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Post by soxfan1615 on Aug 22, 2015 13:23:00 GMT -5
You expect Swihart to maintain a .367 BABIP? LD% at the major league level is very unreliable because the scorers are really bad. It has a lower year to year correlation than BABIP Someday, we'll have the Statcast data and there will be no more guessing. And can finally have a real xBABIP stat based on hardness of contact and difficulty of pitcher. And then maybe from that, a SIERA type stat for batters. He does have a .333 BABIP in his minor league career so it might just be a little high and not absurdly high. ZiPS has his projection at .311 for BABIP which is above average. I think that's about fair. The worry is that, if he regresses to that, his wRC+ will come crashing down since he doesn't walk much, he K's a decent amount, and he hasn't hit for a lot of power
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Post by beantown on Aug 22, 2015 13:36:33 GMT -5
Someday, we'll have the Statcast data and there will be no more guessing. And can finally have a real xBABIP stat based on hardness of contact and difficulty of pitcher. And then maybe from that, a SIERA type stat for batters. He does have a .333 BABIP in his minor league career so it might just be a little high and not absurdly high. ZiPS has his projection at .311 for BABIP which is above average. I think that's about fair. The worry is that, if he regresses to that, his wRC+ will come crashing down since he doesn't walk much, he K's a decent amount, and he hasn't hit for a lot of power Yep. In a perfect world, power numbers and walk rate are two things that can improve with growing discipline and comfort around the plate. We got a taste of the raw power in that first big league homer.. an absolute BOMB. The kid can swing a big bat when he wants to, just like Xander.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 22, 2015 13:38:15 GMT -5
Guys I would make shop / make available (also to varying degrees of return) are as follows: Rick Porcello, Brock Holt, Manny Margot, Javier Guerra, Michael Kopech, Sam Travis, and the rest of our prospects / major league talent. Our team right now is in a very similar position to where the Cubbies were last year at this time (which is why I think making a decision that allowed Ben Cherington to leave was a HUGE mistake). There is a ton of young talent, a lot of which is showing it belongs at the major league level in some capacity. This is the off-season (in my opinion) to spend money (not players) on an Ace, and that ace to me is David Price. Then, as mentioned above, with the $10m savings from Sandoval, $13m from Buchholz and $4m coming off the books from Gonzalez, you're at what Price would likely cost per season. From most estimates, that still leaves us around $25m in cap space. I'd use the players mentioned above to trade for a good #2 pitcher with reasonable cost (Jose Quintana, Tyson Ross type of player). You go into next season with something like this: c - Swihart; 1b - Shaw; 2b - Pedroia; 3b - Ramirez; ss - Bogaerts; lf - Betts; cf - Bradley Jr; rf - Castillo; dh - Ortiz. bench - Hanigan, Holt, Rutledge, OF. sp - Price, "Quintana", Rodriguez, Owens and whichever of Miley / Porcello isn't moved. Depth in Pawtucket includes something like Wright, Escobar, Couch and Barnes. bp - Uehara, Tazawa, and spend some of the remaining money to build up the back end here. Well, there you have it. Sorry for the long post, but it's going to be a complicated off-season. I think the moves above set up a team that will contend in the short term and not sacrifice the long term dynasty we're looking to build. Have at it. I just don't see Ross or Quintana as #2 type pitchers. Ross has a WHIP of 1.38 and Quintana is 1.30. I mean Quintana is close, but Ross looks like a 3/4 closer to 4 in the AL There ERA's seem to be more a product of luck, more so with Ross. You have to be very lucky to have a 1.38 WHIP net you an era of 3.32. I don't think getting rid of Buchholz makes much sense. You can't count on him, but as he showed this year when healthy he could be that #2 that we need to go along with an ace.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox go on a spending spree this offseason and get our payroll to levels never before seen. This years free agent class of pitchers looks to be very good with a number of aces and numbers 2 and 3 type pitchers. Some like Samardzija would be a better choice as a #2 in my book. He has a 1.25 WHIP but a 4.64 ERA, which screams fluke, that's a lot of bad luck. My only worry is that his strikeout rate has really fallen off, not sure why. Maybe a lingering injury?
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Post by timnaehring on Aug 22, 2015 13:44:23 GMT -5
I'm not sure why Swihart is getting knocked for his hitting but Bogaerts is universally loved when he has has a horrible Secondary Average meaning that he adds nothing offensively besides weak contact singles to right field. www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-advanced-batting.shtml#players_advanced_batting::23People love to knock Jose Iglesias, Adeiny Hechavarria, Didi Gregorius for the same thing but Bogaerts is right there with them with an empty batting average, weak contract and a BABIP that is .365.
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Post by feez732 on Aug 22, 2015 14:16:11 GMT -5
I'm not sure why Swihart is getting knocked for his hitting but Bogaerts is universally loved when he has has a horrible Secondary Average meaning that he adds nothing offensively besides weak contact singles to right field. www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-advanced-batting.shtml#players_advanced_batting::23People love to knock Jose Iglesias, Adeiny Hechavarria, Didi Gregorius for the same thing but Bogaerts is right there with them with an empty batting average, weak contract and a BABIP that is .365. You're right, the underlying numbers for both Swihart and Bogaerts are probably closer than most realize. If I had to guess, Bogaerts is probably getting away with it more, because: - this is still a dramatic improvement for him relative to last year
- his K rate is a full 10 points lower than Swihart
- he isn't competing with Christian Vazquez for a starting job next year
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Post by thursty on Aug 22, 2015 14:53:25 GMT -5
I'm not sure why Swihart is getting knocked for his hitting but Bogaerts is universally loved when he has has a horrible Secondary Average meaning that he adds nothing offensively besides weak contact singles to right field. www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-advanced-batting.shtml#players_advanced_batting::23People love to knock Jose Iglesias, Adeiny Hechavarria, Didi Gregorius for the same thing but Bogaerts is right there with them with an empty batting average, weak contract and a BABIP that is .365. So, a lot of this is true (and has been pointed out by others before), but there is such a thing as trajectory. Xander was so bad last year (and no he didn't "struggle", he was awful) a 0.4 fWAR - that's a minor leaguer. Teams shifted against him 2nd half of last year - a RHH rookie, probably unprecedented. And he obviously decided that he would never let that happen again; and he made it happen - to wit, 47% -> 32% pull rate, 19% -> 33% opposite field rate - that's not random. Remember all those stories about Moustakas finally figuring it out and going to the opposite field earlier in this year?, well he's 26 and in his 5th season. David Ortiz has never been able or willing to make that kind of transformation That's just impressive - you're right he is not an elite hitter now, and probably never will be. Maybe he just stays dumping bloopers into RF with the occasional HR - well, that pretty much describes a certain number-sake who by consensus is a first ballot HOF; it's still a very valuable player
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Post by humanbeingbean on Aug 22, 2015 14:56:24 GMT -5
I'm not sure why Swihart is getting knocked for his hitting but Bogaerts is universally loved when he has has a horrible Secondary Average meaning that he adds nothing offensively besides weak contact singles to right field. www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-advanced-batting.shtml#players_advanced_batting::23People love to knock Jose Iglesias, Adeiny Hechavarria, Didi Gregorius for the same thing but Bogaerts is right there with them with an empty batting average, weak contract and a BABIP that is .365. You're right, the underlying numbers for both Swihart and Bogaerts are probably closer than most realize. If I had to guess, Bogaerts is probably getting away with it more, because: - this is still a dramatic improvement for him relative to last year
- his K rate is a full 10 points lower than Swihart
- he isn't competing with Christian Vazquez for a starting job next year
Would you take this Xander, though, or last season's? Let's hope that next season he maintains the average, and adds more homers and walks. .300/.350/15-20 homers, anyone?
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 22, 2015 16:07:59 GMT -5
Bogaerts has one of the highest BAs with runners in scoring position, and that has boosted his stock.
There has been a lot of discussion on the radio about his hitting. What he is doing is entirely intentional, his way of learning how to hit better. He is trying to gain control of the plate and hit balls where they are pitched. Last year he tried to pull too much. He has purposely avoided that this year, but he almost certainly will try to improve his power numbers in the future.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 22, 2015 16:11:57 GMT -5
2014: He couldn't hit outside pitches the other way, got killed low and away
2015: Learned how to go with the pitch to opposite field, but has to actively try to do so each at bat
2016: Hopefully learning to recognize when he should be looking to pull the ball and when it's better to just go with the pitch
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 22, 2015 16:30:22 GMT -5
Trade fever is reaching fever pitch. The rest of Theo's comments about the dangers of trying to develop an "uberteam" state that a winning team needs to put average to above average players at every position.
Looking around the diamond, setting Panda and Hanley to the side for this exercise, and considering the entire package of offense, defense, speed, instincts, character, potential and attitude, the Sox have exactly that: Swihart/Vasquez/Hanigan, Shaw, Pedey, XB, Betts, JBJ, Castillo, Papi, Holt, deAza, This is clearly demonstrated by the SSS surge of the past few weeks. IMO it is both difficult and foolish to pay a great price to improve that.
Even pitching looks better recently, but pitching is still the problem, and this can be resolved without trading any of the above, so I would trade none of them for any reason. There are plenty of prospects for that, and all but a few are tradeable for pitching.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 22, 2015 16:37:38 GMT -5
People, Xander Bogaerts is only 22 (and has already helped us win a World Series). I have no doubt he will continue to improve and work on his approach. Not to mention the insane step up in his defense this season, which more than makes up for his lack of power.
The only way I move him is for an equally cost controlled, extremely valuable SP.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 22, 2015 17:56:29 GMT -5
2014: He couldn't hit outside pitches the other way, got killed low and away 2015: Learned how to go with the pitch to opposite field, but has to actively try to do so each at bat 2016: Hopefully learning to recognize when he should be looking to pull the ball and when it's better to just go with the pitch Last year he could not spot a slider if it had a neon sign attached to it. This year, he still can not spot a slider, but he knows if a pitch is away, how to poke it to right field. As long as they keep throwing him sliders away, he will take the base hits and say thank you every time.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 22, 2015 18:13:39 GMT -5
HOW...............HOW.........can anyone get down on the improvement of Xander after what happened last season. He is 22 and has learned, already, how to adjust to pitches on the outside third of the plate. He has made HUGE steps defensively over the shortstop we saw last year. Yes he has things to learn and improve on. Yes I'd agree some of his hits have been weak contact. BUT how can we be ripping him for HOW far he has come in 12 months? I would bet the ranch, from the baseball intelligence he has shown, he will make further adjustments and become a truly outstanding player for us. Most players who don't succeed can't pin point their weaknesses and then make the changes necessary. Being able to do this is extraordinary. Few do it and therefore few become exceptional. With all of the weaknesses we have, to pick on him is ridiculous! A few years ago we said we would love to have 8 Pedroia's and we would compete with anyone......and I would love now to have 8 22-year old Xander's right now.....and we'd kick some you know what.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 22, 2015 18:35:51 GMT -5
Good list. I think there's an elephant in the room who should be added. Mookie Betts IF Jackie Bradley Jr's recent surge is a turning point in his development, and I think this is highly likely, it is logical to put Mookie on the table. Betts' accomplishments to date, his untapped potential, his young age, and his low cost make him one of the most valuable trade chips in the league. If the Red Sox are to land a young ace in the Sale/Archer/Gray category, Mookie gets that deal done. As good as Mookie has been defensively in CF, he is out of position there. And he will never approach the generational prowess of JBJ. I know many covet an outfield of both Betts and JBJ, but it's not a good fit. JBJ's bat does not play in RF, and Betts' doesn't work in LF. Betts' arm can't handle RF. Betts is one of those unique players who actually has more value on an opposing team than he does on his present team. He is THE sell high candidate in the league today. Of course this argument collapses in JBJ reverts to the hitter we've seen over the last three years. But he's made steady progress through the minors and odds are he's finally figured it out. Regardless, the one place the Red Sox have legitimate "deep depth" is in the outfield, especially with Margot and Benintendi moving smartly through the system. I love me some Mookie Betts, but the road to the next championship may require moving him. I'd bet a donut that Dave Dombrowski, the guy who traded Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin, is mulling this over carefully. You have to give to get, and we deal from strength by trading Betts. DD's calling cards is that he rarely makes bad trades. He evaluates very well. What about putting Mookie back where he belongs, second base? If we are unfortunate enough not to move Hanley, he's likely to stay in LF for another year whether or not we'd like that to happen. I'd love to see Castillo (LF) JBJ (CF) and Betts (RF) but I'm not confident it happens. That would leave Hanley, JBJ, & Castillo for next year, the year after that Ortiz is likely retired Hanley slides to DH and one of Margot or Benintendi (which everone is not traded) takes over one of the corner OF spots and that would be decided by whose better in right. Pedroia plus a prospect should land the Sox a #2 type pitcher with a couple years of arb. eligibilty left, we sign an ace and we're back in business.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 22, 2015 18:58:30 GMT -5
Doesn't anyone remember the year Dustin Pedroia was having before the hamstring? He had erased all doubters about his power showing up again and had looked like the player of several years ago. Yes his defense had regressed from "superman" to very good. Robbing a part of the team that has given his all for so many years seems to be of poor judgment IMO. I love my kids as much as anyone, but there does need to be some balance and some experience in our line-up and in our clubhouse.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Aug 22, 2015 19:08:13 GMT -5
Doesn't anyone remember the year Dustin Pedroia was having before the hamstring? He had erased all doubters about his power showing up again and had looked like the player of several years ago. Yes his defense had regressed from "superman" to very good. Robbing a part of the team that has given his all for so many years seems to be of poor judgment IMO. I love my kids as much as anyone, but there does need to be some balance and some experience in our line-up and in our clubhouse. Yeah it's crazy. He's still probably the best player on the team, he's signed to a bargain contract, and people want to trade him? Ridiculous.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 22, 2015 19:14:19 GMT -5
Pining to trade Pedroia is fine, but other teams are going to look at him as a post-prime, 32 year old 2B with declining skills, recurring injuries, and eight year old dust on his MVP trophy who's owed $84 million. You will be looking at incredulous stares if you suggest trading Pedroia for anything of value. Besides, he still has substantial value for the RS. Eric's description of his leadership abilities is spot on. Dustin is the guy you go into battle with. He makes his teammates better. He is our own Captain Intagibles. But those intangibles carry little water elsewhere. You can salary dump him if you like, but I don't see the point of that. He's a generational Red Sox. You're going to retire his number one day. He's not washed up, but you can't trade him. There is no market for him. It's a complete non-starter. The kind of intagibles that leads his team to 3 out of 4 championships oh wait we just...never mind. Perception lags behind reality.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 22, 2015 19:29:37 GMT -5
Since this appears to be more than a prospect list, I would add the following: A. Wright/Johnson/Owens all belong high up on this list, perhaps as 1B, 1C and 1D with Miley. B. If you are discussing the integration of Benintendi in 2017, you would have to consider adding Hanley to the list. If Hanley stays in the outfield next year, you would have to consider adding Pedroia to the list. One of them is expendible because of Betts. C. Marrero needs to be on this list somewhere. I would take Chavis off the list. Either Devers will shift to 1B or Chavis will shift into a corner OF spot at higher levels, if necessary. I'd wager on the latter over the former, if forced to choose one over the other. So, my list would look like this. 1. Hanley or Pedroia - this is the biggest decision DD is going to make in the next three months. Personally, I read the tea leaves as DD offloading Hanley now and Pedroia next trade deadline, but we'll have to see. Betts shifts into the spot of the one who is traded and JBJ takes over CF. 2. One or two of Miley/Johnson/Owens/Wright - DD will want to clear two rotation spots, one for a FA stud and one for a SP arriving via trade to add to Porcello, Rodriguez and Buchholz. 3. Margot - our most expendible prospect 4. Guerra - sell high 5. Swihart or Vazquez 6. Marrero - not sure he has much value, but he'll have none if he's not traded. Expendible because of Holt/M.Hernandez. Depth SP - one of Johnson/Owens/Wright, Buttrey, Ball, Kopech, Espinoza RP - Barnes, Light OF - Benintendi, Longhi (1B/COF) IF - Moncada, Devers, Travis, Chavis (3B/COF) Pedroia won't be traded. He has a NTC, and is on a below market contract and is still a very good player. Trading him would be stupid. Where's your source on the NTC according to this, www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/that's simply not true. Can you articulate your ideas better then, "that would be stupid", especially when you are making facts up out of thin air. Below market contract increases anyones trade value making the player you guessed it more tradeable. Stop being a fan boy, in the end you root for the name on the front of the jersey not the back, EVERYONE is tradeable. We have a team that has bottomed out 3 of the past 4 years so his 'intangibles' can't be that high. He's past 30, injury prone at a position where the Sox are loaded and at this point has more value to a team in contention next season than the Sox who should be eyeing 2017, then again I said the same thing last year so what do I know. I know his time with the Sox should be ticking and he should be traded before his 10-5 rights kicks in, in order to add value to the next Sox team that can compete for the WS.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 22, 2015 19:32:28 GMT -5
Good list. I think there's an elephant in the room who should be added. Mookie Betts IF Jackie Bradley Jr's recent surge is a turning point in his development, and I think this is highly likely, it is logical to put Mookie on the table. Betts' accomplishments to date, his untapped potential, his young age, and his low cost make him one of the most valuable trade chips in the league. If the Red Sox are to land a young ace in the Sale/Archer/Gray category, Mookie gets that deal done. As good as Mookie has been defensively in CF, he is out of position there. And he will never approach the generational prowess of JBJ. I know many covet an outfield of both Betts and JBJ, but it's not a good fit. JBJ's bat does not play in RF, and Betts' doesn't work in LF. Betts' arm can't handle RF. Betts is one of those unique players who actually has more value on an opposing team than he does on his present team. He is THE sell high candidate in the league today. Of course this argument collapses in JBJ reverts to the hitter we've seen over the last three years. But he's made steady progress through the minors and odds are he's finally figured it out. Regardless, the one place the Red Sox have legitimate "deep depth" is in the outfield, especially with Margot and Benintendi moving smartly through the system. I love me some Mookie Betts, but the road to the next championship may require moving him. I'd bet a donut that Dave Dombrowski, the guy who traded Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin, is mulling this over carefully. You have to give to get, and we deal from strength by trading Betts. DD's calling cards is that he rarely makes bad trades. He evaluates very well. What about putting Mookie back where he belongs, second base? If we are unfortunate enough not to move Hanley, he's likely to stay in LF for another year whether or not we'd like that to happen. I'd love to see Castillo (LF) JBJ (CF) and Betts (RF) but I'm not confident it happens. That would leave Hanley, JBJ, & Castillo for next year, the year after that Ortiz is likely retired Hanley slides to DH and one of Margot or Benintendi (which everone is not traded) takes over one of the corner OF spots and that would be decided by whose better in right. Pedroia plus a prospect should land the Sox a #2 type pitcher with a couple years of arb. eligibilty left, we sign an ace and we're back in business. Why in the world would you get rid of Pedroia and keep Hanley. That is near the stupidest thing I've heard. We would be be way worse off and have gained realy nothing. Hanley makes more money than Pedroia. Is a poorer hitter (this could be debated) and one of the worst defenders in the game to one of the best. I'm all for keeping Hanley if we can't get rid of him. But he has to be insurance at DH and a starter in LF situationally.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 22, 2015 19:42:41 GMT -5
People, Xander Bogaerts is only 22 (and has already helped us win a World Series). I have no doubt he will continue to improve and work on his approach. Not to mention the insane step up in his defense this season, which more than makes up for his lack of power. The only way I move him is for an equally cost controlled, extremely valuable SP. Trading Xander would be robbing Peter to pay Paul. We'd then need a SS which would be just as difficult if not more difficult to find to replace him.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 22, 2015 20:54:28 GMT -5
Because we need pitching badly!
pedroia has value, we have a 2015 all star replacement ready to play 2b everyday and Hanley has no value, even if we threw in a dumptruck load of cash and thousands of lottery tickets.
In the offseason, We make a run at signing grienke. Then we have to trade players and prospects of value to the mets to get one of their good young pitchers.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 22, 2015 21:00:57 GMT -5
Why in the world would you get rid of Pedroia and keep Hanley.. Because we need pitching badly! pedroia has value, we have a 2015 all star replacement ready to play 2b everyday and Hanley has no value, even if we threw in a dumptruck load of cash and thousands of lottery tickets. In the offseason, We make a run at signing grienke. Then we have to trade players and prospects of value to the mets to get one of their good young pitchers. Hanley has negative value to us and even worse negative value at 2b. The answer to our problems is to not make the problems we have worse. You could not possibly improve one pitcher enough to sustain the dropoff from Pedroia to Hanley at 2b. You couldn't even break even under any circumstances, let alone improve the team.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 22, 2015 21:07:52 GMT -5
Why in the world would you get rid of Pedroia and keep Hanley.. Because we need pitching badly! pedroia has value, we have a 2015 all star replacement ready to play 2b everyday and Hanley has no value, even if we threw in a dumptruck load of cash and thousands of lottery tickets. In the offseason, We make a run at signing grienke. Then we have to trade players and prospects of value to the mets to get one of their good young pitchers. Hanley has negative value to us and even worse negative value at 2b. The answer to our problems is to not make the problems we have worse. You could not possibly improve one pitcher enough to sustain the dropoff from Pedroia to Hanley at 2b. You couldn't even break even under any circumstances, let alone improve the team. I meant holt could play 2b, if we could move pedroia. Holt was our 2015 all star I think.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 22, 2015 21:12:30 GMT -5
Did you delete the post that said that Hanley could play 2B or am I insane?
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 22, 2015 21:15:03 GMT -5
Why in the world would you get rid of Pedroia and keep Hanley.. Because we need pitching badly! pedroia has value, we have a 2015 all star replacement ready to play 2b everyday and Hanley has no value, even if we threw in a dumptruck load of cash and thousands of lottery tickets. In the offseason, We make a run at signing grienke. Then we have to trade players and prospects of value to the mets to get one of their good young pitchers. Hanley has negative value to us and even worse negative value at 2b. The answer to our problems is to not make the problems we have worse. You could not possibly improve one pitcher enough to sustain the dropoff from Pedroia to Hanley at 2b. You couldn't even break even under any circumstances, let alone improve the team. If the FO thinks we can win next year it won't be hard for the SOx to get pitching. It is the largest FA pool for starting pitching ever. There are 3 legitimate aces and several others that would slot in nere the top of are rotation. On top of that we have a deep farm that we could acquire almost any cost controlled pitcher that would be available. If the FO dose not think we can win next year then there is no reason to invest prospect or money in pitching and surely no reason to keep Hanley over pedroia. I'm quite confident that it is more than reasonable for the Sox to be competitive next season. Let's use the extra pieces we have to acquire pitching, not are best players.
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