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Margot vs. Benintendi debate
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 1, 2015 20:05:56 GMT -5
When I was rating Middlebrooks at #5 or 6 and the "braintrust" had him at #1 that didn't work out that great then did it. Was I "refuted" then? Almost all of you thought Lavarnway would never make it as a catcher but he's still catching in the majors and did fairly well this year for Atlanta. In 33 MLB games this season, Lavarnway hit .184/.276/.310 and was literally replacement level both on Fangraphs and BRef. In 83 MLB games, Middlebrooks hit .212/.241/.361 and was slightly below replacement level on both. Safe to say they both suck, no? Look, people are disagreeing with you. Nobody has said anything about you personally, yet you take the disagreement like you're being personally attacked. Relax man - you're not going to win an argument about who's the better prospect during the offseason. You're certainly not by asking when people are going to "take notice" of the guy who the posters in this forum just voted the system's Offensive Player of the Year (undeservedly, IMHO, although certainly not a travesty) AND Rookie of the Year. Just agree to disagree with people sometimes. It makes life a lot more pleasant.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 1, 2015 20:58:53 GMT -5
It's certainly easy to see how those with more of a scouting background would favor Margot heavily over Beni. The guy is oozing tools and has a longer track record of success. While Beni is undersized with very little track record. Traditional scouts have never seemed to be 'risk takers' in their assessments of players.
If you really want to make a strong argument - I'd lean on Mookie and how long it took for him to be recognized as a top prospect. After a full year of smashing the ball he only made it into the top ten for this site for instance due to people being cautious/skeptical and noting that an undersized player wouldn't develop much power (i believe he is surpassing even the most optimistic scout's projection in this area).
IF Beni crushes for the first 3 months of next season then I'm willing to bet he passes Margot with most scouts. But until then, Margot's size, speed, defense, higher level and longer track record will keep him on top.
I'm more excited about Beni because I believe his size, college experience and short track record are leaving him to be underrated. But Margot isn't the shiny new toy, so that probably affects the opinion of many of us who are constantly looking for new players and are optimistic. (always more fun to root for the underdog too)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2015 22:32:11 GMT -5
Just because almost all of you think Margot is the better prospect doesn't mean you are right. We will see who is right. When I was rating Middlebrooks at #5 or 6 and the "braintrust" had him at #1 that didn't work out that great then did it. Was I "refuted" then? Almost all of you thought Lavarnway would never make it as a catcher but he's still catching in the majors and did fairly well this year for Atlanta. All I said was that he had a chance, more of a chance than you guys were giving him. No one knows what Margot will be next year. He could be on his war to "McCutchenville" or he could be also be a future Cameron Maybin instead. Margot may not even be a top 50 guy next year and Benintendi may be a top 10 guy for all we know. I cited the wRC+ numbers of Benintendi above as above 175 on both of the teams he played on in the minors his first year plus he was the best hitter in college baseball last year. Margot has only made it above 134 once out of the 6 teams he has played for so far and that one was only 56 AB. Great, he's age advanced and that is super but we have no idea what he would really hit in Greenville right now. We can make an educated guess but it may well not be any better than the numbers Benintendi put up this year. I think not. I have no problem with people disagreeing but don't assume you are right when you really are just guessing. We are all just making educated guesses. I can totally see why the scouts drool over Margot's tools. He is younger than Benintendi and is a level above Benintendi. Margot held his own at age 20 in AA. He has power potential although he may never hit that many homers. He's got blazing speed, and can hit. He is tough to strike about but also might be tough to walk. Benintendi has to prove he can hit AA pitching, something Margot has done at a younger age. So I can totally see why Margot is a higher rated prospect than Benintendi. But if you ask me who I think will be better my answer is Benintendi. My gut, which has been wrong many more times than I care to admit, tells me that Benintendi will rip thru AA pitching next year and be in Pawtucket by season's end. I think Benintendi will hit 20 plus homers per year, hit for a good average, and take his walks so that his OPS, I believe, will exceed what Margot does. I think a comparison to a young Carl Crawford could be a good comparison for Margot. I can see him hitting for a good BA, but not walking a lot. I think his power will take time to develop although it might not be more than 15 homers per year, and he should steal 30 bases per year and play an excellent CF. Ultimately the Sox will wind up having to decide between JBJ and Margot as I anticipate that with Betts in one corner and Benintendi taking the other corner, the Sox will either wind up dealing one of Bradley or Margot in time. Unless there is an injury (whether it Betts, Benintendi, one of the CFs, or Pedroia, which could open up 2b for Betts and allow Benintendi, Bradley, and Margot to man the same OF), the Sox (like their catching situation) will wind up having to trade one of them. For now I love the fact that the Sox have to very good OF prospects coming up around the same time.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 2, 2015 7:03:46 GMT -5
It's interesting to me that Margot ended up with a higher OPS in Portland than he did in Salem. He had that stretch of playing hurt in Salem, so it's not apples-to-apples, but still ... I'll be watching for the BA top 20 in the Eastern League.
One question on Benintendi: did he show any opposite field power, or was it all pull power?
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Post by wskeleton76 on Oct 2, 2015 8:10:16 GMT -5
It's interesting to me that Margot ended up with a higher OPS in Portland than he did in Salem. He had that stretch of playing hurt in Salem, so it's not apples-to-apples, but still ... I'll be watching for the BA top 20 in the Eastern League. One question on Benintendi: did he show any opposite field power, or was it all pull power? I saw lots of his videos. I think his opp pop should be gap power. Not hr power but he could hit some Green Monster.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 2, 2015 9:27:08 GMT -5
It's interesting to me that Margot ended up with a higher OPS in Portland than he did in Salem. He had that stretch of playing hurt in Salem, so it's not apples-to-apples, but still ... I'll be watching for the BA top 20 in the Eastern League. One question on Benintendi: did he show any opposite field power, or was it all pull power? Looks pull-heavy. mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=643217&position=OFI'm too lazy to save it, upload it, and embed here. Sorry y'all. For what it's worth, how do they even pretend to have spots to put the dots? It's not like that information is available beyond general areas in the PBP ("home run to right-center field" for example).
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 2, 2015 9:33:27 GMT -5
It's interesting to me that Margot ended up with a higher OPS in Portland than he did in Salem. He had that stretch of playing hurt in Salem, so it's not apples-to-apples, but still ... I'll be watching for the BA top 20 in the Eastern League. One question on Benintendi: did he show any opposite field power, or was it all pull power? I saw lots of his videos. I think his opp pop should be gap power. Not hr power but he could hit some Green Monster. Makes sense to me ... here's a plausible downside scenario: he looks like he generates a lot of his power from great extension on his swing, hitting the ball out on front with strong pull power. As the pitching gets better, he'll need to let the ball get a little deeper to hit it consistently, and it will sap some of his power, making him more of a gap hitter. Still good, but not what we've seen so far. Now, I'm not saying this is what will happen. I've only seen the guy on video a few times, so what do I know? Just that it's plausible and an example of the kind of thing that gives experienced prospect-watchers a little caution when putting too much weight on lower-level results.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 2, 2015 9:55:28 GMT -5
Just because almost all of you think Margot is the better prospect doesn't mean you are right. We will see who is right. When I was rating Middlebrooks at #5 or 6 and the "braintrust" had him at #1 that didn't work out that great then did it. Was I "refuted" then? Almost all of you thought Lavarnway would never make it as a catcher but he's still catching in the majors and did fairly well this year for Atlanta. All I said was that he had a chance, more of a chance than you guys were giving him. No one knows what Margot will be next year. He could be on his war to "McCutchenville" or he could be also be a future Cameron Maybin instead. Margot may not even be a top 50 guy next year and Benintendi may be a top 10 guy for all we know. I cited the wRC+ numbers of Benintendi above as above 175 on both of the teams he played on in the minors his first year plus he was the best hitter in college baseball last year. Margot has only made it above 134 once out of the 6 teams he has played for so far and that one was only 56 AB. Great, he's age advanced and that is super but we have no idea what he would really hit in Greenville right now. We can make an educated guess but it may well not be any better than the numbers Benintendi put up this year. I think not. I have no problem with people disagreeing but don't assume you are right when you really are just guessing. We are all just making educated guesses. You keep missing the point Ina big big way. Suppose I tell you that if you throw one die, it's more likely that an odd number will come up than that a six will come up. If you say "nobody knows what's going to happen! It might be a six! " you are certainly right. But it's more likely that an odd number will come up. If a six comes up it doesn't mean you were right. So too iti might turn out that Beni is better. But almost everyone agrees that the track record shows that Margot has a better chance Determining the ultimate success of Margot vs Benintendi is not random probability. I am not missing the point. I just disagree, and it appears there are several other posters here who also give an edge to Benintendi. As I stated earlier, we will see won't we. I also don't think it's recency "bias". I look at everything these kids have done and do weight what they have done recently a little higher simply because trend lines are relevant also. What these kids did in high school is significant to me also, as well as what they did in college and / or in earlier years in the minors. By the way, possibly I'm wrong but I vaguely remember one of Benintendi's HR was to LF but almost all of them were to RF this year. Yes, even that is a consideration. It's not that people aren't noticing Benintendi but don't assume I'm not noticing Margot either. I just think the probability of the guy who appears to be the more mature hitter has a better chance of success. The guy who looks like he has already figured out how to drive the ball, which lots of players can't do even 3-4 years into their mlb career, has a better chance of success. The guy who appears to already know the strike zone extremely well and is able to work the count has an advantage as he climbs the ladder. I've stated that Margot's CS percentage is not that great and he hasn't really hit for average, OPS, wRC+ as well as many of you have implied for him to be rated as highly as he is. My conclusion is that he must be incredibly "toolsy" because the numbers do not indicate him to be the top 15 guy some people think he is. That is the unknown factor for me as I have seen very little of him on video. I have to take what I read into consideration and factor it the best I can. Scouts obviously love Margot. The fact that Margot doesn't strike out much ( has a good contact rate ) is of course good but it may well be mitigated by a propensity to swing early and an ability to hit fastballs. Benintendi doesn't strike out much either, particularly for a power hitter. Maybe the age advanced status is something I am under rating but I think I am given it proper weight. Maybe guys like Margot are pushed a little more agressively due to rule 5 considerations as compared to a Benintendi who started the minors at a higher level of development. Maybe the age advancement process is not all proven success at every level. Maybe the team just wants to see what they have got before they have to protect him or not in the rule 5. Maybe even that is a factor in moving some of these high school signees or younger up the ladder so quickly. I will be a whole lot more impressed when I see Margot able to hit mature pitching. I think it probably develops well but I'm still betting on Benintendi.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Oct 2, 2015 10:57:44 GMT -5
I will be a whole lot more impressed when I see Margot able to hit mature pitching. I think it probably develops well but I'm still betting on Benintendi. That is one amazing pair of sentences.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 2, 2015 14:23:06 GMT -5
I will be a whole lot more impressed when I see Margot able to hit mature pitching. I think it probably develops well but I'm still betting on Benintendi. That is one amazing pair of sentences. Yeah, it's like he forgot that Margot is two levels higher and is hitting more mature pitching.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 2, 2015 15:24:45 GMT -5
You guys are too hard on theavarnwayguy all the time. Ease up.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 2, 2015 15:37:44 GMT -5
You guys are too hard on theavarnwayguy all the time. Ease up. Please don't validate his persecution complex.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 2, 2015 17:47:44 GMT -5
If AA is mature pitching, he hasn't shown us he can hit that all that well yet. Top prospects usually hit better than a .271 BA with a .745 OPS. I was actually thinking AAA and MLB as mature pitching.
It's less a persecution complex as it is a complete astonishment that you guys are so self absorbed that you think you are right all the time. That you have "refuted" my position and I should just go away and cower in a corner. That you are the arbiters of all logic. It's the same crew most of the time.
It's no big deal. I'm actually pretty confident in this projection.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 2, 2015 18:30:03 GMT -5
If AA is mature pitching, he hasn't shown us he can hit that all that well yet. Top prospects usually hit better than a .271 BA with a .745 OPS. I was actually thinking AAA and MLB as mature pitching. It's less a persecution complex as it is a complete astonishment that you guys are so self absorbed that you think you are right all the time. ... No!! People disagree all the time. People even take the position you do. But none of them cite, again and again and again, at interminable length, the preposterously bad arguments that you make to support your position. The problem with the two sentences that you highlighted is that you are criticizing a man for only having hit against AA pitching, while championing a guy who has only hit against low-A pitching, and is slightly older. You see the problem with that? "so self absorbed that you think you are right all the time"? My god, look in the mirror.
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Post by jmei on Oct 2, 2015 18:32:46 GMT -5
Let's move on. Any further discussion on the topic will be deleted.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Oct 2, 2015 18:39:41 GMT -5
Just agree to disagree with people sometimes. It makes life a lot more pleasant. I'm so happy when I can get a life lesson mixed in with my baseball talk!
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 2, 2015 18:55:54 GMT -5
Chances are that this thread is going to have people slightly rooting against either one of these kids. Time to throw this one into Mount Doom.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 2, 2015 21:14:40 GMT -5
Naw, I'm rooting for Margot. It's cool.
It will be interesting to see how this develops though won't it.
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 2, 2015 21:37:26 GMT -5
Just agree to disagree with people sometimes. It makes life a lot more pleasant. No it doesn't!
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 20, 2015 18:57:42 GMT -5
Baseball America thinks Benintendi is the closest to the majors of all 2015 college players, "best pure hitter" and "2nd best power". They polled scouts and org people from all 30 teams and look what they said about Bentindindi: www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/10/baseball_america_names_boston.html#incart_riverI'm sure scouts from all 30 teams must have "preposterously bad arguments" to support their positions as well. Maybe the pro Benintendi side will get a little more street cred now.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 20, 2015 19:05:53 GMT -5
Baseball America thinks Benintendi is the closest to the majors of all 2015 college players, "best pure hitter" and "2nd best power". They polled scouts and org people from all 30 teams and look what they said about Bentindindi: www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/10/baseball_america_names_boston.html#incart_riverI'm sure scouts from all 30 teams must have "preposterously bad arguments" to support their positions as well. Maybe the pro Benintendi side will get a little more street cred now. Nope. We are all pro-Benintendi. We all love him. Most just love other people more. (Edit: to be fair, maybe that should be "many" and not necessarily "most") If a 2015 draftee had hit .271 .326 .419 .745 with great CF defense in AA at the age of 20 scouts from all 30 teams would be saying great great things about him. We've been over all this. That scouts love him is not new information. We all love him.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 20, 2015 22:06:14 GMT -5
If AA is mature pitching, he hasn't shown us he can hit that all that well yet. Top prospects usually hit better than a .271 BA with a .745 OPS. I was actually thinking AAA and MLB as mature pitching. It's less a persecution complex as it is a complete astonishment that you guys are so self absorbed that you think you are right all the time. That you have "refuted" my position and I should just go away and cower in a corner. That you are the arbiters of all logic. It's the same crew most of the time. It's no big deal. I'm actually pretty confident in this projection. I think it's more that people find some of your arguments self-contradictory. On the one hand, you tout Benintendi's having hit 31 HR this summer...75% of which came against collegiate (roughly Rookie-Ball to SSA-ball level talent) and SSA-ball pitchers, at 9 months older than Margot. Then, you talk about Margot needing to hit "more mature" pitching...even though he's faced pitchers effectively THREE levels above Benintendi *at an identical age* (and two levels' difference in their peak achievement). Now, I actually think Benintendi will be the better hitter, and probably the better all-around player in his prime. But I think Margot is the better prospect, because he's lower risk, having played well already in AA. It seems you're mistaking people busting your chops about your opinion with what's really going on: a lack of logical consistency that dramatically weakens your arguments. You'd almost assuredly be better off with "I just have a gut feeling on Benintendi" and leave it at that, rather than trying to rationalize the irrational.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 20, 2015 22:17:32 GMT -5
Baseball America thinks Benintendi is the closest to the majors of all 2015 college players, "best pure hitter" and "2nd best power". They polled scouts and org people from all 30 teams and look what they said about Bentindindi: www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/10/baseball_america_names_boston.html#incart_riverI'm sure scouts from all 30 teams must have "preposterously bad arguments" to support their positions as well. Maybe the pro Benintendi side will get a little more street cred now. Nope. We are all pro-Benintendi. We all love him. Most just love other people more. (Edit: to be fair, maybe that should be "many" and not necessarily "most") If a 2015 draftee had hit .271 .326 .419 .745 with great CF defense in AA at the age of 20 scouts from all 30 teams would be saying great great things about him. We've been over all this. That scouts love him is not new information. We all love him. Yeah, honestly...if JC player or really smart college jr (he'd have to have skipped a grade to be 20 at draft time) did what Margot did this year in AA, scouts would be losing their minds. Like I said, Benintendi has (I believe, and it's largely based on guy feeling combined with what I've seen of his hitting approach) maybe the higher ceiling, but Margot has proven himself at a level that is light-years from low-A ball. It's CW that AA is the first big separator for the wheat from chaff, and Margot's passed that test, while Benintendi hasn't even signed up for the class yet. Margot just is way lower risk, and his calling cards--speed and defense--are underrated relative to flashy offensive output. Regardless, I think they're very close, and I actually suspect Benintendi might pass Margot next year on his way to MLB. But for now, I'm going with the established guy, and excited to see them both next September.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2015 23:04:38 GMT -5
I'm not sure this discussion is relevant now, let alone in a few months when Margot is suiting up for the Rubberducks or the Missions.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 21, 2015 6:21:03 GMT -5
Baseball America thinks Benintendi is the closest to the majors of all 2015 college players, "best pure hitter" and "2nd best power". They polled scouts and org people from all 30 teams and look what they said about Bentindindi: www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/10/baseball_america_names_boston.html#incart_riverI'm sure scouts from all 30 teams must have "preposterously bad arguments" to support their positions as well. Maybe the pro Benintendi side will get a little more street cred now. All of these scouts were judging 2015 college players, not all Red Sox prospects. Even when Benintendi makes the Hall of Fame someday, you're still not right. Not right now at this point in time.
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