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Post by ethanbein on Aug 26, 2015 18:59:00 GMT -5
This was cropping up on the main forum, but maybe should be here. What would you guys have for your top 10 as of today? Here was Eric: Espinoza {is} making another jump in the September 1 rankings update). I've got it Moncada, Espinoza (!), Benintendi (!), Devers, Owens, Margot, Guerra, Johnson, but 2 through 4 are subject to change (Benny's the tough guy to rank). Very curious as to what the site will say. Personally, I'd have something like Moncada, Benintendi, Espinoza, Guerra, Owens, Devers, Margot, Johnson, Kopech, Chavis. Beyond that, Trey Ball would probably be out of my top 30, and I'd move Logan Allen into the top 20. What do you guys think? |
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Post by beantown on Aug 26, 2015 19:31:51 GMT -5
I think if you switch Guerra at #4 with Devers, I pretty much agree with you. Everything we've heard about Devers screams massive upside, especially the power obviously for an 18 yr old in the SAL and I'd be reluctant to move him down for what looks like a blip of bad luck/wear and tear after a long season.
Also, if you're moving Allen into the top 20, how far does Raudes move? As high as 30 maybe?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 26, 2015 19:36:12 GMT -5
Tier 1:
Moncada
Tier 2:
Benintendi
Devers
Espinosa
Margot
Tier 3:
Guerra
Owens
Johnson
Kopeck
Tier 4:
Travis
Chavis
Shaw
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 26, 2015 20:18:53 GMT -5
I'm not ready to move Devers quiet yet from the #1 spot. The kid can flat out hit, and his D has been better than expected. I think Espinoza can easily leap frog Guerra, Johnson and Owens but after that it's iffy. He might have the highest ceiling in the organization but I think all Of Devers, Moncada, and Benintendi have the ceiling/track record combo that keeps them above him.
My top ten would look like the sites as is, I'd put Espinoza #4 and move everyone else down 1.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 26, 2015 20:38:34 GMT -5
Edited from earlier today:
1) Benintendi
2) Was Moncada, now Espinoza
3) Was Devers, now Moncada
4) Was Espinoza, now Devers
5) Johnson
6) Owens
7) Margot
8) Guerra
9) Kopeck
10) Travis
20) Ball
Beni's K rate is less than 10% in his first year in the minors and Moncada's is over 22%. Beni is plus defense. Who knows long term where Moncada even ends up playing. Moncada's Cuban numbers were not as good as Jose Iglesias's hitting numbers in some ways even when a year older and Iglesias had a much better glove. Lots of guys steal a ton of bases in the low minors. Another consideration to me is that Cuban players go from making $10 per month to millions of dollars sometime. That sort of culture shock can completely change a person's work ethic, confidence level, attitude in general and makes me hesitant to even sign Cuban players to a degree, particularly with $30 mil type signing bonuses for 19 year olds. I'm extremely happy Moncada is doing so well and it sure looks hopeful but I'm not banking on him yet.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 26, 2015 20:48:08 GMT -5
Tier 1: Moncada Tier 2: Benintendi Devers Espinosa Margot Tier 3: Guerra Owens Johnson Kopeck Tier 4: Travis Chavis Shaw Shaw graduated, but I pretty much agree with this. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 26, 2015 21:52:59 GMT -5
Shaw has not graduated. He's only got 85 ABs entering tonight. We graduate at 130.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 26, 2015 22:37:10 GMT -5
The current Top 8, in whatever order you have it, is just lovely. I'd have Guerra eighth but could easily have him in the top 60 in all of baseball.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,405 
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Post by ianrs on Aug 26, 2015 22:38:25 GMT -5
1. Moncada
2. Devers
3. Espinosa
4. Benintendi
5. Margot
6. Owens
7. Guerra
8. Johnson
9. Kopech
10. Shaw
11. Travis
12. Chavis
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Post by greenmonsterwhalers on Aug 26, 2015 22:59:11 GMT -5
Top-Notch Prospects (top 25 milb)
1) Moncada
2) Devers
3) Benintendi
4) Espinoza (lower than 25th due to low milb level but sky-high potential justifies this tier)
Very Good Prospects (top 100 milb)
5) Margot
6) Owens
7) Johnson
8) Guerra
9) Kopech (outside top 100 due to suspension but has enough upside to be in this tier)
Advanced milb-Level Overachievers/Prospects With Substantial Upside
10) Shaw
11) Travis
12) Marrero
13) Chavis
14) Light
15) Allen
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 26, 2015 22:59:41 GMT -5
I will take a stab at rankings, why not:
1. Moncada (If Buxton graduates it's between Moncada and Urias for my #1 in baseball).
2. Devers
3. Benintendi
4. Espinoza
5. Margot
6/7 Owens/Johnson (Not sure what order I like here. I think Johnson is better, but the arm injury is a real concern. Owens has been able to get through a lot more innings every year, which I think may give him the edge. It is really close).
8. Guerra
9. Travis
10. Kopech
11. Shaw
12. Dubon
13. Marrero
14. Chavis (Probably had the most disappointing season in the system, from my perspective. Great swing, great tools, but that strikeout rate is so high that it is going to take a lot to overcome).
15. Stankiewicz
16. Rijo
17. Longhi
18. Ball
19. Aro
20. Allen
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Post by wskeleton76 on Aug 27, 2015 0:21:01 GMT -5
1) Yoan Moncada
2) Andrew Benintendi
3) Anderson Espinoza
4) Rafael Devers
5) Manuel Margot
6) Henry Owens
7) Brian Johnson
8) Michael Kopech
9) Javier Guerra
10) Travis Shaw
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Post by jmei on Aug 27, 2015 5:31:49 GMT -5
1. Moncada
2. Devers
3. Benintendi
4. Espinoza
5. Margot
6. Owens
7. Guerra
8. Johnson
9. Kopech
10. Shaw
11. Chavis
12. Marrero
13. Travis
14. Dubon
15. Longhi
16. Rijo
17. Light
18. Ball
19. Buttrey
20. X Basabe
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Post by cologneredsox on Aug 27, 2015 7:28:30 GMT -5
Like jmei, bit I'd switch the Travisses
1. Moncada
2. Devers
3. Benintendi
4. Espinoza
5. Margot
6. Owens
7. Guerra
8. Johnson
9. Kopech
10. Travis
11. Chavis
12. Marrero
13. Shaw
14. Dubon
15. Longhi
16. Rijo
17. Light
18. Ball
19. Buttrey
20. X Basabe
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 27, 2015 7:54:23 GMT -5
Based solely on highest ceiling.
1. Devers Long season has taken a little toll but he has the best power potential.
2. Espinoza Still very young but the most exciting pitching prospect in decades.
3. Moncada Time away from Bball compared to end results, impressive.
4. Benni Late bloomer, has had a helluva yr. Can he sustain it?
5. Margot Future trade chip that will bring the Sox a starting pitcher and have good career.
6. Owens Solid future number 3, at times solid #2, possible trade chip.
7. Guerra Another trade chip that could end up being an all-star, can he continue to hit?
8. Kopech Questions surround but the potential is there to be a very good MLB starter.
9. Johnson Will be a steady 4,5 for a long time. 10. Shaw, Of course this pick is due to his unlikely tear to start his MLB career. Could Fenway really be that friendly to a lefty swing such as Shaw?
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 27, 2015 8:38:58 GMT -5
I took the fangraphs stats on the top 20 SP ranked position players. I think Margot is over-rated and Travis and Shaw are under-rated. I intend to put this in a graph when the minor league seasons are completed, but since time is short for this new ranking here is the data in less than optimum form.
Name SP Ranking Level Age PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS+ wRC+ BB% K% BABIP ISO
Devers 1 A 18 451 11 .275 .318 .433 .342 112 4.70% 17.50% .313 .158
Moncada 2 A 20 302 7 .292 .383 .459 .387 141 10.30% 21.90% .364 .167
Margot 3 A+ 20 198 3 .282 .321 .420 .339 114 5.60% 7.60% .289. .138
Margot 3 AA 20 223 1 .249 .309 .371 .311 95 7.60% 14.80% .292 .122
Guerra 5 A 19 427 15 .277 .323 .454 .353 118 5.60% 24.40% .339 .177
Benintendi 8 SS 21 153 7 .290 .408 .540 .436 176 16.30% 9.80% .279 .250
Benintendi 8 A 21 25 2 .368 .480 .684 .504 217 20.00% 8.00% .313 .316
Travis 10 AA 22 230 3 .291 .365 .414 .358 127 10.40% 11.30% .318 .123
Travis 10 A+ 22 278 5 .313 .378 .467 .387 145 9.40% 15.50% .356 .154
Marrero 11 AAA 25 370 6 .251 .310 .344 .306 90 7.60% 21.90% .310 .034
Chavis 13 A 20 422 15 .225 .278 .402 .310 91 5.90% 30.60% .294 .176
Shaw 14 MLB 25 96 6 329 .376 .600 .414 165 6.50% 19.40% .355 .271
Shaw 14 AAA 25 322 5 249 .318 .356 .315 96 8.10% 16.80% .289 .107
Rijo 16 A+ 19 404 4 .251 .308 .358 .311 94 6.40% 21.50% .315 .107
Dubon 17 A 21 261 4 .301 .354 .428 .360 123 6.90% 13.00% .337 .127
Dubon 17 A+ 21 218 1 .250 .321 .281 .291 81 8.30% 15.60% .296 .031
Hernandez 18 AA 22 294 5 .326 .349 .482 .375 139 3.10% 16.70% .382 .156
Hernandez 18 AAA 22 135 3 .231 .252 .369 .283 74 3.00% 26.70% .293 .138
Longhi 19 A 20 443 6 .278 .339 .393 .340 110 7.40% 18.50% .334 .115
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 27, 2015 8:44:05 GMT -5
Shouldn't Raudes at least be ranked? Maybe fairly highly? His stats are impressive.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2015 8:46:11 GMT -5
Love this. Can't wait to see what everyone thinks when the rankings come out.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 27, 2015 9:14:00 GMT -5
Love this. Can't wait to see what everyone thinks when the rankings come out. Well now this just makes me think I'm completely wrong and there is a little bit more shake up than I anticipated! |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2015 9:25:33 GMT -5
No, don't read into it. I just like the fact that there's anticipatory discussion and can't wait to see all the reasons we're stupid (kidding) is all.
There are changes in the top 10, but I don't think that's a surprise to anyone paying attention.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 27, 2015 11:28:22 GMT -5
I like that we don't have a consensus #1, and I think there is at least an argument for 4-5 depending on how froggy you're feeling. It's annoying in the national rankings when someone claims #1 unanimously and no one dares challenge that ranking. Profar holding off Tavares and Bundy, and Buxton holding off Bryant and Correa are two recent examples.
My crack
Moncada - Love the tools, I might be the only one who thinks he is an (plus) outfielder though.
Devers
Benintendi - Could be #1 based on how advanced he is. Fast mover, high floor, surprising ceiling
Espinoza - Could be overhyped at this point IMO, but 3 potential plus pitches puts him in top tier
Owens - great work this year. Very encouraged by him
Guerra - love the profile
Margot - I'm lower on him than most due to personal bias
Johnson
Kopech - I think off field work could be more beneficial to young guys, more so with Kopech's profile
Chavis - good power,and bat speed, could jump up the list with some mechanical tweaks
Shaw - Hell of a year, great story. Love him as a bench bat next year, and maybe much more
Travis - lack of power limits ceiling. Would be scary good with power
Light - please help the bullpen next year
Marrero - don't get to see him and don't see many reports. If he is a plus SS, he is valuable
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 27, 2015 11:35:57 GMT -5
The current Top 8, in whatever order you have it, is just lovely. I'd have Guerra eighth but could easily have him in the top 60 in all of baseball. Kopech is a forgotten man with the suspension, but he deserves being in this tier. Suspension might be a blessing in disguise. I don't have any experience in baseball development, but it always struck me as weird that young pitchers, particularly ones with notable control/mechanical problems, didn't spend more time out of games and working on the side. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2015 11:50:22 GMT -5
I like that we don't have a consensus #1 I'll add that for the brass, the only unanimous rankings were the #3 and #9 spots. Perhaps that telegraphs some things. Three voters agreed on prospects 1, 2, 8, and 10. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 27, 2015 11:55:42 GMT -5
I like that we don't have a consensus #1 I'll add that for the brass, the only unanimous rankings were the #3 and #9 spots. Perhaps that telegraphs some things. Three voters agreed on prospects 1, 2, 8, and 10. The suspense.. |
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Post by pokeefe363 on Aug 27, 2015 12:13:22 GMT -5
Love the system, but there are a few guys who I see as overrated:
Margot: Very low OBP compared to AVG. His profile screams slap hitting CF and a 2nd division starter.
Guerra: Is the power for real? If it isn't, he's a utility player. That K rate also can't be sustained as he moves up. Seems like a good guy to move this offseason.
Kopech: Mechanics are still very violent. He'd need everything to go right to be a front-line starter and his more likely outcome is the bullpen.
Chavis: That K rate and contact rate are highly troublesome. Combine that with fringe average speed and an uncertain position stick and he's more likely to bust than be good.
All 4 could probably be packaged to get something substantial and all 4 are replaceable with the way the system is currently configured. I think Shaw and Travis are getting underrated a bit. Don't think Chavis should be above either of them.
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Espinoza {is} making another jump in the September 1 rankings update).I've got it Moncada, Espinoza (!), Benintendi (!), Devers, Owens, Margot, Guerra, Johnson, but 2 through 4 are subject to change (Benny's the tough guy to rank). Very curious as to what the site will say.Personally, I'd have something like Moncada, Benintendi, Espinoza, Guerra, Owens, Devers, Margot, Johnson, Kopech, Chavis. Beyond that, Trey Ball would probably be out of my top 30, and I'd move Logan Allen into the top 20. What do you guys think?
