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Update: Red Sox sign Napoli for one year, $5m
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 8, 2012 19:09:18 GMT -5
Whether one looks at 2006-2010 or thru 2012, cumulatively Napoli has statistically under-performed vis a vis the league with men on base or men in scoring position versus his record with the bases empty even with his fantastic 2011 season (anomaly?) included. Below is a link with 40 plus situational hitting stats re Napoli thru 2012. To me they show that he performs best with no runners on base both in average and most definitely in slugging. His OBP is slightly better with RISP but not so "with runners on". Look, I want him to do well too. I hope, as SteveofBradenton predicts, he hits 35 bombs, drives in a passel and the Sox ride into the sunset. I would rather not get my hopes up and be surprised to the positive. sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7754/situational;_ylt=ArHYE0Ui_DK7mwkrhUoImbmFCLcF?year=2012&type=Batting
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 8, 2012 19:47:25 GMT -5
We can't draw any conclusions about his performance from this data because of the small samples involved. RISP has all of 98 AB backing it up. That's not enough to dip your toe into the stream of statistical accuracy.
Coming to you from the northern plains
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Post by mainesox on Dec 8, 2012 20:10:18 GMT -5
Napoli has a 119 wRC+ for his career with RISP; since 2000 the highest the league average wRC+ with RISP is 98. So he's still a well above league average hitter with RISP, and a few of the hitters with as bad, or worse, splits with RISP are Justin Upton, Cano, Stanton, Fielder (even in 2009 when he had 141 RBI he was almost 20 points worse with RISP), and Pedroia.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 8, 2012 20:22:30 GMT -5
Norm, thanks for your response. Maybe the link did not translate well but Napoli has 1250 ABs with the bases empty no matter the outs; 534 with none on and none out, 1020 with runners on, 593 with RISP, 266 with RISP and 2 outs There is a lot of data there.
His slugging declined from .596 with no one on and no outs to .549 with the bases empty no matter the outs to .455 with runners on to.429 with RISP and 2 out.
His averages similarly dropped from. 290 to .271 to .243 to .218 under the noted categories.
Again, I hope Napoli bats and slugs a ton. If he does, it will represent an aberration from the norm excepting his 1 in 7 career season which, I think, can reasonably be viewed at this point as an outlier.
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Post by jmei on Dec 8, 2012 22:15:31 GMT -5
Study after study has proven that "clutch" statistics aren't predictive. That is to say, performing poorly in those categories in the past doesn't mean players will perform poorly in those categories in the future. Yes, Napoli has performed worse with runners on than he has otherwise. But flip enough coins and you'll also see a bunch of tails in a row. That doesn't mean the next flip is any likelier to be heads or tails than the last. You're reading too much into a "pattern" that is most likely random noise.
The only meaningful response to this argument is just the intuition that some players are more clutch than others, and that alone isn't enough for me. If you want to believe it nonetheless, that's fine, but know that the best available research and data disagrees with you.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 8, 2012 22:46:19 GMT -5
Norm, thanks for your response. Maybe the link did not translate well but Napoli has 1250 ABs with the bases empty no matter the outs; 534 with none on and none out, 1020 with runners on, 593 with RISP, 266 with RISP and 2 outs There is a lot of data there. His slugging declined from .596 with no one on and no outs to .549 with the bases empty no matter the outs to .455 with runners on to.429 with RISP and 2 out. His averages similarly dropped from. 290 to .271 to .243 to .218 under the noted categories. Again, I hope Napoli bats and slugs a ton. If he does, it will represent an aberration from the norm excepting his 1 in 7 career season which, I think, can reasonably be viewed at this point as an outlier. It is the wrong link. It only shows 2012. But even with the 266, that's not enough to make fine grained decisions about batting order. I'm sure things will sort themselves out. With his very good OBP and his power, Napoli should get a seat at the table where he can either drive in runs or keep the conga line moving. Tom Tango's "The Book" has a section on building a lineup and which type of player should go where. That's a good place to go to figure stuff like this out. Maybe Farrell has a copy already. If not let's put it on the Christmas list. Coming to you from the northern plains
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Post by bluechip on Dec 11, 2012 20:06:05 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2012 20:25:55 GMT -5
Looks like just idle speculation on Rosenthal's part-- there's no report that anything went wrong during the physical, and the only irregularity is that the deal has not been announced yet, which could just be due to 40-man concerns.
Then again, maybe Rosenthal heard some off-the-record discussion that something was fishy and he decided to publish even without an anonymous source confirming things.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 11, 2012 20:25:56 GMT -5
Doubt it. The Sox still have to make room in the 40 man roster for Mike, Sandy, Koji and Shayne. Until that matter is cleared up, no announcements can be made. Sure, Mike could take the vacant 40th slot, but I believe, other moves are underway affecting the roster.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 11, 2012 20:27:01 GMT -5
All that Rosenthal's story says is that the press conference was delayed. Rotoworld, in their little blurb, which cites FoxSports, and thus Rosenthal and his article, states that evidently Sox didn't like something in his physical, even though Rosenthal makes no mention of it in his article, which is the only thing on record questioning the deal
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Post by mjammz on Dec 11, 2012 20:40:07 GMT -5
It would be such a P/R nightmare and just make this team look even more like a circus if this were to happen. Their #1 off-season target can't pass a physical, and they let 9 days go by in the meantime. They better just be waiting for another move to drop, because this organization doens't need something like this.
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Post by mjammz on Dec 11, 2012 20:50:00 GMT -5
Well, whatever happens with it.. the Sox are lucky that Swisher and LaRoche are still out there. I really don't want Laroche..whatever happens they better move fast if this falls apart
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 11, 2012 21:23:29 GMT -5
It would be such a P/R nightmare and just make this team look even more like a circus if this were to happen. Their #1 off-season target can't pass a physical, and they let 9 days go by in the meantime. They better just be waiting for another move to drop, because this organization doens't need something like this. A) As stated above, it's baseless speculation based on the fact that his physical was last week. The 40-man is at 39, with Napoli, Victorino, and Uehara yet to be added. My guess is they're planning to make room and it's taking a bit. B) Even if, in fact, the problem is his physical, how would that reflect poorly on the Red Sox? The point of the physical is to check him out before signing him. It's not like they were going to bring the team doctor to the Winter Meetings to examine him in the hotel room. C) What would the problem by with 9 days going by? What option did they miss out on? It's December - why is everyone so high strung around here? Pitchers and catchers don't report for another couple of months.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 11, 2012 21:26:51 GMT -5
C) Kevin Youkilis on a one-year deal to play first.
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Post by mjammz on Dec 11, 2012 21:28:45 GMT -5
It would be such a P/R nightmare and just make this team look even more like a circus if this were to happen. Their #1 off-season target can't pass a physical, and they let 9 days go by in the meantime. They better just be waiting for another move to drop, because this organization doens't need something like this. A) As stated above, it's baseless speculation based on the fact that his physical was last week. The 40-man is at 39, with Napoli, Victorino, and Uehara yet to be added. My guess is they're planning to make room and it's taking a bit. B) Even if, in fact, the problem is his physical, how would that reflect poorly on the Red Sox? The point of the physical is to check him out before signing him. It's not like they were going to bring the team doctor to the Winter Meetings to examine him in the hotel room. C) What would the problem by with 9 days going by? What option did they miss out on? It's December - why is everyone so high strung around here? Pitchers and catchers don't report for another couple of months. It's not that they would look bad it would just add to the "nothing going right" year that has happened around here. Thay have been quite lucky, that if it doesn't go through that Swisher and Laroche are still out there And after reading Rosenthal's article, there really is nothing in there, besides baseless speculation. And the points about clearing 40 man roster space, introducing all together do make me think there might be other moves in the works they are waiting to drop. And the Jonny Gomes signing wasn't announced for over 8 days so nothing to panic about... yet I guess. It would just be a major let down to get excited about a signing and then have it fall through so late after the fact.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 11, 2012 22:01:14 GMT -5
All Rosenthal's article says is that a physical was scheduled, a press conference had been scheduled, and that the deal hadn't been announced yet/press conference. It's really a fluff article, that wreaks of having nothing else to write about.
He's usually pretty good, so I'm kind of surprised that this report was put up
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 11, 2012 22:05:43 GMT -5
C) Kevin Youkilis on a one-year deal to play first. After seeing Youkilis last year, you'd have been willing to give him $12 million? And this assumes it was even an option - he's pretty much the only first base candidate the Sox haven't been connected to at all. Options B and C were LaRoche and Swisher and they're both still out there.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 11, 2012 22:39:22 GMT -5
C) Kevin Youkilis on a one-year deal to play first. After seeing Youkilis last year, you'd have been willing to give him $12 million? And this assumes it was even an option - he's pretty much the only first base candidate the Sox haven't been connected to at all. Options B and C were LaRoche and Swisher and they're both still out there. If the market is giving a platoon player like Victorino $13M a year for three years, I would've given Youk $12M on a 1 yr to play first, esp after seeing him hit 15 HRs with the White Sox in just under 300 ABs. Sox would get gold glove D on a short deal, with good OBP. He'll have less wear and tear at first and I think that hand will have fully healed. And despite his issues, he's been more durable over the last three years than Napoli. Option A should've been Swisher, but not at more than 4 yrs. His years request and the loss of a draft pick is likely why he hasn't been signed. He is more durable than Napoli with better OBP at a cost of 5-10 fewer HRs a year, but with better defense. Napoli would've been Option C.
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2012 22:53:50 GMT -5
Quick things: -Youkilis has not been "more durable" than Napoli, he has started more games because he's a 1B/3B and Napoli is a catcher. Napoli missed a month in 2012 on the DL with a hamstring issue, but Youkilis missed 22 games in April/May on the DL as well and has a lengthier injury history over 2009-11.
-It's a stretch to assume that Kevin Youkilis can play gold glove defense at 1B. He has soft hands but his range has declined precipitously at 3B and I don't see how that will improve with a move to1B. He's still probably around an average defender at worst, but his gold glove days are long behind him.
-Swisher is wasted at first base. One of his primary selling points is the ability to play an average right field. He loses 1.5 fWAR by moving from RF to 1B from the positional adjustment alone.
-Mike Napoli's career OBP is .356. Nick Swisher's is .361.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 11, 2012 23:32:55 GMT -5
My bad on career numbers. I was looking at splits over last three years. Since all three players are in declining years, a substantial recent sampling (ie last three years) seemed more reasonable for current comparison. But you're right, even within that standard Napoli's OBP is only .011 less than Swisher's. Then again, that puts Swisher at only 4 fewer HRs over the same period so all the better. Makes them virtually indistinguishable at first offensively whereas Swisher can also play a second position of need (RF) whereas Sox currently have 3 catchers other than Napoli (4 if you count Butler) and you appear to be of the same opinion as I am that he should be used sparingly behind the plate because of his injury history.
As for durability, I did mean Youk has played more games, but Napoli's injuries have been more wide ranging (shoulder, quad, hammy). Youk has flexibility to play 3rd but it is a poor tradeoff, and less a position of need unless Middlebrooks continues to have injury issues (he was plagued by hamstring issues before his season ending injury. The appeal of Youk rests in his sure hands, the one year contract and the fact that over the last three years he has played more games than Napoli while posting a .372OBP/.472 SLG. To hope that he hits that line in 2013 seems to be about as much of a gamble as the many here hoping the 2013s of Napoli (and Victorino for that matter) are closer to their 2011s than their 2012s. In short there is risk, but less than the three years of risk on Napoli (who has only exceeded 113 games played once in the last 3 years).
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Post by bluechip on Dec 12, 2012 9:38:01 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 12, 2012 9:54:07 GMT -5
Hey, someone actually doing some reporting! Go Gordo.
I also saw on Twitter that the M's had an issue with Napoli's hip. Wouldn't surprise me if this was just adding language to the contract.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 12, 2012 11:08:30 GMT -5
Source: Too strong to say #RedSox's deal with Napoli is in "jeopardy." Some issues still to work through.- Rosenthal
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Post by Guidas on Dec 12, 2012 11:26:40 GMT -5
If the front office (not naming names) wants to put the action behind the "discipline" message they touted earlier, they'd walk from Napoli if his medicals are troubling enough to give them pause and instead sign Swisher.
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 406
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Post by badfishnbc on Dec 12, 2012 15:18:32 GMT -5
If the front office (not naming names) wants to put the action behind the "discipline" message they touted earlier, they'd walk from Napoli if his medicals are troubling enough to give them pause and instead sign Swisher. Swisher still has compensation attached to him. He's being used as leverage in what remains of discussion with Hamilton.
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