SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Margot vs. Benintendi debate
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 10, 2015 21:04:43 GMT -5
He maybe agressive out of the zone but he's making a ton of contact (Only one season, his first in the US, he has a K rate over 15%). In his minor league career (1474 PA) so far he has 129 walks (8.7 BB%) versus 170 strikeouts (11.5 K%) while being pushed harder and harder on the age advancement scale...Some posters here are making him look like some kind of Keury De la Cruz type of hitter which he's not. In fact, his skillset reminds me a lot of a young Carl Crawford. So? That's contact rate, not discipline. Discipline is much more important. Elite contact rate can overcome below average discipline. I like the Crawford comp.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 11, 2015 6:41:56 GMT -5
I hate the Carl Crawford comp because comparing a prospect to one of the best players in the league (he was before Boston) is ridiculous
|
|
|
Post by wskeleton76 on Sept 11, 2015 7:49:14 GMT -5
Crawford has much better raw power.
|
|
|
Post by threeifbaerga on Sept 11, 2015 7:56:21 GMT -5
I was actually thinking old friend Shane Victorino as a decent comp for Margot. Am I off base?
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
|
Post by radiohix on Sept 11, 2015 14:44:01 GMT -5
I hate the Carl Crawford comp because comparing a prospect to one of the best players in the league (he was before Boston) is ridiculous Well, let's try to look at the core hitting stats at comparable levels and interestingly, they're very similar in their progression age advancement wise: Rookie Ball: CC played in the Appalachian League while MM played in the NYPL Player | AgeDif | BB% | K% | IsoP | Carl Crawford | -2.7 | 4.6% | 16.9% | .085 | Manuel Margot | -3.0 | 10.2% | 18.5% | .081 |
Low A Ball:Both of the players played in the South Athlantic League with MM making the Jump to Advanced A for the final games of the season but for the sake of the exercise, I'll stick with his A- stats : Player | AgeDif | BB% | K% | IsoP | Carl Crawford | -3.4 | 5.2% | 16.7% | .109 | Manuel Margot | -2.7 | 9.0% | 11.9% | .162 |
Double A Ball:Crawford completly skipped Advanced A, so let's compare their stats in AA Player | AgeDif | BB% | K% | IsoP | Carl Crawford | -5.3 | 6.2% | 15.4% | .078 | Manuel Margot | -4.4 | 7.4% | 12.8% | .147 |
So factoring the age advancement of CC (His CS% aren't that good either), their respective numbers look very similar to me which make the argument not that ridiculous after all.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 29, 2015 15:26:09 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel weighs in:
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 29, 2015 15:36:46 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel weighs in: Wow! I may be off my rocker, but IMO next season at this time it won't be close (in favor of Beni)
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 29, 2015 17:31:39 GMT -5
Crawford has much better raw power. Their trajectories are quite similar, though Margot has had many fewer strikeouts and more walks. From ages 17-20, Rookie league up to AA, Crawford in 1472 PAs hit 10 HRs. Margot, after 1474 PAs that have taken him at the same age on the same path, has 17 HRs. I think we're going to have to wait before declaring that the former has more home run power. During that portion of his minor league career, Crawford had 239 Ks, while Margot has 170 so far. As for walks, Crawford had 81 in that period, while Margot has 129. We may all be dramatically under-valuing the guy. Given that he's all of 20 years old, he's been doing very well.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,436
|
Post by nomar on Sept 29, 2015 19:39:57 GMT -5
Crawford has much better raw power. This isn't even true. Margot has a stronger frame. If it wasn't for his inability to get the ball off of the ground, he would be hitting for a good amount of power.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,947
|
Post by jimoh on Sept 29, 2015 19:51:11 GMT -5
oh, good, this thread has risen from the grave so people can make lots of original points
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Sept 30, 2015 12:19:02 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel weighs in: I'd like to have heard Kiley's breakdown of that...eg, based on age advancement for level, pro ball sample size, tools/reasonable ceilings, etc. I think a lot of us, myself included, tend to have some prospect fatigue with Margot, and forget that he was only 20 in AA. When he doesn't put up a .320/.380/.500 line it doesn't mean he's not still a terrific prospect. I actually like the Crawford comp a lot...very similar tool sets, with Margot probably having a little more power and better bat-to-ball skills at the same age. Maybe a bit less speed. MM with a better arm. If he continues his current development pace, Margot's an MLB regular at some point in his age 22 season, which is pretty advanced. Benintendi will have to blow through three levels next year to do that.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2015 12:38:18 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel weighs in: I'd like to have heard Kiley's breakdown of that...eg, based on age advancement for level, pro ball sample size, tools/reasonable ceilings, etc. I think a lot of us, myself included, tend to have some prospect fatigue with Margot, and forget that he was only 20 in AA. When he doesn't put up a .320/.380/.500 line it doesn't mean he's not still a terrific prospect. I actually like the Crawford comp a lot...very similar tool sets, with Margot probably having a little more power and better bat-to-ball skills at the same age. Maybe a bit less speed. MM with a better arm. If he continues his current development pace, Margot's an MLB regular at some point in his age 22 season, which is pretty advanced. Benintendi will have to blow through three levels next year to do that. Kiley always seems to be cautious with prospects further away. We have more info on Margot so he gets the tiebreaker. I wonder if he has seen Benintendi play yet because he's also cautious on guys he hasn't seen. That's pretty much where I am too. Margot "wins" until we have more info.
|
|
|
Post by myleskennefick on Sept 30, 2015 13:14:19 GMT -5
From a scout at Baseball Prospectus on September 9-- @prospectmark: Chris Hatfield Hard to find one person I trust that would take Benintendi over Margot at this point. I've seen both, and I sure wouldn't.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2015 13:51:41 GMT -5
From a scout at Baseball Prospectus on September 9-- @prospectmark: Chris Hatfield Hard to find one person I trust that would take Benintendi over Margot at this point. I've seen both, and I sure wouldn't. That answers the question of whether Chris trusts lavarnwayguy. Or maybe @prospectmark, hard to tell.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 30, 2015 14:15:34 GMT -5
Not sure what this has to do with lavarnwayguy. Anyway, Mark was responding to me pointing out the prospect fatigue with Margot and relative hype for Benintendi, and a subsequent attempt at a discussion with a guy I later blocked who thought it was insane that anyone would rank Margot higher than Benintendi right now.
Like I said then, before, and since, I sincerely doubt anyone worth listening to in the baseball media who does a ranking will have Benintendi higher than Margot this offseason.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Sept 30, 2015 15:35:06 GMT -5
Not sure what this has to do with lavarnwayguy. Anyway, Mark was responding to me pointing out the prospect fatigue with Margot and relative hype for Benintendi, and a subsequent attempt at a discussion with a guy I later blocked who thought it was insane that anyone would rank Margot higher than Benintendi right now. Like I said then, before, and since, I sincerely doubt anyone worth listening to in the baseball media who does a ranking will have Benintendi higher than Margot this offseason. Which makes sense given Margot's youth, age advancement, and track record of not just success, but steady improvement. Things very well might change by late 2016, but as jimed said, more data are needed.
|
|
|
Post by pokeefe363 on Sept 30, 2015 20:03:47 GMT -5
I hate the Carl Crawford comp because comparing a prospect to one of the best players in the league (he was before Boston) is ridiculous Well, let's try to look at the core hitting stats at comparable levels and interestingly, they're very similar in their progression age advancement wise: Rookie Ball: CC played in the Appalachian League while MM played in the NYPL Player | AgeDif | BB% | K% | IsoP | Carl Crawford | -2.7 | 4.6% | 16.9% | .085 | Manuel Margot | -3.0 | 10.2% | 18.5% | .081 |
Low A Ball:Both of the players played in the South Athlantic League with MM making the Jump to Advanced A for the final games of the season but for the sake of the exercise, I'll stick with his A- stats : Player | AgeDif | BB% | K% | IsoP | Carl Crawford | -3.4 | 5.2% | 16.7% | .109 | Manuel Margot | -2.7 | 9.0% | 11.9% | .162 |
Double A Ball:Crawford completly skipped Advanced A, so let's compare their stats in AA Player | AgeDif | BB% | K% | IsoP | Carl Crawford | -5.3 | 6.2% | 15.4% | .078 | Manuel Margot | -4.4 | 7.4% | 12.8% | .147 |
So factoring the age advancement of CC (His CS% aren't that good either), their respective numbers look very similar to me which make the argument not that ridiculous after all. There's one thing worth noting here. Crawford's BB % progressively improved while Margot's has gotten significantly worse as he's gone up the ladder. I don't mind the relative lack of power as he's young, but the walk rate is why I am highly skeptical of Margot.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 30, 2015 21:31:55 GMT -5
I don't see why it's near universal in favor of Margot. Benintendi was fantastic this college season and great in his first year in the minors. 31 HR this year people. Compare that pop to Margot's, and OBP and K/walk ...etc. Benintendi's wRC+ in Lowell was 175 and 183 in Greenville! What does he have to do to get our attention? Clearly the top position player in college last year. At least an average fielder who can actually stick in CF.
It's too early to tell with either but I would absolutely bank on Benintendi making it as a solid mlb regular compared to Margot. Put me down as the Rodney Dangerfield of the forum...until next year when Benintendi is a top 50 prospect.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2015 6:29:22 GMT -5
I don't see why it's near universal in favor of Margot. Benintendi was fantastic this college season and great in his first year in the minors. 31 HR this year people. Compare that pop to Margot's, and OBP and K/walk ...etc. Benintendi's wRC+ in Lowell was 175 and 183 in Greenville! What does he have to do to get our attention? Clearly the top position player in college last year. At least an average fielder who can actually stick in CF. It's too early to tell with either but I would absolutely bank on Benintendi making it as a solid mlb regular compared to Margot. Put me down as the Rodney Dangerfield of the forum...until next year when Benintendi is a top 50 prospect. Why do you think he doesn't have our attention? All he needs to do is get to Portland or Pawtucket and do better than Margot at a younger age. Well, that's probably not happening, so he has to be a lot better.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 1, 2015 6:57:35 GMT -5
I don't see why it's near universal in favor of Margot. Benintendi was fantastic this college season and great in his first year in the minors. 31 HR this year people. Compare that pop to Margot's, and OBP and K/walk ...etc. Benintendi's wRC+ in Lowell was 175 and 183 in Greenville! What does he have to do to get our attention? Clearly the top position player in college last year. At least an average fielder who can actually stick in CF. It's too early to tell with either but I would absolutely bank on Benintendi making it as a solid mlb regular compared to Margot. Put me down as the Rodney Dangerfield of the forum...until next year when Benintendi is a top 50 prospect. Straw men galore! Benintendi has plenty of attention, and I think everyone here is excited by his season. Here, proof: Yay, Benny Baseball!! Woo-hoo!! I'm so excited about Andrew Benintendi!!!!! But, I'm also excited about Manuel Margot. Margot is the same age as Benintendi, and if he were in Lowell and Greenville this year, he would've *destroyed* those leagues. Right now, basically through no fault of Benintendi, Margot is ahead of him. Doesn't mean he's going to stay ahead of him. Doesn't even mean if Benintendi passes him next year that it was wrong to rank Margot ahead of Benintendi this year. It's just the reality that Margot has proven success at a higher level than Benintendi right now, and he scouts really, really well even beyond his production.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 1, 2015 9:42:27 GMT -5
Margot is the better prospect. He's younger, more advanced, has a better track record of performance, and probably has better physical tools unless Beni turns out to be an elite hit tool guy. The only reason this is a debate at all is because Beni has put up gaudy numbers more recently. Compare the discussion of Margot now to when he was on his no-strikeout streak earlier in the year.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,947
|
Post by jimoh on Oct 1, 2015 9:52:54 GMT -5
I don't see why it's near universal in favor of Margot. [...] It's too early to tell with either but I would absolutely bank on Benintendi making it as a solid mlb regular compared to Margot. Put me down as the Rodney Dangerfield of the forum...until next year when Benintendi is a top 50 prospect. Isn't there some sort of software that can tell when new comments are made that have already been refuted? You think that next year "Benintendi is a top 50 prospect", and yet you now rate him higher than Margot, whom Keith Law ranks #15, mlb.com rates #25, Sickels has at #41 mid-season and says "Some sources have him much higher than this." Everybody agrees with you that Benintendi is wonderful, but pretty much everybody also agrees that Margot is a better prospect.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 1, 2015 17:13:19 GMT -5
Just because almost all of you think Margot is the better prospect doesn't mean you are right. We will see who is right. When I was rating Middlebrooks at #5 or 6 and the "braintrust" had him at #1 that didn't work out that great then did it. Was I "refuted" then? Almost all of you thought Lavarnway would never make it as a catcher but he's still catching in the majors and did fairly well this year for Atlanta. All I said was that he had a chance, more of a chance than you guys were giving him. No one knows what Margot will be next year. He could be on his war to "McCutchenville" or he could be also be a future Cameron Maybin instead. Margot may not even be a top 50 guy next year and Benintendi may be a top 10 guy for all we know.
I cited the wRC+ numbers of Benintendi above as above 175 on both of the teams he played on in the minors his first year plus he was the best hitter in college baseball last year. Margot has only made it above 134 once out of the 6 teams he has played for so far and that one was only 56 AB. Great, he's age advanced and that is super but we have no idea what he would really hit in Greenville right now. We can make an educated guess but it may well not be any better than the numbers Benintendi put up this year. I think not.
I have no problem with people disagreeing but don't assume you are right when you really are just guessing. We are all just making educated guesses.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,947
|
Post by jimoh on Oct 1, 2015 17:22:48 GMT -5
Just because almost all of you think Margot is the better prospect doesn't mean you are right. We will see who is right. When I was rating Middlebrooks at #5 or 6 and the "braintrust" had him at #1 that didn't work out that great then did it. Was I "refuted" then? Almost all of you thought Lavarnway would never make it as a catcher but he's still catching in the majors and did fairly well this year for Atlanta. All I said was that he had a chance, more of a chance than you guys were giving him. No one knows what Margot will be next year. He could be on his war to "McCutchenville" or he could be also be a future Cameron Maybin instead. Margot may not even be a top 50 guy next year and Benintendi may be a top 10 guy for all we know. I cited the wRC+ numbers of Benintendi above as above 175 on both of the teams he played on in the minors his first year plus he was the best hitter in college baseball last year. Margot has only made it above 134 once out of the 6 teams he has played for so far and that one was only 56 AB. Great, he's age advanced and that is super but we have no idea what he would really hit in Greenville right now. We can make an educated guess but it may well not be any better than the numbers Benintendi put up this year. I think not. I have no problem with people disagreeing but don't assume you are right when you really are just guessing. We are all just making educated guesses. You keep missing the point Ina big big way. Suppose I tell you that if you throw one die, it's more likely that an odd number will come up than that a six will come up. If you say "nobody knows what's going to happen! It might be a six! " you are certainly right. But it's more likely that an odd number will come up. If a six comes up it doesn't mean you were right. So too iti might turn out that Beni is better. But almost everyone agrees that the track record shows that Margot has a better chance
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Oct 1, 2015 18:57:02 GMT -5
I prefer Benintendi, but I think it is incredibly close and it is more than reasonable to prefer one to the other. What I don't like is over emphasizing one's weaknesses to show a preference for the other.
I also think it is common for fans that follow these prospects as closely as we do to have some recency bias. And I think many people who see this try to push back some, which is probably the right thing to do, but in this case I think Benintendi vs. Margot is a very legitimate debate.
And just like posters specifically tracking Red Sox prospects tend to lean towards some recency bias, I think national experts and writers tend not to pick up as quickly on real changes in prospect status that occur over a relatively small sample. Again, nothing at all wrong with this, but when you're dealing with such a wide swath of players and have less opportunity to monitor subtle changes in statistical trends, you tend to weigh track record more heavily.
|
|
|