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Margot vs. Benintendi debate
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Post by Guidas on Aug 30, 2015 11:06:11 GMT -5
Don't forget Devers and Benintendi Also don't forget that Magot is younger than Benintendi and playing at a much higher level.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Aug 30, 2015 19:00:13 GMT -5
Don't forget Devers and Benintendi Also don't forget that Magot is younger than Benintendi and playing at a much higher level. That's a little misleading though. Benintendi could likely hold his own at AA right now and scouting profile wise and would likely be a lower risk with his higher OBP+SLG profile. Margot could become a solid slap hitting CF with plus speed, but I'd be surprised if he ended up better than Benny.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 30, 2015 20:18:44 GMT -5
Margot isn't a slap hitter
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Post by pokeefe363 on Aug 30, 2015 23:04:32 GMT -5
Margot isn't a slap hitter 24 2B, 8 3B, 4 HR in over 100 games this year with an OBP under .320. If he wasn't as young as he was, we would be nowhere near as high on him. I think his age advancement is significantly masking his plate discipline issues, which limit his upside as he doesn't have the power to balance it out. I'm not saying he won't be a decent CF in the majors, but he's essentially a lesser version of Mookie Betts. Benintendi will likely have more value as he projects to have more power to be able to stick in a corner spot. Back to Espinoza: The only concern with him is injury. I know some on here have worried about the stress he puts on his elbow. It will be interesting to see how he progresses.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2015 11:51:32 GMT -5
Also don't forget that Magot is younger than Benintendi and playing at a much higher level. T hat's a little misleading though. Benintendi could likely hold his own at AA right now and scouting profile wise and would likely be a lower risk with his higher OBP+SLG profile. Margot could become a solid slap hitting CF with plus speed, but I'd be surprised if he ended up better than Benny. Why is that misleading? And what is the basis of "likely could hold his own in AA"? There are big jumps in levels. The pitching is very good in AA, much better than in Low A. And, btw, Margot excelled in low A at 19. He may be a different kind of hitter, but it does not take away the fact that Margot has excelled at every level, almost always as one of the youngest players in the league. You may have an argument this time next year. However, by then Margot will "likely" be in AAA. At age 21. which is how old Benintendi is now, in Low A.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2015 11:54:56 GMT -5
Margot isn't a slap hitter 24 2B, 8 3B, 4 HR in over 100 games this year with an OBP under .320. If he wasn't as young as he was, we would be nowhere near as high on him. I think his age advancement is significantly masking his plate discipline issues, which limit his upside as he doesn't have the power to balance it out. I'm not saying he won't be a decent CF in the majors, but he's essentially a lesser version of Mookie Betts. Benintendi will likely have more value as he projects to have more power to be able to stick in a corner spot. Back to Espinoza: The only concern with him is injury. I know some on here have worried about the stress he puts on his elbow. It will be interesting to see how he progresses. And projections always play out because… Let's see how he does when he has to face legit 3/4 pitch mixes and filthy breaking stuff almost every night. And that's just AA.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 31, 2015 12:14:57 GMT -5
We'll be serving up dishes of crow within a few months if people keep it up. Guidas has a real point. There's a big difference between A and AA ball. By then the wannabees have been left behind and the real talent has bubbled up. Lots of players jump from AA to the majors. That's a rare occurrence for A+, even rarer for A. We should give Margot a chance to see what he can do with a few months under his belt. We have no idea what they have him working on, and they have a plan for all their players. It is a learning experience, especially when you're 20.
As for Benintendi, he's shown well at Greenville. But that's exactly what we'd expect for a college player at that level. Same with Moncada given his history in the Serie Nacional in Cuba. They've yet to meet up with the bulk of the prize pitching prospects they'll be seeing two levels up. The enthusiasm is understandable. It needs to be tempered a bit.
Getting back to the thread, Espinoza is a big talent, but there's a lot that can happen over the next few years. I'm eager to see what he can do going forward, but he's so far away I can barely make him out in the distance.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Aug 31, 2015 12:46:00 GMT -5
T hat's a little misleading though. Benintendi could likely hold his own at AA right now and scouting profile wise and would likely be a lower risk with his higher OBP+SLG profile. Margot could become a solid slap hitting CF with plus speed, but I'd be surprised if he ended up better than Benny. Why is that misleading? And what is the basis of "likely could hold his own in AA"? There are big jumps in levels. The pitching is very good in AA, much better than in Low A. And, btw, Margot excelled in low A at 19. He may be a different kind of hitter, but it does not take away the fact that Margot has excelled at every level, almost always as one of the youngest players in the league. You may have an argument this time next year. However, by then Margot will "likely" be in AAA. At age 21. which is how old Benintendi is now, in Low A. Here's my point: Benintendi isn't being given the shot to play AA right now. You can't hold that against him. Every indication based on college, minor league numbers, and scouting is that he will have more power than Margot. He will also have a higher OBP due to his superior BB/K rate than almost anyone in baseball. Margot is being given a huge advantage because of his age, but a lot of that is a product of the fact that he began in the system at such a young age. INT and HS guys are always more age advanced than college guys because they got an earlier start on their professional careers. Margot is a year younger than Benintendi, but Benintendi has outhit Margot pretty dramatically and has a pedigree to go along with it. I also would dispute Margot has excelled at every level. 2013 and 2015 he was merely average with obvious red flags in regards to his power and eye discipline. I'm not wishing against the guy, but I think he's a helium prospect who even if he reached his full potential still will be the 3rd best CF on the Red Sox at best. He's the ideal guy to trade away this offseason.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 31, 2015 12:50:36 GMT -5
Why is that misleading? And what is the basis of "likely could hold his own in AA"? There are big jumps in levels. The pitching is very good in AA, much better than in Low A. And, btw, Margot excelled in low A at 19. He may be a different kind of hitter, but it does not take away the fact that Margot has excelled at every level, almost always as one of the youngest players in the league. You may have an argument this time next year. However, by then Margot will "likely" be in AAA. At age 21. which is how old Benintendi is now, in Low A. Here's my point: Benintendi isn't being given the shot to play AA right now. You can't hold that against him. Every indication based on college, minor league numbers, and scouting is that he will have more power than Margot. He will also have a higher OBP due to his superior BB/K rate than almost anyone in baseball. Margot is being given a huge advantage because of his age, but a lot of that is a product of the fact that he began in the system at such a young age. INT and HS guys are always more age advanced than college guys because they got an earlier start on their professional careers. Margot is a year younger than Benintendi, but Benintendi has outhit Margot pretty dramatically and has a pedigree to go along with it. I also would dispute Margot has excelled at every level. 2013 and 2015 he was merely average with obvious red flags in regards to his power and eye discipline. I'm not wishing against the guy, but I think he's a helium prospect who even if he reached his full potential still will be the 3rd best CF on the Red Sox at best. He's the ideal guy to trade away this offseason. And what kind of numbers would Margot put up in Greenville right now? You can't hold it against him that he's playing 2 levels above Benintendi even though he's younger.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Aug 31, 2015 13:02:36 GMT -5
Here's my point: Benintendi isn't being given the shot to play AA right now. You can't hold that against him. Every indication based on college, minor league numbers, and scouting is that he will have more power than Margot. He will also have a higher OBP due to his superior BB/K rate than almost anyone in baseball. Margot is being given a huge advantage because of his age, but a lot of that is a product of the fact that he began in the system at such a young age. INT and HS guys are always more age advanced than college guys because they got an earlier start on their professional careers. Margot is a year younger than Benintendi, but Benintendi has outhit Margot pretty dramatically and has a pedigree to go along with it. I also would dispute Margot has excelled at every level. 2013 and 2015 he was merely average with obvious red flags in regards to his power and eye discipline. I'm not wishing against the guy, but I think he's a helium prospect who even if he reached his full potential still will be the 3rd best CF on the Red Sox at best. He's the ideal guy to trade away this offseason. And what kind of numbers would Margot put up in Greenville right now? You can't hold it against him that he's playing 2 levels above Benintendi even though he's younger. This is true. My concern when looking at the age advancement is we're talking about a 2.5 month difference in age, year difference in development that's almost entirely due to the fact Margot started in the system at a younger age.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2015 13:14:43 GMT -5
And what kind of numbers would Margot put up in Greenville right now? You can't hold it against him that he's playing 2 levels above Benintendi even though he's younger. This is true. My concern when looking at the age advancement is we're talking about a 2.5 month difference in age, year difference in development that's almost entirely due to the fact Margot started in the system at a younger age. No, it's not. It's that Margot - unlike the vast bulk of his peers - has excelled at every level and put himself where he is. You are assuming Benintendi would have done exactly the same but there is no evidence to support this. Prospect development does not work this way. The prospect highway is paved with guys who excelled in low A and couldn't get to AAA never mind couldn't get to the pros. You cannot assume excellence at one level will equal excellence at another. If you need a more academic example see any guy referred to as a "AAAA player."
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 31, 2015 13:24:35 GMT -5
This is true. My concern when looking at the age advancement is we're talking about a 2.5 month difference in age, year difference in development that's almost entirely due to the fact Margot started in the system at a younger age. No, it's not. It's that Margot - unlike the vast bulk of his peers - has excelled at every level and put himself where he is. You are assuming Benintendi would have done exactly the same but there is no evidence to support this. Prospect development does not work this way. The prospect highway is paved with guys who excelled in low A and couldn't get to AAA never mind couldn't get to the pros. You cannot assume excellence at one level will equal excellence at another. If you need a more academic example see any guy referred to as a "AAAA player." Cecchini is a very recent example. He looked like Wade Boggs in Salem.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2015 14:09:34 GMT -5
Arbitrary endpoint warning, but Margot's numbers, when he was healthy, in Salem compare well to what Benintendi is doing in Greenville.
4/9-4/26: 15 G, .362/.391/.586, 1 HR, 6 SB 4/28-5/9: 12 G, .116/.204/.116, 0 HR, 5 SB DL stint 5/30-6/20: 19 G, .313/.337/.463, 2 HR, 9 SB (and this was going up - line was .355/.385/.548 if you take out his first four games back).
Benintendi in Greenville: 11 G, .341/.423/.568, 3 HR, 2 SB.
Obvious major difference is in plate approach, but I would only give Benintendi a slight edge in power until we see him do it for longer, whereas Margot has a clear edge in defense and speed.
Frankly, I think this one can be argued either way. I'd take Margot but wouldn't begrudge anyone who would take Benintendi.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 31, 2015 15:01:38 GMT -5
I don't think it's all that close. Margot has the tools but how many times have we seen toolsy guys never make the plate discipline adjustment and Beni's plate discipline and overall approach are as good as anyone coming out of college baseball for a while. And Beni's power numbers have been far superior so far.
The bottom line is who is more likely to be a mlb regular. My bet is definitely Benintendi. He already has a much more sophisticated batting approach.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 31, 2015 15:05:18 GMT -5
I don't think it's all that close. Margot has the tools but how many times have we seen toolsy guys never make the plate discipline adjustment and Beni's plate discipline and overall approach are as good as anyone coming out of college baseball for a while. And Beni's power numbers have been far superior so far. The bottom line is who is more likely to be a mlb regular. My bet is definitely Benintendi. He already has a much more sophisticated batting approach. And you also can't ignore Margot's edge in defense and speed. Benintendi is no slouch there, but he doesn't have 65's.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 31, 2015 15:53:49 GMT -5
Margot is a stud. We're being spoiled brats and fixating on stats. He's a consensus top 40 and in many eyes top 30 prospect. I don't think his triple slash so far in AA changes that, and his speed/defense give him a high floor.
I think he gets traded this offseason, but I hope we value Margot as high as we should/other teams will. For most orgs he would be the guy on the farm that everyone is talking about.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 31, 2015 15:54:05 GMT -5
Margot has a 673 OPS in 244 plate appearances in AA. I wouldn't hang my hat on him becoming an above average MLB player. This thread will be laughable by the end of next year.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 31, 2015 16:00:53 GMT -5
Margot has a 673 OPS in 244 plate appearances in AA. I wouldn't hang my hat on him becoming an above average MLB player. This thread will be laughable by the end of next year. And JBJ OPSed .531 in the majors in 2014. A 20 year old not raking in AA immediately is zero cause for concern. He's 20....... He can repeat the level next year and stay all year in AAA the following year and still make his debut at age 23.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 31, 2015 16:14:39 GMT -5
Margot has a 673 OPS in 244 plate appearances in AA. I wouldn't hang my hat on him becoming an above average MLB player. This thread will be laughable by the end of next year. So if he stayed in Salem and was putting up an .850 OPS would you say the same? Manny Machado put up a 97 wRC+ as a 19 year old in A+ ball. Another toolsy guy who is a plus defender. That worked out ok for him I would say.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 31, 2015 16:42:01 GMT -5
Margot's OPS was 741 in Salem this year. 781 if we add last year's numbers. 803 in Greenville last year. Where are you pulling this 850 figure from? This whole he's younger than Benintendi comment is laughable. And, not worth repeating. Margot is 88 days younger than Benny. They're the same age.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 31, 2015 16:43:04 GMT -5
Margot's OPS was 741 in Salem this year. 781 if we add last year's numbers. 803 in Greenville last year. Where are you pulling this 850 figure from? This whole he's younger than Benintendi comment is laughable. And, not worth repeating. Margot is 88 days younger than Benny. They're the same age. And yet Margot is 2 levels higher.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 31, 2015 16:48:33 GMT -5
Margot's OPS was 741 in Salem this year. 781 if we add last year's numbers. 803 in Greenville last year. Where are you pulling this 850 figure from? This whole he's younger than Benintendi comment is laughable. And, not worth repeating. Margot is 88 days younger than Benny. They're the same age. Why is age laughable? He's still age advanced. You can argue that Benintendi can be ranked higher than Margot, but they're both great prospects. You're being ignorant and weirdly arrogant for someone so off-base.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2015 16:51:26 GMT -5
And plays a premium position, CF.
Also, FWIW, in his mid-season Top 50, Keith Law said Margot was the Sox Prospect opposing scouts were most excited about.
I don't think anyone here is saying Benintendi cannot be a good AA player or better. But Margot is already and a Top 50 prospect in all of baseball, all at a younger age.
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Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 17:09:31 GMT -5
I am a bit of a doubter of Margot but not significantly yet. It has been my observation over a long period of time that the players who become major league stars usually hit well at every level regardless of their ages. However, one of the things that has changed is that we're getting younger players with more experience, the Latin American players who have been playing all year round since they could hold a bat. That also is happening here more and more. Today I watched a live stream of my 13-year old grand nephew playing 3B for a traveling team competing in a tournament in Cooperstown. He plays almost all year round now with indoor facilities they have in the Buffalo area. One of the players from his team was drafted this year in the 4th round by the Orioles.
Consequently, I have adjusted my belief a little, leaving room for these really young fellows to grow up some.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 31, 2015 17:11:26 GMT -5
Margot has been caught stealing a lot for a guy with 65 speed. His stolen base numbers are not any better than Cechinni's were at the same levels. There is no indication he will be a prolific base stealer in the majors.
It's an educated guess right, between them. We all have our biases just like politicians and economists. I like a lot of things about Margot, such as his contact rate and defensive ability, but I prefer players who have a high OBP / power profile who also have shown solid defense. Benintendi is more likely to succeed to me and worth more if he does. I prefer players who already can drive the ball a lot as a 21 year old while not striking out a lot. His bat speed is solid so I think it extends into higher levels. I prefer a proven track record over a long period of time, and my understanding was that Beni had an injury his freshman year which affected him some plus he hit the weights bigtime to help his pop and it appears to have worked this past year with 29 overall HR in relatively few AB. His high school performance was terrific, right, so he has a real solid long term track record. He looks and acts like a baseball rat to me, but then again I liked Cechinni a lot also. So what do I know.
I could be way off as none of us really know for sure but I would trade Margot for Beni right now in a heartbeat.
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