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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 23, 2015 16:54:58 GMT -5
It's pretty naive to think that the best college bat is equal every year. I don't even see the point in comparing them. The point is that when Vitek and Brentz were drafted they both were giving the "best college bat" in the draft labels by people like Keith Law and look where they quickly ended up right from the get go in Lowell. Both quickly imploded even in low A ball. It wasn't even comparable at all. And the scale of incomparability was so extreme it wasn't a discussion of the "real best college bats" in each draft because Brentz and Vitek clearly were not the best in hindsight. Beni may well be the best college bat in the 2015 draft. We finally may have really obtained a premium middle of the order, power hitting stud.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2015 17:02:57 GMT -5
No doubt the sample size is small and we have other great prospects but to me Beni is the first major power hitting prospect we have had for a long time. A legitimate 30-35 HR bat potentially. If he makes the majors he will get pitched to differently of course and who knows how he ends up, and I'm sure many here will say Bogaerts was comparable as a middle of the order power bat, but Beni had a terrific power year in college last year plus great pop in the low minors already and he has shown superb pitch selection and an obvious upward swing trajectory. This kid is consciously trying to hit HR and he's pulling it off so far plus just being a productive hitter overall in terms of getting on base. Bogaerts never put up K/walk ratios like these. Beni's K/walk ratio is even better than Bett's was in the low minors, albeit at a higher age but outstanding nonetheless. The Yankees would kill for this guy right now and trade any prospect they have to get him. Left handed power hitter with 30-35 HR potential who gets on base extremely well and plays above average defense. I know most scouts and analysts would say don't scout the box score, especially in the low minors and with age appropriate players, but this kid has put up legitimate top prospect numbers for the entire past year ( in college and the minors ), on top of a terrific high school career. He doesn't appear to be phased by the pressure of being "the guy" in the lineup. He is consistently hitting for power even in the low minors and we haven't had that in our system nearly enough. Developing real power bats who are not Middlebrooks type low OBP guys has been a problem. And we aren't sacrificing defense to get it with Benintendi. We don't usually get the chance to land players like Benintendi and Moncada. We have to luck out ( kind of ) and draft guys like Betts who get overlooked elsewhere and roll the dice. Beni is a blue chip, bonifide slab of premium prospect granite, quickly being carved into a baseball "David". There is a chance he is a real difference maker. I know it's way early to get too excited but it's just great to see that there is a chance we have acquired that sort of player in Beni. At least since Devers, way back when.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2015 17:05:26 GMT -5
It's pretty naive to think that the best college bat is equal every year. I don't even see the point in comparing them. The point is that when Vitek and Brentz were drafted they both were giving the "best college bat" in the draft labels by people like Keith Law and look where they quickly ended up right from the get go in Lowell. Both quickly imploded even in low A ball. It wasn't even comparable at all. And the scale of incomparability was so extreme it wasn't a discussion of the "real best college bats" in each draft because Brentz and Vitek clearly were not the best in hindsight. Beni may well be the best college bat in the 2015 draft. We finally may have really obtained a premium middle of the order, power hitting stud. If the best college bat one year is Vitek and the next year the best college bat is Babe Ruth and the second best college bat is Ted Williams, what is the point in comparing the two draft years? The distinction of "best college bat" means absolutely nothing. Some years there are better players available.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 23, 2015 17:05:52 GMT -5
In reference to thelavarnwayguy, that's not exactly true about Brentz. He hit 30 HRs between two levels in 2011 with a very high OPS. He had a very good season in Portland in 2012. Then he shot himself in the spring of 2013, suffered a serious hamstring injury in 2014 and had surgery this year. His career pretty much careened into the garbage bin with that bullet in his leg. However, to support your point, his collegiate hitting, if anything, was better than Benintendi's.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 23, 2015 17:25:11 GMT -5
I respect that Brentz had a good year in 2011 in the minors, and to a lesser degree 2012, but look how he started out in Lowell at the same age as Beni:
262 AB, 5 HR, .198 BA
Brentz has always struck out a lot without drawing a lot of walks. He was never the prospect Beni is now in my opinion. He is a project we rolled the dice on. Beni is a refined slab of premium prospect marble already. Beni has a realistic chance of being a major stud.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 23, 2015 17:31:09 GMT -5
There are a lot of reasons to be really excited about Benintendi. The biggest question mark he had was his ability to adjust to wood bats and he answered that emphatically. I see no issue with being extremely excited about him. He is the kind of well rounded prospect that you don't see very often. I don't think his power tool is as epic as you are representing, but in conjunction with his defense, speed, hit tool, and approach - the full package is worth getting excited over.
With that said, there is no reason to bring Vitek or Brentz into this. It hurts the point you are making. Neither was close to the prospect Benintendi is. Brentz wasn't even taken in the first round; Vitek outside the top 20.
I also would take both Moncada and Devers power tool over Benintendi. I see the argument for Benintendi as the better overall prospect (than Devers anyways), but in terms of just projected power I'd prefer the bigger guys.
But the fact that Benintendi is making such a strong case to join those two as top 25ish prospects is truly exciting.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 23, 2015 17:37:06 GMT -5
The point is that when Vitek and Brentz were drafted they both were giving the "best college bat" in the draft labels by people like Keith Law and look where they quickly ended up right from the get go in Lowell. Both quickly imploded even in low A ball. It wasn't even comparable at all. And the scale of incomparability was so extreme it wasn't a discussion of the "real best college bats" in each draft because Brentz and Vitek clearly were not the best in hindsight. Beni may well be the best college bat in the 2015 draft. We finally may have really obtained a premium middle of the order, power hitting stud. If the best college bat one year is Vitek and the next year the best college bat is Babe Ruth and the second best college bat is Ted Williams, what is the point in comparing the two draft years? The distinction of "best college bat" means absolutely nothing. Some years there are better players available. At what point did I ever say the best college bat each year is equal? Of course it isn't but the sample size of thousands of players each year should have some significance wouldn't it? At least some basis for comparison. We obviously didn't get the best college bat in either Brentz or Vitek. I don't know who the best one was that year but we obviously could have picked better. My point was this year we seem to have picked one of the best really. I've been on record from before day one that picking Ball at #7 was crazy but I've also been on record before day one that Beni would be a great pick. When you pick that high it is important not to blow it. Not to roll the dice so much. Beni was an extremely safe, high upside pick. A real chance at a middle of the order power bat who also can get on base. Solid in every way with a proven track record from a major college. A very secure and high upside #7 pick. Ball was a very insecure high upside pick. With the #7 slot we should have done better in 2014. I have been a fan of Cherington but we have seen a lot of bone headed decisions overall and now he has paid the price for it. I'm just glad he didn't blow this pick. It was so obvious I don't know how he could have but he has done it before.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 23, 2015 17:41:18 GMT -5
If the best college bat one year is Vitek and the next year the best college bat is Babe Ruth and the second best college bat is Ted Williams, what is the point in comparing the two draft years? The distinction of "best college bat" means absolutely nothing. Some years there are better players available. At what point did I ever say the best college bat each year is equal? Of course it isn't but the sample size of thousands of players each year should have some significance wouldn't it? At least some basis for comparison. We obviously didn't get the best college bat in either Brentz or Vitek. I don't know who the best one was that year but we obviously could have picked better. My point was this year we seem to have picked one of the best really. I've been on record from before day one that picking Ball at #7 was crazy but I've also been on record before day one that Beni would be a great pick. When you pick that high it is important not to blow it. Not to roll the dice so much. Beni was an extremely safe, high upside pick. A real chance at a middle of the order power bat who also can get on base. Solid in every way with a proven track record from a major college. A very secure and high upside #7 pick. Ball was a very insecure high upside pick. With the #7 slot we should have done better in 2014. I have been a fan of Cherington but we have seen a lot of bone headed decisions overall and now he has paid the price for it. I'm just glad he didn't blow this pick. It was so obvious I don't know how he could have but he has done it before. Preemptively, let's not make this a conversation about the 2013 draft, trey ball, or the fact that there were so few decent options available in that draft and certainly no one of Benintendi's caliber.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,438
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Post by nomar on Aug 23, 2015 17:47:30 GMT -5
Crazy how irrelevant half of the conversation is right now, but I'll second what chavo said about Benintendi's power. I don't think that's what you should be focusing on, and I think Devers and Moncada will have more in game power when all is said and done. But what can potentially set Benintendi apart his his discipline and contact ability, which neither of the fore mentioned two can boast both of.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 23, 2015 17:51:22 GMT -5
I'll say what I thought on draft day, and have had no reason to change my mind: Benintendi was underrated by scouts because he didn't play in the Cape (overrated) and they didn't know he was draft eligible (not his fault). Putting up those kind of numbers in college isn't everything, but it's not nothing either. I'm not surprised that his performance is carrying over and I think by the time prospect lists come out a year and change from now, Benintendi will look like the steal of the top half of the first round.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2015 17:55:29 GMT -5
If the best college bat one year is Vitek and the next year the best college bat is Babe Ruth and the second best college bat is Ted Williams, what is the point in comparing the two draft years? The distinction of "best college bat" means absolutely nothing. Some years there are better players available. At what point did I ever say the best college bat each year is equal? Of course it isn't but the sample size of thousands of players each year should have some significance wouldn't it? At least some basis for comparison. We obviously didn't get the best college bat in either Brentz or Vitek. I don't know who the best one was that year but we obviously could have picked better. My point was this year we seem to have picked one of the best really. I've been on record from before day one that picking Ball at #7 was crazy but I've also been on record before day one that Beni would be a great pick. When you pick that high it is important not to blow it. Not to roll the dice so much. Beni was an extremely safe, high upside pick. A real chance at a middle of the order power bat who also can get on base. Solid in every way with a proven track record from a major college. A very secure and high upside #7 pick. Ball was a very insecure high upside pick. With the #7 slot we should have done better in 2014. I have been a fan of Cherington but we have seen a lot of bone headed decisions overall and now he has paid the price for it. I'm just glad he didn't blow this pick. It was so obvious I don't know how he could have but he has done it before. When you started comparing them. There is no reason at all to bring up Vitek or Brentz when discussing Benintendi. Maybe they share the trait of being human, but that's it.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 23, 2015 18:09:20 GMT -5
I see him as more of a 20-25 HR guy myself, but he's been phenomenal so far. Nobody can really argue otherwise. Love that he adjusted to the wood so quickly after not playing on the Cape the prior summer, he's certainly a guy to be excited about.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 23, 2015 21:18:48 GMT -5
No doubt the sample size is small and we have other great prospects but to me Beni is the first major power hitting prospect we have had for a long time. .... This is ridiculous. When Xander was at the level that Beni is now, he was 18 and hit 16 hrs in half a season. He hit 20 at two higher levels the next year at 19, then 16 at two higher levels plus mlb at 20, then 12 in mlb at age 21. Wake me up when Benintendi does anything as impressive as that, or when he bats in a game where they have a scouting report on how to pitch to him, and pitchers who can implement that plan.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 23, 2015 22:37:49 GMT -5
No doubt the sample size is small and we have other great prospects but to me Beni is the first major power hitting prospect we have had for a long time. .... This is ridiculous. When Xander was at the level that Beni is now, he was 18 and hit 16 hrs in half a season. He hit 20 at two higher levels the next year at 19, then 16 at two higher levels plus mlb at 20, then 12 in mlb at age 21. Wake me up when Benintendi does anything as impressive as that, or when he bats in a game where they have a scouting report on how to pitch to him, and pitchers who can implement that plan. Amen brother! This is why bogaerts will remain on my untouchable list. I think bogaerts made an incredible year two leap this year. The average is over .310 and the risp is way above average, not to mention the impressive defensive improvement to boot. Another impressive thing is bogaerts started the year hitting 7th or 8th I think and is now a fixture hitting 3rd. Not taking anything away from Benny, he could be really, really special in a very short amount of time, but right now it's still low a ball when most of the best low a pitchers were promoted already.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 23, 2015 22:56:34 GMT -5
I noted Bogaerts in the power conversation and also noted that maybe Beni would be better off flattening out his swing long term. For him to be more of a high obp, 20 HR guy and even be potentially be better suited as a leadoff or #2 batter so I actually see those points but I think Beni is a better power hitting prospect than Devers or Bogaerts if he wants to be. Woudn't we love to see Bogaerts be even a 20 HR guy going forward? He's hit 4 so far this year. If you add Beni's 2015 college HR numbers to his minor league HR numbers you are looking at 29 HR in about 370 AB this year ( rough estimates of 1 per every 13 AB). At 21 years old he appears to know how to hit HR already plus his K/walk performance is way better than the other players mentioned. To me, what he has done is just as impressive as what Xander did in the low minors and Xander was a top 5 prospect eventually. I think Betts probably hits more HR going forward than Xander and Benintendi looks to me to be a legit power hitting middle of the order bat someday,
Will he probably be a consistent 30-35 HR guy? Probably no, but we haven't developed one of those guys for a very long time. Who knows what will happen but Beni's numbers have been outstanding.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2015 22:59:09 GMT -5
It's pretty naive to think that the best college bat is equal every year. I don't even see the point in comparing them. The point is that when Vitek and Brentz were drafted they both were giving the "best college bat" in the draft labels by people like Keith Law and look where they quickly ended up right from the get go in Lowell. Both quickly imploded even in low A ball. It wasn't even comparable at all. And the scale of incomparability was so extreme it wasn't a discussion of the "real best college bats" in each draft because Brentz and Vitek clearly were not the best in hindsight. Beni may well be the best college bat in the 2015 draft. We finally may have really obtained a premium middle of the order, power hitting stud. So, just FYI, Brentz and Vitek were the same draft, 2010. So based on that alone, we're expanding "best college bat" to mean "among the best college bats" which starts to get kind of meaningless. 2010, BA: www.baseballamerica.com/draft/best-tools-2010-draft-9974/Best Pure Hitter College 1. Zack Cox, 3b, Arkansas 2. Christian Colon, ss, Cal State Fullerton 3. Kolbrin Vitek, 2b, Ball State Best Power Hitter College 1. Bryce Harper, c/of, JC of Southern Nevada 2. Michael Choice, of, Texas-Arlington 3. Bryce Brentz, of, Middle Tennessee State 2015, BA: www.baseballamerica.com/draft/flow-god-rodgers-remains-focused-amid-draft-hoopla/BEST PURE HITTER COLLEGE: Andrew Benintendi, Ian Happ, Kevin Newman BEST POWER HITTER COLLEGE: Chris Shaw, David Thompson, Christin Stewart So yeah, a lot of the stuff I'd say has already been said, but wanted to post this for reference.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2015 23:02:59 GMT -5
Will he probably be a consistent 30-35 HR guy? Probably no, but we haven't developed one of those guys for a very long time. Who knows what will happen but Beni's numbers have been outstanding. FWIW, there were 11 30 HR hitters last year and 14 the year before, so a lot of teams haven't developed one of those guys in a long time. (And BTW, one last year was Rizzo and the year before one was Moss, so my guess is there are teams who have gone longer...)
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 23, 2015 23:04:10 GMT -5
Jimed14, both Vitek and Brentz were described by some scouts as the best college bats available in that draft. I never said they were equal to Beni but the point was that maybe we didn't blow it with Beni, while we probably don't end up with much from Brentz and Vitek. I'm glad we got a stud this time.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Aug 30, 2015 3:31:03 GMT -5
One thing that can't be denied is the swing of Benintendi. He has by far the prettiest swing in the system.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Aug 30, 2015 6:50:46 GMT -5
This kid is too advanced to stay long in A ball. Hope him to participate in Arizona Fall League then start next year with Portland.
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Post by jmei on Aug 30, 2015 8:35:01 GMT -5
One thing that can't be denied is the swing of Benintendi. He has by far the prettiest swing in the system. Counterpoint: Devers.
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Post by bigpupp on Aug 30, 2015 8:35:34 GMT -5
Jimed14, both Vitek and Brentz were described by some scouts as the best college bats available in that draft. I never said they were equal to Beni but the point was that maybe we didn't blow it with Beni, while we probably don't end up with much from Brentz and Vitek. I'm glad we got a stud this time. Can you provide a link for that? I don't remember ever seeing that said but obviously didn't read what every scout said that draft year.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Aug 30, 2015 11:06:47 GMT -5
Jimed14, both Vitek and Brentz were described by some scouts as the best college bats available in that draft. I never said they were equal to Beni but the point was that maybe we didn't blow it with Beni, while we probably don't end up with much from Brentz and Vitek. I'm glad we got a stud this time. Can you provide a link for that? I don't remember ever seeing that said but obviously didn't read what every scout said that draft year. Here's 1 from before the draft that actually touches on both baseballdraftreport.com/tag/kobrin-vitek/Both were very highly regarded college bats. Vitek especially was seen as a guy with a huge hit tool that would carry him far, even though it was unclear if he had a defensive position. His complete failure to ever hit any level is one of the more perplexing whiffs I've seen since starting to follow the draft. There were concerns by some that the profile would never hit for much power, but basically everyone believed he could hit. The big question was whether or not he could stick at 3B. The fear being that in the OF, he was more of an average regular with the offensive profile. Funny how wrong that was and how many people were. Brentz put up excellent power numbers in college. There were some concerns about his approach (Which turned out to be well founded) but he had a ton of power in college (and still does). He also was seen as potentially a good fielder due to the fact that he had an excellent arm, being a former pitcher. I remember in a podcast about a year back that the arm has taken a step back, which is disappointing. If Brentz' athleticism had translated to good fielding, he'd actually be a really interesting bench guy, already. However as is, he's not.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 30, 2015 11:12:06 GMT -5
Can you provide a link for that? I don't remember ever seeing that said but obviously didn't read what every scout said that draft year. Here's 1 from before the draft that actually touches on both baseballdraftreport.com/tag/kobrin-vitek/Both were very highly regarded college bats. Vitek especially was seen as a guy with a huge hit tool that would carry him far, even though it was unclear if he had a defensive position. His complete failure to ever hit any level is one of the more perplexing whiffs I've seen since starting to follow the draft. There were concerns by some that the profile would never hit for much power, but basically everyone believed he could hit. The big question was whether or not he could stick at 3B. The fear being that in the OF, he was more of an average regular with the offensive profile. Funny how wrong that was and how many people were. Brentz put up excellent power numbers in college. There were some concerns about his approach (Which turned out to be well founded) but he had a ton of power in college (and still does). He also was seen as potentially a good fielder due to the fact that he had an excellent arm, being a former pitcher. I remember in a podcast about a year back that the arm has taken a step back, which is disappointing. If Brentz' athleticism had translated to good fielding, he'd actually be a really interesting bench guy, already. However as is, he's not. This still provides absolutely no reason why two different players should be compared to each other simply because they have the possible label of 'best college bat". If Mike Trout went to college, he would have been the best college bat when he was drafted too. That doesn't mean there is any comparison between him and Vitek.
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Post by bigpupp on Aug 30, 2015 11:38:57 GMT -5
Can you provide a link for that? I don't remember ever seeing that said but obviously didn't read what every scout said that draft year. Here's 1 from before the draft that actually touches on both baseballdraftreport.com/tag/kobrin-vitek/Both were very highly regarded college bats. Vitek especially was seen as a guy with a huge hit tool that would carry him far, even though it was unclear if he had a defensive position. His complete failure to ever hit any level is one of the more perplexing whiffs I've seen since starting to follow the draft. There were concerns by some that the profile would never hit for much power, but basically everyone believed he could hit. The big question was whether or not he could stick at 3B. The fear being that in the OF, he was more of an average regular with the offensive profile. Funny how wrong that was and how many people were. Brentz put up excellent power numbers in college. There were some concerns about his approach (Which turned out to be well founded) but he had a ton of power in college (and still does). He also was seen as potentially a good fielder due to the fact that he had an excellent arm, being a former pitcher. I remember in a podcast about a year back that the arm has taken a step back, which is disappointing. If Brentz' athleticism had translated to good fielding, he'd actually be a really interesting bench guy, already. However as is, he's not. Thanks for the link, but that article only called Vitek the best second base prospect. I think the general point (Vitek and Brent were well regarded) is much different than the specific point (Vitek and Brentz were the best college hitter of their draft). One might be true while the other isn't really true at all.
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