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Margot vs. Benintendi debate
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Post by jmei on Sept 2, 2015 6:10:25 GMT -5
I agree that plate discipline is tough to project significant improvements in, but I would think basestealing skills are much easier to pick up. Reading pickoff moves seems much more teachable than picking up the spin on a curveball, and I can't think of too many fast but low efficiency basestealers in the majors. Dee Gordon, Starling Marte, and Jose Altuve are examples. Most teams will tell their guys to stop stealing unless it's the right moment though if their efficiency is that far out of whack. None of those guys are all that inefficient, though. Their career steal success percentages all hover around or above the break-even point (Gordon is 76.6%, Marte is 73.2%, Altuve is 78%), and they've generally been more successful as time has gone on. Despite their middling efficiency, they've all accumulated significant net positive value on the basepaths, both through basestealing and through advancing the extra base. I really do think speed is one of those tools that translates most directly to on-field production in terms of added baserunning value.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 2, 2015 6:34:06 GMT -5
K's are not plate discipline, they're contact rates. Also, they're largely irrelevant for major league quality hitters. The correlation between K% and wRC+ is near zero, while the correlation between BB% and wRC+ is much higher. K's are a little more important at the minors because some guys K so much they can't be a Major League hitter, but walks are much more important at both levels. BB% has a much higher correlation to major league success than either K/BB or K%. So yes, Margot has a plate discipline problem. The lack of correlation between strikeout rate and wRC+ is misleading due to selection bias. Guys who strike out too much without also hitting for power or being especially patient wash out of the league. All else equal, you want the prospect with the lower strikeout rates. I thought I acknowledged that in my post, and yes, I agree, however, theyre nowhere near as important as walk rates for a prospect.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 2, 2015 6:38:39 GMT -5
Jacoby Ellsbury, despite being a college player taken in the first round , had in his first full season in the minors 41 steals and 17 caught stealing for a rate of 70%. Would you have recommended he stop trying? I think the numbers were considerably better soon afterward. I don't know, maybe it takes Margot 4 times as long to learn. Maybe I should be more patient. The kid just turned 20 a couple months and is incredibly age advanced. He'll learn to pick his spots better. He shouldn't be written off as a base stealer because he's 16/22 at age 20 playing at a level that should be way over his head (80% in High A to start the year) As for the Benintendi vs Margot debate, that's a tough one. I think I like Benintendi more because he is showing some nice in game power so soon after the adjustment to the wood. Can't really go wrong with either in my mind, though I expect Margot to probably be moved at some point.
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Post by jmei on Sept 2, 2015 6:44:21 GMT -5
The lack of correlation between strikeout rate and wRC+ is misleading due to selection bias. Guys who strike out too much without also hitting for power or being especially patient wash out of the league. All else equal, you want the prospect with the lower strikeout rates. I thought I acknowledged that in my post, and yes, I agree, however, theyre nowhere near as important as walk rates for a prospect. There is significant research which suggests that minor league strikeout rates are much more meaningful than walk rates, especially in the low minors: www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-forecasting-a-hitters-major-league-performance-with-minor-league-stats/
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 2, 2015 7:08:35 GMT -5
We don't really know with certainty if Benintendi's walk rate this year is because he's too good to play at his level and pitchers are afraid to throw strikes or if it's because he's too passive or because he sees and recognizes every pitch early enough to know whether it's a ball or a strike and has good contact to foul tough strikes off. We'll figure that out as he moves up and the pitching gets better. I was excited about Cecchini's walk rate in Salem and Portland. Prospect walk rates can disappear fast.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 2, 2015 8:36:19 GMT -5
I have Benintendi higher, but I also had him rated #3 in this draft (behind Rogers and Swanson, in that order). I think Margot is as good as all the people who like him do, I just am particularly high on Benintendi.
I have Margot around the ninth-best 25-and-under player in the organization, which is just amazing. This rules.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2015 8:41:41 GMT -5
Jacoby Ellsbury, despite being a college player taken in the first round , had in his first full season in the minors 41 steals and 17 caught stealing for a rate of 70%. Would you have recommended he stop trying? I think the numbers were considerably better soon afterward. I don't know, maybe it takes Margot 4 times as long to learn. Maybe I should be more patient. You got me wondering, so here's Ellsbury in the minors: SS, age 21: 23/26 (88%) A+, age 22: 25/34 (74%) AA, age 22-23: 24/33 (73%) AAA, age 23: 33/39 (85%) Also, Dee Gordon, who is now second in baseball to the pretty much incomparable Billy Hamilton: A, age 21: 73/98 (74%) AA, age 22: 53/74 (72%) AAA, age 23: 30/34 (88%) And hey, for the hell of it, Hamilton: Rk, age 18-19: 62/74 (84%) (111 games) A, age 20: 103/123 (84%) (135 games) A+, age 21: 104/125 (83%) (82 games) AA, age 21: 51/67 (76%) (50 games) AAA, age 22: 75/90 (83%) (123 games) Honestly, thought Hamilton's percentages would be higher. And just as a general thought, I'd just throw out there that combining a player's minor league statistics across levels and years of development is almost never going to be instructive.
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Post by 777southpaw777 on Sept 2, 2015 9:14:14 GMT -5
Seems all of them got a lot better in AAA as far as the SB success goes. All in the high 80s. Besides Hamilton, whos in a league all his own, had mid-upper 80s% all thenway through.
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Post by 0ap0 on Sept 2, 2015 9:57:02 GMT -5
What the heck--
Ricky Henderson:
A-, age 17 29/36 81% A, age 18 95/117 81% AA 19 81/109 74% AAA 20 44/53 83%
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 2, 2015 12:55:37 GMT -5
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 2, 2015 21:38:34 GMT -5
Margot's SB percentages:
DSL 76.7% Lowell 68% Salem 60% Greenville 75% Salem 80% Portland 72.7%
If a guy like Dee Gordon has similar percentages but steals twice as many bases I don't think that data is comparable. If a guy is attempting 70 or 80 SB in the minors as compared to 30-40 attempts those are completely different situations.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Sept 2, 2015 23:24:09 GMT -5
Margot's SB% doesn't worry me all that much. It's a part of his game that's reasonably valuable. I don't think anyone has suggested he's Billy Hamilton, just that it's a plus part of his game. The power and plate discipline are the bigger deal.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 9, 2015 14:24:54 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 9, 2015 15:04:58 GMT -5
...which he may just do. As I wrote in another thread, Dombrowski has options at this point. This is one position that the team definitely has covered.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Sept 9, 2015 17:29:20 GMT -5
That's pretty much expected considering his speed, defense, and quick bat. Although his numbers are not sexy he has some potent in his bat. If he learns the patience at the plate he will be an exciting and productive big league player. He will be 21 so he has enough time to figure out. But I would choose Beni over Margot. Beni has more power and getting on base skill.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Sept 9, 2015 19:31:39 GMT -5
That's pretty much expected considering his speed, defense, and quick bat. Although his numbers are not sexy he has some potent in his bat. If he learns the patience at the plate he will be an exciting and productive big league player. He will be 21 so he has enough time to figure out. But I would choose Beni over Margot. Beni has more power and getting on base skill. I feel like current Mookie Betts is a reasonable ceiling comp, so um, yes, I imagine he'd be coveted.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 9, 2015 20:06:29 GMT -5
That's pretty much expected considering his speed, defense, and quick bat. Although his numbers are not sexy he has some potent in his bat. If he learns the patience at the plate he will be an exciting and productive big league player. He will be 21 so he has enough time to figure out. But I would choose Beni over Margot. Beni has more power and getting on base skill. I feel like current Mookie Betts is a reasonable ceiling comp, so um, yes, I imagine he'd be coveted. Nope. Mookie Betts has a fantastic eye. He has an extremely low O-Swing% and apparently he was one of the best in the country at Theo's neuroscouting tests for reaction time when he was a prospect. Discipline is not a skill you learn. Betts has it, Margot doesn't. That's not to say there aren't good players without fantastic discipline, but its much harder to become a great player without great plate discipline and Margot will never be Mookie Betts. I think Kevin Pillar is a better comp.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 10, 2015 13:33:45 GMT -5
I feel like current Mookie Betts is a reasonable ceiling comp, so um, yes, I imagine he'd be coveted. Nope. Mookie Betts has a fantastic eye. He has an extremely low O-Swing% and apparently he was one of the best in the country at Theo's neuroscouting tests for reaction time when he was a prospect. Discipline is not a skill you learn. Betts has it, Margot doesn't. That's not to say there aren't good players without fantastic discipline, but its much harder to become a great player without great plate discipline and Margot will never be Mookie Betts. I think Kevin Pillar is a better comp. This. Mookie will learn to sit dead red more often and wait for his pitch, and his walk total will increase. Margot is much more aggressive out of the zone.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 10, 2015 13:56:55 GMT -5
He maybe agressive out of the zone but he's making a ton of contact (Only one season, his first in the US, he has a K rate over 15%). In his minor league career (1474 PA) so far he has 129 walks (8.7 BB%) versus 170 strikeouts (11.5 K%) while being pushed harder and harder on the age advancement scale...Some posters here are making him look like some kind of Keury De la Cruz type of hitter which he's not. In fact, his skillset reminds me a lot of a young Carl Crawford.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 10, 2015 14:12:19 GMT -5
Very good thread! I like both, and too bad we couldn't see Margot's numbers had he played another 30 days after "figuring it out." However, I'm in the group that sees Margot as closer to a duplicate of the others and Beni as an unusual high onbase/ power ceiling whom I prefer. Also, the age advancement points are well taken, but I"ve had a theory based on some observation, but would love some hard numbers- CALLING ERIC! Not only do a number of the highest batting average players ever bat lefthanded, but it seems to me that players who are lefties are more probable to still develope in the minors a year or two later than righties, and successfully make it to the show without washing out.. again a theory, need some numbers, and an explantion would be the inherent advantage in seeing breaking stuff better from righties- the common conquerer of minor leaguers.
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Post by raftsox on Sept 10, 2015 14:41:11 GMT -5
"Above average power" doesn't mean X amount of dingers, it means a good number of XBH. I don't like counting stats so I chose to look at rate stats like IsoP and except for the NYPL, Manny Margot has put some power numbers above the league average while being one of the youngest players. BTW as much as I love Margot, I have a slight preference for Benny Baseball What I wrote above was a reaction to the people who think that MM is overated and has too many holes in his game so we should trade him ASAP Even looking at his ISO numbers, you're looking at .138 2012, .081 2013, .175 2014, .128 2015. This is far below what Benintendi is putting up right now, far below what Mookie put up, and also below Bradley. Bradley and Mookie have both been mentioned as fringe average 15 HR guys coming up, so what does that make Margot? Like I said, I think he could be a solid 3 WAR player in his peak, which is clearly a valuable asset. That's not someone who's unmovable though and I think Benintendi's potential is definitely higher due to his power and plate discipline combination. With Margot's plate discipline and general lack of power, I feel he's still a considerable risk to only be a backup outfielder. Next year will say a lot about both guys though depending on how quickly they move. A minor quibble with terminology: Average power (50) is 12-15 HRs at the MLB level. Fringe average (45+) is 10-12. Below average (45) is 8-10. Slightly above average (50+) is 15-17. Above average (55) is 17-20 Plus (60) is 20 or more... Oftentimes, minor league power projectsions are based off scouting batting practice. Sometimes players never translate that power from batting practice into games based on a number of reasons such as swing plane or pitch recognition. So, taking stats from minor league seasons and using that to explain a power projection isn't very accurate. However, from what I remember is that Margot has fringe average power based on his line-drive swing; meaning that he will hit an above average number of doubles but fewer HRs. Mookie and Bradley were considered average power candidates. While Benintendi scouted as a 50/55 out of college based on reservations about his Sophmore year being a possible outlier power season. However that power now appears to be real, likely pushing his power up to 60/65 levels.
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Post by jmei on Sept 10, 2015 14:55:03 GMT -5
While Benintendi scouted as a 50/55 out of college based on reservations about his Sophmore year being a possible outlier power season. However that power now appears to be real, likely pushing his power up to 60/65 levels. I don't know that this is necessarily true. Kiley McDaniel, in his chat from earlier this week, had the following to say about Benintendi's power:
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 10, 2015 15:02:21 GMT -5
You guys are discounting age/level a little bit too much, I think. Margot is two levels above Benintendi, or, maybe more to the point, he was significantly younger when he was in the lower leagues than Benintendi was. Margot would've destroyed Lowell and Greenville this year, too, maybe put up similar power numbers as Benintendi (or maybe not!). And now he's up in AA and still 3 months younger than Benintendi is now; it's harder to square up balls and hit them hard in AA than it is in A-ball.
There's a reason that Margot is going to be ranked higher on essentially every end-of-year prospect list in the land. I'll bet you that he's ranked higher on BA, ESPN, and Fangraphs.
Now, it's entirely possible that Benintendi will be better in the end, mind you. I'm not saying necessarily that Margot will be a better MLB player. In the end, I love 'em both equally, like my parents always said about us kids. Just pointing out a flaw in the logic so far.
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Post by raftsox on Sept 10, 2015 15:05:13 GMT -5
While Benintendi scouted as a 50/55 out of college based on reservations about his Sophmore year being a possible outlier power season. However that power now appears to be real, likely pushing his power up to 60/65 levels. I don't know that this is necessarily true. Kiley McDaniel, in his chat from earlier this week, had the following to say about Benintendi's power: Fair enough. Good find. There are also anecdotal reports (SP.com podcasts!) that suggest this season in Lowell he was "bored and swinging for the fences every time".
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 10, 2015 16:50:21 GMT -5
He maybe agressive out of the zone but he's making a ton of contact (Only one season, his first in the US, he has a K rate over 15%). In his minor league career (1474 PA) so far he has 129 walks (8.7 BB%) versus 170 strikeouts (11.5 K%) while being pushed harder and harder on the age advancement scale...Some posters here are making him look like some kind of Keury De la Cruz type of hitter which he's not. In fact, his skillset reminds me a lot of a young Carl Crawford. So? That's contact rate, not discipline. Discipline is much more important.
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