SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 25, 2015 14:16:04 GMT -5
You may be right about that. Still, it would be very good if they could build up their leagues thanks to the thaw in relations.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,438
|
Castillo
Aug 25, 2015 14:29:40 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by nomar on Aug 25, 2015 14:29:40 GMT -5
If we put the Marlins in Cuba can we avoid ever seeing that ugly park again?
|
|
|
Castillo
Aug 25, 2015 15:33:34 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 25, 2015 15:33:34 GMT -5
I think he is the real deal. I saw Castillo play last year at Fenway live and he really, really impressed me with his tools. I'm practically begging for a Betts-Castillo-Bradley outfield.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 25, 2015 16:15:30 GMT -5
Castillo's career MLB numbers are outstanding. .311/.351/.468 slash line over 203 PA. That kind of production sustained, plus the CF-caliber defensive range and a hose that plays in right... that is a fringe All Star. On the other hand, his career peripherals are a bit bizarre. 20% HR/FB and a .359 BABIP. Extremely high ground ball rate at 67.5%. The BABIP can at least be partially attributed to his GB%. But what about the power? Is he really this good, or are we going to see a fierce regression to his baseline in terms of both power and average? Among MLB players with 200 or more PA 2014-5, that 20.0% HR/FB is tied for 18th out of 451 players. The thing is, though HR/FB is not the best measure of pure power -- to get that, you need to subtract popups from the denominator. Rusney has yet to hit a popup (for an out) in MLB. Really. So he's actually tied for 27th in HR/OF-FB, which is still impressive. Ortiz is 32nd with 19.6%. I have no doubt that his HR/OF-FB is more or less for real. It might be actually 18.5% or so, which would put him about 45th with Pujols, Rizzo, and Adam Jones. He seems to have their kind of power (Jones in particular seems like a good comp); I mean, the guy is ripped. And Rusney's HR's have averaged 395', Standard Distance, whereas Adam Jones' this year have averaged 397'. That doesn't prove anything, but it doesn't contradict the impression. The lack of popups may be a correlate of the huge ground ball rate. If they could find a minor adjustment (probably initial hands position) that would change his swing path upwards a bit, he'd start popping up occasionally, which would reduce the HR/FB a bit, but that would be more than offset by more FBs, period. Oh, and his ml numbers are underwhelming (110 wRC+ in 172 PA in AAA). Those need to be included. But he's demonstrated that he's good enough to start in RF next year. Previously you referred to us having 2.5 good outfielders. I'd say we have three between Castillo, JBJ & Betts or do you thinking I'm jumping the gun or JBJ or Castillo?
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 25, 2015 17:31:33 GMT -5
Castillo's career MLB numbers are outstanding. .311/.351/.468 slash line over 203 PA. That kind of production sustained, plus the CF-caliber defensive range and a hose that plays in right... that is a fringe All Star. On the other hand, his career peripherals are a bit bizarre. 20% HR/FB and a .359 BABIP. Extremely high ground ball rate at 67.5%. The BABIP can at least be partially attributed to his GB%. But what about the power? Is he really this good, or are we going to see a fierce regression to his baseline in terms of both power and average? Among MLB players with 200 or more PA 2014-5, that 20.0% HR/FB is tied for 18th out of 451 players. The thing is, though HR/FB is not the best measure of pure power -- to get that, you need to subtract popups from the denominator. Rusney has yet to hit a popup (for an out) in MLB. Really. So he's actually tied for 27th in HR/OF-FB, which is still impressive. Ortiz is 32nd with 19.6%. I have no doubt that his HR/OF-FB is more or less for real. It might be actually 18.5% or so, which would put him about 45th with Pujols, Rizzo, and Adam Jones. He seems to have their kind of power (Jones in particular seems like a good comp); I mean, the guy is ripped. And Rusney's HR's have averaged 395', Standard Distance, whereas Adam Jones' this year have averaged 397'. That doesn't prove anything, but it doesn't contradict the impression. The lack of popups may be a correlate of the huge ground ball rate. If they could find a minor adjustment (probably initial hands position) that would change his swing path upwards a bit, he'd start popping up occasionally, which would reduce the HR/FB a bit, but that would be more than offset by more FBs, period. This is real good analysis and one which is likely corroborated by the scouting reports. A downward swing plane would explain all of the bunches of GBs, the crushed line drive home runs, and the lack of infield fly balls. At a certain level, though, would you even want to make any adjustments to this approach? Among others, Yasiel Puig and Starling Marte have similar (though milder) batted ball profiles, and for hitters with the speed to leg out singles on ground balls to the left side and the bat speed to hit line drive home runs, it might not be that much of an issue.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 25, 2015 20:57:08 GMT -5
With his kind of pop I'd look to make a minor adjustment try. He's not a finished product yet potentially and Fenway's LF could benefit from some upward swing path. Dangerous to modify anything but I think I'd consider it with just a slight hand location drop. This guy has all sorts of pop in his bat.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2015 0:21:52 GMT -5
Previously you referred to us having 2.5 good outfielders. I'd say we have three between Castillo, JBJ & Betts or do you thinking I'm jumping the gun or JBJ or Castillo? Until his big Monday night I thought it was premature to say that Rusney will be good as opposed to merely average. But his TAv including Pawtucket is now up to .272, which is a bit above average for a RF, and he's definitely a plus defender there, projecting to be +12 DRS per 150 games. There's still a small chance that he doesn't help you make the post-season but doesn't hurt you either, putting up a bit under 3.0 WAR (which is the average value of a starting position player; the last few days I was confusing that with 2.0, which is the point below which you should think about upgrading). But it seems increasingly likely now that he'll be good. How good? Perhaps very. The question is whether his struggles at Pawtucket this year represented an actual learning experience after pitchers adjusted to him, or is just random variation, a cold stretch, whereas he's now hot. That certainly seems to be the case with Shaw. I'm agnostic about Rusney, but my best guess is that it's partly improvement and partly random. If it's half real (which I think is a bit too much, but it's easy to work with), that gives him about a 125 wRC+, which is what Adam Jones has this year. In fact, Jones looks more and more like a very good comp, both offensively and defensively*. So right now if I had to guess Rusney's WAR for next year, it would as high as 4.0. Now, if he goes 0 for his next 16, that guess will come down, perhaps quite a bit. But right now it's looking very promising. *GGs notwithstanding, Jones has slightly below range in CF, which (the last couple of years) he more than makes up with with his arm.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 26, 2015 11:04:13 GMT -5
Previously you referred to us having 2.5 good outfielders. I'd say we have three between Castillo, JBJ & Betts or do you thinking I'm jumping the gun or JBJ or Castillo? Until his big Monday night I thought it was premature to say that Rusney will be good as opposed to merely average. But his TAv including Pawtucket is now up to .272, which is a bit above average for a RF, and he's definitely a plus defender there, projecting to be +12 DRS per 150 games. There's still a small chance that he doesn't help you make the post-season but doesn't hurt you either, putting up a bit under 3.0 WAR (which is the average value of a starting position player; the last few days I was confusing that with 2.0, which is the point below which you should think about upgrading). But it seems increasingly likely now that he'll be good. How good? Perhaps very. The question is whether his struggles at Pawtucket this year represented an actual learning experience after pitchers adjusted to him, or is just random variation, a cold stretch, whereas he's now hot. That certainly seems to be the case with Shaw. I'm agnostic about Rusney, but my best guess is that it's partly improvement and partly random. If it's half real (which I think is a bit too much, but it's easy to work with), that gives him about a 125 wRC+, which is what Adam Jones has this year. In fact, Jones looks more and more like a very good comp, both offensively and defensively*. So right now if I had to guess Rusney's WAR for next year, it would as high as 4.0. Now, if he goes 0 for his next 16, that guess will come down, perhaps quite a bit. But right now it's looking very promising. *GGs notwithstanding, Jones has slightly below range in CF, which (the last couple of years) he more than makes up with with his arm. Can't remember where I read it, but it was stated that he did fix his swing to shorten it up which coincided with him hitting much better. So I think it's more likely than not to be sustainable.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Aug 26, 2015 12:09:32 GMT -5
Castillo's career MLB numbers are outstanding. .311/.351/.468 slash line over 203 PA. That kind of production sustained, plus the CF-caliber defensive range and a hose that plays in right... that is a fringe All Star. On the other hand, his career peripherals are a bit bizarre. 20% HR/FB and a .359 BABIP. Extremely high ground ball rate at 67.5%. The BABIP can at least be partially attributed to his GB%. But what about the power? Is he really this good, or are we going to see a fierce regression to his baseline in terms of both power and average? Among MLB players with 200 or more PA 2014-5, that 20.0% HR/FB is tied for 18th out of 451 players. The thing is, though HR/FB is not the best measure of pure power -- to get that, you need to subtract popups from the denominator. Rusney has yet to hit a popup (for an out) in MLB. Really. So he's actually tied for 27th in HR/OF-FB, which is still impressive. Ortiz is 32nd with 19.6%. I have no doubt that his HR/OF-FB is more or less for real. It might be actually 18.5% or so, which would put him about 45th with Pujols, Rizzo, and Adam Jones. He seems to have their kind of power (Jones in particular seems like a good comp); I mean, the guy is ripped. And Rusney's HR's have averaged 395', Standard Distance, whereas Adam Jones' this year have averaged 397'. That doesn't prove anything, but it doesn't contradict the impression. The lack of popups may be a correlate of the huge ground ball rate. If they could find a minor adjustment (probably initial hands position) that would change his swing path upwards a bit, he'd start popping up occasionally, which would reduce the HR/FB a bit, but that would be more than offset by more FBs, period. Oh, and his ml numbers are underwhelming (110 wRC+ in 172 PA in AAA). Those need to be included. But he's demonstrated that he's good enough to start in RF next year. Good stuff here. Eric I have not looked critically at Castillo's swing but in my mind's eye it seems 1. long and 2. with a pronounced uppercut rather than a downswing. In my mind if he were 'ahead' with a pitch this could result in a GB by hitting the top of the ball. By the same token, being a bit late with the swing could cause balls to be elevated as the bat has not yet elevated through the zone. I remember Yaz going through stretches where he was a 4-3 machine but balls to the left side were in the air. From my view it looked that in trying to drive balls in the air with an uppercut, contact was made at the ball top when he was pulling. It might be interesting to know with Rusney, if not already provided, the % of balls in the air hit to the various fields. [/quote]
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Aug 26, 2015 12:11:59 GMT -5
If we put the Marlins in Cuba can we avoid ever seeing that ugly park again? That park is totally ridiculous but I actually kind of like it. Almost every new park since Camden opened in '92 has gone with the sort of golden-age industrial, steel-and-brick look, which is great. But it's nice to see some variation and Miami going modernist fits the city and the team as well as Camden Yards fits Baltimore and PNC fits Pittsburgh.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 26, 2015 13:27:36 GMT -5
The Sox have excess value of center field talent in Betts, Bradley, Castillo and you could extend that out to 2-3 guys in the minors as well. The incremental value they get back from trading a guy from one of those premium spots might be worth it. I understand that they love essentially a 2 CF outfield with one of them in RF but that last CF guy is excess talent.
A strong case could be made though for keeping all of Castillo, Betts and Bradley because one may well flame out. I think they study the remainder of this year and make that decision in the winter. Ergo trying Hanley at 1st...etc. This team is officially in tryout mode.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2015 16:06:56 GMT -5
The Sox have excess value of center field talent in Betts, Bradley, Castillo and you could extend that out to 2-3 guys in the minors as well. The incremental value they get back from trading a guy from one of those premium spots might be worth it. I understand that they love essentially a 2 CF outfield with one of them in RF but that last CF guy is excess talent. A strong case could be made though for keeping all of Castillo, Betts and Bradley because one may well flame out. I think they study the remainder of this year and make that decision in the winter. Ergo trying Hanley at 1st...etc. This team is officially in tryout mode. The completely conclusive case for keeping all three is that the traditional corner OFers in the Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Braun etc. mode are a dying breed. You can't trade one of these guys and expect to find a guy whose glove limits him to a corner, but whose bat is so good that he's as good a corner outfielder, overall. You just can't. Now, if a team had an excess of those guys and no CF, there might be a match .... Castillo for Wil Myers, in general, would work on paper, if Myers' bat had lived up to its hype. But right now Castillo projects to be the better player, at least for next year.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,438
|
Castillo
Aug 26, 2015 17:10:51 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by nomar on Aug 26, 2015 17:10:51 GMT -5
The Sox have excess value of center field talent in Betts, Bradley, Castillo and you could extend that out to 2-3 guys in the minors as well. The incremental value they get back from trading a guy from one of those premium spots might be worth it. I understand that they love essentially a 2 CF outfield with one of them in RF but that last CF guy is excess talent. A strong case could be made though for keeping all of Castillo, Betts and Bradley because one may well flame out. I think they study the remainder of this year and make that decision in the winter. Ergo trying Hanley at 1st...etc. This team is officially in tryout mode. The completely conclusive case for keeping all three is that the traditional corner OFers in the Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Braun etc. mode are a dying breed. You can't trade one of these guys and expect to find a guy whose glove limits him to a corner, but whose bat is so good that he's as good a corner outfielder, overall. You just can't. Now, if a team had an excess of those guys and no CF, there might be a match .... Castillo for Wil Myers, in general, would work on paper, if Myers' bat had lived up to its hype. But right now Castillo projects to be the better player, at least for next year. Myers can't stay healthy but I would take that trade. He's hit well this year, especially on the road. He'd give you solid COF defense and has a much higher ceiling offensively IMO. He could have some great prime years once his power peaks.
|
|
|