suspect, and a skill set that looks like it is in decline. I would've rather had Youk on a 1 yr, Swisher on a 3 yr, or even a Youk/Pena platoon at first. And I still think Cherrington is in waaaay over his head. Not sure if you're the only one but it's a minority opionion for sure.
|
|
|
Post by mainesox on Dec 3, 2012 22:31:31 GMT -5
Am I the only one who doesn't like the Napoli signing? Can't stay healthy, awful 1st baseman who makes a very good infield D suspect, and a skill set that looks like it is in decline. I would've rather had Youk on a 1 yr, Swisher on a 3 yr, or even a Youk/Pena platoon at first. And I still think Cherrington is in waaaay over his head. Is he injury prone, or did he just get a lot of time off because he was a catcher and Scioscia had a thing for Mathis? Also, according to every defensive metric he's essentially average at 1B.
|
|
|