SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 11, 2015 15:18:17 GMT -5
Their Jackie Bradley?
It's interesting, because Marrero, Bradley, and Ellsbury are the only reasonable comps under this regime, unless I'm missing someone (maybe you could say David Murphy). Bradley and Ellsbury did get there in two seasons. Marrero has had issues at the plate that pushed his arrival back a year. Murphy was a year off as well.
But yeah, taking a college hitter at number 7, a 2017 ETA isn't really even aggressive. Something will probably have to have gone wrong if he needs longer than that.
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 11, 2015 16:13:21 GMT -5
I think Moncada and Benintendi are our 2 best prospects.Their athleticism separates them from Devers IMO. They both split next year between Salem and Portland. Arrive in Fenway to stay around 4th of July 2017.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Aug 12, 2015 0:39:40 GMT -5
Now slugging .548 with a ridiculous .269 ISO, and still the BB:K of 1.57. That's a pretty good hitter, at least in the NYP league. Tonight's big game probably vaults him to second in the league in OPS. 11 XBH (with only one a double) in 104 AB. The IFFB rate is concerningly high, but he does seem to be adjusting well. If he finishes the year with a .300/.400/.550 line and 10-15 SB and his current XBH and BB:K rates, I've gotta think he's the draft's top first-round performer and a candidate for top-100s in the 70-90 range. With Devers, Margot, Guerra, Kopech, Espinoza, and maybe Johnson/Owens (depending on eligibility), that's a pretty good crop of high-upside guys, especially considering they graduated Betts, Rodriguez, Bogaerts, Swihart, Vazquez, and Bradley Jr recently. Speaking of which, JBJ with another nice game tonight, including a triple. Glimmer of hope?
I'll admit, I have hope Benintendi does the Salem-Portland 1-2 next year and a half-year of AAA in 2017 before the bigs, but even if it takes him 2 1/2 years, if he puts up numbers at all like this in the majors, that's a heckuva player.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,754
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Aug 12, 2015 6:58:52 GMT -5
I think Moncada and Benintendi are our 2 best prospects.Their athleticism separates them from Devers IMO. They both split next year between Salem and Portland. Arrive in Fenway to stay around 4th of July 2017. I disagree. I'm not putting too much stock in Benintendi's numbers in Lowell. He's 21 years old. How would Margot or Devers be doing in Lowell right now? Until he produces in Salem, I'm not going to be convinced he's higher than Guerra on our list.
|
|
|
Post by ctfisher on Aug 12, 2015 8:52:09 GMT -5
I think Moncada and Benintendi are our 2 best prospects.Their athleticism separates them from Devers IMO. They both split next year between Salem and Portland. Arrive in Fenway to stay around 4th of July 2017. I disagree. I'm not putting too much stock in Benintendi's numbers in Lowell. He's 21 years old. How would Margot or Devers be doing in Lowell right now? Until he produces in Salem, I'm not going to be convinced he's higher than Guerra on our list. I really think you have to factor pedigree into this, especially when it comes to Guerra. Yea he's having a great year, but if memory serves, the SAL tends to inflate power numbers, especially in Greenville, and the power Guerra has shown isn't at all in line with previous reports. I also think it's reasonable to ask what Benintendi would be doing in Greenville- I don't think it would be too much different now, given that he's had time to adjust to wood bats. I agree that Devers and Margot should definitely rank ahead of him, but I don't think it's as far apart as you're implying
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,754
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Aug 12, 2015 9:16:22 GMT -5
I disagree. I'm not putting too much stock in Benintendi's numbers in Lowell. He's 21 years old. How would Margot or Devers be doing in Lowell right now? Until he produces in Salem, I'm not going to be convinced he's higher than Guerra on our list. I really think you have to factor pedigree into this, especially when it comes to Guerra. Yea he's having a great year, but if memory serves, the SAL tends to inflate power numbers, especially in Greenville, and the power Guerra has shown isn't at all in line with previous reports. I also think it's reasonable to ask what Benintendi would be doing in Greenville- I don't think it would be too much different now, given that he's had time to adjust to wood bats. I agree that Devers and Margot should definitely rank ahead of him, but I don't think it's as far apart as you're implying I'm not trying to imply they're far apart, just that it's impossible to correctly rank or compare Benny yet.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 12, 2015 9:47:29 GMT -5
I saw Benintendi for the first time in Lowell on Saturday night. He can't be more than 5"9 and maybe 170 lbs, soaking wet. I have heard some people compare his swing to Mattingly and it does look similar. It is amazing how much power he generates from such a slight frame. Hitting for power has never been just being huge or powerful. Henry Aaron is a perfect example. So is Yaz, Jimmy Wynn, Joe Morgan, Johnny Callison, and even Willie Mays. Our "Benny" is not a big man, but he has some attributes that are difficult to copy. I would be shocked if he doesn't have, at least, a 5 year range of 20+ homers per year. His swing, bat speed, and finish are pretty darn good for hitting some balls a long way. The kid's batting eye seems to be special also! Man if being big was a must for hitting the long-ball, Frank Howard would have hit 800. Every time the whole "you don't have to be big to hit for power" thing comes up, the list of examples tends to lean really heavily on guys who are currently receiving social security checks or actually deceased. The game changes. I just sorted every batter who's had at least 1000 PAs in 2013/14/15 combined by isolated power. Of 34 players with an ISO of over .200 in that time, McCutchen is the ONLY ONE who's listed under 6'0". The list of elite power hitters in the game today is a parade of guys who are 6'3", 230 pounds. So yes, there absolutely is a physical profile for hitting for lots of power and Benintendi does not fit it. That's not to say he won't hit for any power, but realistically the best case scenario is slightly above average power. Which would be great for a plus-hit, plus-glove outfielder.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,754
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Aug 12, 2015 10:26:02 GMT -5
I know they're taller, but in terms of strength Granderson and Soriano can't be ahead of Benintendi by much or at all, and they both hit for big power. It's just a profile you see less often. So yes, chances are a smaller guy isn't going to hit for a lot of power, but I would think Benintedi could have a power ceiling much like those two I listed (not that anyone has a great chance of hitting their ceiling).
I would rather see a list of small guys who hit for a lot of power in the minors but didn't in the majors. That would be more telling IMO.
He's going to be a ton of fun to root for.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 12, 2015 10:57:14 GMT -5
Who has better raw power? Chavis or Benintendi?
|
|
|
Post by ctfisher on Aug 12, 2015 11:09:18 GMT -5
Who has better raw power? Chavis or Benintendi? Fangraphs has Chavis as a 60 and Benintendi as a 55 as of the draft
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 12, 2015 12:16:53 GMT -5
Hitting for power has never been just being huge or powerful. Henry Aaron is a perfect example. So is Yaz, Jimmy Wynn, Joe Morgan, Johnny Callison, and even Willie Mays. Our "Benny" is not a big man, but he has some attributes that are difficult to copy. I would be shocked if he doesn't have, at least, a 5 year range of 20+ homers per year. His swing, bat speed, and finish are pretty darn good for hitting some balls a long way. The kid's batting eye seems to be special also! Man if being big was a must for hitting the long-ball, Frank Howard would have hit 800. Every time the whole "you don't have to be big to hit for power" thing comes up, the list of examples tends to lean really heavily on guys who are currently receiving social security checks or actually deceased. The game changes. I just sorted every batter who's had at least 1000 PAs in 2013/14/15 combined by isolated power. Of 34 players with an ISO of over .200 in that time, McCutchen is the ONLY ONE who's listed under 6'0". The list of elite power hitters in the game today is a parade of guys who are 6'3", 230 pounds. So yes, there absolutely is a physical profile for hitting for lots of power and Benintendi does not fit it. That's not to say he won't hit for any power, but realistically the best case scenario is slightly above average power. Which would be great for a plus-hit, plus-glove outfielder. Would Dustin Pedroia 2011 be a good ceiling for Benintendi?
|
|
|
Post by ctfisher on Aug 12, 2015 12:41:51 GMT -5
Every time the whole "you don't have to be big to hit for power" thing comes up, the list of examples tends to lean really heavily on guys who are currently receiving social security checks or actually deceased. The game changes. I just sorted every batter who's had at least 1000 PAs in 2013/14/15 combined by isolated power. Of 34 players with an ISO of over .200 in that time, McCutchen is the ONLY ONE who's listed under 6'0". The list of elite power hitters in the game today is a parade of guys who are 6'3", 230 pounds. So yes, there absolutely is a physical profile for hitting for lots of power and Benintendi does not fit it. That's not to say he won't hit for any power, but realistically the best case scenario is slightly above average power. Which would be great for a plus-hit, plus-glove outfielder. Would Dustin Pedroia 2011 be a good ceiling for Benintendi? I would've thought that, given the power numbers form college and the fact that he's actually bigger than Pedroia, his ceiling is probably a little more power, maybe not quite the average, but I definitely wouldn't be complaining if that's where he ends up
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 12, 2015 12:47:39 GMT -5
I think Moncada and Benintendi are our 2 best prospects.Their athleticism separates them from Devers IMO. They both split next year between Salem and Portland. Arrive in Fenway to stay around 4th of July 2017. I disagree. I'm not putting too much stock in Benintendi's numbers in Lowell. He's 21 years old. How would Margot or Devers be doing in Lowell right now? Until he produces in Salem, I'm not going to be convinced he's higher than Guerra on our list. NCAA Player of Year is more impressive to me than an advanced hitter doing well in Sally League. See Jesus Montero and Gary Sanchez.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 12, 2015 14:43:52 GMT -5
From Badler's chat today:
Red Sox Fan (Gloucester, MA): Now that he's had a two-homer game in professional baseball, what is your feeling on how quickly Benintendi can move through the minors? The parent club could sure use the help.
Ben Badler: They could put him in High-A right now and I don't think he'd have any trouble handling that level. It's a sound swing, excellent plate discipline and pitch recognition to go with excellent power for someone who's not all that big. All the stuff I said about Michael Conforto having everything you look for in a hitter, you can apply it all to Benintendi. He could move just as quickly if the Red Sox want to push him.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Aug 12, 2015 15:17:51 GMT -5
A Conforto bat with a better glove? Yes please.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 13, 2015 11:59:42 GMT -5
It seems to me that the Sox have been less aggressive in their promotions this year than in the recent past. I wonder if this is in reaction to the struggles of JBJ and Bogaerts last year and a perception that their guys just weren't quite ready enough when they debuted in MLB.
|
|
|
Post by borisman on Aug 13, 2015 12:35:02 GMT -5
It's a shame JBJ hasn't hit MLB pitching. What a joy to watch in the OF.
And there's no reason why Beni couldn't play in A+ right now. He seems so advanced in his approach at the plate.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 13, 2015 13:38:20 GMT -5
It's a shame JBJ hasn't hit MLB pitching. What a joy to watch in the OF. And there's no reason why Beni couldn't play in A+ right now. He seems so advanced in his approach at the plate. With his BABIP returning to some level of normality (.286), he may be starting to do just that. His 3-slash for August is .241/.378/.483. Now that's an arbitrary starting point and a very small sample size, but it does show that he hasn't lost his patience at the plate. That OBP in and of itself makes him valuable, but there's a little power showing up over the last few games also. I hope they keep playing him every day without the silly get-a-hit-or-two and sit the next day. Given the way the team sent Devers to Greenville, pushed Margot up to Portland, and has so far promoted all three of the AAA guys for starts in the majors, I don't see the reluctance to move guys up.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 13, 2015 13:48:11 GMT -5
It seems to me that the Sox have been less aggressive in their promotions this year than in the recent past. I wonder if this is in reaction to the struggles of JBJ and Bogaerts last year and a perception that their guys just weren't quite ready enough when they debuted in MLB. You think? Not sure I agree. Espinoza and Raudes from the DSL, Williams Jerez from Greenville to Portland via Salem, Jonathan Aro to Pawtucket (and Boston) after he started last year in Greenville, Manuel Margot and Sam Travis to Portland, Dubon to Salem all strike me as on the aggressive side of the spectrum. They have certainly been conservative with Moncada and Benintendi, but I wouldn't say that the lack of a promotion for Devers or Guerra, for example, puts them on the conservative side of things, particularly given how young those guys are. Our old friend Alex Skillin had a piece on this over on BP Boston, but I disagreed with his premise. Like I said, I think they're being conservative with Moncada and Benintendi, but otherwise, they have tended to be aggressive, imo. Part of this is that many of their placements out of the box are pretty aggressive - think Devers, Guerra, and Chavis starting in Greenville, Rijo starting in Salem, and so forth.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 13, 2015 14:49:16 GMT -5
It seems to me that the Sox have been less aggressive in their promotions this year than in the recent past. I wonder if this is in reaction to the struggles of JBJ and Bogaerts last year and a perception that their guys just weren't quite ready enough when they debuted in MLB. You think? Not sure I agree. Espinoza and Raudes from the DSL, Williams Jerez from Greenville to Portland via Salem, Jonathan Aro to Pawtucket (and Boston) after he started last year in Greenville, Manuel Margot and Sam Travis to Portland, Dubon to Salem all strike me as on the aggressive side of the spectrum. They have certainly been conservative with Moncada and Benintendi, but I wouldn't say that the lack of a promotion for Devers or Guerra, for example, puts them on the conservative side of things, particularly given how young those guys are. Our old friend Alex Skillin had a piece on this over on BP Boston, but I disagreed with his premise. Like I said, I think they're being conservative with Moncada and Benintendi, but otherwise, they have tended to be aggressive, imo. Part of this is that many of their placements out of the box are pretty aggressive - think Devers, Guerra, and Chavis starting in Greenville, Rijo starting in Salem, and so forth. Hmmm, that's a pretty good point about the aggressive placements out of the box. I hadn't really considered that, but that does make a difference. I guess I was thinking of Moncada and Benintendi, added to the fact that there have been so few promotions of any kind outside of relief pitchers ... but starting from expectations March 15th to now, my original point probably doesn't hold much water.
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 13, 2015 15:12:54 GMT -5
You think? Not sure I agree. Espinoza and Raudes from the DSL, Williams Jerez from Greenville to Portland via Salem, Jonathan Aro to Pawtucket (and Boston) after he started last year in Greenville, Manuel Margot and Sam Travis to Portland, Dubon to Salem all strike me as on the aggressive side of the spectrum. They have certainly been conservative with Moncada and Benintendi, but I wouldn't say that the lack of a promotion for Devers or Guerra, for example, puts them on the conservative side of things, particularly given how young those guys are. Our old friend Alex Skillin had a piece on this over on BP Boston, but I disagreed with his premise. Like I said, I think they're being conservative with Moncada and Benintendi, but otherwise, they have tended to be aggressive, imo. Part of this is that many of their placements out of the box are pretty aggressive - think Devers, Guerra, and Chavis starting in Greenville, Rijo starting in Salem, and so forth. Hmmm, that's a pretty good point about the aggressive placements out of the box. I hadn't really considered that, but that does make a difference. I guess I was thinking of Moncada and Benintendi, added to the fact that there have been so few promotions of any kind outside of relief pitchers ... but starting from expectations March 15th to now, my original point probably doesn't hold much water. And further, I don't think there is much we can take from how the team is handling Benintendi and Moncada this year. Benintendi is coming off a long college season and is just getting acclimated to professionally ball. I really don't put much stock in him staying in Lowell this year. I think it doesn't make any difference in where he starts next year. And Moncada is just such a unique case. He had a long layoff from baseball and started in extended. He's just such a unique case that I don't think we can use him to draw any conclusions about organizational philosophy.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 13, 2015 15:44:54 GMT -5
It seems to me that the Sox have been less aggressive in their promotions this year than in the recent past. I wonder if this is in reaction to the struggles of JBJ and Bogaerts last year and a perception that their guys just weren't quite ready enough when they debuted in MLB. JBJ IMHO was rushed way to soon based on a great ST i 2013 which I thought any professional org. was aware of but the Sox got caught up in the hype. I think it set him back at least a year. He should have spent that season in AA for at least a few months with an ETA in Boston in 2014 likely mid season. Bogaerts did what 99% of rookies do their first year, struggle however he had 3 really good months to which showed that he was capable. He was still hitting .300 at the end of last May if I'm not mistaken and his Sept. was above .300 too. Ted Williams once said do not judge any young hitter until he has had 1,000 at bats in the majors that's about 2 seasons and it still appears to be right even in todays game.
|
|
|
Post by beantown on Aug 13, 2015 15:45:41 GMT -5
I'll be in Batavia catching the spinners game tonight, and hopefully I can get some video. Fingers crossed for a Benny bomb..
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Aug 13, 2015 22:58:53 GMT -5
I'll be in Batavia catching the spinners game tonight, and hopefully I can get some video. Fingers crossed for a Benny bomb.. Close but no cigar. Eh, a triple is a lot more exciting to see anyway. 12 XBH and only one double. If he's not tops in OPS in the NYPL now, it's gotta be awful close. He's closing in on 1.000 pretty quickly.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Aug 13, 2015 23:08:16 GMT -5
Ted Williams once said do not judge any young hitter until he has had 1,000 at bats in the majors that's about 2 seasons and it still appears to be right even in todays game. After Ted Williams had about 1,000 ABs in the majors, he hit .406.
|
|
|