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Margot vs. Benintendi debate
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Post by caseytins on Sept 1, 2015 10:34:01 GMT -5
If I have to pick one, I'll take Benintendi. I believe more in his bat and power potential. Given our current roster (specifically our outfield), I would rather pick who I believe has the higher offensive upside.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 1, 2015 10:42:13 GMT -5
I wouldn't even guess at a preference right now. For me, Margot being younger at a significantly greater competition level is a huge issue in trying to claim that Benintendi is the more desirable of the two at this point. The real issue is that if BBC really pans out, where do these guys play in a couple of years? My bet is that one of the 3 of BBC doesn't pan out, so there's room for somebody in the 2017/2018 OF.
But we'll see.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Sept 1, 2015 10:47:59 GMT -5
If Margot isn't stealing bases at a good percentage now even counting his time in DSL, low A etc...then I think it's unlikely he develops that ability to be a major base stealing threat in the majors. My point was that maybe that aspect of his game has been overated here. Contrasting Cechinni was to make the point that Margot has not put up better base stealing numbers overall than even Cechinni. I think Margot is a solid prospect but I have him around # 7 on my list, even behind Johnson and Owens, although in hindsight probably that was an error. I do things quickly sometimes as I'm a very busy person. Except for the past couple days I haven't been here for a month or so. I wish I had time to research every detail. A lot of time I go from memory, such as with Cechinni's base stealing numbers but overall I think what I said was relevant and on target. I think Margot will never be a great base stealer. Probably 15-25 per year if he's a starter and unless his percentage improves he shouldn't even run that much. As Chris alluded to earlier, you continue to almost entirely ignore the scouting reports and rely purely on SB/CS numbers from the low minors, which really undermines your argument. We know that Margot has plus-to-better speed, which portends well for his future basestealing success. Yes, his instincts/reads look like they need work, but that's something a prospect can learn and improve on as he moves up on the system, and he's still young enough that that's highly possible, if not likely. At lower levels, and for the speed and defense tools, I put far, far more weight on the scouting reports than I do the SB/CS numbers (or errors committed/fielding percentage, which I've seen you cite in the past), as I find the scouting reports to be far more predictive of future success for players that far from the majors. It would be interesting to track both top base stealers and guys who were projected as such but didn't do so in the majors to see if this is true. For example, I have my doubts whenever someone says a prospect can "learn" plate discipline and they're in AA already. The only player recently I can remember learning plate discipline later on is Manny Machado. He was in the majors at age 19 though and has now shown the power to force pitchers to throw more balls. Can't remember this working for a guy who has either a low contact rate or low power. I remember hearing about how WMB would learn it, but that never happened. I wonder if stealing bases could be the same way. I don't like the Cecchini analogy either, but some guys are fast yet don't have the instinct to steal bases well. I would expect this would get harder as one moves up and the catchers become better defensively.
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Post by jmei on Sept 1, 2015 11:03:42 GMT -5
I agree that plate discipline is tough to project significant improvements in, but I would think basestealing skills are much easier to pick up. Reading pickoff moves seems much more teachable than picking up the spin on a curveball, and I can't think of too many fast but low efficiency basestealers in the majors.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 1, 2015 11:18:13 GMT -5
Does Margot really have a problem with plate discipline? Or does he just make contact at a higher rate and thus doesn't get to the 4 balls as often? His K/BB rates have been good, only quite low on both.
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Post by jmei on Sept 1, 2015 11:20:37 GMT -5
Does Margot really have a problem with plate discipline? Or does he just make contact at a higher rate and thus just doesn't get to the 4 balls as often? His K/BB rates have been good, just quite low on both. Scouting reports generally suggest he is over-aggressive and will swing at some bad pitches and is not the best at picking up spin.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 1, 2015 11:21:46 GMT -5
Does Margot really have a problem with plate discipline? Or does he just make contact at a higher rate and thus doesn't get to the 4 balls as often? His K/BB rates have been good, only quite low on both. K's are not plate discipline, they're contact rates. Also, they're largely irrelevant for major league quality hitters. The correlation between K% and wRC+ is near zero, while the correlation between BB% and wRC+ is much higher. K's are a little more important at the minors because some guys K so much they can't be a Major League hitter, but walks are much more important at both levels. BB% has a much higher correlation to major league success than either K/BB or K%. So yes, Margot has a plate discipline problem.
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Post by jmei on Sept 1, 2015 11:28:03 GMT -5
Does Margot really have a problem with plate discipline? Or does he just make contact at a higher rate and thus doesn't get to the 4 balls as often? His K/BB rates have been good, only quite low on both. K's are not plate discipline, they're contact rates. Also, they're largely irrelevant for major league quality hitters. The correlation between K% and wRC+ is near zero, while the correlation between BB% and wRC+ is much higher. K's are a little more important at the minors because some guys K so much they can't be a Major League hitter, but walks are much more important at both levels. BB% has a much higher correlation to major league success than either K/BB or K%. So yes, Margot has a plate discipline problem. The lack of correlation between strikeout rate and wRC+ is misleading due to selection bias. Guys who strike out too much without also hitting for power or being especially patient wash out of the league. All else equal, you want the prospect with the lower strikeout rates.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 1, 2015 11:31:48 GMT -5
Does Margot really have a problem with plate discipline? Or does he just make contact at a higher rate and thus doesn't get to the 4 balls as often? His K/BB rates have been good, only quite low on both. K's are not plate discipline, they're contact rates. Also, they're largely irrelevant for major league quality hitters. The correlation between K% and wRC+ is near zero, while the correlation between BB% and wRC+ is much higher. K's are a little more important at the minors because some guys K so much they can't be a Major League hitter, but walks are much more important at both levels. BB% has a much higher correlation to major league success than either K/BB or K%. So yes, Margot has a plate discipline problem. You can be a good hitter with a low walk rate if you have elite contact skills (and speed helps too). It's definitely not the norm though. You need elite something to make up for poor something else. Carl Crawford comes to mind (pre-Boston). Sandoval as well (pre-Boston).
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 1, 2015 11:32:12 GMT -5
Does Margot really have a problem with plate discipline? Or does he just make contact at a higher rate and thus doesn't get to the 4 balls as often? His K/BB rates have been good, only quite low on both. K's are not plate discipline, they're contact rates. Also, they're largely irrelevant for major league quality hitters. The correlation between K% and wRC+ is near zero, while the correlation between BB% and wRC+ is much higher. K's are a little more important at the minors because some guys K so much they can't be a Major League hitter, but walks are much more important at both levels. BB% has a much higher correlation to major league success than either K/BB or K%. So yes, Margot has a plate discipline problem. Not exactly the answer to my question ... jmei's more in line with what I'm asking. If the data was available, I'd be asking about his O-Swing% and how that affected his production. To me, "plate discipline" does not equal BB%. It's highly correlated, of course, but not the same thing. Plate discipline is about swinging at good pitches. If Margot just had an extremely low whiff rate, he maybe doesn't swing at bad pitches at a problem rate but makes contact at such a high rate that he doesn't get deep enough into a count to walk as often as most. But jmei relayed at least the impression that he's over-aggressive. This is the kind of thing that'll start showing up more as the pitching gets better, imo.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Sept 1, 2015 11:57:09 GMT -5
Margot's swing is very quick, which reminds me of Betts. He is really good at making contact. But his over aggressiveness and lack of power are big issues.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Sept 1, 2015 12:17:21 GMT -5
I agree that plate discipline is tough to project significant improvements in, but I would think basestealing skills are much easier to pick up. Reading pickoff moves seems much more teachable than picking up the spin on a curveball, and I can't think of too many fast but low efficiency basestealers in the majors. Dee Gordon, Starling Marte, and Jose Altuve are examples. Most teams will tell their guys to stop stealing unless it's the right moment though if their efficiency is that far out of whack. BB rate in the minors is something I think that's ignored far too much. Many players bust because as they move up the minors, their average drops and if their OBP is only 30 points above their average, their OBP drops to unusable levels. I see Margot with the floor of a backup speedy OF and the upside of a 3 WAR player for multiple years. I think Benintendi has a lower floor because he doesn't have the speed or defense to rely on like Margot, but a significantly higher ceiling.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 1, 2015 12:31:28 GMT -5
I wouldn't even guess at a preference right now. For me, Margot being younger at a significantly greater competition level is a huge issue in trying to claim that Benintendi is the more desirable of the two at this point. The real issue is that if BBC really pans out, where do these guys play in a couple of years? My bet is that one of the 3 of BBC doesn't pan out, so there's room for somebody in the 2017/2018 OF. But we'll see. If all three pan out (and I think they will), and Margot doesn't get traded this winter (I think he will be), and Benintendi moves quickly next year (I think he will, ending the season in AAA and possibly getting a cup of coffee in Sept), then Castillo will be traded. If he produces over a full season anything like he has to date (say, .280-.300/.340/.440 or so, with some steals and solid average defense), he'll be a relative steal given his current contract, with five-plus years of team control. If he does any better, he should net an excellent return. That $11 M or so per year saved over the first three years of Benintendi's MLB service time will probably go towards contract extensions for guys like Betts, JBJ, and Bogaerts, hopefully.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 1, 2015 13:10:48 GMT -5
K's are not plate discipline, they're contact rates. Also, they're largely irrelevant for major league quality hitters. The correlation between K% and wRC+ is near zero, while the correlation between BB% and wRC+ is much higher. K's are a little more important at the minors because some guys K so much they can't be a Major League hitter, but walks are much more important at both levels. BB% has a much higher correlation to major league success than either K/BB or K%. So yes, Margot has a plate discipline problem. You can be a good hitter with a low walk rate if you have elite contact skills (and speed helps too). It's definitely not the norm though. You need elite something to make up for poor something else. Carl Crawford comes to mind (pre-Boston). Sandoval as well (pre-Boston). Nomar was a guy who was relatively aggressive, with fairly low walk rates but elite (hard) contact skills. He managed to post .400 OBPs due to high BAs, largely due to consistently posting BABIPs in the .350 range. So, while he never really took many walks, his hard contact rate improved from his collegiate/minor league days.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 1, 2015 13:29:02 GMT -5
Margot's swing is very quick, which reminds me of Betts. He is really good at making contact. But his over aggressiveness and lack of power are big issues. Is he over aggressive, or is he having problems identifying pitches as they come out of the pitchers hand. I think he chases pitches because he is fooled. Once he figures that part out, he should be gold again.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 1, 2015 16:30:58 GMT -5
I don't ignore scouting reports but I definitely factor the achievement levels of each prospect into account as well, and probably give them more weight than many here. I've just seem way too many instances where group think comes into play with prospects. Keith Law or some analyst says "Man, that Vitek looks like a great young prospect" and at least some others start moving their heads up and down....and then the prospect absolutely tanks in Lowell. People, like many animals, generally follow a herd mentality.
No doubt a guy like Mookie can have some adjustment periods in Lowell and not put up great numbers but exactly what numbers are they putting up and I think about why or how that is happening and adjust accordingly but the numbers do mean a lot ( at least to me ) at every level and I've found are a better predictor than what apparently is conventional wisdom. We all respect the opinions of the people who see these players a lot but the whole group think process does happen some and we need to constantly compare the data to the visual analysis. Sometimes one respected scout or a development team of a organization trumps up a prospects value and we all buy into it to a degree. We need to trust but verify.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 1, 2015 17:33:54 GMT -5
In other words, none of us thought Cechinni would steal bases at higher levels but if Margot is stealing bases at a lower percentage than Cechinni by quite a margin, after 4 plus seasons in the minors, I don't think that boat is going to float in the majors. Margot has had plenty of time to develop the ability to steal bases and he would be stealing them at a much higher success rate by now if he is going to succeed in the majors.
I've never met Margot and have no idea what the problem is but the data sample is quite large now and we ignore it at our peril. I don't care if the scouts think their role is all important. The data means something, even at low levels. It should be considered along with all other factors of course.
I don't want to dump on Margot but maybe he just has good contact rates and doesn't strike out a lot because he swings early in the count and generally makes contact ala Sandoval. Maybe he's fast but doesn't have the 1st step explosiveness or whatever to give him great base stealing aptitude. Maybe he will never adapt well to off speed pitchers due to eyesight issues or whatever. An objective read of the data indicates some concern in related areas. He's never hit for a high average except for one instance of a small sample size ( if I remember correctly ).
Of course a lot of players, even great players, can have dips in performance and pull out of it over time or develop at different schedules and maybe that happens with Margot. He's still very young and has time.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,947
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Post by jimoh on Sept 1, 2015 17:58:40 GMT -5
Jacoby Ellsbury, despite being a college player taken in the first round , had in his first full season in the minors 41 steals and 17 caught stealing for a rate of 70%. Would you have recommended he stop trying?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 1, 2015 18:29:38 GMT -5
In other words, none of us thought Cechinni would steal bases at higher levels but if Margot is stealing bases at a lower percentage than Cechinni by quite a margin, after 4 plus seasons in the minors, I don't think that boat is going to float in the majors. Margot has had plenty of time to develop the ability to steal bases and he would be stealing them at a much higher success rate by now if he is going to succeed in the majors. I've never met Margot and have no idea what the problem is but the data sample is quite large now and we ignore it at our peril. I don't care if the scouts think their role is all important. The data means something, even at low levels. It should be considered along with all other factors of course. I don't want to dump on Margot but maybe he just has good contact rates and doesn't strike out a lot because he swings early in the count and generally makes contact ala Sandoval. Maybe he's fast but doesn't have the 1st step explosiveness or whatever to give him great base stealing aptitude. Maybe he will never adapt well to off speed pitchers due to eyesight issues or whatever. An objective read of the data indicates some concern in related areas. He's never hit for a high average except for one instance of a small sample size ( if I remember correctly ). Of course a lot of players, even great players, can have dips in performance and pull out of it over time or develop at different schedules and maybe that happens with Margot. He's still very young and has time. There is a lot more to speed than stolen bases. There's also the higher BABIP associated with it.
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Post by caseytins on Sept 1, 2015 19:13:55 GMT -5
Whenever I hear the BBC euphemism, I laugh. Is it only me or do I watch too much porn?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 1, 2015 20:51:11 GMT -5
Jacoby Ellsbury, despite being a college player taken in the first round , had in his first full season in the minors 41 steals and 17 caught stealing for a rate of 70%. Would you have recommended he stop trying? I think the numbers were considerably better soon afterward. I don't know, maybe it takes Margot 4 times as long to learn. Maybe I should be more patient.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 1, 2015 21:02:11 GMT -5
Jacoby Ellsbury, despite being a college player taken in the first round , had in his first full season in the minors 41 steals and 17 caught stealing for a rate of 70%. Would you have recommended he stop trying? I think the numbers were considerably better soon afterward. I don't know, maybe it takes Margot 4 times as long to learn. Maybe I should be more patient. Ellsbury's first full season took him through AA at age 22, Margot is in AA at age 20 and actually having more success stealing there than Ellsbury did (16 for 22 as opposed to 16 for 24 in just 7 more games). Does Ellsbury's learning process not start until after college? Seems unfair. The kid is so age advanced, he has plenty of time to learn to steal more efficiently. I'd be much more concerned about his power this year.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 1, 2015 23:13:03 GMT -5
Margot has been a full time baseball player since 2012 and here are his stolen base numbers. If you guys think he is likely to be a significant stolen base guy you are certainly entitled to your opinion:
Margot minor league steals total: 129, CS 44 ( including 33 steals in the DSL )
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 1, 2015 23:18:10 GMT -5
I think this will soon be a moot point as Margot will be one of the guys DD will be looking at moving. We have 2 good young CF options with good enough speed. We need power going forward. So unless the FO has some major love for Morgot, I would bet the farm he will be on the outs.
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Post by SALNotes on Sept 2, 2015 0:36:27 GMT -5
Check out Nolan Arenado's minor league career www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=arenad001nol especially the walks and the K's he too struggled in double-A Margot and Arenado are very similar (not saying he'll hit for that kind of power) just that they were both aggressive early in the count and guys who made extremely good contact. I heard a interview with Arenado last season in which he was discussing how he needed to learn that it's OK to strikeout and to take pitches to work into better counts not just hacking at the 1st good pitch he sees. Margot has a lot of time to make the same adjustments and he's got the excellent contact ability, not a guy I'd be giving up on.
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