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Poll: Who Should Be in Next Year's Rotation? VOTE FOR FIVE!
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Post by telson13 on Aug 12, 2015 14:38:09 GMT -5
I'm curious who the three noodleheads are who don't think Ed Rodriguez belongs in the rotation.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 12, 2015 17:07:52 GMT -5
I'm curious who the three noodleheads are who don't think Ed Rodriguez belongs in the rotation. Maybe some weirdos who are still watching Red Sox games.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 12, 2015 20:03:53 GMT -5
I'm curious who the three noodleheads are who don't think Ed Rodriguez belongs in the rotation. Maybe some weirdos who are still watching Red Sox games. I think pretty clearly, folks who want to sell more or less high on him and use him to get an established young starter.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 13, 2015 0:24:01 GMT -5
I'm curious who the three noodleheads are who don't think Ed Rodriguez belongs in the rotation. Maybe some weirdos who are still watching Red Sox games. If they're basing their judgments off of the five or so most recent starts in a 22-y/o pitcher's first year, I'm glad they're just watching. That sort of genius is best left away from baseball decision-making.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 13, 2015 0:33:48 GMT -5
Maybe some weirdos who are still watching Red Sox games. I think pretty clearly, folks who want to sell more or less high on him and use him to get an established young starter. I figured as much, although I'm sure there'll be a spate of folks jumping off of the bandwagon after tonight's stinker. Frankly, I'm of the mind that if the Sox can't draft/trade for their own talent, and develop it, then their problems run **way** deeper than the current mess of an MLB team. I guess I'm less than satisfied with their MLB talent evaluation to think they would get sufficient return in a Rodriguez trade. I smell shades of Wade Miley...they'd be better off with more years, for less, of Rubby. Paying more for similar performance isn't good business.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 13, 2015 8:36:32 GMT -5
Maybe some weirdos who are still watching Red Sox games. I think pretty clearly, folks who want to sell more or less high on him and use him to get an established young starter. Yeah, part of the reason I found this poll tough to vote in is that, yeah, I'd love for them to go get a front-line starter, but if that's happening via trade... hard to believe Eddie's not in the deal.
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Post by jdb on Aug 13, 2015 9:10:29 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 13, 2015 17:26:43 GMT -5
I think pretty clearly, folks who want to sell more or less high on him and use him to get an established young starter. Yeah, part of the reason I found this poll tough to vote in is that, yeah, I'd love for them to go get a front-line starter, but if that's happening via trade... hard to believe Eddie's not in the deal. Only if Swihart's stock has fallen a lot. He remains the obvious guy to go; he may well end up being better overall than Vazquez, but I don't think that happens until 2018 at the earliest.
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Post by soxcentral on Aug 22, 2015 10:39:26 GMT -5
Would love to see this poll done again at the end of the season. A lot can change in two months.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 22, 2015 11:09:10 GMT -5
Acquisition, Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Owens. Package Miley with some prospects (not swihart) for a first baseman.
No idea what to do with Kelly.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 22, 2015 15:54:10 GMT -5
Would love to see this poll done again at the end of the season. A lot can change in two months. Just change your vote! That was the plan from the beginning. It doesn't get locked until the season ends, and I don't think what we thought before (for example) we realized Buchholz isn't pitching again this year, or before the doubters realized that Owens' fastball plays up just as well in MLB, is historically interesting.
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Post by jclmontana on Aug 22, 2015 16:37:32 GMT -5
At this point, I think it is more constructive to lump a few of these categories. The differentiation between elite and 2/3 trade candidate doesn't seem very helpful. If they do make a trade, the trade will hopefully be for a ace through 2 type pitcher. I wouldn't think (or want) a trade for a number 3, why bother expending resources for small upgrades. Sure, a Hyundai might be noticibly better then your old Fiat, but better to just buy a Honda (or better).
Combining trade acquisition categories gives a virtual tie with free agent acquisition, which is probably reflective of a certain dissonance between wanting to keep all the kids, wanting to avoid another Crawford/Panda/Hanley signing, and wanting to get better immediately.
The Wright/Owens/Johnson splitting is noisy. If you combine the various Wright/Owens/Johnson votes, it would currently add up to 105 votes, ranking second. This reflects, I think, a desire/willigness/resignation to give a spot to one of the internal candidates, and I don't think anyone but the Knuckleball haters would argue that whoever is doing best next spring would get the initial nod.
I didn't vote for Miley because he is emminently tradable, but one could say the same about Wright /Owens/Johnson. Perhaps Owens continues to do better for the rest of the season and sets himself apart, but I really wonder if that is actually possible. Not that he cannot pitch well, but that any decision maker would trust his performance to be predictive. Hence, I think Wright, Owens, Johnson should be lumped.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 22, 2015 19:32:04 GMT -5
Being a GM is hard. We don't get judged on our stupid suggestions.
As of this point in time, I'm going with a major young trade acquisition, ERod, Owens, Porcello and Buchholz. But it changes every 5 minutes.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Aug 23, 2015 11:10:02 GMT -5
I wanted to see a couple more starts from both Rodriguez and see some starts from Owens before making a vote. As such, I think that next season we go with a major FA acquisition if and only if that's David Price. I'm of the opinion that you only pay big money long term deals for elite talent, and that's what I think David Price is. He has been an elite pitcher, in the AL, and has been very durable. Get him. Cueto is an elite talent, to be sure, but his arm injuries concern me and I don't like betting on the NL to AL transition. I could of course be talked into him, and I think he's a good pitcher, but I just feel it's Price or bust - and we have the money to get him.
Beyond the top of the rotation starter, I also chose acquiring a young number 2/3 starter. We have (at least) at top 3 farm system in baseball. Of that two of our "blocked" players are Manny Margot (we have three young CF already that are under control for a long time); and Javier Guerra (Bogaerts), along with one of Marrero and Hernandez (Bogaerts, Holt). Personally, I think a package of Margot, Guerra, one of Hernadnez / Marrero and one of Kopech, Ball, Stankewicz or Buttrey would get us a guy like Carlos Quintana or Carlos Carrasco.
Beyond that I think you make a decision between Porcello and Miley. My guess is that you could get more for Miley on the trade market (performance this year, contractual status), so its likely means Porcello stays and that's how I voted - but I wouldn't be opposed to moving him and keeping Miley, naturally. If for some reason you cannot acquire Price, you keep both of these guys.
Rodriguez and Owens have to be in the rotation next season. They've both learned all they can at AAA. I think Rodriguez is a number 3 already, and has number 2 upside. Owens there isn't enough data yet to say with any certainty what I think he is, but to project him as a 5 next year I believe is reasonable (but he has the potential to be a number 3 or 4 starter).
I think I'm in the minority that doesn't have Buchholz in the rotation. Quite frankly, I think using his $13m to be a large chunk of what it will cost to sign David Price is more than worth it. If there is still a way to trade him to a small market team that would want his option (think someone like Luis Heredia, Mitch Keller or Nick Kingham from Pittsburgh) I'd be all over that. If not, you decline the option.
Ideally - Price, Carrasco, Rodriguez, Porcello / Miley, Owens. Depth includes Wright, Johnson, Kelly (whom I think can still learn in AAA), Edwin Escobar and Cuevas.
If no Price, then it's Carrasco, Rodriguez, Porcello, Miley and Owens. Same depth applies, obviously.
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Post by jdb on Aug 25, 2015 9:50:00 GMT -5
So Joe Kelly?
Edit for Edes tweet
Scouts absolutely raving about Joe Kelly last night. One scout who saw him in May said he could not believe the transformation. 6:39pm - 25 Aug 15
Another scout raved about Kelly maintaining his velocity into the late innings and called his secondary stuff "plus-plus"
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Post by jchang on Aug 27, 2015 12:36:01 GMT -5
What a difference that can happen in a few weeks. I really do wish that we were not so quick to tar and feather a player in a slump, or otherwise in need of making adjustments. For the time being, I would plan on going into 2016 thinking: Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Kelly and Wright on the 25-man, Rodriguez, Owens competing for a spot, Johnson and Barnes proving additional depth. Buchholz because I think is better than free agent options at 26.5M for 2 years. Porcello and Miley probably can provide 3 starter level, Kelly is 4 with upside. Not that I think Wright is 5th best, but he is good enough and is out of options after 2015. If he does not win a SP spot, then perhaps long reliever, or DFA and hope we keep him in AAA. ERod and Owens could be starters next year, but both have options, and depth is really important, especially with Buchholz as one of the starters. I definitely do not want to do like the MFY in signing Sab to a long-term top $ contract, then compound the mistake when Sab opted out. If we can can a top pitcher (either under 30, or short contract to one over 30) then we have enough depth to trade a couple of SP, but I would wait until someone was desperate.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 27, 2015 15:40:42 GMT -5
I don't understand all this talk of "winning" a 5th rotation spot, anyway. I mean are people seriously proposing the use of spring training stats to decide these things or what?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2015 16:21:06 GMT -5
I don't understand all this talk of "winning" a 5th rotation spot, anyway. I mean are people seriously proposing the use of spring training stats to decide these things or what? No. You decide over the winter who should be the 5th starter, all things being equal, but then you see in ST, from a scouting perspective, how things have changed since last fall. The guy who had the edge may report a bit out of shape, the next guy on the depth chart may have developed a cutter in winter ball, etc.
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Post by arzjake on Aug 27, 2015 16:55:23 GMT -5
Schilling Pedro Lowe Wakefield Arroyo
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 27, 2015 17:37:44 GMT -5
I don't understand all this talk of "winning" a 5th rotation spot, anyway. I mean are people seriously proposing the use of spring training stats to decide these things or what? No. You decide over the winter who should be the 5th starter, all things being equal, but then you see in ST, from a scouting perspective, how things have changed since last fall. The guy who had the edge may report a bit out of shape, the next guy on the depth chart may have developed a cutter in winter ball, etc. I am skeptical of the ability to scout anything usefully in spring training, I mean we were all convinced Napoli was going to have a great year were we not? Getting in "better shape" sure didn't help Sabbathia, and none of these guys are going to play winter ball.
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Post by jmei on Aug 27, 2015 18:42:15 GMT -5
No. You decide over the winter who should be the 5th starter, all things being equal, but then you see in ST, from a scouting perspective, how things have changed since last fall. The guy who had the edge may report a bit out of shape, the next guy on the depth chart may have developed a cutter in winter ball, etc. I am skeptical of the ability to scout anything usefully in spring training, I mean we were all convinced Napoli was going to have a great year were we not? Getting in "better shape" sure didn't help Sabbathia, and none of these guys are going to play winter ball. You're conflating the truism that Spring Training stats don't matter with the idea that Spring Training scouting doesn't matter. The former seems generally true (although recent research suggests that ST gains in isolated power do somewhat predict improvements in in-season power). The latter might not be, especially for young pitchers who might show improved velocity or secondary stuff that comes with physical maturation or skill improvements. The two anecdotes you've provided don't seem dispositive to me.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 28, 2015 14:21:26 GMT -5
And keep in mind that "winning" a rotation spot in Spring Training is really just winning the first crack at a spot the first few times through the rotation. It's not like the team is locked into the decision for the entire year. This is why, say, a "competition" between a guy with options and a guy without them is nearly always won by the latter - the former needs to CLEARLY be better in order to justify jettisoning the vet.
As for me, I'd go into camp with Buchholz, Porcello, Acquisition, whichever of Rodriguez or Owens they didn't trade for that acquisition, Miley, and Kelly, and if everyone's still healthy near the end, move one.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 28, 2015 14:55:19 GMT -5
#1: Sign David Price (Scherzer-type money) #2: Trade for a number 2 (Use some combination of Buchholz, Miley, Margot, Johnson, Guerra, or anyone outside the top 20. If the return is strong enough then include Swihart.) #3: Porcello #4: Rodriguez #5: Owens, Wright, Kelly, Barnes (and Johnson if not traded) competition
Thoughts: - I am very high on Price. I think he is one of the truly elite players that it is worth overpaying for, even knowing the back end of the contract might get ugly. I would not sign Cueto.
- While Buchholz would in theory slot nicely into that #2 spot, I do not want to deal with him for another year. I'm just not sure the value projections accurately reflect the cost of him always getting hurt and not being available.
- I would think Owens wins the #5 job, but could see the team going with Wright to preserve depth - or potentially keeping Miley and going with him while leaving Johnson and Owens as AAA depth.
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Post by jdb on Aug 28, 2015 16:27:42 GMT -5
I'm really anxious to see how Kelly does the rest of the year. He's been pitching pretty well lately and if he keeps it up I think he sticks in the rotation. Porcello seems to be saying he is going back to his 2014 mix too.
I'm starting to think it goes something like 1 FA signing / Trade 2 Buch 3 Porcello 4 E Rod 5 Kelly
Dom keeps saying power arms so I think Miley and Owens could be on the block. Who knows maybe Buch could be traded as well.
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Aug 28, 2015 21:23:33 GMT -5
#1: Sign David Price (Scherzer-type money) #2: Trade for a number 2 (Use some combination of Buchholz, Miley, Margot, Johnson, Guerra, or anyone outside the top 20. If the return is strong enough then include Swihart.) #3: Porcello #4: Rodriguez #5: Owens, Wright, Kelly, Barnes (and Johnson if not traded) competition Thoughts: - I am very high on Price. I think he is one of the truly elite players that it is worth overpaying for, even knowing the back end of the contract might get ugly. I would not sign Cueto. - While Buchholz would in theory slot nicely into that #2 spot, I do not want to deal with him for another year. I'm just not sure the value projections accurately reflect the cost of him always getting hurt and not being available. - I would think Owens wins the #5 job, but could see the team going with Wright to preserve depth - or potentially keeping Miley and going with him while leaving Johnson and Owens as AAA depth. 100% with you on Price. He is the best available, they know what he's going to cost and can afford him, high success in the AL, and he now has a history with Dombroski (assuming that's a good thing). Dombroski has as much as said he's going after a top-of-the-rotation guy. Given this year's market, their budget, and their farm system, it's an easy choice to go that route. Whoever that ends up being, that provides all kinds of flexibility for what follows. Sounds like the consensus here is that there is another talent behind a frontline starter to compete. I agree with that, even if it means both Porcello and Miley are in the rotation. Personally, I'd like one gone, and I'd like that be Porcello, however unrealistic that may be.
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