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Sox Sign Shane Victorino: 3yrs/$39mil
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 5, 2012 14:15:44 GMT -5
Jeff Keppinger got a three year deal.... Now will everyone understand how this offseason is playing out?!?! Just because other teams act foolish doesn't mean that I would want my team to act foolish. It's not necessarily "foolish", it's paying what's necessary in this market. The industry is flush with cash right now, small to mid market clubs are offering role players large deals. If you refuse to pay market value to free agents, you'll be left with the leftover crop in late January, and you can land some great bargains and have a bad team. You can't allocate the savings into the draft and international free agency either. Most people here, including me, want to avoid dealing cost controlled young talent and prospects unless it's a very good deal. If you want to bring in talent to this organization, you have to sign players to market value contracts or trade prospects for short term players. If the Red Sox had viable MLB depth and a good team in place I'd want them to keep the payroll flexibility, but they have huge holes all over their team, so I want them to fill those holes on short term deals. It's been far from perfect, but the market is far from perfect, and the Red Sox didn't put themselves in a perfect position. There are still quality free agents out there, after seeing Swisher's deal it might make Victorino look pretty decent.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 5, 2012 14:33:45 GMT -5
Jeff Keppinger got a three year deal.... Now will everyone understand how this offseason is playing out?!?! Just because other teams act foolish doesn't mean that I would want my team to act foolish. It's hardly foolish. The Red Sox are adding talent to TRY to win games WHILE keeping the farm system, that we all love and cherish in tact, because we think we have a few great ones there. Is there a rule that says if we aren't going to be a playoff team, we can't spend more than $50M on the team's salaries? Who cares if we are paying $140M for an 85 win team? I don't get why the fans care about that? It's not our money. BC has a plan. Add talent on the short term that he can move if he needs to because of a prospect and hope to make the playoffs with these guys. If we don't make the playoffs we still have flexibility, our picks and our farm system.
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Post by slartibartfast on Dec 5, 2012 15:43:36 GMT -5
so far this offseason, 30 million dollars have gone to old washed up players: david ross, mike napoli, jonny gomes, and now victorino. I really hope that these players will perform well. if they do, great! but if not, we have dug ourselves back into the hole that we were in before. I think you have to remember that this year's UFA class is not exactly overflowing with quality. Josh Hamilton would have to be considered the "gem" of the available hitters and he's found the offers so unrewarding (with good reason, btw) he's leaning towards re-signing w/Texas. What the FO does now will tell us whether they have a plan or are simply shooting from the hip. If they can put together an acceptable OF with the moves they've made thus far, trading Ellsbury for a quality starter makes sense. Anyway, let's wait until they get to Fort Myers in February before concluding they haven't a plan.
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Post by feez732 on Dec 5, 2012 16:02:43 GMT -5
Just because other teams act foolish doesn't mean that I would want my team to act foolish. It's hardly foolish. The Red Sox are adding talent to TRY to win games WHILE keeping the farm system, that we all love and cherish in tact, because we think we have a few great ones there. Is there a rule that says if we aren't going to be a playoff team, we can't spend more than $50M on the team's salaries? Who cares if we are paying $140M for an 85 win team? I don't get why the fans care about that? It's not our money. BC has a plan. Add talent on the short term that he can move if he needs to because of a prospect and hope to make the playoffs with these guys. If we don't make the playoffs we still have flexibility, our picks and our farm system. Very well said. I also think that a three year contract for players coming off a down year makes a perfect lottery ticket. They were both elite players players only two years ago (Victorino with a WAR of 5.9 and Napoli with the highest wOBA among all players with >400 PAs in 2011). While they both had a less than exciting 2012, there's still the chance that they prove 2012 was more an off-year and less the beginning of the end. I'm not saying it's the most likely outcome, but if they do rebound decently, they'll have solid trade value after 2013 as above average players on a low-risk, two-year contract. At that point the Sox can either hold on to them if they think they have a decent team for 2014 or they can flip them for cost-controlled players, improving the team long term.
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2012 16:37:01 GMT -5
I also think that a three year contract for players coming off a down year makes a perfect lottery ticket. They were both elite players players only two years ago (Victorino with a WAR of 5.9 and Napoli with the highest wOBA among all players with >400 PAs in 2011). While they both had a less than exciting 2012, there's still the chance that they prove 2012 was more an off-year and less the beginning of the end. I'm not saying it's the most likely outcome, but if they do rebound decently, they'll have solid trade value after 2013 as above average players on a low-risk, two-year contract. At that point the Sox can either hold on to them if they think they have a decent team for 2014 or they can flip them for cost-controlled players, improving the team long term. I agree 100%. Well said. The best bargains in free agency often turn out to be buying low on established veterans coming off a bad season. That's the exact formula which allowed the Red Sox to pick up guys like JBJ late in the draft (counterpoint: Ranaudo).
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2012 16:40:00 GMT -5
Fangraphs' Matt Klaussen on Victorino's splits: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/shane-victorino-and-platoon-panic/Does the big split make Victorino a mere “platoon player?” Some think so, but that misunderstands what a platoon player really is. Pretty much every player has a split, and would be more valuable if roster space allowed all players to be platooned. Of course, as noted, Victorino has a particularly big split. However, if a .325 wOBA is good enough for him to play full-time, it does not really matter how it is distributed. A true platoon player is generally one whose overall wOBA is not good enough to start full-time, and only projects to be an average or better overall player when having the platoon advantage. For example, if Victorino was a .305 true talent overall wOBA player with a projected .325 wOBA versus lefties, then he probably be a platoon hitter (leaving aside defense and baesrunning). However, we have Victorino at .325 overall.
Leaving aside the debate of whether or not a .325 overall wOBA is good enough given Victorino’s position and other skills, does a particular projected distribution versus left- and right-handed pitchers in itself make his offense less valuable? After all, about three-fourths of the average player’s plate appearances come against right-handed pitching. Still, in terms of traditional linear weights, this does not make Victorino less valuable. If a player has a .325 wOBA versus both left- and right-handed pitchers rather than Victorino’s .366 and .309, in terms of offensive linear weights it would be worth… exactly the same. By traditional linear weights, this is not different than a player who has a .309 wOBA for the first three-fourths of the season and a .366 for the last one-fourth. It still comes out to .325 overall. What is the problem?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 5, 2012 17:56:12 GMT -5
That's an expensive lottery ticket, and it's being paid on mediocrity.
Like I said, if the Sox can deal Ellsbury for a good pitcher, and Victorino winds up in CF and the Sox get a legit bat in RF (preferably LH given how righty this lineup is), then the Sox did alright with this deal, but sometimes players when they're in the 30s has a down year, it could very well mean a decline (and it's not like Victorino is slowly scaling down the mountain peak of superstardom), and spending $40 million to see if it not's a decline doesn't makes sense to me.
Also what doesn't make sense to me is that he's highly tradeable if he were to be bad this year. I think teams might be foolish enough to think it was simply a down year (see Cleveland and their offer, too), but if he has two down years in a row, I doubt any team will be begging us to let them take him off of our hands.
Honestly, this is the kind of acquisition if another team made it, we would have laughed at them in the past.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 5, 2012 18:33:17 GMT -5
That's an expensive lottery ticket, and it's being paid on mediocrity. Like I said, if the Sox can deal Ellsbury for a good pitcher, and Victorino winds up in CF and the Sox get a legit bat in RF (preferably LH given how righty this lineup is), then the Sox did alright with this deal, but sometimes players when they're in the 30s has a down year, it could very well mean a decline (and it's not like Victorino is slowly scaling down the mountain peak of superstardom), and spending $40 million to see if it not's a decline doesn't makes sense to me. Also what doesn't make sense to me is that he's highly tradeable if he were to be bad this year. I think teams might be foolish enough to think it was simply a down year (see Cleveland and their offer, too), but if he has two down years in a row, I doubt any team will be begging us to let them take him off of our hands. Honestly, this is the kind of acquisition if another team made it, we would have laughed at them in the past. No not really given the large contracts being given out to every type of player this offseason (from every team)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 5, 2012 18:50:49 GMT -5
That's an expensive lottery ticket, and it's being paid on mediocrity. Like I said, if the Sox can deal Ellsbury for a good pitcher, and Victorino winds up in CF and the Sox get a legit bat in RF (preferably LH given how righty this lineup is), then the Sox did alright with this deal, but sometimes players when they're in the 30s has a down year, it could very well mean a decline (and it's not like Victorino is slowly scaling down the mountain peak of superstardom), and spending $40 million to see if it not's a decline doesn't makes sense to me. Also what doesn't make sense to me is that he's highly tradeable if he were to be bad this year. I think teams might be foolish enough to think it was simply a down year (see Cleveland and their offer, too), but if he has two down years in a row, I doubt any team will be begging us to let them take him off of our hands. Honestly, this is the kind of acquisition if another team made it, we would have laughed at them in the past. No not really given the large contracts being given out to every type of player this offseason (from every team) I know that the market is warped, but wouldn't it then make better sense for the Sox to save their money for the guys who are difference makers if they are trying to compete in 2013 - like a Hamilton? And if they're not, then pass? And if it's not about 2013, and it is about the future, wouldn't it be better to ignore the ridiculous free agent market for now, and concentrate on getting as much value for the current roster that you can get? I mean, if Will Myers is on the table for KC, then why not deal Lester? If you get get one of Seattle's young arms for example, then get that guy for Ellsbury (if you think he exceeds the vale of a compensation pick) I'm of the belief that the Sox have a decent farm system, but that alone won't be enough and what they'll need is more help for that farm system and I think if they can import minor league talent from other teams that's ready around the same time the current minor league hopefuls are ready and have a very low payroll and be able to grab the marquis free agent pitcher or take on a contract in a trade, then the Sox could have a team that can go from bad to very good really quickly - and stay really good.
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Post by dcri on Dec 5, 2012 19:33:57 GMT -5
I'm sort of warming up to this signing.
The stats, which, of course, only tell part of the story, do not show a huge difference between these two. Victorino's career OPS is .770 and Ellsbury's is .791. Both are fast, good defenders, who steal bases.
Ellsbury had one enormous season when he showed considerable power. He did not show that before that year, nor did he this year. Victorino has been more consistent. Both had down years this year. Ellsbury was injured, but even when he played, and supposedly was over the injury, he wasn't the same player as he was before. Victorino supposedly was hurt this year as well.
Victorino is older, but Ellsbury has been more fragile. Interestingly the best season each has had was in their 27th year.,
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 5, 2012 19:54:02 GMT -5
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Dec 5, 2012 20:07:08 GMT -5
Sands is taking a hit on the depth chart. Gomes, Victorino, napoli ... all 3 hit lefty pitching, OF-1B. Clearly puts Sands out of the picture. Bench/AAA until injury bug hits. But who plays RF when Victorino has a sore leg and misses 2 games? Nava? !!! Ciriaco? Kalish is moving up the org chart as a better bench option than Sands ... if Salty backs up Napoli at 1B. I do not know.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 5, 2012 20:29:56 GMT -5
DFA, you're getting way ahead of everything. Victorino may end up being the starting center fielder if Ellsbury is traded, and we have no idea who will make the team on the bench. Gomes can play right field, and while he's not optimal there he's not going to get ahead of things. Kalish could very well be the starting RF if Victorino ends up in center. Who knows? It's too early to start piecing together who the #5 outfielder will be when we're really only sure of one of the three starters.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 5, 2012 21:21:48 GMT -5
Can people stop with the "this proves they don't have a plan" or "if this happens then we'll find out if they truly have a plan or are just shooting from the hip" nonsense. I get making a point, but they have a plan and like Hatfield pointed out plans are multifaceted and complex, they are also fluid and evolve, but regardless of how things play out, there is a plan. In fact, there are multiple plans.
Whether you know what it is or not, which none of us do, is irrelevant.
The other thing is plans are difficult to execute. Some free agents just don't want to go to a certain place for whatever reason. Some under your control and some not. For example, I can be pissed Texas got Soria for 2 year 8M and the Sox didn't make that deal, but they may not have had the option to make that deal or any deal with him.
And to keep this thread worthy, just becuase Keith Law says Victorino has lost bat speed doesn't mean it's either 1. True or 2. perminant. Charlie Manuel said he was playing thru a wrist injury last year, but is now healthy. It's possible Klaw is wrong, caught him during a bad stritch or the injury played a role.
Wait and see
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 5, 2012 21:25:33 GMT -5
Wait, isn't Keith Law that dumb idiot who doesn't see players in person and has no credibility? Or does that only apply when he's down on a player in the Sox system?
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 5, 2012 21:50:40 GMT -5
But who plays RF when Victorino has a sore leg and misses 2 games? Hamilton? Potentially you have 3 OF's that can play any position in the OF if you keep Ells. Or you have a lesser version if you use him in a deal and play Kalish instead. Either way, it's a solid OF rotation that moves each between multiple positions when Gomes shuffles into LF based on matchup. Not sure why Sands is in the conversation, though I do prefer hearing his name rather than Gomez. EDIT: maybe not every position with Ells, not sure I'd want him in RF. That problem goes away with Kalish starting....
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Post by Guidas on Dec 5, 2012 22:15:04 GMT -5
I also think that a three year contract for players coming off a down year makes a perfect lottery ticket. They were both elite players players only two years ago (Victorino with a WAR of 5.9 and Napoli with the highest wOBA among all players with >400 PAs in 2011). While they both had a less than exciting 2012, there's still the chance that they prove 2012 was more an off-year and less the beginning of the end. I'm not saying it's the most likely outcome, but if they do rebound decently, they'll have solid trade value after 2013 as above average players on a low-risk, two-year contract. At that point the Sox can either hold on to them if they think they have a decent team for 2014 or they can flip them for cost-controlled players, improving the team long term. I agree 100%. Well said. The best bargains in free agency often turn out to be buying low on established veterans coming off a bad season. That's the exact formula which allowed the Red Sox to pick up guys like JBJ late in the draft (counterpoint: Ranaudo). I agree with all of this, except the application of "buy low" to Napoli and Victorino. That ain't low. Cody Ross was buy low. So was, to a certain degree, Adrian Beltre (got him for about 15% off). These guys are being paid at or above market value.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 5, 2012 22:31:04 GMT -5
But who plays RF when Victorino has a sore leg and misses 2 games? Hamilton? Potentially you have 3 OF's that can play any position in the OF if you keep Ells. Or you have a lesser version if you use him in a deal and play Kalish instead. Either way, it's a solid OF rotation that moves each between multiple positions when Gomes shuffles into LF based on matchup. Not sure why Sands is in the conversation, though I do prefer hearing his name rather than Gomez. EDIT: maybe not every position with Ells, not sure I'd want him in RF. That problem goes away with Kalish starting.... I'd be totally on-board with Hamilton in LF, Ellsbury in CF, and Victorino in RF. If that scenario unfolded I'd be happier with the Victorino signing. In that scenario the middle of the order would be stabilized and quite lethal and Victorino's contributions with his glove in RF and batting lower in the order would be more justifiable. Without an impact bat, Victorino's bat becomes more crucial in my opinion. And of course with Gomes and Kalish around as depth for nagging injuries to Hamilton or any calamity that befalls Ellsbury, the Sox outfield would have to be considered a major strength. Of course all of that would hinge on the unlikely event that Zack Greinke chooses Texas over the Dodger dollars.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 5, 2012 23:08:00 GMT -5
Wait, isn't Keith Law that dumb idiot who doesn't see players in person and has no credibility? Or does that only apply when he's down on a player in the Sox system? Keith Law is entitled to his opinion and while he has some credibility; he's by no means what I would consider an expert scout. Victorino's year last season, raises red flags, but do you think the Red Sox scouts think he's got "slider bat speed" or is a "4th outfielder"? Keith Law held a job in the Toronto front office, big whoop. Ben Cherrington has help much hire profile and more important jobs in a front office longer than Keith Law has. No reason to put more stock in Keith Laws opinion than Cherringtons, other than to be a pessimistic fan. In which case, Keith Law is a perfect guy to look up to. Is it possible Keith Law is right and the deal is going to be terrible? For sure, just stop acting like his opinion is gosple. Bottom line, we dont know - there are reaons to be skeptical and reasons to like it. We'll see how it plays out. His WARs the last few years: 2007: 3.1 2008: 4.2 2009: 3.5 2010: 2.8 2011: 5.2 2012: 2.3 sometimes contract years work the opposite on players and reports are he had a wrist injury he played through and it affected him.
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Post by welovewally on Dec 6, 2012 7:30:52 GMT -5
I don't like this signing much because he is not a 3/4/5 hitter & he cant Pitch but I don't hate it as much as the Napoli signing. I think Victorino will be good in RF & with Ellsbury leading off Victorino can bat second with Pedroia 3rd & Ortiz 5th but who hits 4th? And don't say Napoli. That's a joke
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 6, 2012 9:31:49 GMT -5
Ortiz can hit 4th with a combo of Napoli and WMB 5/6
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2012 9:34:03 GMT -5
I think Victorino will be good in RF & with Ellsbury leading off Victorino can bat second with Pedroia 3rd & Ortiz 5th but who hits 4th? And don't say Napoli. Napoli.
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Post by jioh on Dec 6, 2012 10:29:42 GMT -5
That's an expensive lottery ticket, and it's being paid on mediocrity. Like I said, if the Sox can deal Ellsbury for a good pitcher.... A Phillies-fan-friend suggest that they might want Ben Revere from Twins (speed, zero power, 5% walk rate, but cheap), and might be willing to offer Vance Worley and Trevor May. (I realize that this is an idea, and not actual information.)
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Post by nexus on Dec 6, 2012 11:47:34 GMT -5
I agree with all of this, except the application of "buy low" to Napoli and Victorino. That ain't low. Cody Ross was buy low. So was, to a certain degree, Adrian Beltre (got him for about 15% off). These guys are being paid at or above market value. Sure, it's low. Both were considered above average if not elite talents as recently as 200 days ago. If Napoli repeats 2011 performance in 2012 he's undoubtedly in line for a massive pay day. The same for Victorino. It's more dollars than the Ross/Beltre signings, but it solidifies two big needs in a fiscally responsible way. I believe it's important to note the growing number of LH starters in the AL East. There's now Price, Sabathia, Pettitte, Buehrle, Romero, Moore, Britton, Matusz, Chen... I could be missing others. At any rate, Victorino has never had problems handling LHP and this perhaps was the thought process as to why the FO went after him hard.
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Post by jioh on Dec 6, 2012 13:19:21 GMT -5
That's an expensive lottery ticket, and it's being paid on mediocrity. Like I said, if the Sox can deal Ellsbury for a good pitcher.... A Phillies-fan-friend suggest that they might want Ben Revere from Twins (speed, zero power, 5% walk rate, but cheap), and might be willing to offer Vance Worley and Trevor May. (I realize that this is an idea, and not actual information.) And then Phils actually made that trade.
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