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Which prospect(s) will get the "bust" label?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 1, 2015 18:01:18 GMT -5
I realize that the word "bust" is a rather subjective word. Some might consider Yoan Moncada a bust if he puts up numbers equivalent to a fringe starters while other prospects like Sam Travis would be considered a success story.
With that in mind, there are, and will always be, players who just disappoint at the major league level (Barnes, Middlebrooks, Ranaudo come to mind).
The question that I have here is, what player(s) do you believe might fall into that trap of being considered a good-great prospect that new president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, should try to sell high on before they're exposed at the ML level?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 1, 2015 18:30:16 GMT -5
Abstain
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Post by Smittyw on Sept 1, 2015 18:32:24 GMT -5
What kind of horrible person starts a poll like this. 
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Post by pokeefe363 on Sept 1, 2015 18:34:05 GMT -5
Margot, Guerra, and Kopech standout to me as the expectations are very high, but all 3 have warts. Devers is another possibility as his floor is very low with the lack of defensive potential.
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Post by thegoo13 on Sept 1, 2015 18:42:02 GMT -5
Johnson for me. Expectations are reasonably lower for him but I just don't think he is nearly as good as the rest.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 1, 2015 18:52:18 GMT -5
Sorry I don't care to play
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 1, 2015 20:38:11 GMT -5
Not like I'm rooting for any kid to fail, but every time a kid "busts" we always hear how the team should have known their talent and missed their window to sell high. It's partly an exercise in not having hindsight. Plus, we always talk about the moon for a lot of these guys, but I'm interested in hearing the other side of it as well.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 1, 2015 20:40:47 GMT -5
This is kind of a crazy poll, because Moncada could bust and still be better than someone like Johnson.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 1, 2015 21:11:31 GMT -5
I think it's absolutely a fair question to ask. You want to evaluate your own talent, and find the right guys to trade away or else you end up like Ben Cherington not trading anyone away.
I picked 4
Devers
Margot
Johnson
Kopech
For Devers and Margot my reasoning is simple. Plate discipline is very important in the MLB, and is the most highly correlated with MLB success for prospects. You need to be able to look for a pitch, and either take a walk or crush that pitch, or MLB pitchers will eat you alive unless you have crazy hand eye coordination like Sandoval, Ichiro or Vlad, which Devers and Margot don't have. It isn't really a learnable skill either.
The success rate for low A pitching prospects is not good. I guess this would apply to Espinoza as well, but he's got ridiculous stuff that could probably play in AA right now. Kopech just isn't a good bet to succeed. Johnson, I've always thought was overrated. His stuff just isn't that great
I'm on the fence about Guerra but I really like all the other guys
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 1, 2015 21:17:41 GMT -5
I think it's absolutely a fair question to ask. You want to evaluate your own talent, and find the right guys to trade away or else you end up like Ben Cherington not trading anyone away. I picked 4 Devers Margot Johnson Kopech For Devers and Margot my reasoning is simple. Plate discipline is very important in the MLB, and is the most highly correlated with MLB success for prospects. You need to be able to look for a pitch, and either take a walk or crush that pitch, or MLB pitchers will eat you alive unless you have crazy hand eye coordination like Sandoval, Ichiro or Vlad, which Devers and Margot don't have. It isn't really a learnable skill either. The success rate for low A pitching prospects is not good. I guess this would apply to Espinoza as well, but he's got ridiculous stuff that could probably play in AA right now. Kopech just isn't a good bet to succeed. Johnson, I've always thought was overrated. His stuff just isn't that great I'm on the fence about Guerra but I really like all the other guys And since you're so eager to trade everyone, I would have loved to see what you would have suggested 2 years ago. |
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 1, 2015 21:33:53 GMT -5
I voted for Brian Johnson even though the expectations are fairly low for him to start with. I just see a lot of Vaughn Eshelman in Johnson.
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Post by klostrophobic on Sept 1, 2015 21:37:52 GMT -5
I voted Espinoza because he's a pitcher.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 1, 2015 22:03:09 GMT -5
Honestly, not a big fan of this sort of thing. Families of the players (and the players themselves) frequent this forum, and while we're not saying that everything needs to be sunshine and roses all the time, we're not really big fans of trying to pick out who's going to fail just for sport. That's why, for example, the "cut watch list" was removed years and years ago.
Not going to shut this down at this point, but just wanted to get that out there and make clear that this really isn't the kind of thing that's favored by the site's staff, moderators and ownership alike.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 1, 2015 22:36:32 GMT -5
A Sox Prospect bust site?
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 1, 2015 23:05:01 GMT -5
The bigger question right now is which one/ones of these prospects will be delt before next season. That will tell use who DD would vote for.
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Post by malynn19 on Sept 1, 2015 23:07:25 GMT -5
Not like I'm rooting for any kid to fail, but every time a kid "busts" we always hear how the team should have known their talent and missed their window to sell high. It's partly an exercise in not having hindsight. Plus, we always talk about the moon for a lot of these guys, but I'm interested in hearing the other side of it as well. I think you are, cause people like you rather be right then have the kid succeed and prove you wrong. And the reason we talk about the Moon is because the Red Sox have the best farm system in baseball. |
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Post by malynn19 on Sept 1, 2015 23:09:54 GMT -5
One more thing I refuse to vote and this should be taken down. If you want to open a poll like this go to the Yankee website, they have them all the time.
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Post by buttclown on Sept 1, 2015 23:19:17 GMT -5
I think if this discussion needs to happen, it should be rebranded as something like "which of our top prospects carries the highest degree of risk?" and remove the poll. That way, we can have the same sorts of conversations but without the implication that we are "trying to pick out who's going to fail just for sport" as Chris mentioned above
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Post by redsoxfan1994 on Sept 1, 2015 23:23:19 GMT -5
The bigger question right now is which one/ones of these prospects will be delt before next season. That will tell use who DD would vote for. This. Absolutely is the better way to frame this question. |
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,907
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2015 23:28:12 GMT -5
This is a pointless poll. It's asking people to guess, which one of these unlikely things is least unlikely?
The Sox have had a tremendous track record with prospects because of the emphasis they place on makeup.
Each one of these guys, individually, probably has a 60% or greater chance of not busting. That doesn't mean there will be no busts; if 10 guys have an average 65% success rate, three or four will bust. But nobody has any idea which three or four. Asking people for their opinion is really just a game of chance.
Having said that, in order to answer the question that was apparently the actual one this was supposed to raise, the one guy who stands out to me as having a somewhat higher chance of busting relative to his current stature is Guerra. There have been lots of super-slick-fielding low-minors SS whose gloves, by the time they got to MLB, were just plus rather than the projected plus-plus. His past struggles with plate discipline peg him, like WMB, as a guy who might disappoint as an MLB hitter.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 1, 2015 23:29:52 GMT -5
Is there another organization with their own version of "soxprospects" ?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 2, 2015 6:06:45 GMT -5
This is a pointless poll. It's asking people to guess, which one of these unlikely things is least unlikely? The Sox have had a tremendous track record with prospects because of the emphasis they place on makeup. Each one of these guys, individually, probably has a 60% or greater chance of not busting. That doesn't mean there will be no busts; if 10 guys have an average 65% success rate, three or four will bust. But nobody has any idea which three or four. Asking people for their opinion is really just a game of chance. Having said that, in order to answer the question that was apparently the actual one this was supposed to raise, the one guy who stands out to me as having a somewhat higher chance of busting relative to his current stature is Guerra. There have been lots of super-slick-fielding low-minors SS whose gloves, by the time they got to MLB, were just plus rather than the projected plus-plus. His past struggles with plate discipline peg him, like WMB, as a guy who might disappoint as an MLB hitter. This subject can be distasteful but I'll go out on a limb here. I vote Cody Kukuk and Jon Denney  . I would question if the Red Sox got their respective "makeups" correct. Prospects "bust" all the time, but I honestly think as far as the Red Sox top prospects go, I doubt any of them will really bust. Some may face career altering injuries or not quite live up to lofty expectations, but I think every one of those top guys will have themselves a major league career, and make a lot more money (if they haven't with their bonuses and signing contracts) already than I could make in many lifetimes, so if that's "busting", I hope my life can have some of that "busting" element. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 2, 2015 6:27:32 GMT -5
Not like I'm rooting for any kid to fail, but every time a kid "busts" we always hear how the team should have known their talent and missed their window to sell high. It's partly an exercise in not having hindsight. Plus, we always talk about the moon for a lot of these guys, but I'm interested in hearing the other side of it as well. I think you are, cause people like you rather be right then have the kid succeed and prove you wrong. And the reason we talk about the Moon is because the Red Sox have the best farm system in baseball. No. I'd rather be wrong. How is pondering which kids may flame out "distasteful"? Not every prospect makes it. It's a fact for every organization. I think Ball can still rebound and I think Brentz and Marrero are AAAA guys. This board doesn't have a problem with saying lower ranked prospects won't make the majors, so what's the difference? Again, no one is rooting for anyone to fail, but the truth is, at least one of them will. So, guessing ahead of time is wrong, but bashing Middlebrooks or bashing Cherington for not selling high which is complete hindsight isn't? The Red Sox new president made a name for himself by "winning"the Cabrera deal. If Miller and Maybin hit their potential then I don't think the trade would have been favorable for him. Personally, I like this for archiving. If no one thinks Benintendi will fail at the ML level and does, then no one should be screaming at Dombrowski for failing to sell high on the kid. I thought it was a fair question. |
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 2, 2015 6:32:33 GMT -5
This is a pointless poll. It's asking people to guess, which one of these unlikely things is least unlikely? The Sox have had a tremendous track record with prospects because of the emphasis they place on makeup. Each one of these guys, individually, probably has a 60% or greater chance of not busting. That doesn't mean there will be no busts; if 10 guys have an average 65% success rate, three or four will bust. But nobody has any idea which three or four. Asking people for their opinion is really just a game of chance. Having said that, in order to answer the question that was apparently the actual one this was supposed to raise, the one guy who stands out to me as having a somewhat higher chance of busting relative to his current stature is Guerra. There have been lots of super-slick-fielding low-minors SS whose gloves, by the time they got to MLB, were just plus rather than the projected plus-plus. His past struggles with plate discipline peg him, like WMB, as a guy who might disappoint as an MLB hitter. This is absolutely false. Even if you believe the emphasis on makeup helps, there's no way it makes a low minors pitcher like Kopech or Espinoza likely to succeed |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,780
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Post by cdj on Sept 2, 2015 6:40:16 GMT -5
Bust? All of those guys are future HOFers
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. I would question if the Red Sox got their respective "makeups" correct.